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全球十五大铜矿企业三季报汇总:非中资海外12家矿企前三季度产量下滑,全球未来新增项目仍然较少
Huaxin Securities· 2025-12-17 07:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the copper industry [10]. Core Insights - The production of major copper-producing countries, Chile and Peru, has shown mixed results, with Chile's production slightly increasing and Peru's production recovering after a decline in 2024 [4][18]. - The overall production from twelve overseas copper mining companies has decreased, with significant declines noted in Freeport and Glencore due to operational disruptions [5][66]. - Future new or expanded copper mining projects are limited, indicating a potential supply constraint in the coming years [8][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Production from Major Producing Countries - Chile's copper production for January to September 2025 reached 3.972 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4][18]. - Peru's copper production during the same period was 2.048 million metric tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [4][18]. - The increase in Chile's production is primarily attributed to the Escondida project, while Peru's growth is driven by Las Bambas and Toromocho projects [4][18]. 2. Overseas Copper Mining Companies' Production - The total copper production from fifteen major copper mining companies in the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.3231 million metric tons, a slight increase of 0.36% year-on-year [5][43]. - Excluding three Chinese companies, the twelve overseas companies reported a total production of 7.5641 million metric tons, a decrease of 2.42% year-on-year [5][43]. - Freeport and Glencore experienced significant production declines of 13.61% and 17.26%, respectively, due to operational issues [5][66]. 3. Future Project Developments - There are few new or expanded copper mining projects anticipated, with notable projects like Codelco's Rajo Inca and First Quantum's Kansanshi expansion expected to contribute limited additional supply [8][9]. - Long-term projects such as Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi are in ramp-up phases, with expected production increases by 2028 [9].
现货成交相对清淡,铜价维持震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: Short Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report The December Fed FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and copper prices remained strong. The closing out of short hedging positions at the end of the year also pushed copper prices higher. However, these factors will gradually fade next week, so the continuous sharp rise of copper prices may slow down. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton and closed at 91,920 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 92,210 yuan/ton and closed at 91,830 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a discount of 180 - 70 yuan/ton to the next - month 2601 contract, with an average discount of 125 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 91,320 - 92,030 yuan/ton. Sellers were eager to sell, but buyers were reluctant to buy, leading to a continuous decline in spot premiums and light trading. After the 2512 contract was settled, spot is expected to remain at a large discount [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In November, the US added 64,000 non - farm payrolls, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The average hourly wage increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest since May 2021. The data strengthened the Fed's loose monetary policy path [3]. - **Economic Indicators**: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all 6 - month lows [3]. - **Mine End**: Exploration company Kavango Resources started evaluating strategic options for its Kalahari copper belt interests in Botswana, including potential joint - venture partners. The review is in the early stage, and the outcome is uncertain. The company's copper assets in Botswana cover about 6,200 square kilometers, and early exploration results are encouraging [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 9.7% year - on - year to 1.103 million tons, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 2.5% month - on - month to 427,000 tons due to the narrowing price difference. The cumulative import of copper ore concentrates increased by 8% year - on - year to 27.614 million tons. Codelco's 2026 refined copper annual contract premium soared by 275% compared to 2025, driving spot purchases to non - US regions, and LME copper inventories dropped to a record low of 165,800 tons [5]. - **Consumption**: In November 2025, China's copper industry prosperity index was 39.7, down 2.0 points from the previous month, remaining in the "normal" range. The leading index was 73.4, down 2.1 points, and the coincident index was 74.3, down 3.6 points [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 166,600 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons. On December 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 164,500 tons, up 1,500 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: Short put [7].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20251217
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 01:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Unemployment is rising [2] - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2] - Copper: The weakening dollar supports prices [2] - Zinc: Domestic and overseas markets are in resonance [2] - Lead: Lacking price drivers and experiencing price fluctuations [2] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2] - Aluminum: Trading sideways [2] - Alumina: Slightly rebounding [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Showing a strong upward momentum [2] - Palladium: Continuously breaking through resistance levels and approaching previous highs [2] - Nickel: The structural surplus is changing, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [2] - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are fluctuating at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of various gold futures and spot products showed fluctuations. