Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends [2] - The report highlights the need to focus on investment opportunities following stabilization in the market [8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% last week, underperforming major indices [14][16] 2. Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices decreased by 3.45% to 100,100 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices fell by 5.07% to 23,315 CNY/ton [24] - SHFE gold prices dropped by 8.92% to 1,090.12 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold rose by 5.13% to 4,988.60 USD/ounce [26] - SHFE silver prices decreased by 37.17% to 18,799 CNY/kg, with COMEX silver down by 1.28% to 77.53 USD/ounce [26] 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks key macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PCE, which show a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and 2.79%, respectively [29][30] - China's CPI and PPI for December were reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively [30] 4. Precious Metals: Low Inventory Disturbances - The report notes that low inventory levels continue to disrupt precious metal prices, with significant fluctuations observed in both gold and silver markets [52][53] 5. Copper: Price Fluctuations - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with supply-side adjustments and demand dynamics playing crucial roles [65][72] 6. Aluminum: Price Adjustments - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic sentiment and seasonal demand fluctuations, with a noted decrease in processing rates [10][80] 7. Energy Metals: Strong Demand - The report highlights robust demand for energy metals, particularly lithium, despite some price pressures due to macroeconomic factors [89][92] 8. Rare Earths: Price Trends - Prices for rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxides, continue to rise, supported by tight supply conditions [11]

Group 1 - Commodity prices have significantly increased and are stabilizing at higher levels, benefiting the basic materials sector, particularly aluminum, copper, and lithium suppliers [1] - Companies such as China Aluminum (02600), China Hongqiao (01378), and Zijin Mining (02899) are rated "Buy," along with pure copper firms like Minmetals Resources (01208), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), and Jiangxi Copper (00358) [1] - Gold jewelry manufacturers will benefit from rising gold prices, while the increase in copper prices will expand the profit margins of copper-clad laminate (CCL) producers like Kingboard Laminates (01888) [1] Group 2 - Automotive manufacturers will face pressure due to rising material costs, with expected increases of approximately RMB 6,565 for BEVs and RMB 4,310 for PHEVs [1] - Smaller companies like Xpeng Motors (09868) and GAC Group (02238) are more vulnerable due to lower average selling prices, while larger firms like BYD (01211) and Geely (00175) can pass on over 50% of cost increases to upstream suppliers [1] - The battery industry’s second-tier companies are expected to face short-term pressure, while CATL (03750) has pricing power and is more defensive due to the expected resumption of its Jiangxi lithium mica mine in Q2 [2] Group 3 - Sales of energy storage systems are anticipated to experience margin compression, particularly in Q2, initiating a 90-day negative catalyst observation for the industry [2] - In the solar industry, component manufacturers are more susceptible to rising silver costs, which account for about 30% of their production costs, potentially compressing profit margins [2] - Among Chinese power equipment manufacturers, Pinggao Electric (600312.SH) is most sensitive to increases in copper and aluminum costs [2]

Group 1 - The rare metals sector experienced a strong rally, with the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index rising by 1.88% as of 10:27 AM on February 9, 2026, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Shenghe Resources (+9.93%), Yunlu Co. (+5.81%), and China Rare Earth (+5.76%) [1] - Recent price increases in antimony ingots (+2.49%) and antimony concentrates (+1.40%) are attributed to supply disruptions caused by a fire at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which is expected to reduce production by over 2,000 tons [1] - The demand for antimony is anticipated to rise post-Spring Festival due to the traditional peak season for flame retardant materials, alongside expectations of improved capacity utilization in photovoltaic glass and a recovery in exports [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on strategic metal investment opportunities characterized by resource scarcity and supply rigidity, emphasizing the importance of these metals in the context of global technological revolutions and strategic resource nationalism [2] - The demand for strategic metals is expected to increase significantly due to changes in the demand structure driven by new technologies, with sectors such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence leading this demand surge [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 59.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [2] Group 3 - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index, providing a convenient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals sector [3] - Investors can also consider the Rare Metals ETF linked fund (014111) to explore investment opportunities in the rare metals sector [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of rare metal ETFs and the underlying factors driving the market, including supply constraints and price increases in rare metals [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of February 9, 2026, the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) rose by 1.92%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Shenghe Resources (up 9.97%) and Yulu Co. (up 5.77%) [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.71% of the index, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth among the leaders [1] - The rare metal ETF fund (561800) saw a scale increase of 7.1364 million yuan in the past week, with a share increase of 3.5 million units [1] - The supply side of rare earths is tightening due to domestic environmental assessments and production restrictions, leading to a 2.12% decrease in praseodymium and neodymium metal output in January [2] - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased by 12.64% to 757,500 yuan per ton due to rigid supply support [2] - Tungsten supply is also tightening, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 25.19% to 671,000 yuan per ton, reaching a historical high [2] - The CS Rare Metals Index tracked by the rare metal ETF fund primarily allocates to lithium carbonate, minor metals, and rare earth sectors, with lithium content between 30% and 40% [3]

