Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The June stock recommendations from 42 brokerage firms show a significant increase in the number of recommended stocks, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector returning to the top of the industry recommendation rankings after three years, indicating a renewed market interest in cyclical industries [1][3]. Stock Recommendations - A total of 332 stocks received 457 recommendations, with 42 stocks from the ChiNext gaining 53 recommendations, 45 stocks from the STAR Market receiving 59 recommendations, and 43 Hong Kong stocks getting 62 recommendations, marking an increase of 6 and 7 stocks respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - Six stocks received recommendations from five brokerage firms: China Merchants Bank, Yara International, Smoore International, SF Holding, Qingdao Beer, and Haida Group [1]. - Six stocks received recommendations from four brokerage firms: Zijin Mining, China Mobile, Zhenhua Heavy Industries, Tencent Holdings, Hangzhou Bank, and Dongpeng Beverage [1]. Industry Rankings - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved a recommendation rate of 10.2%, reclaiming the top position, while the electronics sector fell to second place with a recommendation rate of 9.3% [3]. - The food and beverage sector ranked third with a recommendation rate of 6.58%, and the machinery equipment sector ranked fourth with a rate of 6.35% [3]. - The coal industry saw a significant increase in recommendation rate by 59.6%, while the transportation sector increased by 52.1%, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3]. Declining Industry Interest - The retail trade sector experienced a notable decline in recommendation rate by 43.17%, attributed to renewed trade tensions and previous excessive price increases [4]. - The defense and military industry saw a decrease of 34.77%, mainly due to the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation [4]. - The automotive sector's recommendation rate dropped by 30.99%, reflecting concerns over industry competition [4]. Performance of Brokerage Recommendations - In May, 30 out of 45 brokerage firms reported positive returns, with the top performers being Guoyuan Securities (6.28%) and Caitong Securities (5.93%) [5][6]. - As of May 30, 36 out of 45 brokerage firms had positive returns for the year, with 16 firms achieving returns close to or exceeding 10% [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that June will see continued improvement in returns and win rates, with a focus on large-cap growth stocks, although the market is expected to remain volatile [7]. - The market sentiment has been affected by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and slow progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, which are key factors influencing market risk appetite [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on new consumption sectors, particularly in pet products, AI glasses, and personal care, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in these areas [5][13][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new consumption sectors, including the pet products market, AI glasses, and personal care, with specific companies recommended for investment [5][13][19]. - It emphasizes the resilience of domestic brands in the personal care sector, driven by the rise of local products and consumer demand [13][14]. - The report notes the expected stabilization of paper prices due to recent price increase notices and supply adjustments, suggesting a potential recovery in the paper industry [24][25]. - The housing market is projected to gradually stabilize, supported by government policies aimed at promoting healthy development, which is expected to positively impact the home furnishings sector [26][27][28]. Summary by Sections New Consumption Sectors - The report identifies key players in the pet products sector, such as Tianyuan Pet, Yiyi Co., Yuanfei Pet, and Chaoyun Group, highlighting their strategic acquisitions and market positions [5][6][7][8]. - In the AI glasses segment, companies like Kangnait Optical, Mingyue Lens, and Boshi Glasses are noted for their potential benefits from new product launches and technological advancements [10][12]. - The personal care sector is characterized by strong domestic brands like Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Dengkang Oral Care, which are expected to thrive amid rising consumer preferences for local products [13][14]. Paper Industry - The report mentions that Arauco has announced price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, indicating a potential stabilization in paper prices [24]. - It also discusses the long-term supply-demand improvements expected in the paper industry, recommending companies with integrated operations and strong management, such as Sun Paper [25]. Housing and Home Furnishings - The report outlines government initiatives to support the real estate market, which are anticipated to enhance the valuation of home furnishing companies like Sophia and Oppein [26][27]. - It highlights the positive impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policies on the home furnishings sector, with significant sales growth reported in related products [28].