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 971.42, with a daily decline of 1.19%. Trading volume decreased, and inventory changes were relatively small [4] - **News**: US non - farm payrolls in October had the largest decline in five years, recovered in November but remained weak overall, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8] Silver - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, silver prices fluctuated, trading volume decreased, and inventory changes were significant in some cases. For example, the Shanghai Silver 2602 closing price was 14666, with a daily decline of 0.85% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai and London copper futures declined. Trading volume and open interest decreased. Inventory changes were mixed, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10] - **News**: In November, US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high. In October, Codelco's copper production in Chile decreased by 14.3% year - on - year, while Peru's copper production increased by 4.8% [10][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai and London zinc futures declined. Trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot premiums and discounts, inventory, and other indicators also changed [13] - **News**: US retail sales in October were flat overall, but core indicators strongly supported Q4 growth. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI contracted further [14] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [15] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai and London lead futures declined. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and inventory and price spreads changed [16] - **News**: Similar to copper, US non - farm payrolls and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI had a certain impact [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [17] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai and London tin futures declined. Trading volume decreased, and inventory and price spreads changed [19] - **News**: Similar to gold, including US non - farm payrolls and other macro - news [20] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [21] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum prices were trading sideways, alumina prices slightly rebounded, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. Various futures and spot indicators such as closing prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads changed [22] - **News**: China plans to promote investment and consumption growth next year, and the real estate supply side will control increments and revitalize stocks. The US labor market is cooling [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend for all three [23] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamentals**: Platinum and palladium prices rose, trading volume and open interest changed, and ETF holdings and price spreads also changed [26] - **News**: US non - farm payrolls, ADP employment reports, and news related to the Fed chair candidate and international trade policies [29] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend for both [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel and stainless steel prices declined. Various industry indicators such as trading volume, open interest, product prices, and spreads changed [30] - **News**: Indonesian nickel mines have been affected by regulatory actions, China has adjusted import subsidies, and the US may impose additional tariffs on China. Also, some US Fed officials have made dovish statements, and China will implement export license management for some steel products [30][33] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [34]
铜:外强内弱,价格震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-16 02:19
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal conditions, with prices fluctuating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 92,400, with a daily decline of 1.79%, and the night - session closing price was 92,410, with a night - session increase of 0.01%. The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,686, with a daily increase of 1.16% [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 560,196, an increase of 144,589 from the previous day, and the open interest was 630,265, a decrease of 16,648 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 23,181, a decrease of 18,366 from the previous day, and the open interest was 351,000, an increase of 2,912 from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai copper futures inventory was 42,226, an increase of 9,663 from the previous day, and the LME copper inventory was 165,875, a decrease of 25 from the previous day. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 39.43%, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - The LME copper premium and discount, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and other spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News Macroeconomic News - China released its November economic data. Industrial production maintained resilience, high - tech manufacturing continued to support, consumer spending dropped to the lowest point of the year on a monthly basis, and fixed - asset investment and real estate were under pressure. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in November showed a general decline month - on - month and an expanded year - on - year decline [1]. - Before the release of the US non - farm payrolls report, market sentiment was cautious, and the sell - off of AI concept stocks continued, dragging down technology stocks and the overall US stock market [1]. Industry News - Chile's copper export value in November was 4.282 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.57% [1]. - In October, the copper output of Chile's state - owned miner Codelco decreased by 14.3% year - on - year to 111,000 tons [3]. - From this year to 2034, Chile's mining investment is expected to reach 104.549 billion US dollars, higher than the previous forecast of about 83 billion US dollars by 2033 [3]. - Korea Zinc plans to invest 7.4 billion US dollars in the United States to build a smelter for producing key metals and minerals [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-12-15 19:52
Chileans on Sunday picked right-winger Jose Antonio Kast to head the country. Now, the mining industry is focused on who he will choose to lead state copper giant Codelco. https://t.co/WqjlwDhwik ...
