Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 0.62% on November 19, with Xiamen Airport leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.09, unchanged [1] Stock Performance - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 56.05, up 1.95% with a trading volume of 97,300 shares and a transaction value of 54.5 million [1] - China National Aviation (601111) closed at 8.77, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 682,100 shares and a transaction value of 601 million [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 16.66, down 3.25% with a trading volume of 96,500 shares and a transaction value of 162 million [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 274 million from institutional investors and 175 million from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 449 million [2] - Major stocks like Spring Airlines and China National Aviation experienced mixed capital flows, with Spring Airlines seeing a net inflow of 42.9 million from institutional investors [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Xiamen Airport had a significant net outflow of 21.74 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 28.31 million [3] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) faced a net outflow of 4.71 million from institutional investors but saw a net inflow of 51.1 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall passenger load factor of listed airlines in October improved by approximately 1.8 percentage points year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in the industry supply-demand relationship [2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Routes - In October, the capacity deployment for domestic routes by listed companies increased by about 3.6% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month, driven by the 8-day National Day holiday [3]. - The overall passenger load factor for listed companies in October rose by approximately 1.8 percentage points compared to the same month last year and also increased by 1.8 percentage points from September [3]. - Airlines such as China Southern, China Eastern, and Hainan Airlines achieved passenger load factors exceeding 89%, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines surpassed 90% [3]. - The passenger load factors for China Eastern and Air China improved by over 2% year-on-year, with all six listed airlines showing year-on-year increases [3]. - October saw the highest passenger load factors of the year for China Southern, Air China, and Spring Airlines, while China Eastern, Hainan Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines were slightly below the peak levels of August [3]. Group 2: International Routes - The capacity deployment for international routes by listed airlines increased by approximately 14.3% year-on-year and 6.7% month-on-month in October [3]. - The passenger load factor for international routes improved by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year and by about 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - Except for Air China, all other airlines saw their capacity deployment for international routes grow by over 15% year-on-year, with Hainan Airlines experiencing an increase of over 25% due to a low base last year [4]. - The data indicates a potential oversupply in international routes, as the airline with the most significant capacity increase, China Eastern, saw a decrease in passenger load factor by about 2 percentage points month-on-month [4]. Group 3: Industry Policy Changes - A recent travel advisory issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding travel to Japan may impact demand for related routes in the coming months [5]. - Multiple airlines have announced special handling plans for tickets related to Japan routes, allowing free cancellations or changes for eligible tickets before December 31 [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The publication of the "Self-Regulation Convention for Air Passenger Transport" by the China Air Transport Association in August has laid the foundation for reducing market chaos and improving revenue levels [6]. - The ongoing efforts to combat excessive competition in the industry are expected to accelerate the process of industry rebalancing, significantly benefiting overall profitability [6]. - Large airlines are anticipated to benefit more from these changes, suggesting a focus on these companies for investment opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor, and ticket prices have shown a positive trend since October 2025. This is expected to lead to a significant recovery in airline unit revenue. The implementation of measures against "involution" and the "Self-Regulation Convention" is anticipated to reduce malicious low pricing, further supporting ticket price recovery and airline profitability. Additionally, the decline in oil prices is expected to lower costs, enhancing airline earnings potential. Key airlines to focus on include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Since the beginning of 2025, the industry has seen sustained high passenger load factors. The supply-demand dynamics indicate a slowdown in capacity growth, with airlines focusing on international routes. The overall passenger turnover has shown steady growth, and ticket prices have been recovering since October, leading to improved airline unit revenue and performance in the fourth quarter [12][13]. 2. Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices - The industry has experienced a continued high passenger load factor, with the September 2025 load factor reaching 86.3%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. In October, the combined passenger turnover for six major airlines showed a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [3][21]. - Ticket prices have shown a positive trend since November, with the average domestic ticket price at 850 RMB, down 7.2% year-on-year. However, from October to mid-November, the average ticket price for domestic routes was 738 RMB, reflecting a 0.3% increase year-on-year [4][22]. 3. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel remained stable year-on-year, with domestic aviation fuel prices at 5572 RMB/ton in October and 5625 RMB/ton in November, showing minimal change. The exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated since the beginning of 2025, with the USD to RMB exchange rate decreasing by 1.43% from the end of 2024 to mid-November 2025 [4][36]. 4. Airline Capacity and Operations - In October 2025, most airlines reported a year-on-year increase in capacity, with domestic routes showing steady growth. The passenger load factor for domestic routes was notably high, with significant increases in turnover for major airlines. The introduction of new aircraft has also been observed, with Hainan Airlines adding four new aircraft in October, the highest among the six major airlines [5][43].

