Core Viewpoint - The well-known domestic beauty brand, Chando, has initiated its IPO process, marking a significant step towards its market expansion despite recent underwhelming performance in revenue growth and profitability [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Chando reported a revenue of 4.601 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.58%, while its net profit decreased by nearly 40% to 190 million yuan [2][5]. - Chando's revenue is significantly lower compared to its competitors, with Proya and Shiseido achieving revenues of 10.778 billion yuan and 6.793 billion yuan respectively in 2024 [2][5]. - Chando's revenue in 2024 was approximately 80% of Beitaini's revenue, which reached 5.7 billion yuan [6]. Group 2: Online Channel Transformation - Chando's slow transition to online sales channels is a critical factor in its performance, with online sales accounting for less than 70% of its revenue, compared to over 80% for Proya [3][10]. - The online channel's contribution to Chando's revenue increased from 59.7% in 2022 to 68.8% in 2024, indicating a gradual but insufficient shift [10]. - In contrast, Proya's online revenue share surged from 70.01% in 2020 to 93.07% in 2023, showcasing a successful adaptation to market changes [8]. Group 3: Marketing and Brand Strategy - Chando has invested heavily in marketing, with total expenditures reaching 7.568 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, which is significantly higher than the industry average [3][21]. - The marketing expense ratio for Chando was 59% in 2024, compared to an average of 47.78% for its peers, indicating a higher cost burden [21][23]. - Chando is focusing on launching new brands to drive growth, with the brand "Pofenyan" showing promising results, generating 121 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a growth of over 90% [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Chando plans to enhance its marketing efforts through collaborations with KOLs and increased advertising on major e-commerce and social media platforms [23]. - The company aims to open more offline flagship stores to strengthen its market presence, with new stores planned in major cities [13][16]. - The effectiveness of Chando's marketing investments and its ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences will be crucial for its future growth [23].

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (02145.HK), indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - On October 22, southbound funds reduced their holdings by 12,100 shares, marking a decrease of 0.03% [2] - Over the past five trading days, there have been four days of net selling, totaling a reduction of 742,100 shares [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net selling, with a cumulative reduction of 1,188,800 shares [1] Group 2: Current Holdings - As of now, southbound funds hold 41,123,600 shares of Shangmei Cosmetics, which represents 19.92% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] Group 3: Company Overview - Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the production and sale of cosmetics, with key brands including "Han Shu," "Yi Ye Zi," and "Red Elephant" [2] - The company's products are utilized for skincare and maternal and infant care, sold through both online and offline channels [2] - The company mainly operates in the domestic market [2]

Core Insights - JuYi Group is expanding its brand portfolio beyond budget cosmetics by acquiring the Italian hair care brand Fengtian, indicating a strategic shift towards a multi-brand approach in the beauty market [1][3][4] Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - The acquisition of Fengtian includes its brand assets, global business network, supply chain, and R&D laboratory located in Italy, enhancing JuYi Group's strategic positioning in hair and scalp care [3] - JuYi Group has previously signed an acquisition agreement with the scientific skincare brand BaiZhiCui and established a long-term strategic partnership with Pierre Fabre Group to manage the Fouguede brand in China [3][4] Group 2: Market Positioning - JuYi Group aims to solidify its long-term value and differentiation across its brands while continuously seeking high-quality beauty and personal care brands for future acquisitions [4] - The company recognizes the need to diversify beyond its origins in budget cosmetics to remain competitive in the increasingly crowded beauty market [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - JuYi Group reported a retail revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 36% [6] - The company’s vision is to become a leading multi-brand beauty group in Asia, which has prompted a series of acquisitions from skincare to hair care [5][6] Group 4: Focus on Hair Care - JuYi Group is prioritizing the hair care sector, driven by increasing consumer awareness of hair and scalp health, and sees significant growth potential in this area [7] - The hair care market in 2023 was valued at 620.9 billion yuan, with expectations to exceed 660 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于沪深300指数5%以上) [63] Core Insights - The beauty industry is currently in a rational development phase, with increasing consumer power and competitiveness of domestic brands, particularly those that can quickly respond to consumer needs [3][59] - The 2025 edition of "All Girls' Offer" features 88 brands and 166 SKUs, with a significant increase in participation from domestic brands, reflecting the rise of domestic products and the pursuit of greater exposure by emerging brands [3][10][59] - The negotiation mechanism for this season's offers is more consumer-friendly, with deeper discounts, new products upgraded without price increases, and combinations that better meet consumer needs [3][59] Summary by Sections Consumer Power and Market Dynamics - Consumer power has significantly increased, indicating a "buyer’s market" in the current beauty industry [3][59] - The 2025 offer introduced a competitive