Core Viewpoint - Economists expect future policies to maintain continuity, stability, and flexibility, with a focus on promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery [1][24][26]. Economic Indicators - The Chief Economist Confidence Index for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [5]. - Predictions for December 2025 include a CPI year-on-year growth rate of 0.8%, a PPI year-on-year decline of 2%, and an industrial added value growth rate of 4.9% [1][7][10]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 2.2%, while social retail sales are projected to grow by 1.8% [1][9][11]. - The trade surplus is forecasted at $1113.5 billion, with new loans expected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan [1][15][18]. - M2 money supply is predicted to grow by 8% year-on-year [21][22]. Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the use of various monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth [1][24][25]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with an increase in central budget investments and a focus on optimizing expenditure structures [5][24][26]. Sector-Specific Insights - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a predicted decline in real estate development investment of 15.8% [12][14]. - Consumer spending is under pressure, with retail sales growth expected to slow due to seasonal effects and high base comparisons from the previous year [9][10]. - Manufacturing investment remains stable, supported by exports and production, despite a decline in foreign investment impacting private sector investment [6][10].

作者丨王峰 编辑丨陈洁 博士生培养是高等教育的"高精尖"部分，一场全球博士生培养变革正在加速推进。 麦可思研究院近日发布《中国—世界高等教育趋势报告（2026）》（下称《报告》），这是麦 可思连续第四年发布高等教育趋势报告。 《报告》指出，过去数十年间，全球博士生培养规模持续扩张，其中新兴经济体的博士群体更 是呈现爆发式增长态势。 一方面，学术界与产业界的吸纳空间趋于饱和，直接导致博士人才 供需失衡；另一方面，传统博士培养偏重学术理论型模式，与产业界强调的问题导向的工程思 维型模式脱节。 《报告》因此认为，全球博士培养变革已迫在眉睫。 值得注意的是，中国的博士生培养与发达国家相比有明显差异，一方面中国的博士学历人口占 比远远落后于主要发达国家，博士生培养仍需加力；另一方面中国的工程博士培养试点正给全 球教育评价改革贡献经验。 全球减招文科博士潮 根据经济合作与发展组织（OECD）数据，其38个成员国的博士或同等学力水平毕业生数量在 2013—2021年间整体呈现增长趋势。特别是在一些新兴经济体，增长更为迅猛。 比如在墨西哥，博士或同等学力水平毕业生人数从2013年的5013人快速增长至2021年的14587 ...

21世纪经济报道记者王峰北京报道 博士生培养是高等教育的"高精尖"部分，一场全球博士生培养变革正在加速推进。 全球减招文科博士潮 根据经济合作与发展组织（OECD）数据，其38个成员国的博士或同等学力水平毕业生数量在2013—2021年间整体呈现增长 趋势。特别是在一些新兴经济体，增长更为迅猛。 比如在墨西哥，博士或同等学力水平毕业生人数从2013年的5013人快速增长至2021年的14587人。 《报告》指出，从全球范围来看，全球博士供给过剩是不争的事实，特别是在某些学科问题更为突出。这突出表现在，学术 界的岗位数量没有和博士文凭持有者的增长速度保持同步，这导致了有限岗位的竞争异常激烈。 2022年英国一家研究机构的报告显示，2018/2019届博士毕业生在高等教育领域就业的比例不到一半。生物医药科学博士毕 业生在高等教育领域的就业比例（39.5%），明显低于艺术与人文（54.0%）与社会科学领域博士毕业生（72.0%）。 麦可思研究院近日发布《中国—世界高等教育趋势报告（2026）》（下称《报告》），这是麦可思连续第四年发布高等教育 趋势报告。 《报告》指出，过去数十年间，全球博士生培养规模持续扩张，其中 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China's economy is expected to maintain a stable, advancing, and resilient pattern, boosting global economic confidence as foreign enterprises continue to invest in the Chinese market [1][2] - The number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises in China reached 61,207 in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with November alone seeing 7,425 new enterprises, a 35.3% increase [2] - A report by KPMG indicates that 94% of multinational companies surveyed plan to continue investing in China, reflecting a more optimistic outlook compared to the global economy [2] Group 2 - Significant foreign investments include Bosch's commitment of 10 billion RMB to an intelligent driving control project in Suzhou and Danfoss's 2.7 billion RMB investment in a future factory in Zhejiang [2] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to create a more open trade environment, enhancing international competitiveness for companies like Charoen Pokphand Group, which has invested 2 billion RMB in the region [3] - In the first 11 months of 2025, foreign investment in high-tech industries such as e-commerce services, medical equipment manufacturing, and aerospace manufacturing grew by 127%, 46.5%, and 41.9% respectively, indicating a shift towards high-tech sectors [3] Group 3 - Schneider Electric's Shanghai factory has improved production efficiency by 82% and reduced order delivery time by 67% through the integration of AI technologies, highlighting China's role as a global hub for AI innovation [4] - Qualcomm's Snapdragon Summit marked its first event in China, emphasizing the importance of AI and connectivity in driving technological advancements and industry collaboration [5] - Philips has established a comprehensive manufacturing base in Suzhou, underscoring China's significance as a key hub for global innovation and manufacturing [5] Group 4 - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost domestic consumption, which is expected to unlock significant potential in the service sector, creating a more favorable environment for foreign enterprises [6][7] - L'Oréal's investment in a local skincare brand reflects confidence in China's market, with the company emphasizing the importance of long-term commitment to meet consumer expectations [6] - Panasonic's global vice president noted that China's policies to expand market access and enhance domestic demand will create a more transparent and predictable business environment for foreign companies [7]

