钢铁 钢铁行业报告 同步大市-B(首次) 执业登记编码：S1190521010002 邮箱：zhanggengyao@sxzq.com 供给侧：在"双控"与绿色转型约束下，行业格局正经历存量优化与集中 度提升。当前，在产能产量"双控"政策的持续约束下，粗钢产量尽管相对刚 性，但基本没有增长，维持在 9.6 亿吨-10.7 亿吨。行业 CR10 集中度提升至 约 43%。发展主线已转向存量结构优化：一方面，高端产品国产替代持续推 进，电工钢等品种结构性增长，但"高进低出"的进出口价差仍揭示高端领域 存在短板；另一方面，刚性推进的超低排放改造带来显著成本压力，推动环 保绩效领先企业进一步巩固优势。 拥抱"新质生产力"，五类差异化路径引领未来格局：企业的生存与发展 将直接取决于其在高附加值产品、绿色生产与资源控制等维度上的实质性布 局。成功突围的企业需要深度融入"新质生产力"所强调的科技创新与高质量 发展，主要呈现为五类清晰路径：1）技术引领型：以研发驱动，突破高端 特钢等"卡脖子"材料。代表企业为太钢不锈、中信特钢等 2）服务延伸型： 从材料商升级为产业链解决方案提供商。代表企业为南钢、鞍钢等。其核心 上市公司分 ...

Core Insights - The implementation of the "Interim Regulations on Accounting Treatment of Enterprise Data Resources" in January 2024 has allowed data assets to be included in financial statements, leading to significant benefits for early adopters [2] Group 1: Financing Opportunities - Data assets have become a new source of financing, allowing companies to secure funding without relying solely on physical assets like factories and land [2] - Over 10 companies among the 100 that included data assets in their financial statements have successfully obtained financing through data pledges, totaling over 55 million yuan [3] Group 2: Financial Optimization - The inclusion of data assets in financial statements has led to improved financial metrics, with some companies experiencing a decrease in debt ratios despite an overall increase in liabilities for data-native companies [4] - For instance, companies like Zhongwen Online and China Mobile saw their data asset inclusion amounts surge by 15.59 times and 8.8 times, respectively, indicating a strategic investment in data collection and platform development [4] Group 3: Industry Winners - Not all industries have benefited equally; three sectors have emerged as the biggest winners in leveraging data assets: public utilities/infrastructure, telecommunications/information technology, and manufacturing/agriculture [5] - Companies such as Shandong Expressway and Qingdao Port have successfully utilized clear and non-sensitive data for financing, while data-native companies like Daily Interaction and Zhuochuang Information derive nearly 90% of their revenue from data-related businesses [5] Group 4: Successful Case Studies - Shandong Expressway used traffic flow data as collateral to secure financing, while Digital China obtained 30 million yuan in bank credit through data assets [6] - The case of Minqing Public Transport, which created a high-quality data set from vehicle operation data, illustrates the potential for county-level companies to access financing through data pledges [6] - Qingdao Port's port scheduling data enabled it to secure 230 million yuan in credit, demonstrating the value of data over traditional physical assets [6] Group 5: Strategic Insights - Companies are encouraged to prioritize clear and non-sensitive self-owned data for asset inclusion, avoiding privacy-related data risks [9] - Staying aligned with the regulatory framework and leveraging local data bureau support can help reduce costs associated with data rights confirmation and valuation [9] - Although initial investments in data governance and auditing may be necessary, the long-term benefits include easier access to financing and improved financial health [9]

风险提示："中证国有企业红利指数(000824)由中证指数有限公司（"中证"）编制和计算，其所有权归属 中证及/或其指定的第三方。中证对于标的指数的实时性、准确性、完整性和特殊目的的适用性不作任 何明示或暗示的担保，不因标的指数的任何延迟、缺失或错误对任何人承担责任（无论是否存在过 失）。中证对于跟踪标的指数的产品不作任何担保、背书、销售或推广，中证不承担与此相关的任何责 任。"本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用完全复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、标的指数变更、指数编制机构停止服务、 成份股停牌或退市等潜在风险。本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投 资、兑付责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构 成对本基金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品 资料 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-27锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 1.基本面：2026年春节假期期间，硅锰价格维持平稳，合金厂开工波动不大，展望节后市场，硅锰预计仍将面临成本高位 与供应宽松的双重博弈。成本端，锰矿价格维持偏强运行，内蒙古及南方地区电价存在上涨预期，焦炭价格维持高位，预 计节后硅锰综合成本将易涨难跌，为现货价格提供了较强的底部支撑。供应端，内蒙古新增产能仍有个别工厂存在点火预 期，另外，宁夏厂家库存高位，若终端需求复苏不及预期，硅锰供应端压力将进一步凸显。总体来看，硅锰市场将维持震 荡运行态势。受成本支撑影响，硅锰价格下行空间有限，但供应端压制导致价格上冲的动力不足，需重点观望新增产能点 火，主产区电价波动情况以及主流钢厂招标定价情况；中性 ...

