Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both H-shares and A-shares of the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.684 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 24.49% to 377 million RMB [7]. - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain revenue growth despite a decline in construction income, driven by increased waste processing and steam supply [7]. - Cost reduction strategies have led to a decrease in operating costs by 7.57%, resulting in improved gross and net profit margins [7]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational metrics, with a capacity utilization rate of 97.27% and a significant increase in steam supply [7]. - Free cash flow has increased, supporting stable dividend payouts, with a mid-year dividend of 0.1 RMB per share [7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for 2025 to be 3.593 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 649.61 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 11.03% [1][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 0.47 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.38 for H-shares [1][8]. - The company is projected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 8.09% by 2027, indicating strong profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook with expectations of over 20% growth in net profit for the year [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year profit increase of 12.2%, aligning with expectations, while the New Business Value (NBV) grew by 22.9%, confirming the advantages of its dividend transformation strategy [2][6]. - The overall performance was impacted by a significant reduction in total investment income, which decreased by 155 billion HKD [3]. - The life insurance segment showed a NBV growth of 22.9%, although the growth rate was lower than industry peers due to the impact of the dividend insurance transformation [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first half of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.2% to 6.76 billion HKD, primarily benefiting from a tax reduction of 6.5 billion HKD [3]. - The total investment income saw a decline of 155 billion HKD, with various segments showing mixed results: life insurance profit up by 5.5%, domestic property insurance up by 84.9%, while overseas property insurance down by 15.1% [3]. Life Insurance Analysis - The NBV growth of 22.9% was mainly affected by the transformation towards dividend insurance, with the margin increasing by 3.1 percentage points to 21.6% [4]. - Individual insurance channel NBV rose by 22.5%, despite a 2.3% decline in new premium income, while the bancassurance channel saw a 23.9% increase in NBV with a 15.2% rise in new premium income [4]. Property Insurance Analysis - The combined ratio (COR) improved by 1.5 percentage points to 95.5%, indicating strong performance, with gross premiums increasing by 3.1% [5]. - The annualized net investment return rate was 3.11%, down by 0.36 percentage points, with total investment income decreasing by 41.6% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates a net profit growth of over 20% for the full year, supported by a low profit base in the second half and improving investment conditions since Q3 [6]. - The estimated price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio for 2025 is projected at 0.33X [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 18.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 10.32 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 9.8% to HKD 706 million [1][2] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products, as well as cigarette exports, while the net profit growth is attributed to improved profitability in cigarette and tobacco leaf exports and a significant reduction in financing costs by 28% [1][2] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, representing a 27% increase [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tobacco Leaf Imports: Revenue increased by 23.5% to HKD 8.4 billion, with an import volume of 97,900 tons (+2.5%) and an average import price of HKD 85,800 per ton (+20.5%). The gross margin decreased to 8.2% due to cost increases outpacing sales price increases [1] - Tobacco Leaf Exports: Revenue rose by 25.9% to HKD 1.16 billion, with export volume of 38,500 tons (+12.7%) and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton (+11.7%). The gross margin improved to 5.5% [2] - Cigarette Exports: Revenue increased by 0.8% to HKD 550 million, with export volume declining by 7.9% to 1.019 billion sticks, while the average export price rose by 9.4% to HKD 0.54 per stick. The gross margin improved to 25.7% [2] - New Tobacco Exports: Revenue fell by 66.5% to HKD 15 million, with export volume down by 65.4% to 81 million sticks, primarily due to geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes [3] - Brazilian Operations: Revenue decreased by 50.3% to HKD 195 million, with export volume down by 34.8% to 7,900 tons, affected by extreme weather and product mix changes [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% [1][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the same years, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 financial results slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, up 0.5% [1][7]. - Domestic travel demand has steadily released since Q2 2025, and the inbound and international business continues to show high growth, supported by optimized marketing expenses and effective personnel cost control [1][7]. - The new large share buyback authorization has effectively boosted market confidence, and the outbound and international business is expected to be a core growth driver in the long term [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company is projected to achieve a main revenue of 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 9.92 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 632% [2][9]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 27.35 yuan, with a PE ratio of 18.5 [2][10]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation travel, business travel management, and other services for Q2 2025 was 6.23 billion, 5.40 billion, 1.08 billion, 690 million, and 1.