铜:长期驱动逻辑仍存,价格回落有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The long - term driving logic for copper still exists, and the price decline is limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 94,080 with a daily increase of 2.03%, and the night - session closing price was 91,550 with a decline of 2.69%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,553 with a decline of 2.37%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai copper index and LME copper 3M electronic disk both increased compared to the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 1,102 to 32,563, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 50 to 165,900. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 39.78% with a decline of 0.40% [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper increased by 500 to 82,900. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 20, a decrease of 25 compared to the previous day. The near - month contract - to - consecutive - first - contract spread was - 60, a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The People's Bank of China will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Trump prefers to let Warsh or Hassett serve as the Fed chair and hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year [1] - **Industry News**: China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November were 252.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 2.7614 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The US is negotiating with Central African countries to provide over $1 billion for two key mineral and railway projects. Chile's copper export value in November was $4.282 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.57%. In October, the copper production of Chile's state - owned miner Codelco decreased by 14.3% year - on - year to 111,000 tons. The mining investment in Chile from this year to 2034 is expected to reach $104.549 billion, higher than the previous forecast [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251215
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 01:59
2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金:如期降息 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:高位调整 | 3 | | 铜:长期驱动逻辑仍存,价格回落有限 | 5 | | 锌:国内持续去库 | 7 | | 铅:库存减少,支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡:供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝:宏观扰动增加 | 12 | | 氧化铝:持续关注产能减产 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金:高位震荡 | 12 | | 铂:突破前高开启补涨 | 14 | | 钯:ETF增持明显,有望冲击前高 | 14 | | 镍:过剩结构性转向,关注印尼政策风险 | 16 | | 不锈钢:供需双弱运行,钢价低位震荡 | 16 | | 碳酸锂:去库延续但现货成交疲软,区间震荡延续 | 18 | | 工业硅:关注新疆环保进度 | 20 | | 多晶硅:盘面高位震荡 | 20 | | 铁矿石:下游需求空间有限,估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢:市场讯息扰动,低位震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板:市场讯息扰动,低位震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁:主产区工厂检修,价格走势坚挺 | 25 | | 锰硅:港口矿报价坚挺,盘 ...
铜高位延续强势,区域性库存紧张提供下方支撑
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 07:57
铜高位延续强势,区域性库存紧张提供下方支撑 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 库存端 :库存整体小幅累积,12月11日LME库存增至31461吨,较前一日上 升8.74%;SHFE库存增至165850吨,上升0.53%;COMEX库存12月10日增至 445166短吨,但交易所库存仍处相对低位,基本面提供支撑。 价格走势判断 未来1-2周铜期货价格预计高位宽幅震荡。供给端Codelco产量下降加剧供 应紧张,但新矿项目长期缓解压力;需求端储能增长部分抵消消费疲软, 但地产拖累和下游观望抑制上行空间;宏观情绪波动下,基本面低库存支 撑限制回调幅度。铜价区间预计在11400-11700美元/吨。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 主力合约与基差 :12月11日SHFE主力合约价格小幅走高至92550元/吨,较 前一日上涨670元/吨(+0.73%);LME价格12月10日报11559.5美元/吨。基 差方面,现货升水铜12月11日回落至45元/吨,较前一日下降35元/吨,平 水铜和湿法 ...
沪铜主力01合约最高突破94000元关口 再创新高
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-12 06:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper futures have strengthened, with the main contract surpassing the 94,000 mark, reaching a new high [1] - Codelco's copper production dropped to 111,000 tons in October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [2] - The copper industry in Shandong aims to exceed 200 billion yuan in output value by 2027, promoting related industries to surpass 1 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut and Powell's comments on labor market risks are expected to support copper prices due to a weaker dollar [4] - Despite a recent technical correction in copper prices due to large long positions being liquidated, the fundamental supply shortage and structural imbalance in global copper inventories support a price floor [4] - The tightening supply of copper concentrate and low domestic inventories are expected to keep copper prices strong in the short term [4]
广发早知道:汇总版-20251212
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 01:21
Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - **Tin**: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - **Alumina**: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - **Nickel**: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - **Coke**: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - **Pigs**: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - **Sugar**: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - **Jujubes**: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - **Apples**: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - **PTA**: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - **PP**: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - **PVC**: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - **Natural Rubber**: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].