Fixed Income Research - The net financing amount is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated. The overall change in the issuance guidance rates published by the trading association has mostly decreased by 5 to 1 basis points. In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with only medium-term notes seeing a decrease in issuance amount, while other varieties saw increases. The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes showing a decrease, while other varieties saw increases. Corporate bonds, directional tools had negative net financing, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds had positive net financing [2][3]. - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with transaction amounts for all varieties declining. The yield on credit bonds remained low and fluctuated, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yield. The credit spread for most varieties narrowed month-on-month, with the varieties that widened mainly concentrated in the 7-year term. Most varieties' spreads are at historical lows. From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will continue to drive the recovery of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable due to various factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds remain insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible [3]. Fund Research - In January, the market for actively managed equity funds saw a significant increase in issuance, with a total of 88 new funds issued, amounting to 91.48 billion yuan. The issuance of actively managed equity funds and passive equity funds was 41.70 billion units and 19.62 billion units, respectively, with a significant increase in the issuance of actively managed equity funds. Overall, the issuance market for equity funds has warmed up significantly, especially for actively managed equity funds [6][7]. - The performance of equity markets was outstanding in January, with all types of funds showing varying degrees of increase. The average increase for commodity funds was the largest at 17.92%. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the mid-cap balanced style had the largest increase at 8.99%, while the large-cap value style had the smallest increase at approximately 4.22% [8]. Industry Research - The valuation repair of the real estate chain can continue, with positive signals from the government regarding real estate policies. The market is transitioning from a large-scale expansion phase to a focus on quality improvement. The goal is to actively construct a new development model for real estate, emphasizing both short-term and long-term strategies. The sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations, and investors with a higher risk appetite may consider early positioning, especially in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [4][10]. - In the paper industry, several leading companies have announced price increases for white cardboard and corrugated paper, with expected price hikes of 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard and 30-50 yuan/ton for corrugated paper. The upcoming annual maintenance period for paper companies will disrupt supply, while the approaching Spring Festival will boost packaging demand from e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors, supporting price increases [12]. - In the metals industry, the steel sector is expected to continue a weak performance due to the Spring Festival holiday, with production and demand both shrinking. The copper market is also anticipated to see inventory accumulation due to reduced production activities during the holiday, with a focus on post-holiday demand verification [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry in China [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective on the market, suggesting that despite short-term volatility in precious metals, the long-term bull market remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues [7][12] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked material benefiting from the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with expectations for price increases due to supply tightness [7][13] - The copper sector is viewed positively, with the gold-to-copper ratio reaching historical highs, indicating potential for copper price increases amid supply constraints [7][14] - For precious metals, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before increasing positions, as significant price fluctuations have been observed recently [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the dynamics of precious metals, noting significant price drops in gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce and silver prices at $85 per ounce during a recent week [7][12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by infrastructure projects in developing regions, with a noted decrease in zinc smelting fees indicating supply constraints [7][13] - The copper market is projected to maintain upward momentum due to a high gold-to-copper ratio and ongoing supply challenges from major mining companies [7][14] - The report suggests a cautious approach to precious metals, recommending that investors wait for market stabilization before making new investments [7][15] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with a slight decrease in iron output and weakening demand for rebar [16][21] - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory at 891 thousand tons, reflecting a 2.56% weekly increase [23] - Steel prices have generally declined, with the overall steel price index down by 0.20%, and specific products like cold-rolled steel experiencing a 0.44% decrease [35][36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with December 2025 production reaching 1.5858 million units, a 9.02% increase year-on-year [43] - Lithium prices have shown a notable decline, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.62% decrease [48][49]

客户端 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月28日，小摩增持洛阳钼业（03993）806.0604万股，每股作价23.8255港 元，总金额约为1.92亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2.8亿股，最新持股比例为7.1%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月28日，小摩增持洛阳钼业（03993）806.0604万股，每股作价23.8255港 元，总金额约为1.92亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2.8亿股，最新持股比例为7.1%。 ...

