长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-11-24 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：上行压力较大，预计区间震荡 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：11月21日塑料主力合约收盘价6770元/吨，环比-1.21%。LDPE均价为9033.33元/吨，环比-0.91%，HDPE均价 为7457元/吨，环比-1.00%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7260.59元/吨，环比-0.44%。LLDPE华南基差收于490.59元/ 吨，环比+11.66%，1-5月差-62元/吨（+17）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6357元/吨，较上周末-117元/吨，环比-1.81%.生意 社聚丙烯现货价报收6406.67元/吨（-80）。PP基差收50元/吨（+37），1-5月差-117元/吨（-16）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率82.71%，较上周-0.71个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量67.03万吨，环比- 0. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE:宏观情绪偏弱 ，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国LLDPE产量总计在30.46吨，较上周下跌1.20%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率82.71%，较上周期减少了0.43个百分点。本周期装 | | | | 置情况来看，内中天合创、中英石化、万华化学、吉林石化等装置存在检修情况，存量检修装置多于周后期重启，因此产能利用率环比下跌。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.5%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%； ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to experience a downward trend, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a decline of 0.39% as of the latest update, after a drop of over 2% during the day [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery and phosphate chemical sectors have seen significant declines, with Enjie Co. down over 4%, and Hongda Co. and Chuanfa Longmang both down over 3% [1] - The Chemical ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.89%, outperforming major A-share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (14.41%) and the CSI 300 Index (13.18%) [1][3] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms driven by "anti-involution" policies, leading to an improved supply-demand balance and increased market share for leading companies [4] - The phosphoric and potash sectors are experiencing high demand, with stable prices for phosphate rock and steady growth in potash demand [4] - The valuation of the Chemical ETF is relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.28, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-sector chemical industry index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [5] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through linked funds of the Chemical ETF, enhancing investment efficiency [5]

化工板块今日（11月24日）延续回调态势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天低位震 荡，盘中场内价格一度跌超2%，午后跌幅收窄，截至发稿，跌0.39%。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于 2012.4.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中 提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举，不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任 何在本文出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只 作为参考，投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另，本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅 读者任何形式的投资建议，亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。投资人应当认 真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金的风险收益 特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理 的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。根据基金管理人的评估，化工ETF风险等级为R3-中 风险， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The contract is 12601. With the capacity being put into production, new devices are gradually coming into operation, and the existing production load is also high. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase in Q4, leading to significant supply pressure. As the demand enters the end of the peak season and struggles to digest the high output, the price center of polyethylene may continue to move downward [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the futures market, the spot price also declined. The basis strengthened overall. The basis in East China strengthened by 60 to around 180 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around -20 yuan/ton, and weakened by 10 to around 190 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend [20]. - **Spread on the Futures Market**: The 1 - 5 spread remained slightly at around -60, at a historical low. The L - PP01 spread climbed above 430 yuan/ton, and the PP - 701 spread was at a high level. Overall, PP faced greater supply pressure (high load and new production), while L had more maintenance and stronger support from agricultural film demand. The methanol market was weak, with port inventories reaching a new high under high imports. The methanol price continued to decline, and the MI0 profit improved month - on - month [28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest capacity share, with the East China oil - based cost at 7192 yuan/ton. The coal - based process is an important supplement to domestic PE production, with the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost at 5523 yuan/ton. The light - hydrocarbon process has the second - largest share, but lacks a clear cost calculation formula. The MTO process has a relatively small capacity share, and its marginal impact is limited [54][55][56]. - **Production Profit**: This week, oil prices oscillated and then declined after mid - week. The Brent crude oil price fell below 82 US dollars per barrel. The oil - based profit was at a relatively good level in recent years. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was weak, and the profit of ethylene procurement improved. Affected by supply tightening and strengthened winter - storage expectations, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the CTO profit deteriorated but remained high, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure [57][58]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of October 2025, the new domestic PE capacity totaled 393 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.49%. The planned new capacity in 2025 is 563 million tons, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 14.91%. This week, the domestic PE output was 67.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.35 million tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous week. The maintenance loss was 9.95 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons compared to the previous week. New maintenance was added to devices of Wanhua Chemical, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhongying Petrochemical, and the maintenance devices had not restarted, resulting in a decrease in supply this week [78][79][80]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price in the International Market**: The prices in Northwest Europe were at a high level, especially for LD and HD. The US prices declined. The US dollar prices in the Chinese market showed mixed trends, the prices in Southeast Asia decreased slightly with weak demand, and the prices in South Asia remained stable with light trading [96]. - **Domestic and International Price Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the periphery recovered. The import windows for LD and some HD products were open. Recently, the inventory pressure of foreign suppliers has weakened, and the reporting of offers has slowed down [97][107]. 3.4 Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: The downstream has entered the end of the peak season. The demand for greenhouse films is gradually shrinking, and the operating rate of mulch films has declined from the high level. The operating rate of packaging films increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with some rigid demand remaining. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products increased by 0.3%, while the operating rates of drawing and injection molding decreased by 1% and 0.1% respectively [122]. - **Downstream Profit**: Relevant data showed the profit trends of different types of films such as mulch films and double - protection films, but specific analysis was not provided in the report [123][132]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.59 million tons to 50.33 million tons, including a reduction of 2.5 million tons in the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies and 0.09 million tons in coal - based inventory. The social inventory decreased by 1.42 million tons to 48.59 million tons. The increase in upstream maintenance and active inventory reduction, combined with the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, led to the reduction of upstream and social inventories [11][150]. 3.6 Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipts - **Position**: The positions of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics showed different trends over time [165]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics also showed different trends over time [167][168][169]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts of L showed a change trend over time [174].

