李若熙 17611619787，lirx@avicsec.com 行情回顾 （2.07-2.21） 申万农林牧渔行业（-2.10%），申万行业排名（28/31）； 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：中航证券研究） 如您需要报告全文，可联系研究所销售团队： 陈艺丹 18611188969，chenyd@avicsec.com 李裕淇 18674857775，liyuq@avicsec.com 李友琳 18665808487，liyoul@avicsec.com 交易上，关注产能去化趋势中的板块机会。一是生猪周期轮转不止，配合"反内卷"政策引导，产能有望合理调减，猪价预期和生猪板块走势有望演绎。二 是生猪行业优势企业价值属性增强。长期稳态下生猪养殖产业整体将保持一定的利润水平，而行业具备养殖管理和成本优势的企业望保持较好盈利能力。 行业前期产能扩张的财务压力释放，产业优质企业的自由现金流大幅改善，支撑相关生猪企业估值。三是生猪行业优势企业红利属性增强。优质养殖企业 重视并不断提升股东回报，生猪板块优质标的的长期红利属性和配置价值有望愈加显著。四是生猪头部企业推进全球 ...

Group 1: Agriculture Industry Insights - The domestic pet consumption market is evolving from basic needs to emotional narratives, driving upgrades in pet food and medical services, indicating a new growth phase for the industry [6] - The USDA's February report predicts a stable beef price outlook for 2026, with increased global soybean ending stocks due to South American production [9][11] - The domestic pet medical market is expected to expand significantly, driven by pet aging and the need for better healthcare services, with a low current chain rate indicating room for consolidation [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Services Industry Strategy - The Spring Festival holiday data shows a 9.6% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow, indicating strong demand for travel and services [14] - Hotel industry performance improved significantly during the holiday, with a 30.7% increase in REVPAR, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [14] - The domestic retail and catering sectors saw an 8.6% increase in average daily sales during the holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [14] Group 3: Automotive Industry Analysis - The report highlights Sensata Technologies as a leading global supplier in automotive exterior parts, benefiting from a diversified product range and a strong cash flow for R&D [16] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing electric vehicle market, with significant revenue expected from battery box sales in Europe [17] - Sensata is expanding into new sectors such as robotics and liquid cooling, indicating a strategic diversification of its product offerings [18] Group 4: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report emphasizes the potential of the non-ferrous metals sector, with macroeconomic conditions favoring price recovery and demand growth driven by emerging industries [19][20] - The Southern China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with strong liquidity and a comprehensive product line from a leading fund manager [22] - The index's performance is expected to outperform the broader market, supported by strong earnings growth from major companies in the sector [21]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4147 | 0.72 | 0.27 | 1.6 | | 深证综指 | 2746 | 1.21 | 0.01 | 2.46 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 5.01 | | 中盘指数 | 1.39 | 0.21 | 21.94 | | 小盘指数 | 1.59 | -0.96 | 15.17 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小金属Ⅱ | 7.77 | 11.75 | 60.09 | | 冶钢原料 | 5.65 | 5.49 | 59.48 | | 房地产服务 | 5.41 | 7.08 | 4.44 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 5.04 | 3.31 | 3.25 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | ...

Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing a strategic focus on high-quality brand companies with efficient organization, with a recommendation for leading companies such as Guibao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The emotional narrative is driving an upgrade in consumer concepts, with the pet ownership philosophy evolving from basic survival to a focus on health and emotional resonance [2] - The expanding demographic of young, educated pet owners is expected to boost both physical consumption of pet food and the potential for pet medical services, propelling the domestic pet industry into a new development phase [2] Group 2: Food Sector - The emotional and anthropomorphic narratives are reshaping the consumer landscape, where trust and professional endorsement are crucial for brands to win consumer loyalty [3] - E-commerce is entering a phase of stock competition and value marketing, making comprehensive operational capabilities essential for brand success [3] - The domestic pet food industry is likely to accelerate towards a phase where quality brands will prevail, as the market dynamics favor those with supply chain control and a commitment to R&D [3] Group 3: Medical Sector - The pet medical market in China is still young, with lower coverage and revenue per store compared to mature markets, indicating significant growth potential driven by scientific pet care and pet aging [4] - The low chain rate and fragmented market structure present opportunities for leading pet hospital groups to consolidate market share through advantages in supply chain, talent, and technology [4] - The development of the pet medical sector is expected to drive growth in the upstream pharmaceutical market, with significant room for domestic products to replace imported ones [4] Group 4: Supplies Sector - The cat litter segment remains a high-frequency necessity with long-term expansion potential, while emerging brands like Xu Cuihua are expected to maintain their leading positions through high-end product strategies and self-owned manufacturing capabilities [5] - Leading pet supplies manufacturers are accelerating their transformation by enhancing their own brand development and distribution capabilities, which is likely to increase their market share and profitability [5]

证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 行业研究 美国关税政策再生变，对华关税迎边际下降——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 9 日至 2 月 15 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-4 BP 至 0 BP。 本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持零发行，其余品种发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比减少， 企业债净融资额增加，其余品种净融资额减少，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，其余品种净融资额为 正 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月24日 悦己消费产业链研究专题 优于大市 从刚需渗透到情感叙事，宠物消费下半场如何展开 情感叙事推动消费理念进阶，国内宠物消费升级进行时。目前国内年轻高知 养宠群体规模快速扩大，养宠理念正逐步从满足基础生存的"养活"进阶为 追求健康与情感共鸣的"养好"，未来其一方面将推动宠物食品等实物消费 升级，另一方面也将加速宠物医疗等服务消费潜力释放，进而驱动国内宠物 产业步入新发展阶段。 食品：情感叙事重构人货场，国牌升级与新渠道协同发力，强者愈强。在情 感化、拟人化驱动的新消费叙事下，信任建立与专业背书是品牌赢得消费者 心智、保持品牌势能的关键落脚点。同时电商渠道已经进入存量竞争、价值 营销时代，品牌商全域运营能力将成为决胜关键。因此我们认为无限货架虽 给国内市场终局带来未知数，但市场终将属于具备供应链自控能力、持续投 入研发并善于传递品牌价值的长期主义者。国内宠食行业或在后半场加速走 向"良币驱逐劣币"阶段，优质品牌商有望穿越周期成为胜者。 医疗：猫狗老龄化激发消费潜力，连锁化有望铸就龙头。1）医院端：国内 宠物医疗市场尚年轻，覆盖率、单店流水明显低于海外成熟市场水平。未来 在科学 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][7] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with specific commodities showing signs of price stabilization and potential upward trends [1][3][4] - The USDA's February supply and demand report indicates adjustments in global inventory levels for various crops, impacting market dynamics [1][2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production is forecasted to decrease by 1 million tons to 1.296 billion tons, with a reduction in ending stocks ratio by 0.17 percentage points to 22.21% [14][15] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.56% and a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [17] Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a 2.5 million ton increase in global soybean production, with ending stocks rising by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.55% [33][34] - Domestic soybean meal prices are showing strong support, with expectations for Brazilian soybean supply to increase post-March 2026 [35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to decrease by 370,000 tons, with ending stocks ratio down by 0.10 percentage points to 33.68% [47][48] - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2531 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.78% [50] Sugar - The market anticipates a stable supply of sugar due to favorable weather conditions, with prices expected to remain weak [2][4] Cotton - Global cotton production is projected to decline, while demand is expected to rise, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance [2][4] Beef - The report forecasts a stable upward trend in U.S. beef prices, with a projected decrease in production for 2026 [3][4] - Domestic beef prices are expected to stabilize due to reduced supply and increased demand [3] Dairy - U.S. milk ending stocks are slightly adjusted upwards, with expectations for domestic milk prices to rise due to supply constraints [3][4] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase slightly, with prices anticipated to remain high [4][6] Poultry - The U.S. chicken market is expected to recover, with domestic demand supporting price stabilization [6][4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in livestock, pork, poultry, and feed sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][7]

