Group 1 - Copper prices reached historical highs, with London copper up 0.4% at $11,925 per ton and Shanghai copper closing at 94,320 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.73% [1] - Copper is referred to as "Dr. Copper" due to its role as a leading indicator for global manufacturing and economic growth, reflecting the activity level of the real economy [1] - Historical data shows that copper prices often lead GDP and PMI indicators by 6-12 months, making it a reliable predictor of economic turning points [1] Group 2 - Ongoing supply shortages are supporting copper prices, with mining giant Glencore lowering its 2026 copper production forecast, highlighting a tight supply situation in the short to medium term [2] - The Chilean state-owned copper company has raised COMEX-LME copper premium quotes, causing a shift of global copper inventories towards the U.S., with COMEX inventories reaching a historical high of 450,000 tons, exacerbating shortages in non-U.S. regions [2] - The recent performance of the colored ETF (159980.SZ) shows a record scale of 3.682 billion yuan and 1.909 billion shares, with significant net inflows totaling 858 million yuan over the past 18 days [2]

来源：经济参考报 作者：闫磊 2025年，地缘政治波动、新能源汽车产业发展、市场避险需求高企等因素持续影响大宗商品需求端，主 要品种价格单边震荡，走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"——油价显著回落，而黄金等贵金属价格屡创 新高、铜价持续飙涨。 需求疲弱令油价走低 针对今年以来震荡走低的国际油价，多个机构近期表示，需求端疲软令基本面宽松的局面持续打压油 价，地缘政治局势缓和等因素也给油价带来下行压力。 受到供应过剩压力加剧的预期，以及市场对俄乌和谈再现乐观情绪的影响，国际油价近期跌至2021年2 月以来最低水平，令今年的油价总体跌幅达到约20%。 据英国《金融时报》近日报道，全球大宗商品贸易巨头托克集团警告称，由于供应激增与全球需求下降 并存，石油市场明年将面临"超级过剩"。该集团日前发布的公司年度业绩显示，截至9月份的财年净利 润为27亿美元，创五年新低。 除了行业头部企业业绩反映需求下降，《金融时报》还指出，随着全球大量原油开采新项目将于明年投 产，预计油价将受到进一步压制。 英国oil price网站称，在需求增长疲软的背景下，石油供应持续上涨，因此预测机构和分析师预计2026 年市场将出现大幅供应过剩。许 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil price has dropped significantly due to weak demand and geopolitical factors, with a total decline of approximately 20% this year, reaching its lowest level since February 2021 [2] - The commodity trading giant Trafigura warns of a "super surplus" in the oil market next year due to a combination of supply surge and declining global demand [2] - Analysts predict that the peak of supply surplus will occur in the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of continued inventory growth throughout the year, putting further pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices have surged from $2,650 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,000 per ounce, marking a significant bull market with a year-to-date increase of approximately 60% [4] - Central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 254 tons from January to October, providing substantial support for gold prices [4] - The International Clearing Bank (BIS) warns of potential bubble signs in the gold market due to excessive optimism and rising valuations, which could lead to a price correction of 5% to 20% [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - The price of copper is expected to remain robust due to global industrial transformation, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with a projected demand increase of around 3% in 2026 [7] - Supply constraints, exacerbated by incidents such as the collapse of a copper mine in Chile, have led to reduced production forecasts, supporting copper prices [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030 will be driven by investments in power infrastructure, indicating strong long-term prospects for copper [8]

（来源：经济参考报） 需求疲弱令油价走低 针对今年以来震荡走低的国际油价，多个机构近期表示，需求端疲软令基本面宽松的局面持续打压油 价，地缘政治局势缓和等因素也给油价带来下行压力。 受到供应过剩压力加剧的预期，以及市场对俄乌和谈再现乐观情绪的影响，国际油价近期跌至2021年2 月以来最低水平，令今年的油价总体跌幅达到约20%。 据英国《金融时报》近日报道，全球大宗商品贸易巨头托克集团警告称，由于供应激增与全球需求下降 并存，石油市场明年将面临"超级过剩"。该集团日前发布的公司年度业绩显示，截至9月份的财年净利 润为27亿美元，创五年新低。 除了行业头部企业业绩反映需求下降，《金融时报》还指出，随着全球大量原油开采新项目将于明年投 产，预计油价将受到进一步压制。 英国oil price网站称，在需求增长疲软的背景下，石油供应持续上涨，因此预测机构和分析师预计2026 年市场将出现大幅供应过剩。许多专家和投资银行认为，当前市场正在累积库存，这一趋势将持续到 2026年年初。美国能源信息署和华尔街银行也看空未来一年的石油市场，预测2026年平均油价将低于60 美元/桶。 高盛等机构的分析师表示，尽管市场对原油供应过 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global commodities trader and miner Glencore has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Dutch fuel supplier FincoEnergies for an undisclosed sum [1] Company Summary - Glencore is expanding its portfolio by acquiring a majority stake in FincoEnergies, indicating a strategic move to enhance its presence in the fuel supply sector [1] - The financial details of the acquisition remain undisclosed, which may suggest a focus on strategic alignment rather than immediate financial metrics [1] Industry Summary - The acquisition reflects ongoing consolidation trends within the commodities and fuel supply industries, as companies seek to strengthen their market positions [1] - Glencore's move may signal increased competition in the fuel supply market, potentially impacting pricing and supply dynamics [1]

