宝丰能源 20260128 摘要 聚烯烃是重要化工品，中国 2023 年表观消费量约为 7,500 万吨，并保 持每年 3-5%的增长。国内聚乙烯存在约 30%的进口依赖，聚丙烯基本 无进口，主要因海外原油成本优势导致聚乙烯价格更具竞争力。 聚乙烯生产工艺主要有油头、煤头和气头路线。油头是主流，占比约 65%，但能耗高；煤头在中国发展较好，因煤炭资源丰富；气头通过轻 质裂解制得。煤制烯烃在油价上涨时具优势，油价低于 60 美元/桶时， 油头路线更具优势。 宝丰能源作为煤制烯烃龙头，单吨盈利优势明显，单吨毛利高于同业 1,500 元以上。2016-2024 年数据显示，其单吨成本比神华低 960 元， 比中煤低 1,440 元，成本优势来自原材料、燃料及动力、人工、折旧等 方面。 宝丰能源通过优化能耗和工艺改进，弥补了原材料采购价格上的劣势， 使其达到了与升华基本相当的水平。在折旧方面，采用 DMTO 三代技术， 单吨投资强度显著降低，内蒙古项目降至 1.6 万元每吨。 Q&A 宝丰能源近期的股价表现如何？其背后的核心原因是什么？ 国内产能方面，2023 年聚乙烯产能约 3,700 万吨，产量 2,800 万吨 ...

2026 年化工策略报告汇报 化工进入击球区：看好全球供 给反内卷大周期，看好全球 AI 需求大周期 20260128 摘要 基础化工行业产能扩张放缓，在建工程与固定资产比值降至低位，叠加 行业协会和龙头企业推动反内卷，有望扭转亏损局面，双碳政策也限制 了新增产能，预示行业盈利能力将恢复。 全球流动性宽松及新兴产业发展驱动需求增长，化工品消费具全球性， 下游产业对海外消费依赖度高，人工智能、机器人等新兴产业对新材料 需求增加，共同推动化工行业景气度提升。 基础化工行业价差虽有复苏但仍处底部，安全度较高，自由现金流自 2022 年以来逐渐改善，预计 2025 年全年转正，预示行业拐点出现， 为投资者带来分红等回报机会，潜在股息率普遍超过 10%。 化工行业估值提升受益于自由现金流转正、投资放缓约束、库存低位和 开工率良好，反内卷及能耗政策约束，以及欧洲企业退出市场，共同推 动化工产品价格上涨。 欧洲化工企业因能源成本、人工成本及供应链效率等问题，长期低开工 率难以恢复，高成本产能逐步退出市场，将导致聚烯烃、有机硅等产品 供应减少，推升全球价格。 Q&A 2026 年至 2030 年化工行业的整体趋势如何？ 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index showing a slight decline, while the Petrochemical ETF has seen significant inflows and growth in net value over the past two years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 29, 2026, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index decreased by 0.27%, with stocks like Sankeshu and Zhongfu Shenying leading gains, while companies like Hebang Bio and China Petroleum faced declines [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) fell by 0.47%, with a latest price of 1.05 yuan and a trading volume of 2.12 billion yuan, indicating active market participation with a turnover rate of 17.99% [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 16 days, totaling 838 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 1.106 billion and a total scale of 1.166 billion yuan, marking a new high [2]. - Over the past two years, the net value of the Petrochemical ETF has increased by 66.80%, with the highest single-month return recorded at 15.86% and the longest consecutive monthly gain spanning 8 months, achieving a maximum increase of 41.6% [2]. - The average return during the rising months of the Petrochemical ETF is 5.25%, and as of January 23, 2026, the one-year Sharpe ratio stands at 2.22 [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Outlook - According to Guosen Securities, the petrochemical sector is strictly implementing capacity reduction and replacement requirements for new refining projects, focusing on upgrading old facilities and demonstrating new technologies [2]. - The refining capacity in China is approaching the policy threshold of 1 billion tons, leading to the gradual consolidation and elimination of smaller capacities, while larger refineries are expected to increase their market share, optimizing the industry structure [2]. - With limited growth in refined oil demand, the transition towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" will be essential for refineries [2]. Group 4: Key Stocks in the Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 56.73% of the index [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On January 28, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after a decline, recovering part of the previous day's losses. The closing price of J2605 was 1684 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the trading volume was 13,284 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1134.5 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%, and the trading volume was 714,203 lots [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coke 2605 contract continued to decline, but the J - value was significantly dull. The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coking coal 2605 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline. The green columns of the MACD of the daily line of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts enlarged for the second consecutive trading day [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On January 28, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1455 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1483 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1640 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1420 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1430 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1660 yuan/ton, all with no change [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: The regulatory policy tightening led to the decline of metal prices with poor fundamentals. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the coal - coke prices rebounded after reaching a low [10]. - Fundamentals: Independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 5 weeks, and the loss amplitude has been expanding for 3 weeks. The coke production has decreased slightly for 2 consecutive weeks after increasing in the first 2 weeks of the year. The port coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the steel mill coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early October last year, while the coking enterprise coke inventory has increased after decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded since January 12, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically remained above 190,000 tons recently. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, while the coking coal inventory of steel enterprises and ports has been relatively stable [10]. - Forecast: The news has a dual impact on the coal - coke futures prices, but the fundamentals change little, resulting in the relative stability of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise. It is advisable to try the strategy of buying for hedging or investment at low prices after the callback stabilizes [11]. Group 5: Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of central enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 2.5 trillion yuan, fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan, and tax payment of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. The investment in strategic emerging industries was 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% of the total investment [12]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12]. - The number and production capacity of open - pit coal mines in China will continue to increase, and their position in the energy supply system will become more important [12]. - By January 25, Wuhai Energy Company completed 1.2284 million tons of raw coal production and 1.0239 million tons of commercial coal sales, achieving a good start [13]. - Haohua Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 419 million yuan and 569 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45.08% - 59.55% [13]. - Baofeng Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 11 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.57% - 89.34% [13]. - In 2025, the raw coal production of large - scale industrial enterprises in Ningxia was 10.28106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13]. - In 2025, Shaanxi added 30.95 million tons/year of coal production capacity, and 10.04 million kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity [13]. - The iron ore "water - rail intermodal transport" business of Hubei Energy Jingzhou Coal Port was officially launched [13]. - Shanxi is promoting economic development and "major project construction year" work [13]. - Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding signed a contract to build 4 + 2 LNG carriers [14]. - Huaibei Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be about 1.495 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.21% [14]. - China National Energy Group opened a new coal supply channel to the central - China region [14]. - Northeast Power Grid's power consumption load reached a record high in late December 2025 [14]. - The daily power generation of Datang Huayin Electric Power's thermal power units reached a record high [14]. - Shanxi Coking expects to be profitable in 2025, but its net profit will decline by more than 50% year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's effective supply of coking coal was close to 480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The net import volume of coking coal decreased for the first time since 2021, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [14]. - In 2025, the freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port reached 42.433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, a record high [14]. - The anti - dumping measures for stainless steel welded pipes originating from China in the Eurasian Economic Union will be extended to November 12, 2026 [14]. - Mongolia plans to produce 90 million tons of coal, 1.9 million tons of copper, and 9.4 million tons of iron ore in 2026 [14]. - India and the EU reached a free - trade agreement on January 27 [14]. - India's coal production target for the 2026 - 27 fiscal year is 1.31 billion tons [15]. - A barge collision accident in Indonesia may affect coal barge transportation [15]. - In 2025, Brazil's Vale's iron ore production reached 336 million tons, a new high since 2018 [15]. - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and oil [15]. - In 2025, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal's coal export volume increased by 11% year - on - year to 57.66 million tons, a four - year high [15]. - India Oil Corporation plans to purchase at least 24 million barrels of Brazilian crude oil in the next two years [15].