今日提示 ·国务院新闻办公室将于2月4日上午10时举行新闻发布会，介绍锚定农业农村现代化、扎实推进乡村全 面振兴有关情况。 ·中证指数有限公司调整中证1000指数样本，2月4日收市后生效。 ·2月4日北京时间凌晨，思科全球直播2026人工智能大会。 ·智元机器人正式宣布，将于2月8日20:00全球直播全球首个大型机器人晚会《机器人奇妙夜》。 上证精选 ·2月3日，央行公布2026年1月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。1月，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放 7000亿元，常备借贷便利（SLF）净投放-79亿元，其他结构性货币政策工具净投放641亿元。公开市场 业务方面，1月，公开市场国债买卖净投放1000亿元，7天期逆回购净投放1678亿元，中央国库现金管理 净投放-600亿元，其他期限逆回购净投放1000亿元。 ·广期所公告，自2026年2月5日结算时起，铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为20%，交易保证金标准 调整为22%。如遇上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准与现行执行的涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准不 同时，则按两者中幅度大、标准高的执行。 上证聚焦 ○中央一号文件发布提出拓展无人机物联网应用 中央一号文件《中共 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth and transformation of China's copper smelting industry, emphasizing the shift towards green and intelligent manufacturing in response to global trends and domestic demands [2][6]. - China's refined copper production is projected to reach 13.644 million tons in 2024, marking a 5.1% increase from 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% observed in the first seven months of 2025 [1][2]. - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing a continuous trade deficit, with the total import and export value of related products reaching 811.856 billion yuan in 2024, and the trade deficit expanding by 114.513 billion yuan [6][7]. Group 2 - The average import price of copper smelting-related products has shown an upward trend from 2019 to July 2025, with significant increases during the 2020-2021 period due to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [8]. - China's position as a major consumer in the global refined copper market is expected to strengthen, with the country's share of global refined copper production and sales anticipated to increase further [2].

文：任泽平团队 摘要 目录 本报告通过复盘 1980-2024 年全球货币数据与资产回报，揭示货币超发对资产的影响，给出抵 御通胀的财富指南。 全球货币超发是普遍现象。 从 1980 年到 2024 年，全球广义货币占 GDP 的比重上升了 78 个 点到 141% ，多数经济体广义货币年均增速高于其名义 GDP 增速。 货币超发分三种类型： 一是以巴西、阿根廷、土耳其为代表的 通胀失控型 ，财政赤字货币化与 产业空心化，超发货币直接冲击商品市场，引发恶性通胀与本币信用崩塌；二是以美英为代表的 资 产价格膨胀型 ，超发货币被发达的资本市场吸纳，表现为资产价格显著膨胀、消费通胀却保持温 和；三是以中国、日本及部分东亚经济体为代表的 结构性沉淀型 ，在间接融资主导的体系下，大量 资金以存款和债务形式沉淀于银行体系或投向基建、地产等领域。 中国货币流向的转变：从地产老基建到资本市场新质生产力。 中国货币发行控制属于比较好 的， 表现为 M2/GDP 持续抬升与温和通胀。过去二十年，中国依靠房地产、基建的信用循环，货币 沉淀为实体资产、而非流向消费端。随着地产长周期见顶，传统蓄水池功能失效。货币流向发生根 本性转折， ...

格隆汇2月3日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月28日，洛阳钼业(03993.HK)获JPMorgan Chase & Co.以每股均价23.8255港元增持好仓806.06万 股，涉资约1.92亿港元。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日期相 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股份數目 | 三大 | | | (請參閱 | 有投票權股(日/月/年) 精 | | | | | | | 出 | 份自分比 | | . CS20260202E00380 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1101(L) | 8,060,604(L) | HKD 23.8255 | 279.500.219(L) | 7.10(L)28/01/2026 | | | | | | | 68.109.744(S) | 1.73(S) | | | | | | | 126.957.814(P) | 3.22(P) | 增持后，JP ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold and silver prices was driven by speculative buying, leading to record highs, with gold reaching $5,598 and silver hitting $117 per ounce in January 2026 [1][2] - Following the peak, there was a dramatic decline, with silver dropping 26% in a single day and gold falling 9%, marking the worst single-day performance in over a decade [2][4] - The decline in the metals market was exacerbated by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations and profit-taking by investors [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, particularly the nomination of Kevin Warsh, shifted market expectations from easing to tightening, leading to a stronger dollar and negatively impacting commodity prices [4][5] - The market experienced a "technical adjustment" due to excessive long positions and increased margin requirements from exchanges, which raised costs for short-term speculative trading [5][6] - The volatility in precious metals, especially gold, triggered a broader sell-off in the entire metals sector, affecting industrial and minor metals as well [6][9] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the recent downturn may not signify the end of the bull market for precious metals, with expectations of a rebound driven by ongoing central bank purchases and investor demand [7][8] - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential buying opportunities identified in the $4,800 to $4,900 range for gold, while copper and aluminum markets are expected to face supply-demand challenges [8][9] - Despite the recent panic, the long-term drivers for the metals sector remain intact, indicating that the current market conditions may present selective investment opportunities rather than widespread undervaluation [9]

