1 行情回顾 2025年铜价重心再度攀升，在多重因素共振下突破2024年高点，刷新历史最高纪录。 2025年1月至3月下旬，美国总统特朗普对中国、加拿大、墨西哥等国加征关税，并宣布对铜进口展开232调查。受关税政策预期影响，COMEX市场和LME 市场的套利交易频繁，COMEX铜价大幅上涨，对LME和国内铜价亦有带动。 3月底至4月上旬，美国实施"对等关税"，全球经济衰退预期升温，股市和期市大幅下挫，铜价也大幅下跌，录得年内最低点。 4月中下旬，美国宣布对其他国家关税暂停90天，市场风险情绪回升，铜价自低位反弹。5月至8月期间，铜价波动幅度较小，美国与中国等国家达成协议， 关税忧虑消退，但在通胀隐忧下，美联储对降息持谨慎态度。7月底，特朗普宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税，但将铜原材料排除在外，精铜套利交易有所 减弱。 9月至12月，美国非农数据不及预期，美联储重启降息周期。与此同时，印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流引发矿泄事故大幅减产。在宏观和基本面共振下，铜价 迎来大幅上涨行情。此外，2026年国内精铜存在减产预期， COMEX铜库存持续创新高，非美货源偏紧，对铜价形成有力支撑。 截至2025年12月31日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Although the expected interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 has slightly declined, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Trump's upcoming nomination of a new chairman has raised market concerns about the decline in the Fed's independence. Amidst the global electrification transformation and AI - driven industrial revolution, copper is crucial for data centers, electric vehicles, and power grid infrastructure. Domestically, the central bank will flexibly use reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, implement an expansionary fiscal policy to boost domestic demand, and promote high - quality development through innovation and industrial upgrading. [3][83] - The sudden strike at mines in northern Chile has intensified disturbances in concentrate supply. Global refined copper production capacity may enter a contraction phase, and domestic imports have decreased month - on - month. At the consumption end, traditional industries face weak demand at the end of the year, while emerging industries offer significant growth potential. Non - US inventories overseas are declining, and US copper inventories are rising, accounting for over 50%. [3][83] - In the third quarter, both the Chinese and US economies showed strong resilience. The global AI - driven industrial revolution has created vast demand prospects for metals. The Fed's interest rate cut has increased market risk appetite. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [3][83] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 December Copper Market Review - In December 2025, copper prices accelerated upward. LME copper rose from a low of around $11,120 to $12,960, and SHFE copper soared from 87,500 to around 102,500. By December 31, LME copper closed at $10,901.5/ton with a monthly increase of 5.8%, and SHFE copper closed at 87,010 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 4.7%. The weak US dollar and tight fundamentals supported the price increase. [8] - Domestic refined copper terminal consumption faced downward pressure in December. Traditional industries had low - growth consumption, while emerging industries showed good demand. Social inventories rebounded slightly to around 200,000 tons at the end of December, and the spot premium shifted to a deep discount. It is predicted that traditional industries will remain seasonally sluggish in January 2026, while emerging industries will have certain resilience. [10][11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fed's New Chairman Nomination and US Third - Quarter Economic Growth - After the Fed cut interest rates in December as expected, the federal funds rate is now in the 3.5% - 3.75% range. The new dot - plot shows one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Trump will announce a new Fed chairman in early January, and the most likely candidate, Kevin Hassett, may support rate cuts. [13][14] - In November, the US CPI was +2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was +2.6% year - on - year. The US GDP in the third quarter grew 4.3% year - on - year after inflation adjustment. However, the government shutdown may affect the fourth - quarter economy. It is expected that the Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. [15] 3.2.2 Lack of Recovery in US Manufacturing and Continued Contraction in Eurozone Manufacturing - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November shrank to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for the ninth consecutive month, indicating weak market demand. [16] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in December was 49.2, lower than expected. Germany's manufacturing output contraction was a major drag, and although France's manufacturing PMI rebounded, its service PMI declined. The ECB maintained key interest rates in December, and the eurozone economy is in a weak recovery. [16][17] 3.2.3 Flexible Use of Reserve - Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts and Expansion of "National Subsidies" in 2026 - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. [18] - In 2026, "national subsidies" will cover four categories: car scrapping, car replacement, home appliances and digital products, and smart products. The scope and subsidy intensity have changed compared to 2025. It is expected that the policy will shift from pure commodity subsidies to a dual - drive model including service consumption. [19] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Slow Resumption of Overseas Interrupted Mines and Further Decline in 2026 Long - Term TC Benchmark Price - The 2026 copper concentrate long - term TC/RC benchmark price was set at $0/dry ton and $0/lb, hitting a new low. The global copper concentrate supply growth in 2026 is expected to be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of interrupted mines and postponed new mine projects. [22] - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile may cause losses of up to $160 million. Some mines such as Oyu Tolgoi, QB, and KFM have production increases or expansion plans. [23][24] 3.3.2 Flat Domestic Refined Copper Production in November and Hurdles in Overseas Refined Copper Capacity Release - In November, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1034 