每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指受制 24,700 點：中美在 5 月中旬於瑞士日內瓦經貿會談後發布聯合 聲明，雙方降低加徵關稅，互相保留加徵 10%關稅，美國對中國進口貨 品關稅將由 145%降至 30%，中國對美國進口貨品將由 125%降至 10%， 為期 90 日。中美 6 月倫敦談判達框架協議，後續關注 90 日對等關稅寬 限期過後能否取得長期協議。以伊停火，惟其後雙方是否遵循協議，仍有 待觀察。中美貿談續缺乏進展，內地現階段加推經濟刺激方案的意願不大， 企業盈利改善有限，北水於高位流入速度放緩。恒指阻力料見於 24,700 點，相當於未來 12 個月預測市盈率 11 倍。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國首季 GDP、核心 PCE 指數； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 財政部：根據形勢變化 及時推出增量儲備政策； 港滙觸7.85弱方 金管局今晨承接94.2億港元沽盤； 鮑威爾:未來貿易協議或允許聯儲局考慮減息； 歐盟警告：即使特朗普實施基準關稅，仍將進行報復； 企業消息 ➢ 據報比亞迪(1211)部分產能取消夜班及減產 暫 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to 3455.97 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72% and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.11%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.23% at 24474.67 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.15% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.13%[1] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 267.8 billion HKD[1] Federal Reserve and Regulatory Changes - The Federal Reserve plans to relax capital regulations for major banks, proposing to lower the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR) from the current 5% to a range of 3.5%-4.5%[12] - This change is expected to allow banks like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs to hold more U.S. Treasury securities, enhancing market resilience[12] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced that the U.S. will hold talks with Iran next week, claiming that the Middle East conflict has ended[12] - Iran reported significant damage to its nuclear facilities due to U.S. airstrikes, which Trump described as "thoroughly destroying" these sites[12] Currency and Monetary Policy - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) bought 9.42 billion HKD to maintain the currency peg after the HKD/USD exchange rate hit the weak end of the trading band[12] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net liquidity injection of 318 billion CNY in June, the largest in four months, to support the economy amid rising debt issuance[12]

Market Overview - Chinese markets continued to rise, led by large financial stocks, with significant policy support for securities and insurance sectors[3] - European stocks declined as investors remained cautious about the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran[3] - US stocks faced resistance near record highs, with Nvidia (NVDA US) reaching a new peak, reclaiming the top market capitalization spot[3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion CNY MLF operation to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 118 billion CNY after accounting for 182 billion CNY maturing[5] - The Fed's proposed capital regulation changes for large banks were disclosed, with Powell emphasizing the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts[5] Commodity and Forex Markets - US crude oil inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week, leading to a nearly 1% rebound in international oil prices[4][25] - International gold prices saw a slight increase, reflecting investor sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and Fed's cautious stance[4][25] Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.23%, marking four consecutive days of gains, driven by strong performances in the financial and insurance sectors[10] - The A-share market also saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, reaching a new high since December 2024[14] Key Index Movements - Major US indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.25% to 42,982.4, while the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 19,973.6[8] - In Europe, the DAX index fell 0.61% to 23,498.3, and the FTSE 100 dropped 0.46% to 8,718.75[8] Sector Highlights - In the Hong Kong market, the financial sector outperformed, with notable gains in brokerage stocks following regulatory support for virtual asset trading[10] - The technology sector in the US saw Nvidia leading gains, with a 4.33% increase, while Tesla's stock fell 3.79% due to declining sales in Europe[8] Bond Market Insights - US Treasury yields showed a slight increase, with the 5-year auction yield at 3.879%, slightly above pre-auction trading levels[28] - Asian bond markets remained active, with Japanese bonds showing resilience amid a broader market sell-off in the US[28]

