证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 有色金属 反内卷与逼仓情绪升温，铜价创历史新高 贵金属：长期宽松预期不变，金银再创新高。周内美国 2025 年三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率 初值 4.3%，大幅高于预期值 3.3%和前值 3.8%；实际 GDP 同比 2.3%，高于前值 2.1%和 2000 年至今的均值 2.2%。三季度 PCE 通胀、核心 PCE 通胀环比折年率分别为 2.8%、2.9%， 高于前值 2.1%、2.6%。若将净出口、存货变化、政府支出剔除，则三季度美国实际 GDP 环 比折年率为 2.6%，略高于二季度的 2.5%和 2022 年以来的均值 2.3%。与 GDP 增长形成反 差的在就业市场，11 月 ADP 就业人数仅-3.2 万人，季调后非农就业 6.4 万人，两项数据均 显示美国就业市场仍处于疲软状态，我们认为美联储仍有降息的必要性，流动性宽松预期仍 然利好金银价格上涨。此外，白银现货租赁利率在今年 10 月一度超过 35%，近期仍维持在 6%左右的高位，远高于正常融资成本，也反映出实物白银出借意愿极低，现货市场供应紧 张，本周白 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 华龙证券认为，金属景气度有望维持。铜中期的供应偏紧，市场普遍预期2026年前后，精炼铜将出现供 需关系拐点，随后转入紧缺。需求方面，美国2026年经济增速预期良好，美联储当前"预防性降息"的思 路为软着陆提供多一层保障。在供需关系趋势性转折的节点上，供给提供支撑，需求决定弹性，看好 2026年以铜、铝为代表的工业金属表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证工业有色金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀 土、中国铝业、云铝股份、兴业银锡、华友钴业、铜陵有色、江西铜业、神火股份、西部矿业，前十大 权重股合计占比54.56%。 工业有色ETF（560860）紧密跟踪中证工业有色金属主题指数，覆盖铜、铝、稀土等战略资源龙头，场 外投资者可通过联接（A类：018489；C类：018490）布局顺周期与政策红利共振机遇。 2025年12月26日盘中，有色金属板块涨幅居前，截至 13:53，中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)强势 上涨3.94%，成分股江西铜业10cm涨停，金诚信上涨8.76%，中国铝业上涨7.57%，铜陵有色、云南铜业 等个股跟涨。工业有色E ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is experiencing a structural characteristic with a focus on thematic investments, particularly in the technology sector, as it approaches the spring market window [3] - The market has shown resilience, with the China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) recently experiencing a slight increase of 0.32% and a net inflow of 280 million yuan over the past ten days [1] - The China Securities Dividend Index has demonstrated a 92% increase over the past decade, while its valuation has decreased by approximately 11%, indicating that the excess returns are driven by genuine profit growth and stable dividends rather than valuation expansion [5][8] Group 2 - The management's ongoing efforts to promote long-term capital inflows, combined with a low-interest-rate environment, present opportunities for investment in the banking sector [4] - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) has a current scale of 8.564 billion yuan and has distributed dividends 15 times since its inception, with a total dividend amount of 3.85 yuan per ten shares, suggesting a stable and predictable income stream suitable for long-term asset portfolios [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth and production statistics of China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) industry, projecting a slight increase in production for 2025 and providing insights into investment opportunities within the sector [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of October 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production is expected to reach 3.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [1]. - Cumulative production from January to October 2025 is projected to be 37.753 million tons, indicating a cumulative growth of 2% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Dongyangguang (600673), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), and Minfa Aluminum (002578) [1]. Group 3: Research and Consulting - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Province is leveraging the opportunity of China's aluminum industry layout adjustment to develop a green aluminum industry, significantly increasing electrolytic aluminum production capacity and attracting major companies to establish operations in the region [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Development - The Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park is a key development area, covering nearly 10,000 acres and featuring modern facilities for electrolytic aluminum production [1][3]. - The park aims to develop 2.03 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 600,000 tons of recycled aluminum, creating a complete industrial cycle from raw materials to aluminum applications [3][6]. - Yunnan's abundant green energy resources provide a competitive advantage for the development of electrolytic aluminum, which is a high-energy-consuming industry [3][6]. Group 2: Company Initiatives - Shandong Weiqiao Group's subsidiary, Yunnan Hongtai New Materials Co., primarily uses green electricity for its 2.03 million tons green aluminum project, which consumes approximately 28.5 billion kWh annually [5][6]. - Henan Shenhuo Group's Yunnan Shenhuo Aluminum Co. is implementing a 900,000-ton green hydropower aluminum project, incorporating 5G technology for smart factory construction [6]. - Yunnan Aluminum Industry has established a complete industrial chain in various parks, achieving a 96% local processing conversion rate for primary aluminum [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Yunnan's green aluminum industry generated over 180 billion yuan in output value in the first 11 months of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in added value [7]. - The total output value for the green aluminum industry is expected to approach 200 billion yuan for the year, marking it as a new growth driver for Yunnan's industrial development [7].

证券日报网讯12月24日，神火股份（000933）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至12月20日，公司 的股东人数是6.45万户。 ...

信达证券研报指出，神火股份耕耘行业二十余载，煤铝双核共助企业成长。该行判断铝行业仍处于景气 上行周期，原料端成本回落与铝价高位运行形成的盈利剪刀差持续扩大，电解铝高盈利格局有望延续； 叠加煤炭价格上涨推动煤炭业务盈利边际改善，公司较非煤铝企具备更强业绩弹性，配置价值显著，建 议重点关注。截至12月19日，神火股份2025年PE为11.2倍，低于4家可比公司平均值13.3倍。截至12月 19日收盘价，预测公司2025-2027年归属于母公司的净利润分别为53、62、68亿元；对应PE为11.2x、 9.6x、8.7x。首次覆盖给予公司"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with notable gains for Wuliangye, Huayou Cobalt, and Tianzhen Co., with target price increases of 94.87%, 20.38%, and 20.27% respectively, across the liquor, energy metals, and home goods industries [1] - On December 22, a total of 21 listed companies received broker recommendations, with Wuxin Media, Shenkai Co., and Xinbo Co. each receiving one recommendation [1] - There was one instance of a rating upgrade on December 22, where Dongwu Securities raised the rating of Huasheng Lithium from "Hold" to "Buy" [1] Group 2 - On December 22, brokers provided 13 instances of initial coverage, with Shenkai Co. and Xinbo Co. receiving "Buy" ratings from Aijian Securities, Tianzhen Co. receiving an "Increase" rating from Tianfeng Securities, Hezhu Intelligent receiving an "Increase" rating from Northeast Securities, and Shenhuo Co. receiving a "Buy" rating from Xinda Securities [1]

郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 23 日 人民币升值，"结汇潮"的助推——汇率双周报系列之六 10 月中旬以来，美元小幅贬值背景下、人民币大幅升值；这一非对称的涨 势引发了市场对"年终结汇"的热议。本轮升值是不是结汇推动、后续人 民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，供参考。 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3917 | 0.69 | 2.15 | 1.28 | | 深证综指 | 2493 | 1.13 | 5.16 | 1.56 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.86 | 3.48 | 20.31 | | 中盘指数 | 1.42 | 6.66 | 29.76 | | 小盘指数 | 1.12 | 5.06 | 25.03 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | ...