冠盛股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 605088） 公司点评 25Q1 业绩超预期，韧性与弹性兼备 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-04-28 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 32.20 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 45.00/16.50 | | 总股本（百万股） | 183 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 178 | | 流通股比例（%） | 97.17 | | 总市值（亿元） | 59 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 57 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -41% -10% 21% 52% 83% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 冠盛股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈佳敏 执业证书号：S0010524040001 电话：13913026286 邮箱：chenjiamin@hazq.com 主要观点： | le_Profit] ⚫[Tab 重要财务指标 | | | | 单位:百万元 | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a recovery in the manufacturing sector due to economic stimulus policies [5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in profits in 2024, with a revenue of 759 million RMB, down 4.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 107 million RMB, down 32.26% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a strong recovery with a revenue of 222 million RMB, up 30.48% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29 million RMB, up 70% year-on-year [2][3]. - The overall tool segment saw a revenue increase of 57.09% in 2024, indicating potential for future profitability as the company focuses on expanding its product offerings and improving performance [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 39.46%, down 6.01 percentage points, and a net margin of 14.06%, down 5.79 percentage points, reflecting the pressure from declining sales volumes in key product categories [3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 153 million RMB, 191 million RMB, and 241 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23X, 19X, and 15X [5][10]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the tool industry is expected to be a priority sector for cyclical recovery, driven by improved downstream demand and the company's ongoing product enhancements [3][5]. - The company is actively increasing its investment in new product development, particularly in integrated tools and tool systems, which is expected to help it reach a breakeven point and contribute positively to earnings [4].

经营分析 行业竞争激烈面临价格压力，公司一季度利润率承压。根据机床 工具工业协会数据，24 年机床工具行业实现营收 10407 亿元，同 比下降 5.2%，实现利润总额 265 亿元，同比下降 76.6%，主要由 于行业竞争较为激烈，利润空间持续收窄。我们认为受此影响， 公司 24 年部分新签订单也面临价格压力，导致 1Q25 毛利率出现 下降，公司 1Q25 毛利率为 21.11%，同比下降 4.84pcts，净利率 最终同比下降 1.9pcts 至 10.78%。 25 年 1-2 月行业数据向好，后续季度报表有望好转。根据机床工 具工业协会数据，25 年 1-2 月金属切削机床行业营收同比增长 12.1%，金属加工机床新签订单同比增长 26.2%，在手订单同比增 长 15.2%，行业数据有所好转。根据新华社信息，在 4 月 18 日举 行的国务院常务会议上提出"要锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆 周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优 结构提质量，做强国内大循环。"在经济刺激政策推动下行业景气 度有望继续回暖。考虑公司收入确认有一定滞后性，后续季度报 表有望好转。 四期产能逐步投放，关注新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company experienced a 1.8% year-on-year decline in operating revenue due to fluctuations in the bond market in the first quarter. Investment-related income decreased by 15.9%, with fair value changes dropping by 89.0%. However, insurance service revenue grew by 3.9% year-on-year, reaching 695.5 billion yuan [1] - The individual life insurance channel showed steady growth, with premium income of 82.87 billion yuan, and the proportion of participating insurance in new business premiums increased significantly by 16.1 percentage points to 18.2% [2] - The property insurance segment saw a 1.0% increase in premium income, totaling 63.108 billion yuan, while the combined ratio (COR) improved by 0.6 percentage points to 97.4% [2] - The company's investment strategy demonstrated resilience, maintaining a net investment yield of 0.8% year-on-year, despite market volatility. Total investment yield decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.0% [3] - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027, projecting EPS of 4.77, 4.90, and 5.08 yuan per share, with current stock prices corresponding to P/EV ratios of 0.46, 0.40, and 0.35 [3] Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 412.823 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.16% increase from 2024 [4] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 45.924 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.14% [4] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 4.77 yuan for 2025, with a steady increase projected in subsequent years [4] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.89 in 2023 to 6.46 in 2025, indicating potential undervaluation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a mild recovery in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 18.53 billion yuan (YoY +4.0%) and net profit at 1.926 billion yuan (YoY +9.44%) [1]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a strategic shift in its domestic business to enhance profitability [3]. - The innovation and overseas business segments are showing strong growth, contributing to over 50% of total revenue in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 92.496 billion yuan (YoY +3.53%) and a net profit of 11.977 billion yuan (YoY -15.1%), with a gross margin of 43.83% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 56.19% [1]. Business Segments - The overseas revenue in 2024 was 31.895 billion yuan, up 10.1%, accounting for 34.48% of total revenue, with significant growth in non-video products [2]. - The innovation business generated 22.484 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 21.2% and representing 24% of total revenue, with notable growth in various segments such as robotics and automotive electronics [2]. Domestic Market Adjustments - The domestic PBG revenue was 13.467 billion yuan in 2024, down 12.29%, affected by local fiscal pressures [3]. - The EBG revenue was 17.651 billion yuan, down 1.09%, while SMBG revenue was 11.971 billion yuan, down 5.58% [3]. - The company is actively managing inventory levels with distributors to promote healthy channel development [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain operational resilience and long-term growth driven by industry digitalization, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 13.237 billion, 14.517 billion, and 16.664 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 20, 18, and 16 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, maintained from previous assessments [5][15]. Core Views - The company reported a 4.45% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to 370 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.13% to 37 million yuan [8][11]. - The company is experiencing a stabilization in operations, with improvements in same-store sales and contributions from acquisitions [2][11]. - The company plans to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, despite a high short-term closure rate, which is expected to ease as same-store revenue recovers [2][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of approximately 25.