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call on the China Chemical Sector Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Chemical Sector, specifically MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), refrigerants, electrolytes, and TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) [2][3][4][5] MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Price Trends**: pMDI prices have decreased year-to-date (YTD), averaging Rmb15,986/t, down 6% YoY, with a forecast range of Rmb14,500-16,000/t for 2026 [8][11] - **Supply Dynamics**: Expected capacity additions in 2026 include Wanhua (700ktpa), BASF (160ktpa), and Covestro (40ktpa) [9] - **Demand Outlook**: Modest domestic demand growth anticipated in 2026, with a projected consumption growth of 2-6% for major downstream applications [10] - **Export Challenges**: Exports expected to decline to ~0.8mt in 2025, primarily due to reduced shipments to the US [10] Refrigerants - **Pricing Divergence**: Significant price variations observed YTD, with R32 and R134a prices increasing by 57% and 47% YoY, respectively, while R22 prices fell due to weak demand [12][15] - **Future Price Projections**: R32 and R134a prices expected to reach Rmb69,500/t and Rmb63,500/t by end-2026, respectively [14] - **Demand Risks**: Potential downside risks from new air conditioning demand and increased overseas capacity, particularly in India [15] Electrolytes - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Anticipated moderation in supply-demand imbalance for LiPF6 in 2026, with a price range forecast of Rmb80,000-90,000/t [16][17] - **Capacity Growth**: Expected capacity growth of 6.8% in 2026, with a slowdown to ~5.4% CAGR from 2026-2030 [17] - **Additives Pricing**: Significant price increases for electrolyte additives noted, with vinylene carbonate rising to Rmb108,000/t [18] TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) - **Market Conditions**: Domestic TiO2 producers facing losses due to oversupply and high costs, with average prices projected to decline 3% YoY to Rmb13,500/t in 2026 [5][23] - **Capacity Additions**: Anticipated new capacity of 1.12mtpa in 2026, with 200ktpa expected to come online early in the year [21] - **Export Recovery**: Mild recovery in TiO2 export volumes expected, driven by global demand growth and potential changes in India's anti-dumping policies [22] Additional Insights - **Risks in the Chemical Sector**: Key risks include price volatility due to fluctuations in oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand, and rapid capacity expansions leading to oversupply [24] - **Analyst Insights**: The opinions expressed by experts do not necessarily reflect the views of UBS, and the firm disclaims responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided [7]

内容概要：由于胶粘剂所存在的物理形态不同，可以把胶粘剂简单地分成溶剂型、热熔型和水基型等三 大类型，其中水基型胶粘剂是以水作为分散介质的胶粘剂，是环保胶粘剂的一大类，又简称为水基胶。 水基型胶粘剂无挥发性有机溶剂释放，契合环保理念；其原料及生产工艺相对简单，成本较低；水的不 可燃性使其在贮存、运输和使用中安全性较高。随着消费市场对环保及安全性要求的提升，下游行业对 安全、环保、无毒的需求性也在不断增强。水基胶粘剂因其环保性能和优异的粘接性能而备受青睐，已 成为我国主流胶粘剂种类。尤其是在当前环保政策日趋严格的背景下，水基胶粘剂替代溶剂型胶粘剂已 成为行业发展趋势。2024年我国水基型胶粘剂销售量为323.8万吨，同比小幅增长0.1%，在国内胶粘剂 市场中的份额为37.5%。近年来，我国水基型胶粘剂销售额实现稳步扩张，2020-2024年期间销售额年复 合增长率为3.1%，2024年我国水基型胶粘剂销售额增长至248.2亿元，同比增长0.5%，增幅稍高于销售 量增幅。随着下游需求不断升级，市场消费向着高端化转型，带动水基型胶粘剂售价整体呈上升态势， 2020-2024年期间，中国水基型胶粘剂价格维持在0.7万元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Yongda Chemical Machinery Co., Ltd. (Yongda Co.) is set to undergo its IPO review on November 26, 2025, with a planned fundraising of 457.81 million yuan, significantly reduced from the initial target of 607.79 million yuan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yongda Co. was established in August 2009 and specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, sales, and related technical services of pressure vessels in various sectors, including basic chemicals, coal chemicals, refining, petrochemicals, photovoltaics, and pharmaceuticals [3]. - The company plans to issue no more than 46.52 million shares in its IPO [3]. Group 2: Fundraising and Project Details - The IPO proceeds will primarily fund the construction of a heavy chemical equipment production base, with a total investment of 591 million yuan, utilizing 457.81 million yuan from the IPO [4]. - The company has canceled a 50 million yuan supplementary working capital project, indicating a strategic decision to maintain ethical standards