地产止跌回稳后的投资机遇——申万宏源·2025 资本市场春 季策略会 20250312 摘要 Q&A 2025 年初以来房地产市场的整体表现如何？ 当前房地产价格走势如何？是否出现波动？ 2025 年初以来，房地产市场在春节后出现了明显回暖。数据显示，主流的 20 个城市二手房认购成交量同比增长了 27%，其中杭州和东莞的表现尤为突出， 甚至翻倍。然而，与 2023 年同期相比，这一数据下降了 17%。需要注意的是， 2023 年的基数较高，因为当时疫情放开导致市场表现异常强劲。尽管如此，一 些城市如杭州、成都、深圳、长沙和沈阳在今年的表现仍超过了 2023 年同期水 • 房地产市场需求在房价下跌后自然回升，杭州、成都、深圳等城市认购销 售数据优于过去两年，北京、上海表现稳定。春节后带看量显著回升，预 示认购量有望进一步改善。 • 房地产价格走势略有走弱，挂牌价格下降但成交价格稳定，受季节性因素 和居民资产负债表影响。新房成交推盘比提升至 2.4 倍，表明新房市场去 化速度加快，市场信心有所恢复。 • 土地市场出现积极变化，北京、上海、杭州等地拍出新"地王"，3 月份 溢价率达 16%，头部企业拿地强度上升， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the real estate market, suggesting a phase of consolidation and potential recovery supported by government policies [7][40]. Core Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 1.47 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, but this is a significant slowdown from the previous week's 36.9% growth [1][13]. - The cumulative transaction volume of new homes in first-tier cities shows mixed results, with Beijing down 24.8%, while Shenzhen increased by 108.0% year-on-year [2][21]. - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell sharply by 88.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in land sales [4][32]. - The government is actively implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan aimed at supporting construction and land acquisition [5][35]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - The new home sales volume in 30 major cities was 1.47 million square meters, up 13.3% year-on-year but down 32.5% from the previous week [1][13]. - Year-on-year changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were +43.0%, +7.9%, and -4.2%, respectively [1][13]. Cumulative Transaction Volume in First-tier Cities - Beijing's cumulative sales volume was 790,000 square meters, down 24.8% year-on-year [2][21]. - Shanghai saw a 29.6% increase to 1.63 million square meters, while Guangzhou rose by 49.2% to 1.18 million square meters [2][21]. - Shenzhen's cumulative sales volume reached 690,000 square meters, up 108.0% year-on-year [2][21]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 97.5, down from 137.4 year-on-year [3][29]. - First-tier cities had a ratio of 63.7, significantly lower than the previous year's 113.1 [3][29]. Land Transaction Volume - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 341,000 square meters, down 88.3% year-on-year [4][32]. - First-tier cities experienced a 72.4% decline in land sales [4][32]. Government Policies - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes efforts to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including adjusting restrictive policies and controlling new land supply [5][35]. - The report also highlights the importance of improving housing quality and expanding the use of re-loans for affordable housing [5][35]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose by 5.2%, lagging behind the broader market [6][38]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among different categories of property developers, with state-owned enterprises generally performing better than private developers [6][38].

2025 年 3 月 13 日 星期四 每日大市点评 3 月 12 日，港股大盘无法承接周二强势，昨日先冲高后回落，恒生指数最终下跌 181 点或 0.8%，收报 23,600 点。恒生科 指下跌 2.0%，收报 5,845 点。大市成交金额有 2,785 多亿港元，港股通大幅流入超过 262 亿港元。虽然港股通持续南下 撑市，但港股的升势似乎有所放缓，整体运行节奏也改变，从 1 月以来的单边上升转化为多空震荡。无论从预测 PE、风 险溢价、股息率及 AH 溢价指数都反映港股的第一波估值基本修复到位，当前进入经济数据及业绩的发布期，市场焦点都 会逐渐回到基本面，港股整体估值进一步上修需要基本面和盈利面的配合。另外，连日大跌的美股或到达反弹阶段，不 排除有部分资金或回流美股。昨日恒生香港中资企业指数(红筹股)仅下跌 0.3%，说明资金开始转向防御性或落后股份。 盘面上看，券商、黄金相关、材料、通讯设备、公用事业、基建、部分汽车及智能驾驶概念股表现较好，而消费、医 疗、地产及科技等顺周期都有较大跌幅。近期显著上升的消费类半新股大多出现大成交冲高回落，如布鲁可(325 HK)、 毛戈平(1318 HK)及蜜雪(20 ...