公开资料显示，华夏线上经济主题精选混合基金成立于2020年8月26日，截至2025年3月31日，华夏线上 经济主题精选混合规模13.63亿元，基金经理为黄文倩。 金融界2025年6月25日消息，华夏线上经济主题精选混合(010020) 最新净值0.7742元，增长0.55%。该基 金近1个月收益率0.54%，同类排名3201|4669；近6个月收益率1.56%，同类排名2532|4521；今年来收益 率3.27%，同类排名2442|4531。 华夏线上经济主题精选混合股票持仓前十占比合计43.78%，分别为：美的集团（9.07%）、海尔智家 （6.01%）、快手-W（5.31%）、顾家家居（4.59%）、中天科技（3.79%）、格力电器（3.22%）、比 音勒芬（3.07%）、雅克科技（2.95%）、亿联网络（2.92%）、巨子生物（2.85%）。 简历显示：黄文倩女士:复旦大学金融学硕士。曾任中国国际金融有限公司高级经理。2011年11月加入 华夏基金管理有限公司,曾任投资研究部研究员、投资经理、华夏新兴消费混合型证券投资基金基金经 理(2018年11月7日至2020年5月7日期间)等,现任投资研究部总监, ...

Group 1: US Economy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that oil price shocks will not have a lasting impact on inflation, consistent with the quantitative analysis conducted by the US economic team in September 2023 [1] - The research indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices typically results in a modest 5 basis point increase in core prices within three months [1] - The model shows that headline prices react more significantly, increasing by 5 basis points in the same period, primarily due to the energy component of the CPI [1] Group 2: China Liquidity and MSCI China - In May, China's liquidity showed some improvement but remained negative due to strong growth in M1 (narrow money supply), intensified PPI deflation, and stable industrial value-added growth [4] - Morgan Stanley expects deflationary pressures to persist throughout 2025, with a passive policy stance leading to continued negative liquidity [4] Group 3: Chinese Beauty Market during 618 Sales - The total GMV of beauty products across four major e-commerce platforms grew by over 10% year-on-year, attributed to a 10-day extension of the promotional period and simplified sales strategies [6] - Douyin's beauty category growth outpaced Tmall's by approximately 10%, although the growth advantage for Douyin appears to be narrowing [6] - Tmall's competitive landscape remained stable, with the top six brands consistent with the previous year, while domestic brands showed more volatility in rankings [6] Group 4: E-commerce Platforms and Competition - Morgan Stanley expresses confidence in Meituan's competitive barriers in the instant retail sector, with Alibaba's e-commerce and local life services synergy expected to drive business expansion [15] - Meituan's restructuring of its 优选 (preferred) business is seen as a positive move, allowing for more investment in instant retail and international expansion [19] - Meituan is projected to achieve a GTV of 350 billion RMB in instant retail by 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [19] Group 5: Alibaba's Strategic Moves - Alibaba announced the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce group, maintaining their operational structures while enhancing business efficiency through strong synergies [21] - This move is seen as a response to JD's recent expansions into instant retail and online travel, highlighting the competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector [21]