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

作为券商月度策略的精华，券商每月金股受到市场关注。 回望5月，最牛金股当月涨幅高达52%。刚刚出炉的6月金股中，电子、医药生物、汽车、食品饮料等板块的金 股数量居前，港股标的关注度显著抬升。 展望6月，不少券商认为，当前弱美元趋势下，人民币资产有望受益，A股中长期有望震荡上行。 医药板块金股5月收益率领先 从5月金股表现来看，由长城证券推荐的药师帮（9885.HK）以52%的月涨幅排名第一；由华西证券推荐的曼 卡龙（300945.SZ）、由天风证券推荐的潮宏基（002345.SZ）紧随其后，分居第二、第三，月涨幅均超45%。 展望6月行情，不少券商认为，当前弱美元趋势下，人民币资产有望受益，A股中长期有望震荡上行。 中国银河证券策略首席蔡芳媛认为，6月A股市场将大概率震荡上行，建议把握波动中的确定性，关注消费、 科技、红利三条主线。随着经济复苏的持续叠加国内政策保持积极态势，并且监管层多次发声表达对A股市场 的呵护，人民币资产作为美国信用的一种对冲可能受益，多因素共振将持续助力市场风险偏好提升。 东吴证券认为，新一轮"东升西落"交易可能很快来临。美元周期是"东升西落"交易的关键，从历史经验看，在 全球流动性宽 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the **Chinese economy**, **gold and jewelry industry**, **new consumption sectors**, **traditional consumption sectors**, **technology sector**, and **pharmaceutical industry**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Environment**: The U.S. tariff policy remains unresolved, leading to increased pressure on Chinese exports and weakened production, investment, and consumption willingness among enterprises. Employment data shows negative growth, further impacting liquidity [1][2][4]. 2. **Industrial Profit Decline**: Domestic industrial profits are at their lowest since 2020, with PMI data hitting new lows, indicating persistent deflationary pressures. Actual financing costs for enterprises have risen, leading to decreased production willingness [1][4]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: A defensive investment strategy is recommended, focusing on trading U.S. recession through gold and gold stocks for certain returns, and increasing positions in growth dividends and innovative pharmaceuticals as domestic fiscal policies strengthen [1][5]. 4. **New Consumption Opportunities**: New consumption sectors such as the silver economy, tourism, pet economy, smart home, animation, and personal care are gaining traction, supported by fiscal stimulus and less correlation with economic cycles [1][6]. 5. **Traditional Consumption Stability**: Traditional sectors like education, dairy, maternal and infant consumption, hospitality, tourism, and medical beauty show stable cash flows and increasing ROE, with dividends expected to rise [1][8]. 6. **Technology Sector Focus**: Key areas in the technology sector include optical chips, smart speakers, new display materials, AI wearable devices, autonomous driving technology, GPUs, and radar. Companies with rising volume and price, along with high valuation tolerance, are of particular interest [3][9]. 7. **Gold and Jewelry Market Outlook**: The gold and jewelry industry is expected to perform well in 2025, with high gold prices increasing consumer acceptance. Companies like Chao Hong Ji are expanding overseas and innovating product lines to enhance consumer demand [15][16]. 8. **Pharmaceutical Sector Insights**: Innovative pharmaceutical companies are highlighted as key investment targets, with a focus on large pharmaceutical firms that are currently undervalued. Companies like Huadong Medicine and Sanofi are noted for their strong growth potential [12][14]. 9. **Gold Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The gold supply is expected to decline in 2025 due to reduced copper-associated gold mining, while demand remains strong, particularly from gold ETFs and central bank purchases [20]. 10. **Small Metals Market Performance**: The small metals market, especially rare earths and antimony, is performing well due to improved pricing and inventory replenishment driven by export controls [21]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is significantly impacting market sentiment and fundamentals, particularly as U.S.-China relations remain tense [2]. 2. **Long-term Growth Potential**: Despite short-term volatility, companies with solid fundamentals, such as those in the insurance and banking sectors, are expected to show strong long-term growth potential [27][28]. 3. **Investment Timing**: Investors are advised to consider buying during short-term adjustments in new consumption sectors to capture long-term value [7][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.18%, down 41 points, closing at 23,241 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.58% [1] - Early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 111.4 billion [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - Pharmaceutical stocks showed strength in early trading, driven by significant data expected to be released at the ASCO conference, enhancing the industry's outlook for innovative drugs [1] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) rose by 6%, Lepu Biopharma-B (02157) increased by 8%, King’s Ray Biotech (01548) gained 5%, and WuXi AppTec (02268) also saw a 5% rise [1] - Heyu-B (02256) surged over 2% after receiving CDE approval for the breakthrough therapy designation for Ipagufin in treating HCC [1] - Yiming Oncology-B (01541) increased by over 4%, with results from the IMM2510/AXN-2510 combination chemotherapy Phase II trial expected to be announced in the second half of the year [1] Group 3: Technology and Other Sectors - ZhongAn Online (06060) rose over 5%, with a cumulative increase of over 30% in stock price this month, likely benefiting from the Hong Kong stablecoin bill [2] - Smoore International (06969) increased by over 7%, with the new generation of heat-not-burn product Glo Hilo set to launch in Japan [3] - Inspur Digital Enterprise (00596) rose over 7%, recognized as a leading company in China's ERP sector, with institutions noting its valuation is significantly undervalued compared to peers [3] - Gu Ming (01364) surged over 7% to reach a new high, with expectations to enter the Hong Kong Stock Connect next month and notable same-store sales growth in Q1 [4] - KEEP (03650) increased by over 7%, with the upcoming launch of a smart sports watch featuring upgraded AI running coach functions [4] - Jacobson