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 铜：需求结构重塑 沪铜步入新纪元 有色金属/铜 内容提要： ◆ 2025 年铜市在"政策扰动+供应紧缩"双重驱动下走出历史级行情。年初 政策预期升温推升价格；二季度关税冲击与矿端收紧博弈，价格深跌反弹； 三季度高位震荡，事件与政策交织；四季度宏观压制缓和、供应焦虑加剧， 推动铜价强势突破，沪铜主力合约年末突破 9.4 万元/吨，伦铜触及 1.16 万 美元/吨，双双创历史新高。 ◆ 宏观层面，美联储全年降息三次，但进程分歧明显，年末定调"鹰派落 地"，2026 年降息节奏预计缓慢且反复。国内"十五五"规划开局，政策托 底明确，高质量发展主线为铜需求提供结构性支撑。中美贸易政策仍是重要 变量，关税预期间歇性扰动市场情绪与贸易流向。 ◆ 供给端进入紧平衡阶段。全球铜矿产量增速仅约 1%，新增项目贡献不 足，地缘与运营风险持续侵蚀供应弹性。铜精矿 TC/RC 深陷负值并进一步下 探，冶炼行业盈利模式崩塌，步入"负利润"生产常态。2026 年全球精炼铜 产量增速或转为负增长，标志产能扩张周期迎来强制性调整。 ◆ 需求端结构性分化延续。新兴领域仍是核心动能，新能源汽车渗透率突破 53 ...

商 品 研 2025 年 12 月 22 日 铜：现货走弱，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 93,180 | 0.63% | 93560 | 0.41% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,871 | 1.22% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 314,112 | 25,585 | 631,942 | 9,906 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 19,401 | -11,963 | 342,000 | -2,759 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 45,739 | 1,089 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 160,400 | -3,875 | 35.19% | -2.27% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: Weakening spot market restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][16]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to decline [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: ETF holdings are increasing marginally, and the price center is moving upwards [2][23]. - Palladium: Resumed its upward momentum after a slight retreat [2][23]. - Nickel: Fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and Indonesian policies have increased concerns [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances [2][27]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Gold T+D closed at 975.82 with a 0.12% daily increase; Comex gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% increase.沪银2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% decrease; Comex silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪金2602 trading volume was 328,878, an increase of 87,762; open interest was 189,662, a decrease of 7,090.沪银2602 trading volume was 1,904,227, an increase of 332,489; open interest was 337,467, a decrease of 25,935 [4]. - **Inventory**: 沪金 inventory was 91,716 kg, unchanged;沪银 inventory was 899,636 kg, a decrease of 12,528 kg [4]. - **Spread**: Gold T+D to AU2602 spread was -4.08, unchanged; 白银T+D to AG2602 spread was 58, an increase of 1 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0; silver trend intensity is 0 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: 沪铜主力合约 closed at 93,180 with a 0.63% daily increase; 伦铜3M电子盘 closed at 11,871 with a 1.22% increase [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪铜指数 trading volume was 314,112, an increase of 25,585; open interest was 631,942, an increase of 9,906. 伦铜3M电子盘 trading volume was 19,401, a decrease of 11,963; open interest was 342,000, a decrease of 2,759 [8]. - **Inventory**: 沪铜 inventory was 45,739, an increase of 1,089; 伦铜 inventory was 160,400, a decrease of 3,875 [8]. - **Spread**: LME copper cash-to -3M spread was 4.73, an increase of 18.62; 现货对期货近月价差 was -160, a decrease of 20 [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: 沪锌主力收盘价 was 23,075 with a 0.17% daily increase; 伦锌3M电子盘收盘价 was 3,078 with a 0.65% increase [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪锌主力成交量 was 88,361, an increase of 2,041; open interest was 86,365, an increase of 2,640. 伦锌成交量 was 8,494, a decrease of 14,475; open interest was 227,461, an increase of 449 [11]. - **Inventory**: 沪锌期货库存 was 45,178, a decrease of 771; LME zinc inventory was 99,900, an increase of 500 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: 沪铅主力收盘价 was 16,880 with a 0.57% daily increase; 伦铅3M电子盘收盘价 was 1,984.5 with a 1.25% increase [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪铅主力成交量 was 56,461, an increase of 25,238; open interest was 62,177, an increase of 6,505. 伦铅成交量 was 5,862, a decrease of 6,084; open interest was 176,668, a decrease of 415 [14]. - **Inventory**: 沪铅期货库存 was 14,187, a decrease of 842; LME lead inventory was 258,625, a decrease of 3,500 [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: 沪锡主力合约 closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily increase; 伦锡3M电子盘 closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% increase [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪锡主力合约 trading volume was 240,305, a decrease of 3,224; open interest was 33,801, a decrease of 107. 伦锡3M电子盘 trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9; open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 [16]. - **Inventory**: 沪锡 inventory was 7,844, an increase of 242; 伦锡 inventory was 4,645, an increase of 220 [16]. - **Spread**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 329,900, an increase of 9,900; 现货对期货主力价差 was 3,020, a decrease of 1,780 [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: 沪铝主力合约收盘价 was 22,185; 沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价 was 2,500; 铝合金主力合约收盘价 was 21,235 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪铝主力合约成交量 was 225,621; 沪氧化铝主力合约成交量 was 198,046; 铝合金主力合约成交量 was 4,335 [21]. - **Inventory**: 国内铝锭社会库存 was 56.10 million tons; 上期所铝锭仓单 was 7.62 million tons [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is -1; cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: 铂金期货2606 closed at 533.55 with a -1.67% decrease; 钯金期货2606 closed at 480.20 with a 0.76% increase [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 广铂 trading volume was 153,911, a decrease of 948; open interest was 38,087, an increase of 2,123. 广钯 trading volume was 108,461, an increase of 38,341; open interest was 15,221, an increase of 1,371 [23]. - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces) were 3,239,006, an increase of 17,641; palladium ETF holdings (ounces) were 1,126,738, an increase of 162 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 1; palladium trend intensity is 1 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: 沪镍主力（收盘价） was 117,180; 不锈钢主力（收盘价） was 12,720 [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪镍主力（成交量） was 210,637; 不锈钢主力（成交量） was 388,060 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesian policies and regulations have an impact on the nickel market, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group and sanctions on mining companies [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [31].