after significant cash dividends totaling 203 million yuan from 2021 to 2024 [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Yongda Co. has shown revenue growth from 696 million yuan in 2022 to an expected 819 million yuan in 2024, but net profits have fluctuated, with a decrease from 131 million yuan in 2023 to an expected 107 million yuan in 2024, indicating a trend of increasing revenue without corresponding profit growth [7][8]. - For 2025, the company forecasts a revenue decline of approximately 14.56% to 8.46%, with net profits expected to range from 113 million to 130 million yuan, reflecting a potential profit increase despite revenue decline [8][10]. Group 4: Customer Base and Stability - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 85.36% to 86.69% of total sales during the reporting period, but these customers have shown instability, with only one customer consistently appearing in the top rankings over the years [11][12]. - The frequent changes in major customers raise concerns about the stability of Yongda Co.'s revenue streams, despite claims of long-term relationships based on product quality and technical expertise [11]. Group 5: Production Capacity and Industry Challenges - Yongda Co. plans to increase its production capacity from 25,000 tons to 55,000 tons per year, despite a significant drop in capacity utilization from 106.64% in 2023 to 83.83% in 2024 [13]. - The company faces challenges in its downstream industries, particularly in chemicals and photovoltaics, which are experiencing low operational rates and overall industry pressure, raising questions about the appropriateness of its expansion strategy [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive impact of India's cancellation of BIS certification and anti-dumping duties, which is expected to boost PVC exports. India is the largest importer of PVC globally, with an estimated import volume of approximately 3 million tons in 2024, primarily driven by agricultural and construction demands [2][8] - The report emphasizes the anticipated recovery in chemical industry sentiment and the sustained high growth expectations in energy storage, particularly in the MDI, PVC, and phosphate chemical sectors [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on PVC-related companies that are expected to see a recovery in demand, including Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Tianyuan Co., with Wanhu Chemical rated as "Buy" due to its leading position in MDI. In the phosphate chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua are highlighted, while in the oxalic acid industry, Hualu Hengsheng, Huayi Group, and Wankai New Materials are recommended as "Buy" [3] Industry Insights - The report notes that the demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise due to increased energy storage needs, particularly from lithium iron phosphate. The development of the oxalic acid route is anticipated to significantly boost demand, with limited new domestic production capacity projected [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The synergy between silicone and caprolactam has been established, indicating a potential upturn in the industry, with a shift away from internal competition accelerating the chemical sector's turning point [3]. - The report highlights a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Xin'an Chemical for silicone, and Luxi Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Polyone for caprolactam [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil supply growth is slowing due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with a global economic improvement [3][4]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize in the long term, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export facility construction [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across four chains: textile and apparel, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [3]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Textile and Apparel: Luxi Chemical, Tongkun Co., Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical - Agricultural Chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Wanhu Chemical - Anti-involution sectors: Biyuan Chemical, Xuefeng Technology [3]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor materials, panel materials, and lithium battery materials [3].