2025 年 2 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 昨日（2 月 18 日）中国股票冲高回落。港股涨幅收窄，资讯科技、可选消费 与医疗保健板块领涨，地产与能源板块下跌，南向资金持续净买入 224 亿港 元。A 股回调，机器人、AI 医疗等近期热点概念股下跌，银行等防御性板块 逆势走强。中概股多数下跌。中国股票估值仍有吸引力，2025年恒生指数与 恒生科技指数动态 PE 约 10 倍和 18.5 倍，沪深 300 指数和创业板指数动态 PE 约 13.2 倍和 23.5 倍，而 MSCI 日本指数动态 PE 约 15.5 倍，MSCI 印度 指数和标普印度科技指数动态 PE 约 21 倍和 27.6 倍。 欧股再创新高。军工股持续大涨，特朗普希望减少美国对欧洲的防卫开支， 要求北约成员国将国防预算从 GDP 的 2%提高至 5%，投资者预期欧洲将增 加军费开支以自主承担更多安全责任。银行股领涨，估值优势和股票回购等 因素支撑银行股。年初以来，部分国际资金从美国科技股切换至欧洲股票， 令欧股跑赢美股。目前欧股仍有估值吸引力，欧元区斯托克指数 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [4]. Core Insights - The recent meeting held by President Xi Jinping aimed to reassure private enterprises amidst external pressures, particularly in the context of "Trade Friction 2.0" and the intensifying global AI competition [2][6]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of private enterprises in technological advancement and social stability, signaling a commitment to dismantle barriers that hinder their development [6][12]. - Historical context shows that significant support policies for private enterprises have been issued during times of economic challenge, indicating a pattern of governmental support in response to external pressures [3][7]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On February 17, 2025, President Xi Jinping attended a meeting with private enterprises, marking a significant event after six years [1]. Event Commentary - The meeting's timing is crucial as it coincides with heightened external pressures and aims to provide a "calming pill" for private enterprises, which is different from past responses that came after crises [2][6]. - The focus on the "two unwavering principles" reinforces the government's support for private enterprises and aims to address historical issues such as financing difficulties [6][12]. Historical Review - The report outlines three major historical support policies for private enterprises, highlighting the government's adaptive strategies in response to economic conditions [3][7]. Industry Focus - The meeting included representatives from key sectors such as new energy vehicles, advanced manufacturing, and biotechnology, aligning with the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][11]. - Notable absences from the meeting included major companies like Baidu and SenseTime, indicating a shift in industry leadership and focus [3][8]. New Productive Forces - The report discusses the importance of enhancing total factor productivity as a means to navigate external trade pressures and technological competition [12]. - The emergence of companies like DeepSeek is seen as a positive signal for the confidence of private enterprises in the face of global challenges [12].

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Positive" with expectations for the industry index to outperform the market index by over 5% in the next six months [39]. Core Insights - The communication sector has shown steady growth, with traditional businesses performing well and innovative applications being actively developed. Despite recent market adjustments, valuation levels are recovering, and companies are exploring new growth points based on current performance [5][36]. - The communication industry has experienced a cumulative increase of 4.08% this year, ranking 8th among 30 sectors in the CITIC index, indicating a mid-to-high level performance [11]. Market Review - From February 10 to February 16, 2025, the CITIC communication sector rose by 3.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.01 percentage points. The sector's performance ranked 6th among CITIC's primary industries during this period [11][12]. - As of February 14, the CITIC communication sector's PE TTM was 22.64 times, positioned at the 25.69 percentile [13]. Industry Data for 2024 - The total telecom business revenue reached 1.74 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a 10% growth in telecom business volume at constant prices [3][31]. - By the end of 2024, the number of mobile phone users reached 1.956 billion, with 5G users accounting for 1.014 billion, representing 56.7% of total mobile users [32]. - The total number of 5G base stations reached 4.251 million, making up 33.6% of all mobile base stations [34]. Mobile Device Market - In 2024, the domestic smartphone shipment reached 314 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 86.4% of total shipments [4][30]. - In December 2024, smartphone shipments were 34.528 million units, up 22.1% year-on-year, with 5G smartphones at 30.433 million units, reflecting a 25.8% increase [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook, focusing on operators with sustained profit growth and enhanced network value, companies benefiting from traffic growth and computing networks, and high-quality firms with continuous investment in technological innovation [5][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the media industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 9.54%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices during the same period [12][19] - The film "Nezha" has broken the 12 billion yuan box office mark, setting a new record in Chinese cinema [40][44] - AI applications are rapidly growing, with DeepSeek surpassing 100 million users and significant increases in downloads for leading AI products [23][28] Market Performance - The media sector ranked first among sub-industries with a weekly increase of 9.54%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.30% [12] - The film and cinema sector experienced the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 35.78% due to strong performance during the Spring Festival [12] Industry Key Data AI Applications - DeepSeek's user base has quickly surpassed 100 million, with a notable increase in downloads for top AI products [23] - ChatGPT's web traffic reached 3.98 billion visits in January, reflecting a 4.31% increase [24] Gaming - Tencent's products dominated the gaming sales charts, with "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" leading the top three [33] - The game "Endless Winter" continues to perform well in overseas markets, contributing to significant revenue growth [36] Film - The total box office for the week reached 45.67 billion yuan, with "Nezha" leading the charts and achieving a cumulative box office of over 120 billion yuan [40][46] - Upcoming films include "Your Color," directed by renowned Japanese director Naoko Yamada, which is expected to perform well upon release [48]