Summary of Cobalt and Nickel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the cobalt and nickel industry, particularly the impact of policies from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Indonesia on supply and pricing dynamics. Key Points on Cobalt Supply and Pricing - DRC's cobalt export quota policy and customs issues have led to tight domestic supply in China, with optimistic projections for cobalt prices to reach 500,000 RMB/ton in Q1 2026, although a drop below 400,000 RMB is unlikely [1][4] - If the actual arrival of cobalt raw materials is lower than expected, prices may rise again; if it meets expectations, major companies controlling supply could maintain high prices, with an annual average expected to stay above 500,000 RMB, potentially reaching 600,000 RMB [4][5] - The Indonesian nickel project is expected to partially offset DRC's export restrictions, contributing approximately 40,000 tons of cobalt supply in 2025, with less than 30,000 tons entering China [7] - Global cobalt supply is projected to be around 215,000 tons in 2026, with significant contributions from Indonesia and black powder recycling, while demand is expected to remain tight due to inventory depletion from previous years [8][9] Demand Dynamics - Global refined cobalt demand in 2025 is estimated at 220,000 tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, driven mainly by bone conduction technology and 3C electronics, while demand in the power battery sector is declining [10] - For 2026, cobalt consumption is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, estimated between 220,000 to 230,000 tons, primarily from the lithium cobalt oxide sector, although high cobalt prices may suppress demand in the ternary battery sector [11] Impact of Pricing on Applications - In ternary batteries, a 100,000 RMB increase in cobalt price raises costs by 7,000 to 10,000 RMB, while cobalt's impact on high-temperature alloys is minimal due to their higher technical content [12] - Cobalt's significant presence in lithium cobalt oxide (60%-70%) means that price increases can lead to substantial cost increases, but the cost per device in 3C products remains negligible [13] Policy and Market Implications - DRC's export quota policy aims to maintain a balance between supply and demand, challenging China's heavy reliance on DRC, prompting efforts to develop nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia and explore new sources in Africa [15] - The Indonesian government is controlling nickel ore resources to prevent undervaluation, with potential new pricing formulas expected to be implemented in Q1 2026, which could significantly raise production costs [23][24] Future Outlook - The nickel market is expected to face a supply gap due to potential reductions in Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, which could lead to price increases above 20,000 USD/ton if implemented [21][22] - The overall sentiment is that supply-side disruptions will be more impactful than demand-side changes in the near term, with a focus on the implications of government policies on resource management [20][28] Conclusion - The cobalt and nickel industries are navigating complex supply chain challenges influenced by geopolitical policies, with significant implications for pricing and market dynamics. The focus remains on balancing supply constraints with growing demand in various sectors, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and advanced electronics.