Pharmaceutical (02633) rose over 5%, with projected net profit growth of over 10% year-on-year for the fiscal year 2025 [5] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) increased by 9%, as the company was included in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with institutions expecting chip shipments to grow annually [5] - Giant Bio (02367) fell over 2% due to its brand Kefu Mei being involved in a "fake product" scandal, raising concerns from Citigroup about its performance during the 618 promotional period [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a potential divergence in new consumption performance, suggesting a focus on leading companies and undervalued targets [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain digitalization as a core barrier in the mother and baby industry, indicating a shift towards a "content + community" ecosystem [4][5] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Supply chain disruptions continue, with pulp prices recovering rapidly; needle pulp prices are at $740 (down $30 MoM) and unbleached kraft pulp at $620 (down $30 MoM) [2] - Short-term pulp prices are expected to remain low due to ongoing pressure from downstream demand [2] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Shares for profit improvement [2] Exports - April export data shows a stable overall performance with a YoY increase of 8.1%, but regional disparities are evident [2] - Exports to the US decreased by 21%, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8% [2] - Companies like Jiangyi Shares and Hars are recommended for short-term performance recovery [2] New Tobacco - Increased scrutiny from the FDA on illegal e-cigarette products, with a warning issued to 24 importers [3] - The report suggests that compliance suppliers will become increasingly scarce, benefiting compliant brands like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [3] Home Furnishing - Stabilization in second-hand housing prices is noted, with 52% of key city neighborhoods seeing price increases [3] - Recommendations include companies like Gujia Home and Mousse Shares for their strong market positions [3] Consumer Goods - The pet brand sector shows strong growth, with Petty's sales during the 618 shopping festival exceeding 12 million [3] - 52TOYS has submitted an IPO application, indicating a growing trend in the collectible toy sector [3] Packaging - Yongxin Shares and Yutong Technology show stable operations with robust overseas orders [3] - The report anticipates a double-digit growth recovery in Q2 for these companies [3] Two-Wheelers - Ninebot's sales during the 618 pre-sale reached 210 million, showing a significant YoY increase [3] - Aima Technology's stock incentive plan reflects confidence in future growth [3] Jewelry - Chaohongji is planning an H-share issuance to enhance its global strategy [4] - Recommendations include brands like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji for their brand value [4] Cross-Border E-commerce - Increased pressure on low-value package tariffs is anticipated, with G7 discussions on imposing tariffs on Chinese products [4] - TikTok's new policies in Europe may provide growth opportunities for cross-border sellers [4] IP Retail - Pop Mart's jewelry brand is set to open its first store in Shanghai, indicating a new growth avenue [4] - Miniso's Q1 revenue reached 4.43 billion, with a notable increase in overseas store openings [4] Mother and Baby - The industry is transitioning towards a digital supply chain model, focusing on efficiency and flexibility [4] - Recommendations include leading companies like Kidswant and Goodbaby for their growth potential [4] E-commerce - Huitongda's self-branding strategy shows promising results, with significant growth in orders [5] - The report highlights the potential of AI-driven live commerce strategies [5] Electrical and Lighting - Bull Group continues to innovate with new products meeting national standards for charging stations [5] - Op Lighting is exploring new applications for LED technology in agriculture [5] Tools - The report notes a recovery in profit expectations for tool companies, despite weak global demand [5] - Recommendations include companies like Juxing Technology for their market positioning [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing price increases, with wood pulp paper companies announcing price hikes for various paper products starting from May 21, 2025 [2] - The report highlights a positive outlook for new consumption sub-sectors, including personal care, IP cultural products, new tobacco, smart glasses, and pet-related products [2] - Following the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S., there is a recommendation to focus on the recovery of the export chain [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - In April, residential construction area decreased by 26% year-on-year, and residential sales area fell by 3.5% year-on-year [6] - Retail sales of furniture increased by 26.9% year-on-year in April, while sales in building materials and home furnishing markets decreased by 2.52% [6][39] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the customized home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home and Sophia [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 23, 2025, prices for various paper products show mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5162.5 CNY/ton and boxboard paper at 3525.4 CNY/ton [6][50] - The report recommends companies with integrated wood pulp and paper operations, such as Sun Paper, and those with strong domestic sales expectations like Huawang Technology [6] - The report notes a 7.6% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the paper industry for the first four months of 2025 [6][64] Light Industry Consumption - The approval of new national standards