环球市场动态 内 地 财 政 对 资 金 面 压 力 将 明 显 增 加 股 票 以色列伊朗停战，全球股市情绪大 幅反弹。A 股上涨，沪指重回 3400 店；港股全线上涨，权重的科技股、 金融股纷纷走高；欧洲交易时段尽 管以色列和伊朗双方都指责对方破 坏停火协议，但市场乐观情绪仍较 高推动强劲收涨；鲍威尔国会证词 提及降息，美股三大指数均涨超 1%，金龙中国指数涨 3%。 外 汇 / 商 品 以伊停火协议缓解供应担忧，并且 特朗普表示中国可以继续购买伊朗 石油，原油价格连续第二天重挫； 中东局势降温减弱避险需求，周二 国际金价下跌近 2%；美国消费者 信心弱于预期，鲍威尔降息前景发 出偏平衡的信号，美元指数下跌 0.6%至 97.86。 固 定 收 益 美国短期国债领涨；地缘政治局势 缓和；美国消费者信心意外下降； 鲍威尔重申观望立场，未排除 7 月 降息可能；两年期美债拍卖中标利 率略低于发行前水平，需求略显平 淡。亚洲债市情绪改善，中国投资 级债券利差收窄 1-3bp。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare sector is experiencing positive momentum driven by favorable policy signals and strong performance of the Hang Seng Healthcare Index and related ETFs [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 25, 2025, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) rose by 1.37%, with notable increases in stocks such as Cloudmed (01952) up 4.52% and JD Health (06618) up 3.16% [1]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (513060) also saw a rise of 1.58%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a latest price of 0.58 yuan [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover of 3.26 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.98% during the trading session [1]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Insights - Recent policies from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) aim to streamline clinical trial approval processes, potentially reducing the time and costs associated with drug development [2]. - The China Drug Evaluation (CDE) reported a steady increase in clinical trials in oncology and autoimmune fields, indicating a growing demand for innovative drug companies and the CXO industry [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced new listing standards for the ChiNext board, enhancing financing opportunities for unprofitable biotech companies [2]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF has seen a net value increase of 17.35% over the past two years, with a maximum monthly return of 28.34% since inception [3]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is reported at 1.66, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3]. - The ETF has the lowest drawdown among comparable funds, with a relative drawdown of 0.45% year-to-date [4]. Group 4: Valuation and Holdings - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index's latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) stands at 27.44, which is below the historical average, suggesting a potentially undervalued market [4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index account for 58.34% of the index, with notable companies including Innovent Biologics (01801) and BeiGene (06160) [4].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.06%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.9% [2] - The technology, financial, and automotive sectors saw widespread gains, while oil and gas stocks faced substantial declines [2] Technology and Financial Stocks - Major technology and financial stocks rose, with Xiaomi increasing nearly 4%, Hongye Futures surging over 15%, and China Galaxy rising nearly 9% [3] - Leading insurance stocks included China Taiping and Ping An, while major banks like Bank of Communications, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reached new highs [3] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector suffered due to a sharp decline in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical developments in the Middle East [4] - Notable declines included United Energy Group falling over 21%, Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85%, and Dalip Holdings dropping over 10% [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector benefited from favorable market conditions, with significant gains in stocks such as BYD (up 3.25%), Li Auto (up 3.81%), and Leap Motor (up 4.34%) [6][7] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that vehicle production and sales in the first five months of the year increased by over 10% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles showing particularly strong growth [8] Company-Specific Developments - Juzhibio saw a rise of 5.27% following a statement addressing the limitations of its current collagen product testing methods [9] - The company acknowledged the need for improved quality standards and testing methods in response to industry advancements and consumer expectations [11][13] - Future measures include collaborating with research institutions to enhance testing methods, publicly sharing key technical parameters, and participating in the formulation of national and industry standards [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high and closed with significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.06%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.9% [2] - The technology and financial sectors saw widespread gains, while the oil and gas sector experienced a sharp decline [2][3] Group 2: Technology and Financial Stocks - Major technology and financial stocks rose, with Xiaomi increasing nearly 4%, Hongye Futures soaring over 15%, and China Galaxy rising nearly 9% [4] - Leading insurance stocks included China Taiping and Ping An, while major banks like CCB, ICBC, and CMB reached new highs [4][5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector faced significant sell-offs due to a sharp drop in international oil prices, with companies like United Energy Group falling over 21% and Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85% [6][7] - Specific stock performances included China Petroleum down 0.30%, Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85%, and United Energy Group down 21.21% [8] Group 4: Automotive Sector - The automotive sector benefited from favorable market conditions, with stocks like BYD rising 3.25%, Li Auto up 3.81%, and Leap Motor increasing 4.34% [9][10] - The overall automotive industry showed positive growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year increasing by over 10% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 44% of total new car sales [12] Group 5: Company-Specific News - Juzhibio saw a rise of 5.27% following a statement addressing the limitations of its current collagen product testing methods [13][14] - The company acknowledged the need for optimization in quality standards and testing methods to meet industry advancements and consumer expectations [18]

今日，三大指数呈现高开高走行情，恒生指数涨2.06%上扬近500点重回两万四关口，国企指数、恒生科 技指数分别上涨1.9%及2.14%，三大指数均录得3连涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | O | 24177.07 | +487.94 | 2.06% | | 800100 | 国企指数 | | 8760.45 | +163.09 | 1.90% | | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | | 5297.96 | +110.95 | 2.14% | 具体来看： 在线教育板块全线收红，新东方-S涨超8%，网龙涨超6%，思考乐教育涨超5%，卓越教育集团涨超3%， 东方甄选涨超1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09901 | 新东方-S | (0) | 40.700 | +3.250 | 8.68% | | 00777 | 网龙 | | 10.680 | ...