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：4Q24 货币政策执行报告点评：宽松继续， 节奏审慎 证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 17 日 | [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] | [b_Suy 今日预览 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | | 电话： | | | Email： | | | | 研究分享>> | | |  【银行】戴志锋：4Q24 货币政策执行报告点评：宽松继续，节奏审慎 | | |  【通信】陈宁玉：Deepseek+带来的运营商云与 AIDC 价值重估 | | |  【科技】孙行臻：国家数据集团组建在即，数据要素市场化改革步入深 | | | 水期 | 对稳汇率的表态更为强硬，关注度有提升。将 3Q24 货币政策报告中"防止形成单边一致性预期并 自我实现，坚决防范汇率超调风险"，修订为"增强外汇市场韧性，加强外汇市场管理，坚决对市 场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调风险"，表态更为 强硬，对稳汇率的关注度有提升。 对压降实体融资成本的目标未 ...

今天标题起的有点大，但恐怕现在关心股债跷跷板效应的人非常多，中午发债券帖子《 从央妈的视角看债市 》的时候，30年国债日内上了1bp左 右，我们文中预估30年国债这轮可能上行到1.95%的位置，结果下午就加速上行，日终来到了1.89%的位置，也就离预测的点位差个5bps左右了。 从资金层面来看， 明天可能会是个非常重要的临界点。 第一，对央妈来说，降低企业和居民融资成本的目标不变 。今天的民营企业座谈会上，领导提到的是" 继续下大气力解决民营企业融资难融资 贵问题"，所以，利率没有趋势反转的政策背景。 第二，地产的风险尚未解决 。昨天，在《 央妈四季报的解读 》里我们提到过，对三大风险——地方债、地产、中小金融机构，央妈的定调是 地方债风险化解"取得重要的阶段性成效"，而后两者，显然还没有，同时，地方债风险化解的阶段性成效的基础，也是低利率的发债环境，这 是其二。 第三，资金的配置需求依然踊跃 。我们可以看到，在股市的结构性行情下，红利被科技股压得喘不过气来，而在资金收紧的情况下，短债到长 债的调整，开始传递，但另一块资产， 公募reits，今日上涨0.63%，几乎刷新收盘价的历史新高 ，证明在配置盘（险资） ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The domestic market experienced a low open followed by a high close, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3346.72 points, up 0.43%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10749.46 points, up 1.16% [1][4] - Among 30 first-level industries, 16 saw an increase, with notable gains in the computer, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors, while comprehensive finance, real estate, and retail sectors faced significant declines [1][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 17448 billion, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] Domestic Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3346.72 points, increasing by 14.24 points or 0.43% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10749.46 points, increasing by 122.83 points or 1.16% [4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.8%, and the STAR Market 50 Index increased by 0.53% [4] - The trading volume for the entire A-share market was 17448 billion, slightly down from the previous day [4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, the S&P 500 down 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.41% [2][4] - Notable declines were seen in Procter & Gamble, which fell over 4%, and Travelers Group, which dropped nearly 2% [2] - Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with notable increases in companies like WeRide, which surged 83.46%, and Kingsoft Cloud, which rose about 20% [2][4] Key Economic Data - In January, M2 grew by 7% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 0.4% [10][13] - New RMB loans in January amounted to 5.13 trillion, with a total social financing scale increase of 7.06 trillion, which is 583.3 billion more than the same period last year [10][13] - The total social financing scale stock reached 415.2 trillion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [10][13]

