Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in metal prices, particularly precious metals like gold and silver, has significantly benefited upstream mining companies, while downstream processing industries are facing cost pressures due to rising raw material prices [2][3][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices have rebounded, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1% [1]. - Silver prices have also seen substantial increases, with the London spot silver price rising from under $29 per ounce to over $121 per ounce, marking a maximum increase of 330% [2]. Group 2: Mining Companies' Profitability - Major mining companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to report significant net profits, with Zijin Mining's projected net profit reaching 52 billion yuan, a 59% year-on-year increase, and Luoyang Molybdenum's projected net profit at 20.8 billion yuan, a 47.8% to 53.71% increase [3][4]. - Other mining companies are also experiencing substantial profit growth, with Shenghe Resources' net profit expected to increase by up to 339% and Huayu Mining by up to 255% [3]. Group 3: Downstream Industry Challenges - The downstream processing sector is facing significant cost pressures due to rising prices of raw materials, which are not being fully passed down the supply chain [5]. - Companies like Loping Zinc Electric are reporting losses due to increased procurement costs for zinc concentrate, highlighting the challenges faced by the downstream industry [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong performance, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, and a further increase to 50.81% in the third quarter [7][8]. - The non-ferrous mining index has demonstrated a ten-year annualized growth rate of nearly 15%, indicating strong long-term performance potential [6][10]. - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for precious metals, citing ongoing demand and macroeconomic factors that support price stability [11].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance and outlook of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the performance of the Huatai ETF and the broader market dynamics affecting metal prices and investments. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 4, 2026, the China Securities Non-ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) decreased by 0.32%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Notable gainers included Shenhuo Co., Ltd. up 1.73%, China Aluminum Corporation up 1.60%, and Luoyang Molybdenum up 1.51%, while Western Gold fell by 6.55% [1] - The Huatai Non-ferrous ETF (159652) saw a slight increase of 0.05%, with a recent price of 1.95 yuan, and a two-week cumulative increase of 2.59% [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Huatai Non-ferrous ETF's latest scale reached 6.403 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 51.56 million yuan recently [3] - Over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 96.57 million yuan, averaging 19.31 million yuan per day [3] - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 2.21% with a transaction volume of 143 million yuan [1] Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Outlook - The sentiment in the precious metals sector improved significantly as spot gold prices surpassed $5,000 per ounce, with a daily increase exceeding 2% [3] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has included copper concentrate in its reserve scope, indicating potential upward pressure on copper prices due to supply disruptions and capital expenditure shortages [3] - Institutions are optimistic about the non-ferrous sector, with expectations of high profitability sustained for 3-5 years due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic easing [3] Group 4: ETF Characteristics and Advantages - The Huatai Non-ferrous ETF (159652) covers a wide range of metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, positioning it to benefit from a super cycle in non-ferrous metals [5] - The ETF has a leading "gold-copper content" with 34% copper and 12% gold, totaling 46%, which is superior to its peers [7] - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, with a maximum drawdown lower than that of similar funds, indicating a better investment experience [9]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached $13,512.63 per ton, with a daily increase of 0.26% [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association suggested improving the copper resource reserve system, including expanding national copper strategic reserves and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [1] - Current copper prices are under pressure due to expectations of a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, but the supply-demand fundamentals remain strong, with a projected widening global copper mine gap and increasing demand from AI infrastructure [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) includes 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index account for 55.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

Group 1 - The spot gold price surpassed $5000, increasing by over 2% on the morning of the 4th, with domestic gold jewelry prices rising significantly [1] - Dongwu Securities noted that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has created a "hawkish" impression, negatively impacting market risk appetite and leading to a downward spiral in precious metals due to high leverage among bulls [1] - The overall precious metals market is expected to maintain a volatile bottoming pattern in the short term, with gold anticipated to have upward momentum after a period of low consolidation [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) had a 0.64% increase, with notable gains from stocks such as Hunan Gold (3.11%) and Huayou Cobalt (3.03%) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 49.87% of the index, including Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rebound in precious metals, with spot gold surging by 5.96% in a single day, reaching over $4,980 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008 [1] - Spot silver also experienced a dramatic rise, with an intraday increase of over 10%, surpassing the $89 mark [1] - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector opened strongly, with the non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) rising by 2.11%, and leading stocks such as Hunan Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Copper showing notable gains [1] Group 2 - The rebound is attributed to technical recovery and long-term value reassessment, with gold prices hitting key support levels after a historic drop, prompting short sellers to cover positions and long-term investors to buy on dips [1] - The fundamental support for a long-term bull market in gold remains intact, driven by expectations of global monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases, which form the value foundation after price declines [1] - The market is expected to experience high volatility in the near term, with gold prices likely entering a wide fluctuation phase unless new macro catalysts emerge [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) has a high concentration in its top three weighted commodities: copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), accounting for nearly 60% of its total [3] - The ETF is described as a "non-ferrous amplifier" due to its concentrated investment in upstream resource leaders, where rising prices of non-ferrous metals lead to significant profit increases, resulting in a "Davis double play" effect with net value growth multiples exceeding that of the commodities themselves [3]