Economic News - The People's Bank of China and 12 departments issued a plan to enhance financial support for consumption in Beijing, focusing on the automotive sector, especially new energy vehicles, with measures including reasonable loan ratios, terms, and interest rates [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released guidelines for building high-standard digital parks, aiming to establish around 200 parks by 2027 and promote digital transformation for industrial enterprises [1] - The State Post Bureau reported that the postal industry generated a revenue of 156.42 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with express delivery revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% [1][4] Company Insights - Xiaomi Group reported an adjusted net profit of 11.311 billion yuan for the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 80.9% [4] - O-film Technology plans to issue shares to acquire a 28.2461% stake in O-film Microelectronics [4] - Tianyi Ma intends to purchase a 98.56% stake in Xingyun Kaiwu for a transaction amount of 1.189 billion yuan [4] Industry Analysis: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - In October, pig prices showed a slight rebound but lacked sustained support, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 25.80 yuan/kg, 12.57 yuan/kg, and 23.41 yuan/kg respectively, reflecting month-on-month declines of 14.19%, 8.95%, and 4.47% [7] - The supply side saw a decrease in the breeding sow inventory, with a reported 40.35 million heads, down 0.70% from the previous month, indicating potential for accelerated capacity reduction due to low prices and policy adjustments [8] - The industry anticipates a gradual acceleration in capacity reduction, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods reducing their breeding sow inventory significantly [9] Industry Analysis: Transportation - The airline industry experienced an overall improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with an increase in passenger load factors in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.8 percentage points [12][13] - Domestic airlines increased capacity by about 3.6% year-on-year in October, driven by the National Day holiday, which boosted travel demand [13] - International route capacity saw a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 14.3%, although there are concerns about potential oversupply as passenger load factors remained stable [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods, which have strong cost advantages and high performance visibility [9] - In the airline sector, the report highlights the importance of maintaining supply control and improving load factors to enhance profitability, recommending attention to major airlines benefiting from these trends [17]

Core Insights - Approximately 491,000 tickets for flights to Japan have been canceled by Chinese airlines since November 15, representing about 32% of total bookings to Japan, marking the largest ticket cancellation event since early 2020 [1][2] - The impact on the Chinese domestic airline industry is expected to be limited due to the relatively small market size of the China-Japan route compared to the overall domestic and international market [2] - The reduction in Chinese tourists to Japan could significantly impact Japan's economy, potentially decreasing GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points if the number of Chinese visitors is halved [2] Flight Cancellations - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, have implemented special ticket handling policies for flights to Japan, allowing for fee-free changes or full refunds for tickets booked for travel between November 15 and December 31, 2025 [3] - Other airlines, such as Sichuan Airlines and Spring Airlines, have also canceled flights to Japan during early 2026 [4] Hotel Cancellations - There has been a notable increase in hotel cancellations, with travelers sharing successful refund experiences on social media, including full refunds for previously non-cancellable hotel bookings [5] Tour Group Cancellations - Several travel agencies have suspended new bookings for tours to Japan, with full refunds offered for previously paid fees [6] - Online travel agencies have also stopped accepting orders for popular routes to Japan, reflecting a swift adjustment to market changes [6] Economic Impact - The decline in Chinese tourists, who are a significant source of visitors to Japan, is expected to have a major negative impact on Japan's tourism industry [8] - Japanese business leaders are urging for political stability to ensure economic exchanges, highlighting the interconnectedness of political and economic relations between China and Japan [8]

文/王潇雨 自9月初俄罗斯总统普京公开表示将对华实施免签政策，以作为中国对俄免签的对等回应以来时隔两个 多月，终于迎来了更进一步的消息。 据环球网援引俄罗斯多家媒体报道，当地时间11月18日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，针对中国公民赴俄免签 政策将于近期生效。 这一消息犹如为年底航空客运市场淡季"添柴"，瞬时引发相关航线搜索和预定量的增加。 今年9月15日开始至2026年9月14日，中国已经开始对俄罗斯持普通护照人员试行免签政策。俄罗斯持普 通护照人员来华经商、旅游观光、探亲访友、交流访问、过境不超过30天，可免办签证入境。 责任编辑：黄兴利 主编：寒丰 据航空数据分析机构航旅纵横发布的最新数据显示，截至11月19日，2026年1月1日-1月3日，国内前往 俄罗斯的机票预订量同比去年增长约32%。 俄罗斯一直以来都是受中国游客欢迎的目的地之一，此前俄罗斯对中国团队游客实施了免签政策，但个 人旅行者前往依然需要办理签证。 根据在线旅游服务商同程旅行此前发布的数据显示，今年前八个月，该平台上国内主要城市与俄罗斯之 间直飞机票预订热度同比增长超20%，其中以莫斯科、圣彼得堡、摩尔曼斯克、喀山等目的地热度最 高。 同程旅行方 ...