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +21.2%, +10.8%, +5.3%, +9.3%, and +31.0% [7]. - The overall gross margin for the period was 81.0%, a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to the increasing proportion of lower-margin international business [7]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the outbound and international business is expected to continue driving growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [1][7]. - The company has approved a new share buyback plan with a total repurchase scale not exceeding 5 billion USD, which, along with dividends, is expected to provide continuous investment returns to shareholders [1][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.15 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a turnaround in profitability in Q2 2025, achieving a revenue of CNY 466.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit of CNY 18.8 billion, compared to a loss of CNY 6.7 billion in the same period last year [1][6]. - The company is expected to continue its high-quality growth, particularly in the basic building materials sector, amidst a competitive environment, while the special fiber cloth segment is anticipated to drive growth in the new materials sector [1][6]. Summary by Sections Basic Building Materials Division - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from the basic building materials division was CNY 372.0 billion, a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year, but the profit turned positive with a total profit of CNY 1.6 billion, reflecting a gross margin increase of 7.3 percentage points to 16.1% [2]. - The sales volume of cement and clinker was 97.78 million tons, down 14.1% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the national average decline of 4.3% [2]. - The average price of cement and clinker was CNY 249.8 per ton, up 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight decrease compared to the average price of CNY 250.6 per ton in 2024 [2]. New Materials Division - The new materials division achieved a revenue of CNY 267.6 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, with a gross margin of 23.3%, down 0.4 percentage points [3]. - Sales volumes for fiberglass, wind turbine blades, lithium battery separators, and carbon fiber increased by 1.1%, 102.9%, 59.6%, and 51.2% respectively, while their average prices saw changes of +12.3%, -9.7%, -23.7%, and -16.6% [3]. Engineering Services Division - The engineering services division reported a revenue of CNY 213.1 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, but the overall gross margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 16.0% [4]. - The core subsidiary, China National Materials International, signed new orders worth CNY 41.2 billion, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with overseas orders growing by 19% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a profit forecast of CNY 42 billion, CNY 51 billion, and CNY 61 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.55, CNY 0.68, and CNY 0.80 [5]. - The target price has been raised by 28% to HKD 6.15, based on a P/E ratio of 10.2x for 2025, which is a 15% premium over the historical average [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.23, while the closing price as of August 28 was HKD 4.36 [1][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 were reported at RMB 9.15 billion and RMB 1 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.4% and 46.7%, which aligns with the performance forecast [5][6]. - The company is undergoing a phase of inventory clearance, which is expected to continue until the end of August 2025, impacting revenue in the short term [5][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in operations post-inventory clearance, with positive effects expected from fertility subsidies and increased dividend and buyback efforts [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the gross margin decreased by 6.3 percentage points to 61.6%, and the net profit margin fell by 7.6 percentage points to 10.9% due to reduced government subsidies and inventory-related losses [7][8]. - The company plans to distribute at least RMB 2 billion in dividends for 2025 and intends to repurchase up to 10% of its total shares, amounting to at least RMB 1 billion [7][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 199.1 billion, RMB 212.0 billion, and RMB 222.3 billion, reflecting a downward revision of 10%, 7%, and 7% respectively [8][12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.34, RMB 0.40, and RMB 0.46, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [8][12]. - The report highlights that the company, as a leader in the infant formula industry, is expected to improve operational efficiency through enhanced channel management and digitalization efforts [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 45.83 [5]. Core Insights - The company has seen a continuous improvement in the domestic data center business, with nearly 200MW of new orders accumulated by the end of 1H25, driven primarily by AI computing demand [2]. - The data center industry is currently in a cycle of improving supply and demand, with AI driving new demand and limited new supply due to strict project approvals in major cities [2]. - The company is successfully expanding its DayOne projects in Europe and Southeast Asia, aiming to sign contracts for 1GW capacity within three years [3]. - The successful issuance of the first domestic data center REITS project has garnered significant market attention, reflecting the capital market's recognition of quality digital infrastructure assets [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Business Performance - By the end of 1H25, the company achieved nearly 200MW of new data center orders, with 150MW added in Q1 and 40MW in Q2, primarily from AI computing demand [2]. - The domestic data center business's deployment rate reached a historical high of 77.5% in Q2 2025, benefiting from the expansion of AI applications [2]. Industry Supply and Demand - The domestic data center industry is experiencing a continuous improvement in supply and