来源：华创期货 【摘要】周三，螺纹钢主力合约在前低支撑位附近企稳大涨并形成"底分型"技术形态，成交量大幅增 加。 供应端：极度克制的复产节奏 根据Mysteel最新统计数据显示，截至2026年2月20日当周，全国137家主流钢厂螺纹钢周产量为170.38万 吨，环比增加1.22万吨，增幅0.72%；同比减少26.53万吨，降幅13.47%。将时间轴拉长来看，春节后第 一周产量维持在170万吨左右的水平，放在历史同期中属于偏低位置。这背后折射出的不是简单的节假 日效应，而是钢厂复产意愿的持续低迷。这种"克制"源于多重因素，利润率的压制首当其冲。尽管焦炭 价格经过多轮提降后，钢厂即期利润有所修复，但考虑到成材现货价格持续疲软，多数内陆及高成本产 区的钢厂依然处于盈亏平衡线甚至微亏状态，复产的经济动力不足。更重要的是，市场普遍预期的2026 年粗钢产量调控政策，使得钢厂在生产计划上更加谨慎，不敢轻易大规模复产，以免在后续的政策窗口 期陷入被动。因此，供给端的低产量，本质上是在市场自发调节与政策预期引导双重作用下形成的"新 常态"，这为价格的底部提供了一层薄薄的缓冲垫。 需求端：表象冰点下的复苏曙光 【温馨提醒】市场 ...

内容概况：近年来，我国工业链条行业持续加大硬件设备投入，推动企业实施机电一体化改造，成功推 出一系列高强度、高效率的专业化产品，使得中小规格工业链条在性能与工艺合理性方面取得显著进 步。与此同时，国内工业化与城镇化的深入推进，带动了物流、交通、食品生产等相关产业的持续发 展，为工业链条产品提供了广阔的市场空间。行业整体制造实力的提升与下游需求的扩张，共同推动了 工业链条行业的稳步增长与产业环境的优化。据统计，2015-2025年中国工业链条行业市场规模从 326.31亿元增长至863.2亿元，年复合增长率为10%。工业链条作为机械传动领域的重要组成部分，其技 术与应用持续演进，从传统的动力传递逐步扩展至现代自动化生产体系，始终发挥着不可或缺的关键作 用。未来，随着高强度材料、精密制造工艺以及智能化设计的进一步引入，工业链条的性能将不断提 升，应用范围也将进一步拓展，在高端装备、绿色制造及自动化系统中具有广阔的发展前景。 相关上市企业：征和工业（003033）、宝钢股份（600019）、中信特钢（000708）、南钢股份 （600282）、华菱钢铁（000932）、久立特材（002318）、永兴材料（00275 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss various segments of the metals industry, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, highlighting their current status and future outlooks [1][5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Investment Drivers**: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are driving the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks are long-term support factors. For instance, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a projected global central bank purchase of approximately 683 tons in 2025 [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to hold around $5,100 per ounce. The valuation of gold stocks remains low, with companies like Shandong Gold International and Zhongjin Gold being recommended for investment [3][10]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold surpassing 5,100 yuan per gram and silver exceeding $85 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators [2]. Industrial Metals - **Demand Shift**: The demand structure for industrial metals is shifting from traditional sectors to electric infrastructure, renewable energy, and AI-driven data centers. This transition is expected to sustain an upward cycle for the next two to three years, with copper and aluminum valuations being attractive at around 10 times earnings [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply side faces challenges such as depletion of high-grade mines, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to tight supply conditions [5]. Energy Metals - **Market Outlook**: Lithium inventories are decreasing amid strong demand, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices. Cobalt and nickel are benefiting from quota and supply restrictions, while strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and uranium have solid long-term fundamentals despite short-term price corrections [6][12]. Steel Industry - **Current Challenges**: The steel industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reducing or halting production. Attention is needed on supply-side policies and support from the real estate sector. A potential improvement in demand is expected post-spring commencement [7][32]. - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for the steel industry is projected to be around 7 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 112 times [1][32]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - **Tariff Implications**: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by the former president were invalid, but details on refunds remain unclear. Future fluctuations in import tariffs may impact precious metal prices, with expectations of upward price movements in 2026, albeit less volatile than in 2025 [1][7]. Strategic Metals - **Price Trends**: Recent price increases for light rare earths, such as neodymium oxide, have been noted, with a 12% increase year-on-year. Heavy rare earths, however, are experiencing price declines due to weaker demand [20][21]. - **Supply Control**: Future supply is expected to be tightly controlled, with significant reductions in mining and refining quotas anticipated, which will maintain upward pressure on prices [23][25]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, and various firms in the lithium and nickel sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable market positions and growth prospects [3][10][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...