Group 1 - Copper prices continue to rise, with domestic commodity futures opening with Shanghai copper up over 2%. Last week, LME metal futures closed higher, with LME copper rising by $91 to $12,994 per ton and LME aluminum rising by $58 to $3,085 per ton [1] - According to Huayuan Securities, in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage. Additionally, the profit cycle for copper smelting is expected to bottom out amid a "de-involution" backdrop, and with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices are likely to break upward [1] - In the context of copper prices reaching historical highs, the process of "aluminum replacing copper" in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors may accelerate. Furthermore, the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones is expected to continue until 2026, which may lead to an increase in demand for electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and others, collectively accounting for 55.71% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) has shown strong market activity, leading in turnover and trading volume among similar products, indicating a robust interest in the nonferrous metals sector [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) had a turnover rate of 28.68% and a trading volume of 291 million yuan, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1]. - The ETF experienced a net subscription of 285 million shares on its first day of listing, reflecting significant investor interest [1]. Group 2: Index and Sector Highlights - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, which has a notable allocation of over 10% to the rare earth sector, making it the third-largest industry in the index [3]. - The top two industries in the index are copper and aluminum, with expectations of limited supply growth in the coming years, suggesting potential for long-term price increases [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Mergers - Nonferrous metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are currently maintaining high levels, with a surge in mergers and acquisitions among international mining companies, particularly involving Chinese firms [4]. - Since the second half of 2025, Chinese mining companies have acquired nearly 60 billion yuan worth of overseas gold mines, indicating a clear trend of Chinese firms securing quality nonferrous resources globally [4]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME aluminum prices for the first half of 2026 from $2,575 per ton to $3,150 per ton, indicating a potential revaluation of aluminum prices [5]. - CICC has noted that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum will continue to widen in 2026, with supportive fiscal and monetary policies likely driving aluminum prices to new highs [5]. - Galaxy Securities highlights the importance of building a domestic copper resource reserve system to enhance supply chain resilience, predicting an expansion of the global copper supply gap and upward pressure on copper prices due to "security premiums" [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend in copper prices in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][4] - The TC spot price continues to hit historical lows, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [1][3] - The report recommends specific companies for investment: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - As of February 6, 2026, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports is 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [2][46] - The TC spot price is at -51.23 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.9 USD/ton from January 30, 2026, marking a low since September 2007 [3][57] - **Demand**: - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.15% as of February 5, 2026 [4][70] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April 2026 [4][87] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [2][24] - Global inventory across major exchanges reached 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, 2026 [2][24] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, 2026, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [1][17]

Core Insights - The report introduces a "Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework" that integrates multiple factors affecting stock price performance, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than relying on a single indicator [3][9] - Historical backtesting from 2016 to February 2025 shows that industries with higher scores in this framework tend to perform better, with annualized returns for the top scoring group at 11.8% compared to -10.5% for the lowest scoring group [21][23] - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors for February, particularly in high valuation industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers [3][34] Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework - The framework consists of five dimensions: market style, fundamentals, liquidity, trading, and valuation, with subjective judgments applied to market style, liquidity, and valuation [9][12] - The scoring process involves adjusting weights based on market conditions, with equal weighting during non-earnings seasons and increased emphasis on