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The stable production was due to high profits from by - products and sufficient copper concentrate imports. The 125,000 - ton cathode copper refining project of Sichuan Liangshan Copper will start production in March 2026. [32] - Overseas, some smelters have been shut down or reduced production due to low processing fees. For example, Glencore's PASAR and Altonorte smelters have stopped production. Some projects' production increases are postponed, and overall, overseas refined copper capacity release will slow down. [33] 3.3.3 Widening Year - on - Year Decline in Refined Copper Imports and Month - on - Month Rebound in Scrap Copper Imports - From January to November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 19% year - on - year, and refined copper imports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year. In November, imports dropped significantly due to high US copper tariffs and port congestion. [53] - From January to November, scrap copper imports increased by 3.63% year - on - year. China will expand scrap copper imports from Southeast Asia and strengthen the recycling and utilization of scrap copper. However, policies have increased the tax burden on scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to supply tightening. [55] 3.3.4 Rising COMEX Inventories and Rebound of Domestic Social Inventories from Low Levels - Since December, domestic inventories have rebounded from low levels, and global visible inventories have continued to rise. COMEX copper inventories have exceeded 50% of the global total. The increase in domestic inventories is due to high copper prices suppressing consumption and reduced overseas supply. It is expected that global visible inventories will remain high and volatile in January 2026. [59][60][61] 3.3.5 Weak Demand in Traditional Industries and Large Growth Potential in Emerging Industries - In the power grid, investment growth has slowed, and the demand for copper in January 2026 may be restricted. [64][67] - In the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, the photovoltaic industry is in a critical stage of anti - involution, and wind power growth has marginally rebounded. However, the copper consumption in the wind and solar industries may decline by about 10% this year. [68][70] - The real estate market is still at the bottom, with investment, construction, and sales data showing a downward trend. The demand for copper is expected to remain low in January 2026. [71][72] - The air - conditioning industry is in adjustment. Domestic sales are under pressure in the short term, but the "trade - in" policy in 2026 will promote the industry's upgrade. [73][74] - The new - energy vehicle industry has maintained high - speed growth. Although the subsidy policy will change in 2026, the market demand space is still large, and sales are expected to maintain a high - speed growth in January 2026. [75][76][77] - The data center industry is accelerating due to AI computing power demand. It is expected that the copper consumption in data centers will increase by about 1.05 million tons in 2026. [78][79] 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the Fed is in an easing cycle, and China will implement expansionary policies. Fundamentally, supply disturbances intensify, and consumption shows a differentiation between traditional and emerging industries. It is predicted that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January 2026, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [83]

Core Viewpoint - The refined copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to potential U.S. tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions, leading to increased domestic prices and a surge in imports [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. copper imports reached their highest level since July, driven by the anticipation of tariffs and a premium on domestic prices [1]. - The Department of Commerce is conducting a market assessment, which may lead to formal decisions on refined metal duties, further distorting global trade flows [2]. - Copper prices have surged to record highs, exceeding $13,000 per ton in London and $6 per pound in New York, influenced by geopolitical risks and strong demand from sectors like renewable energy [6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Structural tightness in the global copper market is evident, with declining inventories outside the U.S. and repeated supply disruptions contributing to expectations of persistent shortfalls [2]. - A series of operational setbacks and accidents in major producing regions have curtailed production growth, exacerbating supply constraints [9][10]. - Smelters are facing difficulties in securing sufficient concentrate, leading to record-low treatment and refining charges, indicating upstream supply constraints [11]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The International Energy Agency forecasts a potential copper supply shortfall of 30% by 2035, driven by declining ore grades and rising capital costs [12]. - Market concentration is increasing, with the top three refining nations controlling 86% of processing capacity for major energy minerals, raising concerns about the copper market's vulnerability to geopolitical shocks [13]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Traders can gain exposure to copper prices through futures contracts, which offer high liquidity and responsiveness to market changes [14]. - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a diversified approach for investors, allowing them to track copper prices without the complexities of futures trading [15]. - Direct investment in copper-producing companies offers leveraged exposure to copper prices, with major players like Glencore and BHP being core holdings in this segment [16].