极越办公室：几百人熬了一天，等来一个月社保。 12 月 12 日下午，数百极越员工出现在极越汽车位于上海嘉定的总部园区，有的来要说法（因为社 保断缴了），有的想搬东西走来抵扣拖欠的工资；还有一些人只想拿回自己的物品。未获入门许可 的供应商现场建微信群，接龙被极越拖欠的货款。12 日晚，百度和吉利已经决定转账，为极越员 工缴纳拖欠的 11 月社保。 赛力斯或赴港上市，筹资超 10 亿美元。 据媒体报道，赛力斯近期在讨论赴港上市事宜，最快明年完成 IPO，筹资超 10 亿美元。不过，相 关上市计划仍在审议中，发行规模等细节或有变动。赛力斯原名小康股份，于 2016 年 6 月在 A 股 上市。今年以来，受与华为合作的 AITO 问界品牌销量暴增等因素影响，赛力斯 A 股股价累计上 涨约 80%，公司市值目前为 2067 亿元。 保时捷日本 CEO 尉岚峰将成为保时捷中国副总裁兼 COO。 12 月 12 日，保时捷宣布，保时捷日本 CEO 尉岚峰 (Philipp von Witzendorff) 将从明年 1 月 1 日起 出任保时捷中国副总裁兼 COO。过去两年间，尉岚峰通过改进销售策略、客户体验，扩大了保时 ...

真正意义上的"全球Robotaxi第一股"。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，北京时间2024年11月27日晚间小马智行正式在纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码 为"PONY" ，成为"全球Robotaxi第一股"。 小马智行在本次IPO中总计发行2000万股ADS，发行价为每股13美元，位于拟定发行区间顶部。其 中，北汽集团和新加坡交通运营商康福德高作为基石投资者参与了小马智行的本次IPO发行；同时， 小马智行还同步进行了约1.534亿美元的战略定向增发，包括广汽集团全资子公司广汽资本在内的多 个投资方参与定向增发。即， 若执行"绿鞋机制"， 小马智行本次IPO募资总规模将至多为约4.52亿 美元 。 事实上，鉴于投资者对小马智行IPO的认购热情空前高涨，小马智行本次在发行过程中扩大了IPO规 模。另 据「IPO早知道」从接近本次小马智行IPO的投行人士处获悉，小马智行启动IPO招股后实现 超额认购，参与认购的机构除了已公开的北汽集团和康福德高，还包括小马智行多个老股东以及多家 国际顶尖投资机构 。 小马智行今日登陆纳斯达克，某种程度上而言 ...

投资地平线是高瓴投早期的经典打法。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，Horizon Robotics（以下简称"地平线"）于2024年10月24日正式以"9660"为 股票代码在港交所主板挂牌上市。 成立至今，地平线已获得高瓴、五源资本、红杉中国、真格基金、嘉实投资等知名机构，以及大众集 团、上汽集团、广汽资本、长城汽车、奇瑞汽车、一汽集团、比亚迪、宁德时代等众多车企资本及产 业链上下游企业的投资。在本次IPO发行中，阿里巴巴、百度、达飞集团和宁波国资基金作为基石投 资者累计认购约2.2亿美元，以示对地平线未来长期发展的看好。 其中， 高瓴自2 015 年地平线的种子轮融资起，9年间总计完成对地平线的7轮投资。IPO前，高瓴 是地平线最大的财务投资方之一，高瓴 创始合伙人李良 担任地平线非执行董事 。 地平线创始人余凯回忆，他和高瓴认识时，地平线团队尚未完成组建，而想做的事在很多人看来又 是"难且巨大"，但高瓴很快做出了投资决定，并介绍了更多投资人入场。 张磊还鼓励余凯，要享受 这一段不被更多人理解的创业时间，"别人都把你当傻子时，正 ...