demand dynamics, with AI contributing to increased demand [2]. - The limited new supply due to stringent energy consumption indicators in first-tier cities positions the company favorably due to its resource reserves [2]. International Expansion - As of Q2 2025, the company has an operational scale of 213MW and a cumulative signed capacity of 783MW, with plans to achieve 1GW capacity in three years [3]. - The company has successfully signed contracts for its Thailand project and has initiated construction of a second data center in Finland, indicating strong growth potential in Europe [3]. REITS Project - The Southern GDS REITS has been successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a project valuation of HKD 2.4 billion and an implied EV/EBITDA valuation of 16.9 times [3]. - The public offering was highly subscribed, with an effective subscription multiple of 456 times, showcasing market confidence in quality digital infrastructure assets [3]. Financial Projections - The report maintains revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts, projecting adjusted EBITDA of RMB 5.29 billion, RMB 5.93 billion, and RMB 6.88 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The target valuation remains unchanged, with a SOTP valuation method applied, resulting in a target price of HKD 45.83 per share [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 2.472 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, primarily due to increased revenue from entertainment content services. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.3% to 178 million yuan, with adjusted net profit down 33.2% to 235 million yuan [1]. - The entertainment content service segment saw a revenue increase of 18.0% to 1.209 billion yuan, driven by a record number of films released [2]. - The online entertainment ticketing business generated 1.180 billion yuan in revenue, up 12.8%, with offline ticketing becoming a new growth engine [3]. - The company is actively exploring and developing IP derivative businesses, leveraging its promotional capabilities to connect online and offline channels [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.472 billion yuan, a 13.9% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 178 million yuan, down 37.3%, while adjusted net profit was 235 million yuan, down 33.2%. The gross margin fell from 53.3% in H1 2024 to 37.9% in H1 2025 due to increased costs [1]. Entertainment Content Services - The company’s entertainment content service segment achieved a revenue of 1.209 billion yuan, an 18.0% increase year-on-year, with a record number of films released, including 29 domestic and 9 imported films [2]. Online and Offline Ticketing - The online ticketing business generated 1.180 billion yuan in revenue, a 12.8% increase. The offline ticketing segment showed significant growth, with a strong increase in GMV and coverage, particularly in local performances [3]. IP Derivative Business - The company has developed several proprietary IPs and is collaborating on promotional activities for films and IP derivatives. This integration of IP and film is expected to enhance the value of the IP [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.46 billion HKD for H1 2025, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.897 billion HKD, down 20.0% year-on-year. The interim dividend per share is 0.0735 HKD, reflecting a 5.0% increase from 0.0700 HKD in the same period last year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - The total revenue of 10.46 billion HKD consists of 86.1% from operational services, 6.8% from construction services, and 7.1% from technical consulting and equipment sales. The operational business's proportion increased by 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - Water treatment services generated 4.52 billion HKD in revenue, up 3.0% year-on-year, with a domestic gross margin of 60%, an increase of 1 percentage point. Water supply services achieved 1.45 billion HKD, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, with a domestic gross margin of 41%, down 2 percentage points due to changes in customer structure [7]. - Construction services revenue fell to 0.712 billion HKD, a decline of 56.6% year-on-year, attributed to the company's light asset strategy and the completion of existing projects [7]. - Technical services and equipment sales generated 0.742 billion HKD, down 35.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34%, up 4 percentage points [7]. - Urban resource services reported 3.04 billion HKD in revenue, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20%, down 1 percentage point due to intensified competition and reduced demand from upstream industrial enterprises [7]. Financial Performance - The company recognized an asset impairment loss of 0.259 billion HKD in H1 2025, which negatively impacted performance but did not affect cash flow. Financial expenses were optimized, resulting in a reduction of 0.37 billion HKD [7]. - Capital expenditure significantly decreased to 0.943 billion HKD, down 40.0% from 1.57 billion HKD in the same period last year. Free cash flow has turned positive since 2022, with a favorable trend expected to continue as capital expenditures decline [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.66 billion HKD, 1.70 billion HKD, and 1.71 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Assuming a 3%-5% increase in dividends for 2025, the corresponding dividend yield for the stock price as of August 28, 2025, is estimated to be between 6.4%-6.6% [7].

证券研究报告 蜜雪集团 (2097 HK) 港股通 1H 高质量快步增长，龙头强者恒强 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 目标价 (港币) | 590.22 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币 截至 8 月 28 日) | 435.00 | | 市值 (港币百万) | 165,134 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 317.85 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 256.00-618.50 | | BVPS (人民币) | 55.98 | 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(港币): 590.22 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 zengjun@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 股价走势图 (14) 41 95 150 204 Mar-25 May-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 (%) 蜜雪集团 ...