-17% -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 社会服务 沪深300 证券研究报告：社会服务|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 8037.22 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9343.57 | | 52 | 周最低 | 5985.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 交运数据：小个位数增长。据中国交通报数据，2025 年 5 月 31 日至 6 月 2 日（端午节假期期间），预计全社会跨区域人员流动量累 计 6.57 亿人次，日均 2.19 亿人次，同比去年端午增长 3.0%。其中， 铁路客运量日均同比增长2.3%，公路人员流动量日均同比增长3.14%， 水路客运量日均同比下降 1.65%，民航客运量日均同比增长 1.22%。 出入境：小个位数增长。据国家移民管理局数据，今年端午节假 期全国边检机关共计保障 590.7 万人次中外人员出入境， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic tourism market shows a steady recovery with significant growth in various segments, including local travel, cultural heritage experiences, and family-oriented trips [3][4] - The overall consumer market is experiencing stable growth, with notable increases in sales across various retail sectors during the Dragon Boat Festival [4] - The tourism sector remains vibrant, with a marked increase in inbound tourism orders and significant growth in ticket sales for attractions [3][4] Summary by Sections Travel Data - During the Dragon Boat Festival, 119 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and a 26.7% increase compared to 2019 [1] - Total domestic tourism expenditure reached 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year, and 8.6% compared to 2019 [1] Hotel and Accommodation - High-star hotels in county areas saw a 73% increase in one-stop package bookings, with family-oriented bookings making up 33% [2] - The demand for high-end hotels and boutique accommodations has risen significantly during the holiday [3] Local and Cultural Tourism - Local and surrounding travel accounted for 64% of trips during the holiday, with a notable increase in demand for high-end hotels and vacation rentals [3] - Cultural heritage experiences related to the Dragon Boat Festival saw a 2.5 times increase in search volume for related keywords [3] Consumer Market Performance - Key retail sectors in Beijing achieved sales of 4.18 billion yuan during the holiday, a 1.6% increase year-on-year [4] - The restaurant sector in Beijing experienced nearly a 10% growth in consumption during the holiday [4] Inbound Tourism - A total of 5.907 million people crossed borders during the holiday, marking a 2.7% increase year-on-year [3] - Inbound tourism orders saw a nearly 90% increase compared to the previous year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities highlights the significant stock price increase of Horizon Robotics (09660) by 11.4% after being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, suggesting a potential timing opportunity based on capital flow [1] Group 1: Market Behavior Post Inclusion - After being included in the Stock Connect, leading companies often experience immediate capital inflow, resulting in stock price increases, with the steepest inflow observed in the initial days [2] - However, the short-term price increase is not universally applicable to all companies, indicating that this is not a straightforward quantitative timing strategy [2] - This strategy is more effective for high-quality leading companies that have been thoroughly researched and recognized by active funds, which are likely to buy quickly after inclusion [2] Group 2: Future Inclusion Candidates - There are two fixed "inclusion" periods each year: the first week of March and September, with the next inclusion effective the following Monday, primarily based on the company's inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index [3] - Additionally, there are quarterly rapid inclusions for newly listed companies, which are subject to specific criteria such as average market capitalization [3][4] - Potential companies for future inclusion include: - June 6: Bruker, Mixue Group, and Gu Ming [5][6] - Late June: CATL and Hengrui Medicine [5][6] - September 5: Companies like Conant Optical and others [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery and trends in service consumption in China, highlighting the differences between service and goods consumption growth, as well as the performance of various sectors within service consumption. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a strong rebound for about a year, with a notable increase in growth rates for service retail compared to goods retail. In 2023, service retail grew by 20%, significantly outpacing the 5.8% growth in goods retail. In 2024, service retail is expected to grow by 6.2%, exceeding goods retail growth by 3 percentage points [2]. - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2024 has contributed to a sustained increase in goods consumption growth, with an estimated 1.5 percentage points increase in consumption driven by this policy [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Recovery - The fastest recovery within service consumption is observed in cultural entertainment and dining services, with 2023 year-on-year growth rates of 39.2% and 27.6%, respectively. Their share of cash consumption increased from 3% and 7.5% in 2022 to 3.7% and 8.7% in 2023 [5]. - In 2024, the growth rates for cultural entertainment and dining services are projected to be 10.6% and 8.4%, with their shares of cash consumption rising to 3.9% and 8.9% [5]. Group 3: Urban vs. Rural Consumption - Urban residents have shown a faster recovery in tourism consumption compared to rural residents, with tourism numbers and income recovering to 97.7% and 103.8% of 2019 levels, respectively, while rural residents lag at 81.4% and 84.7% [10]. - Rural residents are more inclined to spend on food, clothing, and daily necessities, with spending growth rates in these categories exceeding those of urban residents in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Seasonal Consumption Patterns - Tourism consumption exhibits a clear holiday concentration, with the proportion of total tourism numbers and income during major holidays like May Day and National Day remaining above pre-pandemic levels, despite a slight decrease from 2020 [11]. Group 5: Per Capita Spending Trends - Per capita tourism spending rapidly recovered to 90% of 2019 levels in 2023 but has since plateaued, indicating a stabilization phase in consumer spending patterns [12]. Group 6: Dining Consumption Insights - There is a notable disparity in growth rates between dining consumption in different market segments, with lower-tier dining establishments experiencing a 6.3% growth compared to just 3% for higher-tier establishments in 2024 [16]. - The performance of dining companies varies significantly based on their market focus, with those operating in lower-tier cities showing substantial profit growth, while those in higher-tier cities face declines [18].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report highlights a robust growth in visitor numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 6.87 billion people expected to travel, marking a 3.0% year-on-year increase. The demand for family-oriented travel has significantly surged, particularly for short-distance self-driving trips and parent-child tours [1][16] - The launch of new products by Lao Pu Gold, such as the Seven Sons Gourd, is expected to drive high demand in the fashion gold jewelry sector, despite a tightening overall consumption environment. The emotional value and aesthetic appeal of these products are anticipated to meet consumer needs effectively [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with respective increases of 1.11% and 2.77% [10] - The jewelry and watch sector saw a notable increase of 6.05% [10] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - The Dragon Boat Festival saw a significant increase in short-distance travel, with major cities experiencing a surge in tourist numbers [16] - Various regions hosted cultural activities, contributing to increased visitor engagement [17][19] 2.2 Industry Investment and Financing - Key investment events included several companies in the retail and e-commerce sectors securing funding, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [23][25] 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Notable announcements included changes in board members at various companies, reflecting ongoing corporate governance adjustments [26][27] 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Data - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in categories such as gold and jewelry, which saw a 25.3% increase [32][44] 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in 2024 was reported at 985.31 tons, with a notable decline in jewelry consumption but an increase in gold bars and coins [46][48] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five investment themes, including the revival of traditional retail, advancements in AI technology, and the growing consumer willingness to pay for emotional value [52][54]

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

Group 1: Luckin Coffee - Multiple drinks at Luckin Coffee have been reduced by 3 yuan, with prices now in the 6.9 yuan range for non-core beverages like light milk tea and fruit C Americano, down from 9.9 yuan [2] - Classic coffee drinks such as coconut latte and meteor latte remain priced between 13 to 17 yuan, with some products even experiencing price increases [2] - Luckin Coffee clarified that the price adjustments are part of promotional offers for the Dragon Boat Festival and Children's Day, involving the distribution of 6.9 yuan discount coupons rather than an overall price reduction [2] Group 2: Haidilao - Haidilao has opened its first crispy fish-themed restaurant in Guangzhou, integrating the local specialty crispy fish with traditional hot pot offerings [2] - The restaurant emphasizes a "fresh and crispy" experience, aiming to enhance consumer engagement through innovative regional ingredients and upgraded visual experiences [2] - This opening follows previous themed restaurant launches, including a fresh-cut chicken and a beef workshop, showcasing Haidilao's strategy to diversify its offerings in Guangdong [2] Group 3: Guming - Guming has established a holding company in Zhejiang with a registered capital of 1.1 billion yuan, focusing on holding company services, machinery development, software development, and enterprise management [4] - The new company is fully owned by Guming's associated company, Guming (Hong Kong) Limited, indicating a strategic move to expand its operational capabilities [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that since JD Group announced a 10 billion RMB takeaway subsidy plan on April 11, the