【二手房成交】 1-2 月一线城市楼市成交同比正增长，弱能级城市仍 然承压；土拍溢价率创 42 个月以来新高 核心观点 【新房成交】 房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 3 月 13 日 强于大市 投资建议 房地产行业2025年2月月报 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 因去年同期恰逢春节假期低基数原因，2 月新房成交面积同比增速转正。2 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-14.2%，同比+25.0%，同比增速由负转 正，同比增速较上月上升 36.6pct。1-2 月 40 城新房成交面积累计同比+1.8%。 从各能级城市来看，高能级城市新房成交量同比正增长，一线城市因新政利好效应增幅居前，三四线城市同比负增长。1）一线城市：2 月新 房成交面积环比-29.8%，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the manufacturing and services sectors in the U.S., with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while services demonstrate resilience [4][3]. Core Insights - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 50.3, below expectations of 50.8, indicating a slight expansion in manufacturing activity. Notably, the new orders index fell by 6.5 percentage points, reflecting a significant decline in demand [4][3]. - In contrast, the ISM services PMI for February was reported at 53.5, exceeding expectations of 52.5, suggesting an acceleration in service sector expansion [4][3]. - The services employment index rose to 53.9, while the prices index increased by 2.2 percentage points to 62.6, indicating persistent cost pressures that are being passed on to consumers [3][4]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing employment index and new orders index both saw significant declines, with the new orders index dropping to its lowest level since May of the previous year [4][8]. - The manufacturing prices index surged to 62.4, significantly higher than the expected 56.3, indicating accelerated price growth [4][3]. Services Sector - The services sector showed resilience with a PMI of 53.5, reflecting a faster expansion rate compared to previous months [4][3]. - The services new orders index saw a slight increase, while the employment index experienced its first decline in three months [8][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The report highlights persistent inflationary pressures, with the manufacturing prices index remaining above 60 for three consecutive months, indicating sticky inflation in the U.S. economy [3][4]. - The overall economic outlook suggests a potential shift towards "stagflation" as manufacturing demand weakens while costs remain high [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an optimistic outlook for the industry [5][74]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is expected to experience a structural strength while overall volume remains weak, with a forecast of a bottoming out in the market [5][34]. - It emphasizes the importance of the residents' balance sheet and housing prices as key determinants of market dynamics [5][6]. Market Overview - The current market situation shows that demand is supported while supply is constrained, suggesting a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in first and second-tier cities by 2025 [6][65]. - The report notes that since 2021, the real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, with a notable decline in new housing sales while second-hand housing transactions have increased [38][71]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The total housing transaction volume is projected to decline to 1.39 billion square meters in 2024, below the estimated mid-term demand of 1.43 billion square meters, indicating underlying demand support [6][39]. - The overall inventory level is high at 4.5 billion square meters, with a significant portion concentrated in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to a short-term effective inventory shortage in first and second-tier cities [58][65]. Financial Metrics - The report estimates that the national second-hand housing prices have dropped by 31% since 2021, significantly impacting the residents' asset-liability ratio, which is expected to reach 13.2% by 2024 [6][44][49]. - The housing market's total value is projected to decline to 285 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a cumulative drop of 27% from the peak in 2021 [6][44]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2025, new housing sales will decrease by 4.5%, while second-hand housing sales are expected to increase by 6.2%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [71][69]. - It predicts that the real estate sector will see a structural rebound, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with quality real estate companies likely to replicate the supply-side reform logic seen in the coal industry [5][74]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies such as Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments, among others, while also highlighting opportunities in undervalued firms and those benefiting from urban renewal policies [5][74].

