Q1 业绩下滑收窄，政策拉动内需有望企稳回升。25Q1 公司实现收 入 6.54 亿元，同比-5.29%，24Q4 公司营收同比-16.82%，25Q1 公 司实现归母净利润 1.32 亿元，同比-6.59%，24Q4 公司归母净利润 同比-44.42%，收入、利润下滑均收窄。25 年 1 月国家发展改革委 发布《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换 新政策的通知》，加大实施设备更新贷款贴息，并加大对个人消费 者在开展旧房装修等过程中购置所用物品补贴力度。家具企业有 望借此机会参与设备更新，在国家政策的支持、消费市场动能拉 动下，实现设备自动化升级，家具机械内需有望筑底回暖。公司 作为国内家具机械头部厂商，业绩有望迎来共振向上。 单季度毛利率同环比提升，看好海外业务拉动盈利能力提升。25Q1 公司毛利率为 30.93%，同比提升 0.09pct，环比提升 0.30pct，行 业需求疲软下，盈利能力逆势上行。24 年公司海外业务毛利率为 36.70%，远高于国内的 29.89%，海外业务盈利能力更强。公司持 续加大海外市场开拓力度，通过参加意大利米兰、俄罗斯莫斯科 等国际展会，拓展海外品牌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues increasing from 891.76 million in 2024 to 1642.01 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.65% [5][7] - Net profit is expected to rise from 208.58 million in 2024 to 377.76 million in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory with a CAGR of about 28.05% [5][7] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 39.03% in 2024 to 44.98% in 2027, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [5][7] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 891.76 million - 2025: 1118.01 million (growth rate: 25.37%) - 2026: 1361.01 million (growth rate: 21.74%) - 2027: 1642.01 million (growth rate: 20.65%) [5][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 208.58 million - 2025: 241.55 million (growth rate: 15.81%) - 2026: 295.02 million (growth rate: 22.13%) - 2027: 377.76 million (growth rate: 28.05%) [5][7] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - PE ratio is projected to decrease from 45.73 in 2024 to 25.25 in 2027, indicating improved valuation metrics [5][7] - PB ratio is expected to decline from 4.92 in 2024 to 3.91 in 2027, reflecting a more attractive investment proposition [5][7] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow is forecasted to decrease from 263.31 million in 2024 to 226.69 million in 2025, before increasing to 424.05 million by 2027 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 results that met expectations, with total revenue of 46.01 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 0.25%, and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 21.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 90.5% [7] - The company plans to acquire Lumina Gold Company for approximately 581 million Canadian dollars, which will add a gold project to its multi-metal portfolio [7] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 14.77 billion yuan, 16.77 billion yuan, and 18.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 214.3 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 0.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 14.77 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 9.1% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 0.69 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 18.0% [5] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 18.0% [5]

| 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.33 | | 资产负债率% | 7.72 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 543/262 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 118.63 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 155.00/69.52 | | 市净率 | 12.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.13 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 31,119 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,288.41/9,855.20 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 12-29 01-29 02-28 03-31 -50% 0% 50% 100% 华大九天 沪深 ...

➢ 基本盘业务稳健，积极发展 AI、卫星通信、量子业务。 中国电信（601728.SH）2025 年一季报点评 经营稳健，战新业务驱动长期价值增长 2025 年 04 月 28 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 25 日，中国电信发布 2025 年一季度财报：营业收入 1,345 亿元，同比增长 0.01%；归母净利润 89 亿元，同比增长 3.1%。 25Q1 服务收入 1,247 亿元，同比增长 0.3%，环比增长 4.6%。1）移动、固网 业务稳健发展。移动通信业务：移动用户数达 4.29 亿户，净增 495 万户，5G 用 户数达 2.7 亿户，渗透率提升至 62.0%，手机上网总流量同比增长 14.2%，DOU （户均流量）达 20.4GB，同比增长 9.1%。固网及智慧家庭业务：宽带用户数达 1.98 亿户，净增 67 万户。千兆宽带用户渗透率约 30%，智慧家庭收入同比增长 11.5%，持续受益于数字化升级需求。2）第二曲线业务高速增长。IDC 收入 95 亿元，同比增长 10.4%，24 年全年增速为 7.3%；智能收入同比增长 151.6%、 视联网同比增长 58.4%、卫星通信同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant strategic effectiveness, with ongoing investments in content creation. Despite short-term profit impacts due to increased content spending, the long-term potential for high-quality content is expected to strengthen the company's leading position in the media sector [7]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 3.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan, down 61.63% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.90 billion yuan, a decline of 12.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.80% year-on-year [7]. - The company has successfully launched a variety of high-quality content, including 160 variety shows and 27 key dramas in 2024, maintaining its market leadership in the industry [7]. - The overseas user base has doubled, with the international app revenue increasing from 62 million yuan to 141 million yuan, and downloads rising from 130 million to 261 million [7]. - The integration of technology and AI in content production has been emphasized, with the establishment of an AI application platform enhancing the efficiency of content creation across various formats [7]. Financial Forecast Summary - Projected financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.08 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.81 billion yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 6.57% in 2025 [2][9]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.36 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.11 billion yuan in 2027, with a profit growth rate of 26.14% in 2025 [2][9]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 29.03% in 2024 to 29.71% in 2027 [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 1.13 yuan in 2027 [2][9].

25 年 1-2 月行业数据向好，后续季度报表有望好转。根据机床工 具工业协会数据，25 年 1-2 月金属切削机床行业营收同比增长 12.1%，金属加工机床新签订单同比增长 26.2%，在手订单同比增 长 15.2%，行业数据有所好转。根据新华社信息，在 4 月 18 日举 行的国务院常务会议上提出"要锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆 周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优 结构提质量，做强国内大循环。"在经济刺激政策推动下行业景气 度有望继续回暖。考虑公司收入确认有一定滞后性，后续季度报 表有望好转。 四期产能逐步投放，关注新品的未来成长前景。公司四期产能建 设持续推进，设计产能 7 亿，预计 25 年上半年投产。伴随产能扩 张，公司将有更多新品投放市场，包括适用于人形机器人减速器、 丝杠加工的卧式车床系列产品等，未来有较好成长前景。 盈利预测、估值与评级 预计公司 25 至 27 年分别实现归母净利润 3.7/4.27/4.83 亿元， 对应当前 PE18X/15X/13X，考虑公司后续有望受益行业景气度复 苏，新品成长前景较好,维持"增持"评级。 业绩摘要 公司 2025 年 4 月 2 ...

电力设备/电池 骆驼股份（601311.SH） 主业经营稳定，预计未来三年分红比例不低于 50% 2025 年 04 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 8.28 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 9.63/6.82 | | 总市值(亿元) | 97.14 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 97.14 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.73 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.73 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 109.22 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 骆驼股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《一季度业绩快报超预期，主营业务 经 营 扎 实 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.11 《收入稳定增长，海外布局持续推进 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.10.27 《国内业务稳步增长，出海贡献增量 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.20 殷晟路（分析师） 陈诺（联系人） yinshenglu@kysec.cn ...

开润股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 300577） 公司点评 业绩增长亮眼，盈利能力有望进一步提升 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-4-28 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 19.94 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 30.99/15.20 | | 总股本（百万股） | 240 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 140 | | 流通股比例（%） | 58.48 | | 总市值（亿元） | 48 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 28 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 开润股份 沪深300 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 1.开润股 ...