Group 1 - The aviation stocks are experiencing a general recovery, with China National Airlines rising by 2.8% to HKD 6.6, Southern Airlines increasing by 2.05% to HKD 5.48, Eastern Airlines up by 1.69% to HKD 4.81, and Meilan Airport gaining 1.06% to HKD 2.85 [1] - As of November 18, domestic crude oil futures have rebounded over 7% from a one-month low, with the main contract reaching a high of CNY 466.2 per barrel, indicating a volatile oil market influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] - Haitong Futures notes that while there is a natural downward pressure on oil prices due to oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties continue to inject volatility into the market, suggesting that oil prices will maintain a fluctuating trend for some time [1] Group 2 - Cathay Haitong's report indicates that the seasonal impact at the end of October was weaker than in previous years, with airlines maintaining high passenger load factors and ticket prices rising year-on-year [2] - The estimated passenger load factor for international routes in September-October exceeded 80%, a year-on-year increase of over 3 percentage points, driving ticket prices significantly higher than market expectations [2] - Zhongtai Securities highlights that the current favorable conditions in oil prices and exchange rates suggest a "not-so-slow" trend for the fourth quarter, with expectations of significant loss reduction in the aviation industry by Q4 2025 and potential profit elasticity in 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The aviation stocks are experiencing a general recovery, with notable increases in share prices for major airlines [1] - China National Aviation (00753.HK) rose by 2.8%, reaching HKD 6.6 [1] - Southern Airlines (01055.HK) increased by 2.05%, trading at HKD 5.48 [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670.HK) saw a rise of 1.69%, priced at HKD 4.81 [1] - Meilan Airport (00357.HK) gained 1.06%, with shares at HKD 2.85 [1]

Group 1 - The aviation stocks are experiencing a general recovery, with China National Airlines rising by 2.8% to HKD 6.6, Southern Airlines increasing by 2.05% to HKD 5.48, Eastern Airlines up by 1.69% to HKD 4.81, and Meilan Airport gaining 1.06% to HKD 2.85 [1] - As of November 18, domestic crude oil futures have rebounded over 7% from a one-month low, with the main contract reaching a high of CNY 466.2 per barrel, indicating a volatile oil market influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] - Haitong Futures suggests that while there is a natural downward pressure on oil prices due to oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties are providing a counterbalance, leading to continued high volatility in oil prices [1] Group 2 - Cathay Haitong's report indicates that the seasonal impact at the end of October is weaker than in previous years, with airlines maintaining high load factors and ticket prices rising year-on-year [2] - The estimated load factor for international routes in September-October is over 80%, an increase of more than 3 percentage points year-on-year, driving ticket prices significantly higher than market expectations [2] - Zhongtai Securities notes that the current favorable conditions in oil prices and exchange rates suggest a "not-so-slow" trend for the fourth quarter, with expectations of significant loss reduction in the aviation industry by Q4 2025 and potential profit elasticity in 2026 [2]

淡季票价持续转正，该行继续强调积极看待航空股投资机会，行业客座率升至年内最高，票价同比转 正，周期向上拐点已现。重点推荐：看好中国国航、南方航空、中国东航三大航弹性释放。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 4.890 | 3.38% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 5.540 | 3.17% | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 6.610 | 2.96% | | 02588 | 中银航空租赁 | 71.550 | 0.56% | | 00293 | 国泰航空 | 11.910 | 0.08% | | 00357 | 美兰空港 | 10.520 | 0.57% | 11月19日，港股航空股再度活跃上涨，其中，国航、东航、南航涨幅均超3%，国泰航空、美兰空港跟 涨。 消息上，华创证券研报指出，受民航换季及外部事件因素影响，中国大陆-日本周度航班量下滑，第45 周（11.03-11.09)周航班量1189班次，恢复率（较2019年同期）为82.9%，环比第40周下降14.5%，但国 际航线中长 ...