万事达卡经济研究所研究报告指出，2026年中国消费将呈现出显著的强化趋势，"新消费"品类——如美 容健康、新兴生活方式以及由"粉丝经济"驱动的消费热潮有望持续扩容。特别是消费者从追求"单纯低 价"转向拥抱"精明消费"的变革趋势，正重塑中国零售业与数字渠道的生态。 德意志银行中国区首席经济学家熊奕表示，2026年消费将继续成为中国经济增长的主引擎，预计将为 GDP贡献2.8个百分点，商品消费或将录得温和增长，服务消费亦将在政策支持下持续改善。 中新社上海1月1日电 (记者 姜煜)新年伊始，多家外资机构展望2026年中国经济发展前景时不约而同指 出：消费仍是主引擎，其在中国GDP中的占比将继续提升。 据威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师郁嘉言分析，2025年，中国消费的复苏得益于强有力的财政支持，一个可 喜的迹象是，消费结构正在由商品转向服务，消费者更愿意把钱花在休闲旅游、外出就餐、个人兴趣爱 好及生活方式等体验和享受型消费方面。与此同时，部分细分领域出现高端化趋势，消费者更青睐产品 的设计与品质，而非价格。这些都是在消费信心回升以及商品供给充裕背景下出现的新型消费升级形 态。 "2026年，消费在中国GDP中的占比将继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - KPMG's report predicts that Ireland's GDP will grow by 3% in 2026, supported by strong demand, employment, and government strategic investments [1] Economic Growth - Adjusted domestic demand (MDD) is expected to grow by 2.5% for the year, excluding the distortion effects of multinational companies [1] - Export growth is anticipated to continue, primarily driven by the pharmaceutical sector [1] Challenges - The report highlights ongoing challenges such as the housing crisis in Dublin and transportation delays, which pose threats to the economy [1] - Recent government initiatives, including a €103 billion national development plan and a €19 billion capital budget for 2026, may have positive impacts, but delays or cost overruns could affect these measures [1] Employment Outlook - Employment growth is expected to remain positive, but the growth rate will slow to 1.5% [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to stabilize around 5% [1]