或由于现货黄金重回4900美元，完全收复昨日跌幅，今日（2月3日）有色ETF华宝（159876）强势反 弹，场内价格最高飙涨超6.7%，最终收涨6.4%，一举收复20日均线。 成份股方面，湖南黄金涨停，中稀有色涨超8%，涨幅居前。权重股方面，紫金矿业、北方稀土涨超 6%，洛阳钼业涨逾4%，中国铝业涨超3%。 有色金属为何能够强势反弹？或可从两方面进行拆解： 1、市场"误判"新美联储主席，降息是获提名前提 高盛指出，沃什愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件，并且不认为沃什会推动资产负债表大幅缩减， 因美联储内部对"充足准备金"框架有广泛支持。沃什可能不会真正推动重启量化紧缩，因为这对风险资 产的破坏性太大。* 2、地缘政治扰动，"战略自主"重要性凸显 巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是"扩张性财政+关税通胀"。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约 束，投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧因政策不确定性而加剧。德意志银行指出，继俄罗斯储备被冻结后， 全球央行"战略自主"需求凸显。黄金的储备地位从"收益驱动"转向"生存驱动"*。 黄金牛市还在吗？近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为"技术性洗盘"，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000 美 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rapid recovery on February 3, with over 4,800 stocks rising and the three major indices rebounding collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29% to 4,067.74 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86%. The total market turnover was 2.57 trillion yuan, compared to 2.61 trillion yuan the previous day [1]. Sector Performance - The precious metals market saw a strong rebound, with the Color ETF (159876) recovering 6.4% and the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 3.97%. Spot gold regained its previous day's losses, surpassing $4,900 per ounce, with multiple foreign institutions asserting that the logic behind the gold bull market remains intact [2][5]. - The military and aerospace sectors surged following the announcement of SpaceX's merger with xAI, with the Military ETF (512810) increasing by 4.75% and the General Aviation ETF (159231) rising by 3.51%. Both ETFs have over 65% exposure to commercial aerospace [3][11]. Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector experienced a broad-based rally, with the Chemical ETF (516020) reaching a peak increase of 4.3% during the day. Key stocks in the sector, such as Hongda Co. and Cangge Mining, saw significant gains, with some stocks rising over 9% [9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in the chemical sector are driven by a combination of supply-demand mismatches, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades. The sector is expected to maintain high profitability for the next 3-5 years [7][9]. Military Sector Developments - The military sector saw a significant influx of capital, with net purchases exceeding 171 billion yuan in defense and military stocks, ranking second among 31 primary industries. The Military ETF (512810) ended a four-day decline with a strong performance, with all 80 constituent stocks rising [11][12]. - The merger of SpaceX and xAI is anticipated to enhance the valuation of domestic military enterprises involved in satellite communication and related technologies, as the market expects accelerated advancements in these areas [14]. Gold Market Analysis - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and UBS maintain a bullish outlook on gold, with predictions of prices reaching $6,000 and $4,500 as a strong support level, respectively. The demand from Chinese buyers is noted to be significantly high, potentially tripling from the previous year [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - Companies and analysts recommend maintaining a balanced exposure to the color metal sector, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 10-20% to capitalize on potential gains while mitigating risks [7]. - The chemical sector is also highlighted as a promising investment opportunity, with a focus on leading companies and those benefiting from price increases due to recent policy changes [9].