格隆汇1月6日｜由于贵金属和铜价上涨，伦敦矿业股在早盘交易中走高。随着投资者寻求在更安全的资 产中避险，黄金和白银成为了美国干预委内瑞拉局势的受益者。纽约黄金期货价格上涨0.5%，至每金 衡盎司4473.30美元；白银价格上涨1.9%，至每盎司78.09美元。与此同时，Hargreaves Lansdown的Matt Britzman写道，由于投资者押注今年供应将趋紧，铜价正在推向历史新高。铜矿商安托法加斯塔上涨 0.3%，金矿商霍希尔德矿业上涨0.7%。大宗商品巨头嘉能可股价上涨0.8%，英美资源集团上涨0.4%。 ...

Group 1 - Metallium has entered into a binding e-scrap supply agreement with Glencore, allowing for the supply of up to 2,400 tonnes per annum of e-scrap for its US operations [1][2] - This agreement marks a significant commercial milestone for Metallium, transitioning the company from development to commercial commissioning and execution [2][5] - The multi-year supply arrangement with Glencore provides Metallium with the throughput certainty necessary to expand its US operations and supports the rollout of multiple production lines [3][4] Group 2 - The agreement enhances Metallium's position in the US critical materials recycling sector, facilitating closer collaboration with downstream refiners and strategic partners [4] - Metallium's CEO emphasized the importance of this agreement for securing consistent, high-quality feedstock, which is crucial for the company's processing technology [5] - While specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed, they are standard for Glencore's secondary-materials supply arrangements, underscoring the strategic importance of the deal [6]

Report Title - Supply shortage combined with weak US dollar expectations drive copper prices to new highs - January copper monthly report, released on January 5, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the copper industry have pushed up copper prices, and demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provides support. Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, with limited downside potential for corrections. In the medium to long term, copper prices still have upward potential due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades [5][92][93] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, copper prices reached new highs. Before the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with a monthly increase of 12.6%. As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,240 yuan/ton. Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the industry pushed up copper prices, while demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provided support. Traditional off - season led to a slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic copper inventory increased [5] 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation pressure has eased, with the CPI and core CPI in November lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since 2021. However, the accuracy of CPI data is in doubt due to the federal government shutdown. The employment market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021. The comprehensive PMI in December hit a six - month low, and the dollar index weakened significantly [11][15] Domestic Macroeconomy - China's price level has rebounded, with the CPI in November rising by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. Social financing growth has recovered, with the cumulative social financing scale from January to November reaching 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The official manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the economic sentiment level improved [17][19] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disruptions in global copper mines, and the ICSG lowered the mine supply growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to October, the global copper concentrate production was 19.139 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the growth rate continued to decline. As of December 26, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 670,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72% [29] Smelting - Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, processing fees have reached historical lows. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrates in 2026 between Chinese leading smelters and Antofagasta is $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, a significant drop from 2025. As of December 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $44.76/ton [31] Refined Copper - In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 83.30%, a month - on - month increase of 5.12 percentage points [35] Imports and Exports - In November, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, with a total import volume of 269,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. Exports increased significantly, with a total export volume of 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.83% and a year - on - year increase of 1128.13% [39] Scrap Copper - In November, China's scrap copper imports increased, with an import volume of 208,143.