fundamentals during earnings seasons [8][30] February Market Outlook - The report anticipates a growth-oriented market style for February, with expectations of net inflows from public funds and a focus on high valuation sectors [3][34] - Key industries identified for investment include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [34][35] Industry Recommendations - **Electronics and Communications**: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and ShenNan Circuit are highlighted for their strong positions in AI-related markets and expected growth in demand for high-end products [36] - **Power Equipment**: Firms such as Shenghong Co. and Yangguang Electric are recommended due to their potential benefits from overseas storage and AI power sectors [40] - **High-End Manufacturing**: Companies like Anpeilong and Jingjin Equipment are noted for their advancements in robotics and AI applications, with significant growth potential [42] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to benefit from rising copper prices and strategic stockpiling initiatives [46][47] - **Computers**: Firms such as Hikvision and Kingsoft are recognized for their strong AI capabilities and market positioning, with expectations for sustained growth [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and Chalco [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations in macroeconomic sentiment, the long-term bullish trend for non-ferrous metals remains intact [2]. - In January, the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases, injecting confidence into the precious metals market, while the U.S. ADP employment figures fell short of expectations, indicating a cooling job market [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of copper reserves, with plans to expand national copper strategic reserves and explore commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with supply and demand dynamics affected by seasonal factors [4]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to declining macroeconomic sentiment, with a notable drop in prices observed [5]. - The lithium market is seeing a decline in prices and ongoing inventory reduction, with supply chain dynamics influenced by seasonal production adjustments [9]. - Cobalt prices are also weak, with reduced trading activity as companies prepare for the upcoming holiday season [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In January, China's central bank increased gold purchases from 0.93 tons to 1.24 tons, providing support to the precious metals market [2][41]. - The largest silver ETF recorded a single-day increase of 1,000 tons, marking the third-largest daily increase in history, indicating long-term investor confidence [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are being closely monitored due to increased global inventories and strategic reserve discussions in China [3]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is declining as downstream processing enterprises begin their holiday breaks, leading to increased social inventory [4]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.8% to 132,000 yuan/ton, driven by a cooling macroeconomic sentiment [5]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices dropped by 13.2% to 138,000 yuan/ton, with ongoing inventory reduction and production adjustments ahead of the holiday season [9]. - Cobalt prices decreased by 6.3% to 410,000 yuan/ton, with demand slowing as companies finish pre-holiday stockpiling [10]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies recommended for attention include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao in the precious metals sector, and Chalco and Western Mining in the aluminum sector [2][4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and Chalco [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations in macro sentiment, the long-term bullish trend for non-ferrous metals remains intact. The Chinese central bank's increased gold purchases in January have provided a strong boost to precious metals [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of copper reserves, suggesting that the Chinese government is looking to expand its copper strategic reserve system [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with a stable production capacity but increasing social inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to a cooling macro sentiment, with significant price drops observed in recent weeks [5]. - The report notes that tin prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Lithium prices have seen a decline, with ongoing inventory reduction, while cobalt prices are also under pressure as trading activity weakens ahead of the holiday season [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In January, the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases from 0.93 tons to 1.24 tons, injecting confidence into the precious metals market. The largest silver ETF also saw a significant increase in holdings, indicating long-term investor confidence [2][41]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report stresses the importance of copper strategic reserves, with a recent increase in global copper inventories. The Chinese government is exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is facing short-term price volatility due to geopolitical issues and macroeconomic policies, with production capacity remaining stable but social inventories increasing [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have dropped significantly, with SHFE nickel falling 5.8% to 132,000 CNY/ton due to cooling macro sentiment [5]. - **Tin**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to remain volatile [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report indicates a decline in lithium prices, with carbonate prices dropping 13.2% to 138,000 CNY/ton. Inventory levels are also decreasing [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are under pressure, with a 6.3% drop in domestic electrolytic cobalt prices to 410,000 CNY/ton as trading activity slows [10].