for disposable sanitary products is expected to benefit compliant leading brands [6] - The report highlights the strong performance of personal care e-commerce in April and suggests focusing on brands like Dengkang Oral Care and Baiya [6] - The report also mentions the positive outlook for cultural products, recommending companies like Morning Glory [6] Export Chain - In April, exports of certain products like thermos cups increased by 7.34%, while pet food exports decreased by 9.08% [6] - The report anticipates a significant effect from the temporary suspension of tariffs, benefiting companies with robust domestic and international production capabilities [6] New Tobacco - The report notes the potential for new tobacco products to gain traction as international tobacco companies launch HNB products [6] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the new tobacco sector, such as Smoore International, which has strong partnerships with major clients [6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is also noted for outperforming the market, with specific companies showing significant stock price increases [6][29] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Anta and Li Ning in the sportswear segment [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The new tobacco market continues to grow, with heated tobacco products leading in market size and nicotine pouches experiencing the fastest growth [2][3] - The global tobacco market is undergoing significant changes, with Japan's tobacco business expanding rapidly [4] - The global supply of tobacco leaves is facing shortages, leading to widespread price increases across the industry [14] Summary by Sections Electronic Cigarettes - In 2024, global e-cigarette sales are projected to reach $23.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [3] - Sales of disposable e-cigarettes grew by 18.9% to 840 million units, generating $6.42 billion in revenue, up 19.6% [3] - Open system e-cigarettes saw sales of 85.16 million devices and 12.23 million liters of e-liquid, with revenues of $2.62 billion and $5.49 billion respectively [3] Traditional Tobacco Products - Traditional oral tobacco products, including chewing and snuff tobacco, are experiencing a decline, with 2024 sales expected to drop by 0.8% to 115,000 tons [3] - Revenue from traditional oral tobacco is projected to decrease by 0.1% to $13.82 billion [3] Nicotine Pouches - Nicotine pouch sales are expected to grow by 36.9% to 21.23 billion pouches in 2024, with revenue reaching $11.25 billion, a 51.0% increase [3] - The United States leads in nicotine pouch sales with 13.88 billion pouches sold [3] Heated Tobacco Products - Sales of heated tobacco products are projected to grow by 12.7% to $38.85 billion in 2024 [3] - The volume of heated tobacco devices sold is expected to increase by 11.7% to 45.26 million units, with revenue rising by 14.7% to $2.44 billion [3] Company Performance - Philip Morris International reported a net income of $14.66 billion from its smoke-free products, a 14.2% increase, accounting for 38.7% of total revenue [5] - British American Tobacco's Vuse e-cigarette sales declined by 5.9% to 616 million units, impacted by illegal disposable e-cigarettes in the U.S. [6] - Japan Tobacco's Ploom brand heated tobacco sales grew by 24.2% to 218,000 boxes, primarily driven by the Ploom X model [7] Market Dynamics - The global tobacco market is experiencing intense competition, with multinational companies showing divergent growth patterns [4] - The supply chain for tobacco is under pressure due to climate-related shortages and rising prices [14]

Core Viewpoint - The electronic cigarette sector has regained market attention, with stocks like Smoore International experiencing significant price increases, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [1][9]. Industry Overview - The global tobacco market remains dominated by traditional cigarettes, which account for over 80% of the market, while new tobacco products, including heated not burned (HNB) and electronic cigarettes, represent a growing segment valued at $76.9 billion, approximately 8% of the market [1]. - The number of smokers aged 15 and above globally is around 1.25 billion, with a penetration rate of about 15.6%, indicating substantial room for growth in new tobacco product adoption [1]. Market Segmentation - Electronic cigarettes and HNB products are the two main categories of new tobacco, with global market shares of 28% and 45%, respectively [2]. - The global market for e-vapour products is valued at $21.2 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% from 2018 to 2023, while HNB products have a market size of $34.5 billion and a CAGR of 23.3% during the same period [2][3]. Company Performance - Smoore International has shown rapid revenue growth from 2016 to 2021, increasing from 710 million to 13.76 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 81%. However, the company faced challenges in 2022 due to regulatory pressures in China and the U.S. [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 11.799 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.56% [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Smoore has been proactive in developing HNB products since 2010 and has established a dedicated division for HNB, acquiring multiple patents and technological capabilities [6]. - The collaboration with British American Tobacco to launch the Glo Hilo series is anticipated to enhance Smoore's HNB business and overall market position [7]. Future Outlook - The Glo Hilo product is set to launch in Japan and expand into European markets, with expectations of significant profit growth starting in 2025 [8]. - The regulatory environment for electronic cigarettes is stabilizing, which may benefit compliant companies like Smoore, enhancing their market share [8][9].