港股公司报告 | 公司点评 公司发布 25Q1 业绩公告 九兴控股（01836） 证券研究报告 25Q1 预计量增价减 由于高基数效应，公司收入同比减少 2.2%至 3.3 亿美元。 制造业务 25Q1 收入 3.2 亿美元，同比-1.8%，其中出货量同比+3.4%至 1210 万双，受运动类别所带动；ASP 同比-5.0%至 26.4 美元/双，主要由于平均 售价较低的运动产品订单占比较高所致。 生产工艺与效率：具备高端联名款和限量款生产能力，快反能力强，能够 迅速响应客户订单。 公司 2024 年已实现经营利润率 OPM 约 11.9%，提前达成三年规划 （2023-2025）目标。 公司已建议支付 6000 万美元现金作为 2024 年特别股息，并仍承诺于 2025 年及 2026 年除维持在通常水平 70%的派息率派付定期股息（包括末期股息 及中期股息）外，将通过结合股份回购及派付特别股息的方式向股东返还 每年最多 6000 万美元的额外现金。 具备开发设计能力及核心生产工艺，产能全球布局 开发设计能力：公司拥有强大的研发能力和自主设计能力，能够快速响应 市场需求，开发高附加值产品。 归母净利润 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 77.61 per share based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the successful launch of the Kuaishou Keling 2.0 model, which is expected to empower various industries such as advertising, UGC, and film creativity [1][4]. - The company has shown significant growth in its AI capabilities, with a user base exceeding 22 million and a monthly active user (MAU) growth of over 25 times since the launch of Keling AI [4]. - The Keling 2.0 model has improved semantic response capabilities, dynamic quality, and visual aesthetics, positioning the company as a leader in the global video generation market [4]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company is projected to be CNY 177 billion, CNY 194 billion, and CNY 229 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][5]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from CNY 113.47 billion in 2023 to CNY 153.30 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.1% [5][8]. - The report anticipates a gross margin improvement from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.2% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a PE valuation method, maintaining a 16x PE for 2025, leading to a reasonable valuation of CNY 3,107 billion or HKD 3,345 billion [6][7]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from CNY 1.48 in 2023 to CNY 4.96 in 2026, demonstrating strong earnings growth potential [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, indicating a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a projected EBITA of 170388 million yuan for FY25, showing a slight increase of 3.25% year-over-year [11]. Business Segments - Taobao Group is valued using a PE method, with a projected market value of 15686 million yuan based on a 10x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, valued at 8500 million yuan using a 6x PS ratio [21]. - The International Digital Commerce Group is still in the expansion phase and is valued at 1691 million yuan using a PS method [21]. - Cainiao Group is projected to have a stable profit level, valued at 121 billion yuan based on an 11x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Local Life Group is valued at 1510 million yuan using a PS method, reflecting its current non-profitable status [21]. - The Entertainment Group is valued at 449 million yuan based on a PS method, considering the valuation of Alibaba Pictures [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a total revenue of 221874 million yuan in Q4 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.57% [11]. AI and Cloud Strategy - The AI cloud demand is rapidly increasing, with a tenfold growth in model calls every six months. The number of active customers has surged from 100 to over 40,000, solidifying Alibaba Cloud's position as the leading player in the domestic cloud computing market [7]. - The company is enhancing its multi-modal large model capabilities, with recent releases achieving industry-leading performance in video generation and cross-modal perception [7]. Business Segments Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the market value of various business units, including Taobao Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Cainiao Group, with respective valuation methods such as P/E and P/S [21]. - The Taobao Group is valued at 15686 million yuan based on a P/E ratio of 10x, while the Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at 8500 million yuan using a P/S ratio of 6x [21]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 17, 2025, is 108.7 HKD, with a 52-week high of 145.9 HKD and a low of 64.41 HKD [3]. - The report notes a strong absolute performance of 63.31% over the past 12 months, indicating positive market sentiment [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting a price of HK$24.20 from the current price of HK$17.70 [1]. Core Insights - Guming Holdings is positioned as a leading 4A (Available, Adorable, Affordable, Addicted) freshly-made beverage brand in China, focusing on the growing demand for fresh, convenient, and cost-effective drinks, particularly in lower-tier cities [1][6]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and utilizes digitalization to enhance operational efficiency, aiming for steady national expansion [3][6]. - Guming is the second-largest freshly-made tea beverage brand in China by GMV, holding a market share of 9.1%, and the largest in the mass market segment with a 17.7% share [1][6]. Company Overview - Guming Holdings operates a network of 9,914 stores across 17 provinces in China, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities, where 41% of its stores are located in rural areas [1][6][29]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of RMB 10.84 billion, RMB 12.84 billion, and RMB 14.42 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 23%, 18%, and 12% [1][4]. - Guming's net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 2.19 billion, and RMB 2.38 billion over the same period, with a diluted EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 0.90 in 2025 to RMB 1.14 in 2027 [1][4]. Industry Insights - The freshly-made beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023, significantly outpacing the overall beverage market's growth of 9.4% [2][13]. - The market for freshly-made beverages is projected to reach RMB 11,634 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [13]. - Freshly-made tea and coffee dominate the market, with their combined market size expected to grow substantially, reflecting changing consumer preferences towards higher quality and fresh products [13][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [5] Core Viewpoints - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for Q1 2025, projecting a decrease of no more than 25% compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to rising production costs and decreased efficiency [1] - The manufacturing business showed stable growth with Q1 revenue around $2.03 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while retail revenue decreased by 5.4% [2] - The company holds an optimistic outlook for the mid to long-term development, expecting a 6% compound annual growth rate in the global sports goods industry from 2024 to 2029, with the market size projected to reach $548 billion by 2029 [3] - The company is implementing organizational restructuring and cost-reduction plans to enhance overall profitability, while also focusing on digital smart manufacturing management [3] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of approximately $100 million for Q1 2025, with a reduction of up to 25% compared to the previous year [1] - The manufacturing segment's revenue is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year, while retail sales are projected to decline by 5.4% [2] Long-term Growth Prospects - The company is confident in its sustainable growth potential, driven by strong demand for quality suppliers in the global footwear and sports industry [3] - Despite short-term uncertainties such as global tariffs and inflation, the company believes its strategies will solidify its core operational strengths [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to $8.4 billion, $8.9 billion, and $9.5 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $400 million, $430 million, and $480 million [4] - Corresponding EPS estimates are revised to $0.25, $0.27, and $0.30, with PE ratios of 6x, 5x, and 5x [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is a leading global provider of digital content asset protection and transaction SaaS services, with a business model based on subscription services and a focus on maximizing IP value through various value-added services [1][6] - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with revenue increasing from HKD 120 million in 2018 to HKD 2.4 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 65% [6][11] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rise of AIGC technology and increasing demand for content protection and identification [6][11] Company Overview - The company was founded in 2005 in Silicon Valley and went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2018 [11] - The company has a diversified business model that includes subscription services and various value-added services, focusing on long-term stable service to top content providers globally [14][15] - The major shareholder is Yangbin Bernard Wang, holding 18.30% of the shares [3][18] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.4 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in both the US and China [24] - The company expects to achieve revenues of HKD 2.8 billion, HKD 3.5 billion, and HKD 4.5 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 186 million, HKD 251 million, and HKD 342 million [7][24] - The company has maintained a gross margin above 40% from 2022 to 2024, with a decrease in expense ratio to 25% in 2024 [32][34] Industry Situation - The rise of streaming platforms has significantly increased the demand for content protection, with subscription users growing rapidly in the US [36][39] - Domestic policies are increasingly encouraging cultural exports, enhancing awareness of copyright protection [45][48] - The company is positioned to leverage the growing need for copyright protection as the digital content landscape evolves [6][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6] Core Views - The company is a leading provider of "technology + full entertainment" services in China, with a strong market position in online ticketing and film distribution, holding a 60% market share in movie ticketing [1][7] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 14% to 4.08 billion yuan, primarily due to a lack of quality film supply and a significant drop in the overall box office [2][25] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company is actively returning capital to shareholders, with a buyback of 50 million HKD and a dividend of 0.32 HKD per share, corresponding to a yield of approximately 4.3% [3][26] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 182 million yuan, a decrease of 80% year-on-year, mainly due to increased costs associated with ticketing and poor performance of key films [3][26] - The company expects revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 4.80 billion, 5.41 billion, and 5.97 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 17%, 13%, and 10% respectively [4][29] Market Outlook - The overall film market is expected to recover in 2025, driven by the release of "Nezha 2," with an estimated total box office of 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [4][29] - The company has a robust pipeline of upcoming films, with several titles already scheduled for release, indicating potential for improved performance in key release periods [27][28] Competitive Position - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the online ticketing market, with a market share of approximately 60%, supported by significant shareholder resources and partnerships with major platforms like Tencent and Meituan [20][21] - In the content service sector, the company has increased its market share in film distribution, achieving nearly 50% in 2023, despite challenges in 2024 [21][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a target price of HK$ 7.20, indicating a potential upside of 46.9% from the current price of HK$ 4.90 [3][10][18]. Core Views - The 1Q25 results are generally in line with expectations, with an encouraging trend observed in March 2025. The outlook for 2Q25E remains cautiously optimistic due to potential policy support and brand-specific growth momentum [1][10]. - Xtep is expected to benefit from a consumption trade-down effect amidst macroeconomic risks, with management maintaining positive sales growth guidance for FY25E [10][11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and preparing for a direct-to-consumer (DTC) transformation, with plans to repurchase stores in the coming years [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 14,312 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 1,372 million, reflecting a growth of 3.6% [2][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 0.48, with a net profit margin of 9.6% [2][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 10x, compared to the target P/E of 14x for FY25E, indicating that the stock is undervalued relative to its historical average [10][18]. Market Performance - Xtep's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 12,910.7 million, with an average turnover of HK$ 82.9 million over the past three months [4][10]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 13.9% over the past month and 14.0% over the past three months, indicating a challenging market environment [6][10]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholder is Mr. Ding Shui Po and family, holding 49.2% of the shares, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co with 4.6% [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust growth in its core business, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, achieving operating revenue of 337.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.94%, and a net profit of 35.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158.4% [1] - The core local business showed steady growth, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, and operating profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 60.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant optimization in profit margins [1][3] - New business segments are solidifying market positions and expanding overseas, with Q4 2024 new business revenue reaching 22.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and a substantial reduction in operating losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Core Local Business - Instant delivery orders and in-store travel orders saw significant growth, with Q4 2024 core local business revenue at 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year [1] - The company implemented various initiatives to enhance customer demand and support merchants, contributing to the growth in low-tier cities [2] New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue reached 22.92 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with a notable reduction in operating losses from 48.3 billion yuan to 21.8 billion yuan [2] - The international expansion strategy includes launching Keeta in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with rapid growth in user base and order volume [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 37.8% in Q4 2024, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved margins in grocery retail and operational efficiency [3] - Operating profit for Q4 2024 was 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280.7%, with core local business profitability significantly contributing to this growth [3] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 42.98 billion yuan, 52.73 billion yuan, and 62.56 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 51.13 billion yuan, 60.88 billion yuan, and 70.71 billion yuan [4][5]