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.99%. In December, the含税 price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to widen due to the sharp increase in copper prices [44] Processing - High copper prices have severely suppressed downstream orders, and the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods are under pressure. In December, the high copper prices are expected to suppress the year - end production plans of some enterprises. The copper foil industry has high prosperity, but the high copper prices at the end of the year may suppress the operating rate [45][49] Terminal Demand - In the power sector, investment in power projects has slowed down, but the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has increased steadily. The real estate market is still at the bottom, with new construction, completion, and sales areas all showing significant year - on - year declines. The new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, and the growth rate of home appliance production has slowed down [53][57][60] Inventory - As of January 2, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 63.49% month - on - month. As of December 31, the domestic social copper inventory increased by 21.84% month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to increase, while the LME copper inventory decreased slightly [64][71] Premiums and Discounts - In December, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased significantly, while the LME copper spot/3 - month turned to a slight premium, and the New York - London copper price difference continued to decline [75] Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of December 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly. As of December 23, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions continued to increase [77] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continuously risen and broken through new highs. After breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark before the holiday and then falling back, the 100,000 yuan/ton mark will become an important psychological and technical dividing line, and it will become an important support level after the copper price breaks through [86] 5. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the US inflation risk has slowed down, but the employment market is still weak. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts, and the weak US dollar is expected to boost metal prices. The copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades, the copper price still has upward potential. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [92][93]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Inpex Corporation is reportedly in a leading position in the bidding for Chevron's Singapore refinery assets, with the transaction nearing completion [1] Group 1: Chevron's Strategic Moves - The sale is part of Chevron's ongoing efforts to optimize its asset portfolio in Singapore [1] - In 2024, Shell sold its Bukom refinery to a joint venture between Glencore and Indonesia's Chandra Asri Pacific [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Singapore remains an attractive hub for oil trading and shipping in the Asia-Pacific region, making refinery assets appealing for companies looking to establish a strategic presence [1] - Acquiring downstream assets like refineries helps traders such as Glencore secure stable refining profits [1] Group 3: Refinery Operations - The Singapore refinery is a joint venture, owned by a subsidiary of PetroChina International (Singapore) and Chevron Singapore [1] - The refinery operates with a processing capacity of 290,000 barrels per day, producing fuels and chemical feedstocks for local and export markets [1] - Chevron initiated the sale process for this stake in early 2025, but no public comments have been made by the involved companies regarding the transaction's progress [1]

Group 1 - The Congolese mining regulatory authority has decided to extend the cobalt export quotas set for Q4 2025 until March 31, 2026, to ensure a smooth implementation of the new quota system [1] - The total cobalt export cap for the year 2025 has been established at 96,600 tons, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounting for approximately 70% of global cobalt production [1] - The demand for cobalt has surged due to the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle industry, which has led to increased international cobalt prices following previous export restrictions [1] Group 2 - Glencore is expected to be one of the first companies to initiate shipments under the new quota system, while China Molybdenum has been preparing for its first cobalt exports [2] - China Molybdenum has been allocated a cobalt export quota of 6,650 tons for Q4 2025, and the company is working to comply with the Congolese government's export procedures [2] - Several administrative processes, including shipping, customs declaration, and final approvals, must be completed before the exports can officially commence [2] Group 3 - The Congolese government announced a suspension of cobalt exports in February 2025, initially set for four months, to address the oversupply in the international market that was causing a decline in prices [3]

| | | | 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | 第二部分 | 供应扰动增加 | 5 | | 第三部分 | 消费端 | 16 | | 一、 | | 新兴消费高速增长 16 | | 二、 | 传统消费收缩 | 23 | | 三、 | 消费端总结 | 26 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 | 26 | | 免责声明 | | 28 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 12 月报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年铜价先跌后涨，重心不断上移，全年涨幅近 40%。1-3 月铜价 缓慢上行，4 月初短线快速下跌，最低跌至 8105 美元/吨，6 月收复前期的 全部跌幅。9 月下旬铜价突破年度压力位 10160 美元/吨，10 月 29 日价格 首次 ...