科网股多数走低，美团、快手、腾讯控股、携程集团、华虹半导体、哔哩哔哩、百度集团均跌超1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 - | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美团-W | 91.500 | -1.700 | -1.82% | | 快手-W | 72.150 | -1.300 | -1.77% | | 携程集团-S | 476.600 | -8.200 | -1.69% | | 金蝶国际 | 12.450 | -0.210 | -1.66% | | 腾讯控股 | 572.000 | -9.000 | -1.55% | | 零跑汽车 | 39.000 | -0.600 | -1.52% | | 华虹米音体 | 106.300 | -1.400 | -1.30% | | 比亚迪股份 | 88.900 | -1.100 | -1.22% | | 哔哩哔哩-W | 250.000 | -3.000 | -1.19% | | 百度集团-SW | 139.900 | -1.500 | -1.06% | | 阿里巴巴-W | 159.400 | -1.600 | -0.99% | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Copper concentrate is expected to be included in the strategic reserve scope, enhancing the status of key metals [8] - The global average copper ore grade is declining, leading to a sustained tight supply trend, which may further elevate copper's status as a critical metal [8] - The "anti-involution" policy in copper smelting remains unchanged, with expectations for copper prices and smelting fees to rise in the medium term [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The copper resource reserve system is being improved, with plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms. The import dependency of domestic copper concentrate has reached 75%, indicating a need for enhanced supply chain security [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major copper mining companies have reported a decline in copper production due to falling ore grades. The insufficient capital expenditure by mining companies and the decreasing rate of significant copper resource discoveries suggest that supply will not increase significantly in the medium term. Meanwhile, demand from traditional sectors and emerging fields like renewable energy is expected to grow [8] Policy and Market Trends - The domestic copper smelting capacity is being strictly controlled, with over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects halted. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually show effects in the next two to three years, leading to a potential upward correction in smelting fees [8] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its large resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable companies include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [8] - For copper smelting, attention is drawn to Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy), which is expected to benefit from increased copper concentrate self-sufficiency and improved spot smelting fee expectations. Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) is also mentioned [8]

2月4日，港股低开，恒生指数跌0.14%，恒生科技指数跌0.87%。 科网股多数走低，美团、快手、腾讯控股、携程集团、华虹半导体、哔哩哔哩、百度集团均跌超1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美团-W | 91.500 | -1.700 | -1.82% | | 快手-W | 72.150 | -1.300 | -1.77% | | 携程集团-S | 476.600 | -8.200 | -1.69% | | 金蝶国际 | 12.450 | -0.210 | -1.66% | | 腾讯控股 | 572.000 | -9.000 | -1.55% | | 零跑汽车 | 39.000 | -0.600 | -1.52% | | 交汇录备体 | 106.300 | -1.400 | -1.30% | | 比 亚迪股份 | 88.900 | -1.100 | -1.22% | | 昨週昨週-W | 250.000 | -3.000 | -1.19% | | 百度集团-SW | 139.900 | -1.500 | -1.06% | | 阿里巴 ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 风物长宜放眼量 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2026 年第 5 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 金银比突破 50，贵金属有望带领工业金属 加 速 上 涨 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 （2 ...

Fixed Income Research - The net financing amount is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated. The overall change in the issuance guidance rates published by the trading association has mostly decreased by 5 to 1 basis points. In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with only medium-term notes seeing a decrease in issuance amount, while other varieties saw increases. The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes showing a decrease, while other varieties saw increases. Corporate bonds, directional tools had negative net financing, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds had positive net financing [2][3]. - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with transaction amounts for all varieties declining. The yield on credit bonds remained low and fluctuated, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yield. The credit spread for most varieties narrowed month-on-month, with the varieties that widened mainly concentrated in the 7-year term. Most varieties' spreads are at historical lows. From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will continue to drive the recovery of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable due to various factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds remain insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible [3]. Fund Research - In January, the market for actively managed equity funds saw a significant increase in issuance, with a total of 88 new funds issued, amounting to 91.48 billion yuan. The issuance of actively managed equity funds and passive equity funds was 41.70 billion units and 19.62 billion units, respectively, with a significant increase in the issuance of actively managed equity funds. Overall, the issuance market for equity funds has warmed up significantly, especially for actively managed equity funds [6][7]. - The performance of equity markets was outstanding in January, with all types of funds showing varying degrees of increase. The average increase for commodity funds was the largest at 17.92%. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the mid-cap balanced style had the largest increase at 8.99%, while the large-cap value style had the smallest increase at approximately 4.22% [8]. Industry Research - The valuation repair of the real estate chain can continue, with positive signals from the government regarding real estate policies. The market is transitioning from a large-scale expansion phase to a focus on quality improvement. The goal is to actively construct a new development model for real estate, emphasizing both short-term and long-term strategies. The sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations, and investors with a higher risk appetite may consider early positioning, especially in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [4][10]. - In the paper industry, several leading companies have announced price increases for white cardboard and corrugated paper, with expected price hikes of 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard and 30-50 yuan/ton for corrugated paper. The upcoming annual maintenance period for paper companies will disrupt supply, while the approaching Spring Festival will boost packaging demand from e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors, supporting price increases [12]. - In the metals industry, the steel sector is expected to continue a weak performance due to the Spring Festival holiday, with production and demand both shrinking. The copper market is also anticipated to see inventory accumulation due to reduced production activities during the holiday, with a focus on post-holiday demand verification [13][15].