average stock price of the covered ready-to-drink beverage companies has increased by 39% [1] - The takeaway orders from JD are significantly directed towards ready-to-drink brands, with Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee leading in order volume, followed by major ready-to-drink tea brands [1] - Channel surveys indicate that participating stores in promotional activities may see their order volume more than double, with the impact varying based on brand participation strategies, pricing, and delivery proportions [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised the earnings forecasts for Gu Ming and Mi Xue Bing Cheng for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 9%, reflecting faster store expansion and stronger merchandise transaction growth [1] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for Gu Ming in 2026 has been adjusted from 20 times to 26 times, still about 20% lower than the industry leader Mi Xue Bing Cheng [1] - The target price for Gu Ming has been increased from 21 HKD to 29.2 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs also raised the earnings forecasts for Mi Xue Bing Cheng for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 3%, reflecting faster store expansion and steady growth in merchandise transaction value in the Chinese market [2] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for Mi Xue Bing Cheng in 2026 has been adjusted from 26 times to 32 times, with the target price increased from 484 HKD to 597 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in visitor numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a projected total of 6.87 billion trips, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][18] - The demand for family-oriented travel has surged, particularly for short-distance self-driving trips and parent-child tours, with bookings for parent-child group tours increasing by 80% year-on-year [1][2] - The launch of new products by Lao Pu Gold, such as the Seven Sons Gourd, is expected to drive high demand in the fashion gold jewelry sector, despite a tightening overall consumption environment [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with significant gains in the jewelry and watch sector [11] - The report notes a 5.1% year-on-year increase in total retail sales in April, with jewelry sales growing by 25.3% [36][50] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics - The report discusses the increase in domestic tourism, with various regions reporting significant visitor numbers during the holiday period [18][19] - Lao Pu Gold's new product launch is positioned to capture the growing trend in fashion jewelry, appealing to consumer sentiment and aesthetic preferences [2][3] 3. Macro & Industry Data - April's retail sales data indicates a stable growth trajectory, with online retail sales showing a 5.8% year-on-year increase [37] - The report provides insights into the gold jewelry market, noting a decline in overall gold consumption but an increase in gold bars and coins [52][55] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five investment themes, including the revival of traditional retail formats, the rise of AI technology applications, and the potential for new retail sectors to outperform expectations [59][61]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is that despite achieving significant revenue and profit growth in the first quarter, the overall growth rate of the new tea beverage industry is slowing down, prompting companies to seek overseas expansion as a new growth avenue [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter, the company reported a total merchandise transaction volume of 8.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38% [2] - Revenue reached 3.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.4% [2] - Net profit was 677 million yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 20% [2] - The company had a total of 6,681 stores globally, with 241 new stores opened in the quarter, marking an increase of 2,598 stores compared to the same period last year [2] Market Trends - The new tea beverage market is becoming saturated, with many companies experiencing slower growth rates and increased competition [3] - Several newly listed tea beverage companies are facing challenges, with some reporting declines in revenue and profit [3] - The overall market is characterized by a proliferation of tea shops in high-density urban areas, leading to increased competition [3] Overseas Expansion - As the domestic market saturates, overseas expansion is becoming a key growth strategy for tea beverage companies [6] - The company reported that its overseas merchandise transaction volume reached 178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.3%, with a total of 169 overseas stores [6] - Other brands are also expanding internationally, with significant numbers of stores established in Southeast Asia [6] Challenges of Internationalization - The expansion into international markets presents challenges related to supply chain management, organizational structure, and cultural adaptation [7] - Future competition in the industry will hinge on the completeness of supply chains, necessitating robust supply chain management before further expansion [7]