研 行 行业周报 业 美国关税政策再生变，对华关税迎边际下降 ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 究 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC | NO： | S1150521120002 | 2026 | 年 02 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 轻工制造 纺织服饰 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | 行业要闻  | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | （1）美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法。 | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com 022-23839135 | | （2）特朗普新加征关税税率加码至 | | 15%。 | | | | | | | 研子究行助业理评级 | | 重要公司公告  | | | | | | | | 证 | 家居用品 造纸 | 中性 中性 | （1）探路者：公司拟对 万股股权激励。 72 | | 名员工进行 672.68 | | ...

国泰海通发布研报称，2026年1月，淘天宠物与炼丹炉大数据联合发布《宠物行业新品趋势报告》显 示，时令节日仪式感消费已成为"它经济"的核心增长极，"新年宠物礼盒"这一搜索关键词在天猫平台上 的同比增速便已经达到了20%+。根据天猫数据，宠物过年衣服销量实现330%的大幅增长，宠物年夜饭 实现290%的增长。此外，春节后，华南与华北区域举办规模领先的宠物展会，国内头部品牌预计在展 会上推出新品，值得关注。 养殖：春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏 春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏。春节后预计需求淡而供给多，预期价格进入淡季节奏。事实上腊月小年 后，春节备货已经开始逐步下降，接下来节后的屠宰场正月初七和初八正式开工后，价格将进入低价和 养殖亏损阶段。关注低猪价下的产能去化情况。 标的方面 生猪推荐标的：牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)；后周期推荐标的：科前生物 (688526.SH)、海大集团(002311.SZ)。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物(300138.SZ)、诺普信 (002215.SZ)、荃银高科（维权）(300087.SZ)、国投丰乐(000713.SZ)，相关标的：康农种业 (30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pet economy sector, highlighting its rapid growth during the Spring Festival [4][7]. Core Insights - The pet consumption during the Spring Festival has seen significant growth, with a 20%+ year-on-year increase in searches for "New Year pet gift boxes" on Tmall. The sales of pet clothing surged by 330%, and pet New Year's dinners increased by 290% [7]. - The report emphasizes the comprehensive nature of pet services, with a 46% month-on-month increase in pet boarding demand. The expansion of pet transport services on high-speed trains and airlines is also noted [7]. - Upcoming pet exhibitions in March are expected to further stimulate market interest, with major brands likely to launch new products [7]. Summary by Sections Important Industry Data Overview - The agricultural sector index stands at 2,858.1, with a year-on-year increase of 14.28%. The wholesale price index for agricultural products is at 129.6, reflecting a 4.95% year-on-year increase [10]. - The average price of live pigs is 12.3 yuan/kg, down 15.81% year-on-year, while the average price of piglets is 471.0 yuan/head, down 25.24% year-on-year [10]. Pig Farming Sector - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in pig prices post-Spring Festival, with expectations of low prices leading to potential losses in farming [5][12]. - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional recommendations in the agricultural product supply chain [5]. Poultry Sector - The report discusses the white feather broiler market, noting a decrease in chick prices and stable prices for broiler meat [19][20]. - The average price of broiler chicks is reported at 2.4 yuan/chick, with a 4.35% increase month-on-month [10]. Feed Sector - The report indicates stable feed prices, with corn prices at 2,372.2 yuan/ton and soybean meal prices at 3,167.7 yuan/ton [10][30]. - The analysis highlights the fluctuations in import prices for soybeans and corn, impacting the feed sector [32]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Muyuan Foods projected at 2.54 yuan for 2025 and 4.81 yuan for 2026, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [36]. - Other companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Petty Holdings also receive "Overweight" ratings, indicating strong growth potential [36].