mechanism where consumer votes account for 60% of the total, intensifying brand competition [10][59] Brand Participation and Offer Characteristics - This season's offers include a higher proportion of domestic and mass-market brands, with 32 domestic brands and 20 international brands participating [3][10][59] - The offers are characterized by deeper discounts, new products with no price increases, and simpler, cleaner bundles for returning customers [3][25][59] International and Domestic Brand Competition - International brands are continuously upgrading their products, while domestic brands are enhancing their research capabilities and actively participating in offer negotiations [3][42][45] - Emerging domestic brands are seeking greater exposure and sales growth by participating in the offers [53][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands such as 毛戈平, 珀莱雅, 上美股份, 爱美客, 贝泰妮, 润本股份, 巨子生物, and 丸美股份, which are well-positioned in the current market [3][59]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The company is transitioning towards a multi-brand beauty group, with a focus on operational efficiency and data-driven strategies to enhance growth certainty [14][15] - The main brand, Han Shu, has shown significant revenue growth through effective channel strategies, particularly on Douyin, and is expected to continue this trend [5][15] - The company has successfully launched new brands and product lines, contributing to its revenue and market presence [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Transition to a Multi-Brand Beauty Group - The company is evolving into a multi-brand beauty group, with Han Shu as its main brand, achieving revenue of 41.1 billion RMB in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [14] - The net profit for the same period was 5.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.7% [14] 2. Channel Strategy - The company has leveraged its historical experience to capitalize on sales and marketing opportunities, particularly through Douyin, which has become a key growth driver [24][31] - The transition from B2B to B2C has led to a significant increase in online self-operated channels, with Douyin's contribution to revenue rising sharply [19][22] 3. Product Development - The company has focused on developing high-quality products with competitive pricing, exemplified by the success of the "Red Waist" series, which has become a best-seller [52][54] - The introduction of the "X Peptide" series has also shown promising sales, with total sales exceeding 200 million RMB [61] 4. Operational Efficiency - The company's operational strategies have shifted towards a platform model, emphasizing top-tier resources and talent to enhance brand development [5][14] - The focus on data-driven decision-making has improved the company's ability to respond to market trends and consumer preferences [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - Aimeike has completed its first new cosmetic ingredient filing, "Glycyrrhizic Chalcone A," derived from the traditional Chinese plant licorice, marking a significant step in its strategic expansion into the cosmetics sector [2][3][4]. Group 1: Business Development - Aimeike is actively expanding its cosmetics business, leveraging its technological advantages accumulated in the medical aesthetics field to drive innovation [4][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.299 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 21.6%, and a net profit of 789 million yuan, down 29.6%, indicating pressure on its core products [6]. - Aimeike has initiated a multi-line transformation strategy, including product diversification and pipeline expansion, with new products like "Gakola" and ongoing clinical trials for other products [6][8]. Group 2: Market Context - The cosmetic ingredient market is experiencing intense competition, with a 77.8% year-on-year increase in new ingredient filings in the first half of the year, highlighting the growing interest in this sector [11]. - Major players like Proya and Beautylife have also completed new ingredient filings, indicating a trend among domestic beauty giants to secure upstream raw material capabilities [11]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Aimeike faces significant challenges, including a lack of experience in managing cosmetic raw material supply chains and the need for time to transition from filing to commercialization [12]. - The company is also contending with established competitors who have first-mover advantages and the potential for regulatory hurdles during the three-year monitoring period following the new ingredient filing [12].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等 影响，9 月社零增速放缓 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年10月21日 邓文慧 郭家玮 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590525030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国家统计局发布社零数据，9 月份，社零总额为 4.20 万亿元，同比增长 3.0%。其中，除汽车 以外的消费品零售额为 3.73 万亿元，同比增长 3.2%；限额以上单位消费品零售额 1.78 万亿 元，同比增长 2.3%。 |分析师及联系人 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年10月21日 商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等影响， 9 月社零增速放缓 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2024/10 2025/2 2025/6 2025/10 商贸零售 沪深300 相关报告 1、《商贸零售：7 月社零同比+3.7%，环比有 所回落》2025.08.16 2、《商贸 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the globalization of Chinese brands during the "Double 11" shopping festival, showcasing their competitive strength and market presence on a global scale [1][2]. Group 1: Global Expansion of Chinese Brands - Taobao has launched a comprehensive overseas initiative with a marketing subsidy of 1 billion yuan, targeting 20 countries and regions to help 100,000 merchants double their overseas sales [2]. - JD.com has expanded its global offerings to cover millions of self-operated products, providing free shipping across 12 countries [2]. - Temu, a subsidiary of Pinduoduo, is directly competing with "Black Friday" by offering significant discounts [2]. Group 2: Performance of Domestic Brands - Several domestic brands showcased significant sales growth during "Double 11," with brands like Aikeman and Shuangmei seeing over 100% year-on-year sales increases, while brands like Han Shu and Perfect Diary experienced 50% growth [2]. - The synergy between variety shows and live-streaming sales has proven effective, with cultural elements from traditional Chinese arts generating consumer interest and driving sales [4]. Group 3: Role of Live Streaming in Brand Development - The live-streaming industry has become a catalyst for the growth of domestic brands, transforming from a sales channel to a platform for brand co-creation [6]. - Brands are leveraging live-streaming to educate consumers about product features and development stories, enhancing consumer understanding and trust [6][7]. - The collaboration between brands and live-streaming platforms is fostering innovation and pushing brands to invest more in research and development [6][7]. Group 4: Cultural Empowerment and International Recognition - Chinese beauty products are becoming vehicles for international cultural exchange, with live-streaming making this interaction more tangible for overseas consumers [8]. - The shift in perception from international brands towards Chinese brands reflects a growing respect for their product quality and innovation, indicating a transition from competition to collaboration [8][9]. - The essence of product globalization is intertwined with cultural globalization, as brands aim to share their cultural narratives alongside their products [9].

Core Viewpoint - Natural Hall, a well-known domestic beauty brand, is facing challenges in profitability and research and development, despite its historical significance and market presence [2][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Natural Hall from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 4.292 billion, 4.442 billion, and 4.601 billion yuan, with net profits of 139 million, 302 million, and 190 million yuan respectively [4]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2022 to 2024 is only 3.5%, significantly lower than the industry average of 6.6% [4]. Revenue Structure - Approximately 90% of Natural Hall's revenue is derived from its core brand, "Natural Hall," indicating a heavy reliance on a single brand [5][6]. - The other four brands under Natural Hall contribute only about 5% of total revenue, highlighting limited market influence [7]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Natural Hall maintains a high gross margin, but its net profit margin fluctuates between 3.2% and 7.8%, which is considerably lower than competitors [9]. - Marketing expenses from 2022 to 2024 exceeded 7.5 billion yuan, while R&D investment was only about 348 million yuan, indicating a marketing-to-R&D expenditure ratio of 21.55 times [10][11]. Channel Strategy - Online revenue share increased from 59.7% to 68.8% from 2022 to the first half of 2025, while offline revenue share decreased to around 30% [12]. - Despite the growth in online sales, Natural Hall continues to expand its offline retail presence, with over 62,700 retail terminals as of mid-2025 [13]. Corporate Governance - Natural Hall is a family-controlled business, with the Zheng family holding 87.82% of voting rights, ensuring significant control over strategic decisions [14]. - The company recently brought in strategic investors, including L'Oréal and CVC Capital, while maintaining family control over the board [15]. Market Position and Challenges - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to grow from 779.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 934.6 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic brands expected to capture over 50% market share by 2025 [16]. - Natural Hall's reliance on celebrity endorsements poses risks, as seen with recent controversies affecting brand reputation [16][17].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The Q3 economic slowdown aligns with expectations, with GDP growth at 4.8% year-on-year, matching consensus forecasts, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% [3][4] - The second industry has weakened significantly, particularly in the construction sector, which is expected to show a notable decline in GDP [3][4] - Exports have rebounded, boosting industrial production, while the service sector remains resilient, with industrial added value increasing by 1.3% year-on-year in September [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - New housing transactions have weakened, with a significant year-on-year decline in sales volume observed in major cities, indicating a challenging market environment [11][13] - The average transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities fell by 3% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 32% and 28% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively [13][34] - Second-hand housing prices have also shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [33][37] Group 3: Fixed Income and Fiscal Policy - National public budget revenue increased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [16][17] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments from debt limits, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [16][18] - Tax revenue has shown steady growth, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue, which rose by 342.4% year-on-year [17][19] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The electric vehicle and battery management sectors are experiencing growth, with companies like Huazhi Jie expanding into new application areas such as new energy vehicles and drones [22][24] - The coal industry is witnessing a price surge, with thermal coal prices nearing 750 yuan per ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [44][45] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Guobang Pharmaceutical, is showing steady growth in performance and profitability, indicating a robust market position [47]