中信证券近期 系列电话会 掘金香港金融股的攻守 中信证券金融产业系列电话会 3月10日-3月13日 参会密码：942617 3月11日 周二 19:00 3月12日 周三 15:30 港交所： 市场新高助推贝塔, 资金-资产共振演绎阿尔法 主讲：田良 薛姣 参会密码：796633 3月13日 周四 15:30 招商银行： 稳健增长，稳定回报 主讲：肖悲斐 林楠 参会密码：079047 | 3月12日 周三 15:30 | 3月13日 周四 15:30 | | --- | --- | | 友邦保险： | 中金公司： 低估值贝塔适逢行业供给侧改革 | | 淘金港股保险 | 主讲： | | 主讲： | 田良 陆昊 | | 童成墩 薛姣 张君翔 | 参会密码：265727 | 红利为锚，成长为帆 基础设施和现代服务产业系列电话会 3月10日-3月19日 3月10日 周一 19:00 贝壳： 居住服务入口 主讲：陈聪 张全国 川投能源： 估值具备吸引力，电价冲击有限 主讲：荣浩翔 参会密码：352675 3月12日 周三 19:00 3月13日 周四 19:00 参会密码：850703 | 申通快递： | 中国巨石：玻 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, marking a potential turning point in the current cycle [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of various measures to stabilize the market, including reducing restrictive policies and enhancing housing supply [52][56] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Views - Real estate development is seen as crucial for economic stability, with recommendations for strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [6] - In property management, companies with strong market expansion capabilities and service diversification are highlighted as having long-term investment value, recommending China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service [6] - The second-hand housing market is recovering faster than new housing, with recommendations for leading real estate transaction platforms like Beike [7] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - New housing sales in 37 cities decreased by 30.5% week-on-week but increased by 11.4% year-on-year, with a total of 178 million square meters sold [13] - Second-hand housing sales in 16 cities decreased by 3.8% week-on-week but increased by 46.4% year-on-year, totaling 184.8 million square meters sold [18] - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 77.9 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of 16.5 months [22] 3. Market Review - The real estate sector's performance was -0.7% last week, ranking 28th among 29 sectors, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices rose by 1.4% and 2.4% respectively [42] 4. Industry Policy Tracking - The government is focused on stabilizing the real estate market through various measures, including promoting housing demand and reforming the development and financing systems [52][56]

Core Viewpoint - The influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market represents not only a significant capital flow but also an opportunity for redefining industrial value, particularly highlighted by the record net buying of HKD 747.017 billion in the past year, a 158% year-on-year increase [1][4]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Trends - Southbound capital has shown unprecedented enthusiasm for the Hong Kong stock market, with net buying expected to reach HKD 807.9 billion in 2024, a 136% year-on-year increase, setting a new record since the launch of the mutual market access [4]. - The capital market has referred to this trend as a large-scale "north water south transfer" [5]. - In 2024, southbound capital primarily favored high-yield and dividend stocks, with the top 10 net buying stocks being dominated by these categories [6]. Group 2: Impact on Real Estate Sector - In the ongoing adjustment period of the real estate industry, Beike has emerged as a representative of technology-driven new residential services, benefiting from the support of southbound capital [2]. - Beike's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to attract significant active and passive capital allocation, potentially increasing liquidity and trading activity [7]. - The stock price of Beike has risen from around HKD 45 to approximately HKD 65 since February, influenced by an upgrade in its ESG rating and expectations of its inclusion in the Stock Connect [8]. Group 3: Beike's Financial Performance - Beike reported a transaction volume of RMB 736.8 billion in Q3 2024, a 12.5% year-on-year increase, with net income rising by 26.8% to RMB 22.6 billion [15]. - As of Q3 2024, Beike's cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 59.5 billion, with short-term borrowings only at RMB 3.07 billion, indicating a strong financial position compared to traditional real estate companies [16]. - Beike's business model, which focuses on technology-driven residential services, has allowed it to maintain resilience amid industry challenges [9][15]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning and Future Outlook - Beike's positioning as a "technology-driven one-stop new residential service platform" is reshaping capital perceptions of real estate-related stocks, similar to how major tech companies have transformed their respective industries [24]. - The company is actively pursuing a new growth model in the real estate sector, focusing on data-driven residential development services and enhancing user participation in the construction of quality housing [18]. - Beike's strategic initiatives, including the launch of its "Beihome" project, have shown promising results, with significant sales achieved shortly after launch [21]. Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The influx of capital from the Stock Connect is expected to support Beike's stock price in the short term, but the company's long-term growth potential will be tested by its ability to retain this capital [28]. - Beike's "one body, three wings" strategy, which includes a focus on existing housing, home decoration, and rental services, is crucial for navigating market cycles [30]. - The company has committed to returning value to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, reinforcing its long-term growth strategy [31].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公司董事會（「董事會」）欣然宣佈，根據上海證券交易所及深圳證券交易所分別 刊發的公告，本公司A類普通股已獲納入滬港通及深港通（「納入」），自2025年3 月10日起生效。 於納入後，中國大陸的合資格投資者將能夠直接交易本公司的A類普通股。預期 納入將有助於進一步擴大和多元化本公司的投資者基礎，提升本公司交易流動 性，同時通過金融市場在更大程度上與中國大陸的投資者們分享本公司的成長以 及日後的進一步成功。 董事會謹此感謝本公司股東及投資者對本公司的持續支持。本公司將繼續發展業 務，為股東創造價值。 本公司股東及潛在投資者於買賣本公司證券時務請審慎行事。 KE Holdings Inc. 貝殼控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2423） 自願公告 本公司A類普通股獲納入滬港通及深港通 本公告由貝殼控股有限公司（「本公司」）自願作出，旨在向其股東及潛在投資者提 ...