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is accelerating the mercury-free transformation in the PVC industry, focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts [1] - The transition to mercury-free production requires significant one-time capital expenditure, which may force some small and high-cost producers to exit the market, leading to a contraction in supply and an improvement in the overall supply-demand balance [1] - As of January 28, PVC prices were at 4,615 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -111.5 yuan/ton, indicating that prices and price differences are at the 4.3% and 13.6% percentiles since 2016 [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to see a cyclical turning point by 2026, with supply remaining tight under the third-generation refrigerant quota policy, benefiting leading companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. [2] - The industry is experiencing a recovery from its bottom, with companies like Baofeng Energy and New Chemical Materials showing differentiated performance due to new capacity releases or product price support [2] - Public funds have significantly increased their allocation to the chemical sector in Q4 2025, with a focus on leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [2]

据生意社监测，硫磺01月28日最新价格4203.33元/吨，最近30天上涨14.92%。 相关生产商有：赤天化(600227)红星发展(600367)金瑞矿业(600714)河化股份(000953)华锦股份(000059) 湖北宜化(000422)宝丰能源(600989)恒力石化(600346)等。 据生意社监测，硫磺01月28日最新价格4203.33元/吨，最近30天上涨14.92%。 相关生产商有：赤天化(600227)红星发展(600367)金瑞矿业(600714)河化股份(000953)华锦股份(000059) 湖北宜化(000422)宝丰能源(600989)恒力石化(600346)等。 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4151.24 | 0.27 | | 深证成指 | 14342.89 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4717.99 | 0.26 | | 中小 100 | 8742.72 | 0.19 | | 创业板指 | 3463.33 | (0.37) | 中银晨会聚焦-20260129 ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评—Clawdbot 重塑个人 AI 助理新范式*王君 高天然 Clawdbot 以创新设计推动 AI 向主动执行进化，凸显 AI agent 投资潜力。 【基础化工】化工行业 2026 年度策略—行业周期拐点已近，新材料蓄势腾 飞*余嫄嫄 徐中良 范琦岩 赵泰 2025 年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望 2026 年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反 内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快 速发展，有望开启新一轮高成长。当前行业估值处于低位。维持行业强于大 市评级，推荐三条投资主线。 中银国际证 ...

1月28日，化工板块攻势不减。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后迅速拉 升，而后持续高位震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.2%，截至收盘，涨2.48%，收盘价续创2022年7 月以来新高。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）午后频现溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.42%，反 映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，纯碱、氨纶、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停， 卫星化学、华峰化学飙涨超8%，鲁西化工、桐昆股份、宝丰能源等亦涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部、国家发改委等五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导 意见》。自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电 器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步扩展至钢铁、有色金 属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。 方正证券指出，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%, driven by a "price increase" theme, particularly in resource sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market saw over 3,600 stocks decline, with a total trading volume of 2.97 trillion yuan [1] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, led the market, with significant inflows of over 34.3 billion yuan into the sector [3] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) reached a new high, with an intraday price increase of 7.35% and a closing increase of 6.95%, attracting a net subscription of 1.4 million units [3][5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) also performed well, with a closing increase of 2.48%, marking a new high since July 2022 [7] - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) rose by 1.75%, reflecting strong performance in the semiconductor sector [10] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Economic Factors - International gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][5] - The aluminum price has surged to a nearly four-year high, with spot gold reaching a new record of $5,283 per ounce [5] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions are expected to influence market dynamics, with a dovish stance likely to support the non-ferrous metals market [5] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a price surge, with a notable increase in prices for products like soda ash and nitrogen fertilizers, indicating a potential turning point for the sector [7][9] - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a price increase, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix raising prices significantly for memory products [10][13]

今天，最耀眼的两个板块，无疑是黄金和石油化工。 纽约期金突破5300美元/盎司，现货黄金向上触及5270美元/盎司，续创历史新高；WTI原油期货、布伦 特原油期货，双双上涨。 其中一个，来自美元弱势。 2026年1月27日，美元指数为95.77，跌至近四年最低水平，2026年年初以来，美元指数下跌2.6%。 至此，美元指数和彭博美元现货指数均四连跌，均创去年4月特朗普公布对等关税以来最大四日跌幅。 不过，美国总统特朗普对此却显得云淡风轻，周二被记者问及是否担心美元贬值时，他表示："不，我 认为美元表现很棒。我认为美元的价值——看看我们正在进行的贸易，美元表现出色。" 为何这么强势？ 01、继续狂飙 黄金ETF易方达(159934)今日大涨3.19%，再创历史新高，年内涨21.37%，近3年涨超175%；低费率的化 工行业ETF易方达(516570)涨2.87%。 盘面上，不管是黄金还是原油，都有新的刺激因素。 虽然特朗普不担心美元贬值，但评论认为，美元的跌势还没完。 长期来看，美联储独立性、不断扩大的预算赤字、财政挥霍相关的担忧以及政治两极分化等结构性因 素，正对美元构成下行压力。 有忧，自然就有喜。 首先， ...