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to seasonal revenue fluctuations and increased depreciation from the Wuhan factory [2][11]. - The company maintained good cost control, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreasing by 1.0 and 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% and 7.5%, respectively [2][11]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 10.5%, reflecting stable profitability [2][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments in Q1 2025 showed the following year-on-year changes: rice products +2.6%, filling products +11.4%, purchased food +3.7%, packaging and auxiliary materials +3.4%, and service fees -14.7% [11]. - Franchise income increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and group meal business revenue grew by 11.7%, driven by rapid growth in new retail and restaurant chain channels [11]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 1.83 billion, 1.99 billion, and 2.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.4%, 8.6%, and 8.0% [3][15]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 250 million, 270 million, and 300 million yuan, with a projected decline of 8.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 8.0% and 8.1% in 2026 and 2027 [3][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][15]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its 2024 performance with a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 started strong with a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, representing a 10.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue and net profit through 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 25.54 billion yuan, 27.63 billion yuan, and 29.45 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.3%, 8.2%, and 6.6% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, marking a 20.2% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit by 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from the aged raw liquor segment reached 18.09 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17.3% year-on-year, driven by both volume and price increases [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure, with significant contributions from its premium products, particularly in the domestic market [2][4]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the lower-priced bottled liquor segment to capture additional market share [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with a focus on marketing activities during key festive periods to boost sales [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 25.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.07 billion yuan, indicating a continued positive outlook despite a slight adjustment in previous forecasts [4][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-600 yuan price range, leveraging its brand strength and distribution channels [4].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月28日 市场环境影响广告主需求，2024 年收入下滑 3%。1）2024 年，公司营业收入 40.7 亿元，同比下滑 3.2%，主要由于客户结构变化以及市场环境影响；归 母净利润 0.51 亿元，同比下降 44.5%，其中包括 0.76 亿的信用减值损失和 0.1 亿的资产减值损失。毛利率同比下降 0.9 个百分点至 17.2%；费用率整 体下降 0.1 个百分点至 13.6%。2）单看第四季度，公司收入 10.2 亿元，同 比下降 1.1%，降幅环比收窄 0.8 个百分点；归母净利润-0.1 亿元，同比增 长 29.9%。 红人营销平台效率提升，持续完善红人经济产业布局。1）主业红人营销平 台方面，活跃客户与红人数持续提升；客户方面，截至 2024 年末，WEIQ 累 计注册商家客户数 20.8 万，同比增长 8423 个；从红人方面看，红人账户累 计数量达 346.6 万，其中专职红人账户数/MCN 机构数分别为 212.7/1.91 万, 同比增长 30.9%/9.8%。此外，公司还持续通过数据产品、技术工具提升红人 商业化的效率。2）新业务方面，公司持续完善在红人经济 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月28日 宇通客车（600066.SH） 优于大市 盈利能力稳健，一季度净利润同比增长 15% 一季度整体销量同比提升，净利润同比增长 15%。2025 年一季度宇通客车实 现营业收入为 64.2 亿元，同比-3.0%，归母净利润为 7.55 亿元，同比+14.9%， 扣非净利润为 6.42 亿元，同比+12.49%；25Q1 宇通客车实现销量 9011 台， 同比+16.59%，整体来看，得益于费用管控持续、减值冲回、销量提升等因 素，宇通客车业绩持续释放。 盈利能力稳健，销量结构有望逐步优化。具体来看，25Q1 应收回款减值冲回 3.17 亿元，一定程度增厚利润；25Q1 销售毛利率 18.9%，同比有所下滑主要 系 1）会计准则变动影响（销售费用中售后服务费纳入成本核算）；2）销售 结构变化（因订单交付节奏波动原因，25Q1 宇通客车出口 2057 台，同比 -20.8%，新能源客车出口 280 台，同比-36.9%)，另外 25Q1 轻客产品同比提 升近 10pct 至 19.4%，25Q1 公司净利率 11.8%，同比+1.8pct 盈利能力稳定； 现金流层面，25Q ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][36] Core Views - The company has abundant orders on hand and is focused on becoming a platform enterprise for domain controllers, benefiting from new products and customer projects [1][3] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.968 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, with a net profit of 772 million, up 26.8% year-on-year [1][8] - The company aims to optimize its product structure towards higher value products such as domain controllers and efuse, with expectations of significant increases in per-vehicle value [2][27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.374 billion, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 206 million, down 6.0% year-on-year [1][8] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 27.0%, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.9%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [21][24] - The company’s four expense rates decreased to 10.3% in Q1 2025, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability through cost reduction [2][24] Product and Market Development - The company has secured new projects with major clients such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, with an expected total lifecycle sales volume of over 120 million units [3][31] - The efuse product has achieved mass production domestically and has gained market share with major clients, marking a significant technological achievement [19][31] - The company is expanding its global footprint, with a focus on increasing its international sales and production capabilities [34][35] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue diversifying its customer base, reducing reliance on a few major clients, and expanding its product line to meet diverse customer needs [32][36] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 7.2 billion, with a net profit of 1.01 billion, reflecting a growth strategy focused on high-value products and global market expansion [4][36] - The company is committed to technological innovation and collaboration with partners to enhance its competitive edge in the automotive electronics sector [28][36]