Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.94 billion yuan, up 40.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a decrease of 67% quarter-on-quarter and 49% year-on-year [1] - The decline in Q4 net profit was primarily due to the costs associated with mining rights transfer payments, totaling approximately 514 million yuan [2] - Average prices for metals in Q4 2024 included copper at 75,500 yuan/ton (up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter), tin at 251,000 yuan/ton (down 3.6%), and zinc at 25,500 yuan/ton (up 8.4%) [2] - Tin ingot production in 2024 increased by 19% year-on-year, with production figures for tin, copper, and zinc at 78,500 tons, 130,300 tons, and 145,600 tons respectively [2] Strategic Developments - The company signed a cooperation agreement with the government of Keshiketeng on December 23, 2024, to integrate tin resources in the region [3] - A strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed with Xingye Silver Tin on January 21, 2025, aimed at enhancing collaboration in resources, business, and technology [3] Market Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, with Alphamin Resources announcing a production halt and delays in the resumption of operations in Myanmar [3] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 2.41 billion yuan and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 9% and 3% [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 show a year-on-year growth of 66.5%, 4.1%, and 4.2% respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 10 times [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The反复 US tariff policy has triggered market concerns and affected market risk appetite, while the cautious adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy has also impacted the commodity market. However, the positive support of domestic policies and the continuous recovery of market demand have provided support for commodity prices. Future attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the risk of price fluctuations in the commodity market caused by unexpected changes in the Fed's monetary policy [4][48]. - For aluminum, the macro - overseas policy is still in a state of game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend. In the short term, with macro - support and the peak season resonance, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter [4][102]. - For zinc, in the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter [8]. - For tin, due to frequent problems in overseas mines and the slowdown of the recovery of the supply side, tin prices are expected to remain high in the second quarter [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro: The US Tariff Window is Approaching, Focus on the Evolution of Domestic and Overseas Demand Market Operation Logic - **US**: The manufacturing industry has re - entered the contraction range, with the March ISM manufacturing PMI at 49, down 1.3 points from the previous month. The labor market shows signs of a mild slowdown, and inflation pressure has eased but remains resilient. The Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to suspend interest rate cuts at the May FOMC meeting [18][19][21]. - **Eurozone**: The economic growth momentum is still weak. Although inflation is on a downward trend, the ECB will carefully balance economic growth and inflation risks. The April ECB meeting may suspend interest rate cuts but may release a clearer easing signal, and the probability of a rate cut in June has increased [23][25][26]. - **China**: The economy started smoothly with policies taking the lead. From January to February, infrastructure investment increased significantly, manufacturing investment remained at a high level, and the decline in real estate development investment narrowed. The consumer market showed a mild recovery, and financial data showed strong social financing but weak credit. The domestic price level maintained a mild upward trend [31][33][48]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and the ECB will also balance economic growth and inflation risks. Domestically, the economy continues to recover, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies and insufficient domestic demand. The US tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy changes may cause price fluctuations in the commodity market [47][48]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, the evolution of the US tariff policy, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [50]. 3.2 Aluminum: Expectations are Gradually Verified, Focus on Further Guidance Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q1 2025**: In January, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly and then moved in a range. In February, they oscillated strongly with a slightly higher center of gravity. In March, they first rose and then fell [52][53]. - **Cost Side**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase. The price of alumina is under pressure due to new production capacity. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased due to the rise in auxiliary materials [58][65][68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in March, and the import window is closed. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise slightly in April [71][73]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum narrowed slightly. The import of scrap aluminum increased, but the terminal consumption of the recycled aluminum market was sluggish [76]. - **Demand Side**: The aluminum processing industry entered the expansion range in March. The terminal demand was divided, with strong demand in the power grid, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors, but weak demand in the real estate construction sector [80][86][92]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: In March, the domestic social inventory decreased during the peak season, which supported the price. However, the high - level operation of aluminum prices affected the spot supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry chain [97]. Market Trend Judgment - Macro - overseas policies are still in a game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to develop steadily. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter, with support at 19,500 - 19,800 and pressure at 21,000 - 21,300 [102]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Macro - policy game, overseas event interference, mine resumption and shipping, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [104]. 3.3 Zinc: Short - Term Positive Demand Expectations Provide Support, but Zinc Prices Remain Under Pressure in the Medium - to - Long Term Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in Q1 2025**: In the first quarter, zinc prices fluctuated in a range with a lower center of gravity. In January, they weakened due to weakening fundamental support. In February, they moved in a range. In March, they were boosted by macro and peak - season expectations [106][108][109]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: The production of zinc concentrate is expected to increase, but the overall supply may not recover significantly in 2025. The processing fee continued to rise, indicating that the tight situation of the ore has eased. The import volume increased in the first two months, and the port inventory has improved [112][114][117]. - **Refined Zinc**: The profit of zinc smelters has been continuously repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. The import window is closed, and there is an expectation of a reduction in imports in the second quarter [121][123]. - **Zinc Consumption**: Policy support is expected to boost zinc consumption growth, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Market Trend Judgment - In the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, with a reference price range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Tin: Tight Supply at the Mine End, Tin Prices Remain High Market Operation Logic - **Domestic Refined Tin**: The production of domestic refined tin increased, but the processing fee has dropped to a low level in recent years due to the tight supply of mines [8]. - **Overseas Supply**: Frequent problems in overseas mines, such as the possible delay of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the suspension of the Bisie mine in the DRC, have affected the global supply and pushed up tin prices [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry continues to grow, and the automotive and home appliance markets are optimistic. The overall demand is warm but may not exceed expectations [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - There is no specific information provided in the given content about the later concerns/risk factors for tin.

Group 1: Industrial Gas Industry - The industrial gas industry in China is rapidly developing, with a continuously expanding market size, and the company is optimistic about industrial gas enterprises with stable cash flow and certain revenue scale [3] - The domestic substitution wave in electronic specialty gases is ongoing, and the company is closely monitoring the product development and capacity expansion of industrial gas companies entering this field [3] - Key recommended companies include Huate Gas, Wuhua Technology, China Shipbuilding Gas, Jinhong Gas, and Yakeke [3] Group 2: Gold Market - Historical analysis shows that gold bull markets occur during periods of global economic imbalance and international order changes, with the current period being the third round of value reassessment for gold since 2008 [5] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating due to disruptions in international order, and gold is expected to maintain long-term allocation value as a super-sovereign currency [5] Group 3: WuXi AppTec - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 39.241 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% after excluding COVID-19 commercialization projects, and a net profit of 9.45 billion yuan, meeting expectations [7] - The company’s TIDES-related performance and capacity are rapidly growing, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 10.98 billion, 12.52 billion, and corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [7] Group 4: Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Sector - The valuation of the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector has been shrinking for several years, with some quality companies' PE valuations nearing historical lows [10] - The company suggests actively increasing allocation in the sector, focusing on high-quality companies with limited downside risk and long-term investment value [10] Group 5: CNOOC Engineering - CNOOC Engineering achieved a total revenue of 29.954 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.59% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 33.38% to 2.161 billion yuan [12] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.442 billion, 2.817 billion, and 3.012 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.64, and 0.68 yuan per share [12] Group 6: Zhongzi Technology - Zhongzi Technology reported a decline in performance due to weakened downstream demand and increased investment in new business expansion [15] - The company anticipates production capacity for composite material structural components to be operational by the end of the year, which may drive growth in the humanoid robot sector [15] Group 7: Li Auto - Li Auto's 2024 performance showed a slight decline in gross margin, with a new strategy focusing on smart, pure electric, and overseas expansion for 2025 [18] - The company has adjusted its projected non-GAAP net profits for 2025-2026 to 11.1 billion and 18.6 billion yuan, with an estimated 20.2 billion yuan for 2027 [18] Group 8: Tin Industry - The suspension of mining operations at the Bisie tin mine by Alphamin Resources is expected to reduce global tin output by 5.3%, contributing to ongoing supply tightness [23] - The demand for tin remains strong due to the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors, with current inventory levels being low since 2024 [23]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) led by the rebel group "M23 Movement" is expected to severely impact the mining environment, particularly for tin, copper, cobalt, and tantalum, potentially driving up prices for these metals [1][8]. Group 1: Conflict Overview - The "M23 Movement" has accelerated its advances in eastern DRC, with over 100 armed groups operating in the region, leading to increased security issues [2]. - The group, formed from former government troops, has made significant territorial gains since 2021, including the capture of major cities in North and South Kivu provinces [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Tin Supply - The military conflict has resulted in the suspension of operations at the Bisie mine, which is the largest tin mine in DRC and accounts for approximately 6% of global tin supply [3]. - The Bisie mine, operated by Alphamin Resources, has an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons, and its closure could lead to a supply shortfall of 14,000 tons in 2025 if the mine remains closed until the end of the year [3]. Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The situation in eastern DRC remains uncertain, especially after the "M23 Movement" announced it would not participate in peace talks scheduled for March 18 [4][5]. - Historical patterns show that both the "M23 Movement" and the DRC government have previously used ceasefires to regroup and launch new offensives, indicating a lack of trust and potential for continued conflict [5]. Group 4: Mining Sector Significance - DRC is a crucial player in the global mining industry, with significant reserves of cobalt, tantalum, copper, and tin, contributing 29% of the country's GDP from mining activities [6]. - The country ranks first globally in cobalt and tantalum production, and second in copper, highlighting the importance of the mining sector to both the local and global economy [6].

Macro - The U.S. retail data for February showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which was below the expected 0.6%, indicating weak consumer momentum [4] - The January retail growth rate was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%, suggesting ongoing economic pressure influenced by policy misalignment [4] - The overall weak retail data aligns with expectations of two to three potential interest rate cuts in 2025 [4] Industrial Gas - The industrial gas industry in China is rapidly developing, with a continuously expanding market size [5] - There is a focus on companies with stable cash flow and certain revenue scale, particularly those entering the electronic specialty gas sector amid domestic substitution trends [5] Real Estate - In February, the transaction area of new residential properties in 30 core cities reached 8.21 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [6] - For January-February, the cumulative transaction area in these cities increased by 5.7%, with average transaction prices up by 7.3% year-on-year [6] - The second-hand housing market also saw significant growth, with a 75.2% year-on-year increase in transaction area in 15 core cities for February [6] Nonferrous Metals - The suspension of mining operations at the Bisie tin mine by Alphamin Resources is expected to reduce global tin production by 5.3% [7] - The supply tightness in the tin market is likely to persist, with low inventory levels in both Shanghai and London [7] Construction Materials - Fixed asset investment data for January-February indicates a potential economic recovery, with infrastructure investment growing by 9.95% year-on-year [9] - Narrowly defined infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) also saw a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [9] Electric Vehicles - BYD launched its new generation pure electric technology platform, the Super e platform, on March 17, 2025 [10] - The pre-sale prices for the Han L and Tang L models are set between 270,000 to 350,000 yuan and 280,000 to 360,000 yuan, respectively, with an official launch scheduled for April [10] Company Analysis - Zhongzi Technology reported a revenue of 1.562 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, but faced a net loss of 26.86 million yuan [11] - The decline in performance is attributed to weakened downstream demand and increased investment in new business development [11] - The production capacity for composite material structural components is expected to be operational by the end of the year, potentially expanding into the humanoid robot sector [11]

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： Alphamin Resources于3月13日宣布:董事会已做出艰难决定，暂停公司在刚果民主共和国(DRC)中东部北基 伍省瓦利卡莱区 Bisie锡矿的采矿作业。这一决定是在最近动乱武装团体向西推进，2025年3月9日占领了 位于Goma西北部约110公里的Osso-Banyungu区首府Nyabiondo以及2025年3月12日进一步向西13公里的 Kashebere之后做出的。公司的员工和承包商的安全仍然是其首要任务，目前无法保证。所有运营采矿人员 正在从矿场撤离，只留下必要人员。 点评： 2023年4月，缅甸佤邦发布通知，称从2023年8月起，缅甸佤邦锡矿将停止一切勘探、开采、加工等作业。根据 USGS数据，2023年缅甸锡 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance exceeding the market by more than 5% over the next six months [61]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: As of March 14, the COMEX gold futures contract increased by 2.6% to $2993.6 per ounce, supported by rising market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The SPDR Gold ETF also saw a 1.3% increase to 906.41 tons. The overall outlook suggests that gold prices will continue to show strength in the long term due to persistent inflation expectations and weakening dollar credibility [5]. - Industrial Metals: Supply disruptions across multiple varieties are expected to drive price increases in industrial metals. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these trends [6]. - Copper: As of March 14, SHFE copper futures rose by 2.8% to 80,500 RMB per ton. Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 355,000 tons, indicating a gradual recovery in downstream demand. The report suggests that copper's "hard commodity" nature will become more pronounced, leading to a potential price increase [8][10]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.7% to 20,990 RMB per ton. The report notes a continuous decline in alumina prices, which may support aluminum profits. The overall outlook for aluminum remains positive due to expected demand recovery [8][10]. - Tin: SHFE tin futures surged by 9.47% to 287,800 RMB per ton. The report indicates a significant supply gap due to the temporary shutdown of the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could exacerbate the tin supply shortage. The demand from the semiconductor sector is also expected to rise, enhancing the long-term outlook for tin [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices reached new highs, with a significant increase in both futures and ETF holdings. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts, which may further support gold prices [5]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Price increase noted, with a decrease in domestic inventory and a focus on long-term demand growth [8][10]. - **Aluminum**: Positive outlook due to recovering demand and declining costs, with a recommendation to monitor the sector [8][10]. - **Tin**: Significant price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from the semiconductor industry [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors. Specific companies recommended include Zijin Mining for copper, Tianshan Shares for aluminum, and Xiyang Shares for tin, based on their potential for strong performance in the upcoming months [10].

Industry Dynamics - Alphamin Resources has suspended operations at its Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with all mining personnel being evacuated except for a few essential staff for maintenance and safety [1] - The Bisie mine is the third largest tin mine globally, with a projected tin concentrate output of 17,300 tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin supply [1][2] Comments - The resumption of tin mining in Wa State, Myanmar, will take time, and supply disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo are intensifying the supply tightness [2] - The Wa State tin mines are expected to take about a month to resume production, with output anticipated in the second half of the year [2] - The suspension of operations at the Bisie mine may lead to a short-term production recovery challenge, further exacerbating the supply tightness in the tin market [2] - As of March 13, the processing fee for tin concentrate in Yunnan has dropped to 12,700 yuan per ton, which is at the 23rd percentile of the past five years [2] Demand Outlook - The AI wave and policies promoting growth, such as the replacement of old products, are expected to improve demand for tin [3] - In 2024, the global tin consumption structure is projected to have 7% for photovoltaic solder strips and 50% for other tin solder materials [3] - The rise of DeepSeek is accelerating the AI trend, making tin-based solder materials the preferred choice for connecting chips and circuit boards due to their excellent soldering performance [3] - The market reform of on-grid electricity prices for new energy is expected to drive a rush in the domestic photovoltaic industry, boosting demand for photovoltaic solder strips [3] - Policies promoting the replacement of old products are likely to increase demand for tin solder materials in home appliances and automotive sectors [3] - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.5 billion in January, a year-on-year increase of 18% [3] Supply and Inventory - Supply disruptions may lead to increased safety stock requirements in the downstream industry, intensifying short-term supply-demand conflicts [3] - As of March 13, LME and SHFE tin inventories were 3,500 tons and 7,082 tons respectively, down 57% and 60% from their 2024 peaks, both at the 38th percentile of the past five years [3] - Domestic social tin ingot inventory was 8,399 tons as of March 7, also down 57% from its 2024 peak, at the 37th percentile of the past four years [3] Long-term Outlook - The tin supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight in the medium to long term, with a widening short-term supply-demand gap likely to support rising tin prices [4] - The projected supply-demand gaps for the tin industry from 2025 to 2027 are -14,000 tons, -3,000 tons, and -8,000 tons, representing -4%, -1%, and -2% of demand respectively [4]

行业动态 行业近况 3月13日晚，Alphamin Resources宣布[1]，已暂停其刚果（金）东部Bisie矿山的运营，目前公司正在撤离 所有采矿作业人员，仅留少量必要人员负责矿山的维护、安全和基本管理。据ITA国际锡协数据[2]，Bisie 矿是全球第三大锡矿，2024年锡精矿产量达1.73万吨，约占全球锡矿供应量的6%。 [1] https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HUHlEyQgT3QT2NryYF3i7A [2]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HUHlEyQgT3QT2NryYF3i7A [3]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/y8XwJ7PlaPS7Tk3dnpV8Ag [4]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/y8XwJ7PlaPS7Tk3dnpV8Ag 锡交易所和国内社会库存较2024年高点大幅去化。我们认为，供应扰动或将推升下游产业链安全库存需 求，从而激化短期供需矛盾。 据iFinD，截至3月13日，LME、SHFE锡库存分别为3500、7082吨，较2024 年高点-57%、-60%，均位于近五年38%分位 ...

Group 1: BC Equipment and Manufacturing Industry - BC is currently the most visible expansion direction, with leading manufacturers planning to add 40-65 GW/year of BC capacity from 2024 to 2027, alongside a significant increase from the existing 780 GW TOPCon upgrades [1] - BC technology offers significant equipment flexibility, primarily involving 2-3 laser processes and 1 coating process, with a notable increase in the use of LPCVD equipment [1] - Risks include slower-than-expected technological advancements in BC, reduced willingness to upgrade battery capacity, and potential market competition deterioration [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Debt Market - Some commercial banks have recently sold bonds from OCI and AC accounts to realize floating profits, which may amplify market impacts in a volatile debt market [2] - The current selling behavior of banks is not expected to trigger a market panic, with short-term adjustments facing less pressure compared to long-term [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - Hohhot has introduced new childbirth subsidy details, with the maximum subsidy reaching 100,000 yuan per child, indicating a potential nationwide rollout of similar policies [4] - If extrapolated nationwide, the fiscal subsidy scale is estimated to reach 901 billion, 1,363 billion, and 1,825 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, still falling short of international standards [4] Group 4: Defense and Aerospace Industry - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights deep-sea technology for the first time, indicating a focus on deep-sea development and potential investment opportunities in acoustic and titanium materials [6] - Risks include accelerated competition among countries, potential underperformance in enterprise capacity expansion, and fluctuations in raw material costs [6] Group 5: Coal Industry - The coal sector has seen improved expectations, leading to a rise in stock prices, driven by high dividend styles, stable thermal coal prices, and optimized stock structures [8] - The bottom price expectation for coal is becoming clearer, with potential price increases if demand improves and inventory decreases [8] Group 6: Property Services Sector - The historical issues facing private property service companies have dissipated, with strong dividend attractiveness and sustainable cash flow [10] - The upcoming 2024 annual reports are expected to confirm high dividends and a vision for stable long-term development [10] Group 7: Tin Industry - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo could lead to a significant reduction in global tin supply, potentially increasing tin prices above 300,000 yuan/ton [12] - The expected supply gap in 2025 may widen due to the suspension and slower-than-expected recovery of Myanmar's tin mines [12] Group 8: New Materials in Military Industry - Defense spending is projected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for military materials and potential valuation recovery for upstream companies [13] - The military industry is at a turning point, with significant demand expected to be released in 2025 [13]