春节，是万家团圆的时刻，也是蓄力起跑的节点。当大红灯笼高高挂起，当阖家欢聚的笑语盈满街巷，南京多家 工厂车间里，却是另一番热火朝天的景象：机器轰鸣不绝于耳，自动化产线高速运转，工人们穿梭忙碌…… 丙午马年的新春，南京工业企业以"开年即开跑、起步即冲刺"的奋斗姿态，用实干与坚守绘就一幅"人勤春来 早"的生动画卷。 订单饱满催人急，生产线变"冲锋线" 大年初四，浓浓的年味还未散去，南京乐金熊猫电器有限公司的A栋生产车间里已是一片繁忙。4条洗衣机生产线 满负荷运转，机械臂精准操作，AGV无人运输车沿着设定轨道平稳穿梭，55台自动化搬运设备将零部件精准送至 各工位，整个流程高效流畅，仿佛一支精密协作的交响乐团。 "订单饱满，我们初四就全员返岗，争分夺秒保交付。"企业技术支持所负责人、高级经理尹春洙的话语中透着紧 迫与自豪。他介绍，企业今年1月订单量同比增长30%，实际销量提升20%，为全年开了个好头。 更令人振奋的是，企业去年第四季度新投用的烘干机生产线已成为新增长点，与洗衣机组成的"洗烘塔"套装在内 销和出口市场"双双走俏"。 钢热，订单更热。一批即将发往中东的管线用钢订单正在加紧赶制——2月16日，海船已按抵达港 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of Chinese cities, highlighting the rapid urbanization and the emergence of new economic centers, while ranking the development potential of 337 cities in China, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and others leading the list [2]. Group 1: Beijing - Beijing is positioned as the political, cultural, international exchange, and technological innovation center of China, with a GDP exceeding 4.1 trillion yuan in 2022, making it the second-largest city after Shanghai [9][10]. - The service sector accounts for 84% of Beijing's economy, with finance, headquarters economy, and technological innovation as key pillars [10]. - Future plans include transforming Beijing into a world-class harmonious city while optimizing population distribution to enhance urban vitality [11][13]. Group 2: Shanghai - Shanghai has established itself as an international economic center, with a GDP of approximately 4.5 trillion yuan in 2022, and aims to rival New York in global economic influence [16][24]. - The city’s industrial structure is supported by the automotive, electronics, and financial sectors, with finance contributing 19.3% to the GDP [17][19]. - Shanghai plans to continue its open policies and develop into a globally competitive city, enhancing the Yangtze River Delta region [24]. Group 3: Shenzhen - Shenzhen's GDP surpassed 3.2 trillion yuan in 2022, marking it as the third-largest city in China, with a significant annual population increase of around 600,000 [25][26]. - The city is recognized as a leading innovation hub, with strategic emerging industries accounting for over 41% of its GDP [26]. - Future initiatives focus on enhancing collaboration within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area to solidify its status as a global innovation city [29]. Group 4: Guangzhou - Guangzhou's GDP reached approximately 2.9 trillion yuan in 2022, ranking fifth nationally, with a strong manufacturing base in automotive and electronics [30][31]. - The city faces challenges in innovation capacity and financial sector development, with financial services contributing only 9.2% to the GDP [33]. - Future goals include enhancing its role as a national center city and participating in global economic cooperation [34]. Group 5: Hangzhou - Hangzhou's economy has shown robust growth, with a GDP of around 1.9 trillion yuan in 2022, driven by a vibrant private and digital economy [36][37]. - The city is recognized for its strong digital economy, with core digital industries contributing 27.1% to the GDP [37]. - Plans for the future include improving transportation infrastructure and fostering a more open and innovative business environment [41][42]. Group 6: Chengdu - Chengdu's GDP exceeded 2 trillion yuan in 2022, accounting for 36.7% of Sichuan province's economy, and it is recognized as a key economic hub in Western China [43][44]. - The electronics sector is a major contributor, with a significant portion of the industrial output [44]. - Future strategies involve enhancing its role as a national center city and collaborating with Chongqing to develop the Western economic highland [49]. Group 7: Nanjing - Nanjing's GDP approached 1.7 trillion yuan in 2022, with a per capita GDP of 179,000 yuan, ranking fifth among major cities [50][51]. - The city is focusing on developing its automotive, steel, electronics, and petrochemical industries while nurturing emerging sectors [51]. - Future aspirations include becoming an "innovation city" and enhancing its influence in the Yangtze River Delta region [54]. Group 8: Suzhou - Suzhou's GDP reached nearly 2.4 trillion yuan in 2022, making it the top city among prefecture-level cities in China [56]. - The city is recognized as a global industrial powerhouse, with significant contributions from electronics and manufacturing sectors [56]. - Future plans emphasize its role in the Yangtze River Delta urban cluster and advancing towards a high-tech manufacturing base [59].