Core Insights - The release of the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)" aims to attract and utilize foreign investment in China, enhancing confidence among foreign enterprises [2][3][4] Group 1: Investment Trends - Foreign investment in China is showing a trend of quality improvement and stable volume, with a shift towards high-tech industries and R&D centers [3][5] - A report by KPMG indicates that 75% of multinational companies operating in China plan to maintain or increase their investments by 2025 [3] - From January to November 2025, 61,207 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, marking a 16.9% year-on-year increase [4] Group 2: Sector Focus - High-tech industries, including e-commerce services, medical equipment manufacturing, and aerospace manufacturing, have seen significant foreign investment growth, with increases of 127%, 46.5%, and 41.9% respectively [4] - Foreign enterprises are increasingly focusing on localization, with 83% of companies planning to localize key parts of their operations in China [3] Group 3: Economic Environment - China's economic stability and growth potential are attracting foreign investors, with international organizations raising China's economic growth forecasts for 2025 [6][7] - China is viewed as a source of certainty in an uncertain global economic landscape, with a welcoming attitude towards foreign investment [8][9] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The 14th Five-Year Plan suggests significant opportunities for foreign enterprises in sectors such as finance, healthcare, artificial intelligence, and high-end manufacturing [11][12] - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and innovation-driven development will provide foreign enterprises with broader high-quality development space in various sectors [11][12][13]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, reflecting changes in global investor attitudes towards dollar assets and the impact of US monetary policy [1][5][7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the dollar's share in global reserves has declined, dropping from 57.79% to 56.32% by the second quarter of 2025, marking a 30-year low [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and other global central banks are shifting towards independent monetary policies, leading to a diversified international monetary system [2][35] Group 2 - The euro has rebounded strongly, increasing by 13.5% over the year, driven by the weakening dollar and capital inflows [12][13] - The British pound has shown a "low open, high rise" trend, reaching a peak of 1.3743 against the dollar in July, supported by a stable UK economy and hawkish Bank of England policies [16][17] - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-to-date, but facing depreciation pressures due to domestic political changes and fiscal risks [20][22][24] Group 3 - Resource currencies like the Australian dollar and Brazilian real have benefited from the weaker dollar, as it makes commodities cheaper for other currencies, boosting demand and export revenues [29][30] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has risen over 6%, marking its best annual performance since 2017, with the Brazilian real gaining over 10% [31] - The weakening dollar has provided a significant boost to emerging market equities, while US stocks have remained strong, driven by AI themes despite concerns over US policies [33][34] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, as it seeks to balance inflation control with employment stability [35][36] - The Bank of Japan has raised rates twice in 2025, marking a cautious approach amidst ongoing economic challenges, while the ECB has paused its rate cuts after a series of reductions earlier in the year [38][42] - The divergence in monetary policy paths among major central banks is expected to continue, with the Fed likely to cut rates once more in 2026, while the ECB may consider rate hikes depending on economic conditions [45][49]

与此同时，特朗普关祱政策对物价的影响预计将在 2026 年上半年达到峰值。美联储政策制定者愈发认 为，此后物价压力将逐步缓解。若事实果真如此，薪资增长跑赢通胀的空间将进一步扩大，从而进一步 改善家庭财务状况。 得益于唐纳德・特朗普总统的减税政策、关祱相关不确定性减弱、人工智能热潮持续推进以及美联储年 末开启的降息周期，经历了 2025 年跌宕起伏的美国经济，有望在 2026 年迎来更强劲的增长。 特朗普签署的《宏伟美好法案》还为企业提供了多项税收抵免与优惠政策，其中包括允许企业对投资相 关支出全额税前扣除。这一政策有望推动企业资本支出，覆盖范围将突破数据中心及其他人工智能相关 领域。 经济学家指出，经济增速回升的最大驱动力之一，是退税金额增加与薪资预扣税额减少，这两项利好预 计将提振作为美国经济支柱的消费支出。 毕马威首席经济学家黛安・斯旺克表示："单是财政刺激这一项，就有望为 2026 年一季度国内生产总值 （GDP）增速贡献 0.5 个百分点甚至更多。" 此外，2025 年经济增长的核心引擎 —— 人工智能基础设施相关的企业支出，预计将延续增长态势。亚 马逊、谷歌母公司字母表等科技巨头均已承诺未来将加大相 ...

Core Insights - Vietnam is emerging as a hotspot for renewable energy investment, but the unfamiliar policy environment and complex approval processes pose significant challenges for ambitious investors [1] Group 1: Policy Navigation - A comprehensive understanding of Vietnam's evolving foreign investment policies, tax incentives, and industry entry conditions is crucial for project decision-making [3] - KPMG provides a clear policy compliance roadmap and feasibility analysis to establish a solid foundation for project decisions [3] Group 2: Licensing Support - KPMG assists clients in preparing and advancing key licensing application documents and processes, effectively managing compliance risks and accelerating project legality [4] Group 3: Investment Structure Optimization - KPMG designs investment structures tailored to clients' global strategies, balancing tax efficiency, operational flexibility, and risk isolation to enhance overall investment effectiveness [5] Group 4: Final Outcomes - KPMG successfully helped clients efficiently complete project development and obtain operational licenses, significantly improving tax compliance levels and operational certainty [6] - The firm established a solid and reliable financial and tax support system for long-term development in Vietnam and Southeast Asia [6]