有色金属 2026 年 2 月 1 日 有色金属周报 海外宏观预期边际变化，有色金属波动加剧 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：贵金属价格周内宽幅震荡。截至 1.30，COMEX 金主 力合约达 4907.5 美元/盎司，环比下跌 1.5%。黄金周内冲高回落。 SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.1%为 1087 吨。特朗普提名前美联储理 事凯文·沃什担任美联储主席. 市场预期沃什会支持降息，但不会像其 他潜在提名者那样采取激进的宽松货币政策。受宽币政策预期边际收 紧影响，叠加上半周金价加速走高，1.30 黄金价格出现加速回落。波 动率加速抬升背景下，金价短期或仍将呈现宽幅震荡走势。但长期来 看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线未现拐点，我们认为黄金 长期走势难言见顶，短期企稳后，金价中枢或仍将抬升。 工业金属：工业金属周内冲高回落。 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 25/01 25/04 25/07 25/10 26/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 风险提示： 证 ...

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

有色金属 2026 年 02 月 01 日 行 业 有色金属 研 究 20260201 周报：市场现货紧张，镨钕价格大幅上 涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美避险需求叠加美元走低，黄金价格继续强势上涨。周内美 国总统特朗普重塑国际关系引发的疯狂上涨，以及投资者纷纷逃离主权债 券和货币市场，正推动市场对贵金属的避险需求。全球地缘政治风险的急 剧上升，是推动金价创下新高的核心驱动力之一。中长期而言，全球关税 政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心， 长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄金，A股关注紫金、 中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯均为黄 金的贝塔，个股关注盛达、湖银、豫光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属：风险集中资金冲动，周四沪铜盘面大涨。铜，本周四沪铜 合约走势风云突变，上海期货交易所金属板块呈现全线大涨格局，多品种 创显著涨幅，其中沪铜2603强势领涨有色金属板块，早盘收盘价暴涨 +6.35%。整体来看，宏观风险事件集中导致的资金冲动是主因。铝，国内 方面：周初央行再次重申2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，沪铝 价格回 ...

2026 年 02 月 01 日 有色金属 全球政策预期突变，关注稀土等国内主 导品种 市场一夜之间，政策预期突然转变，金银领跌商品市场，并引发美股 一系列连锁反应，核心因特朗普提名凯文沃什担任美联储主席。沃什 倡导"缩表 + 降息"的政策组合，偏鹰派的策略给市场浇一盆冷水， 金银等品种出现杠杆杀多现象。短期沃什的提名受阻风险高，5 月任 期交接前均有变数。总之，在政策未完全明朗前，短期金属可能高波 震荡，需注意控制风险。当前可关注受宏观影响较小的板块（稀土、 钨、钽），以及春节后的工业金属（铜铝等）。长期金属逻辑未变， 全球新产业链发展持续拉动金属需求，而供给端的约束持续存在，美 元信用长期走弱是趋势。中长期持续看好稀土铜铝钨金银锡锂钽铌 锑铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4879.6、84.8 美元/盎司,环比分别 -1.94%、-16.0%。特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储 主席，其前期任职期间经常支持更高利率引发市场对美联储后续货币 政策的担忧，金银价格调整幅度较大。央行和 etf 资金积极增持黄金 驱动延续，美元信用担忧仍存，短期价格回调但持续看好金价中长期 上 ...

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： | 基金简称 PK | | | 最新净度以号含就能质量人 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国泰优选领...F) | 1.7001 | 6.88% | 4 | | | 013279 | 2026-1-28 | | | | 2 | 浦银安盛数... A | 1.4112 | 6.79% | | | | 025421 | 2026-1-30 | | | | 3 | 浦银安盛数 ... C | 1.4096 | 6.78% | 7 | | | 025422 | 2026-1-30 | | | | 4 | 长城久祥混合A | 1.7830 | 5.78% | 13 | | | 001613 | 2026-1-30 | | | | 5 | 长城久祥混合C | 1.7508 | 5.78% | | | | 017462 | 2026-1-30 | | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is experiencing a significant cold wave affecting 22 states, leading the Department of Homeland Security to advise against using the term "ICE" in weather forecasts to avoid negative associations with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency [4] - The term "ICE" has dual meanings, referring both to ice and the immigration enforcement agency, which has a poor public image [4] - This situation reflects a broader internal division within American society, where different factions are increasingly hostile towards each other, causing major issues to become contentious [5] Group 2 - The U.S. has adopted the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," initiated by the Trump administration in 2017, which emphasizes India's role as a key partner in regional security and economic cooperation [9] - Major U.S. corporations, including General Motors, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, have heavily invested in India, indicating strong corporate support for the country [10][11] - The media narrative has shifted to portray India as a rising power, often referred to as "the next China," highlighting its potential as a destination for investment and innovation [12] Group 3 - Despite the optimistic outlook, many U.S. companies have faced significant challenges in India, with General Motors incurring a loss of $1 billion before deciding to exit the market [16] - The average time to close a factory in India is reported to be 4.3 years, which is significantly longer than in other countries, indicating operational difficulties [17] - Over 2,000 multinational companies have paused their operations in India in recent years, suggesting a trend of disillusionment with the Indian market [18] Group 4 - India's manufacturing sector has not met expectations, with the "Make in India" initiative failing to deliver significant results, as evidenced by a 96.5% drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) to $353 million for the fiscal year 2024-2025 [21][22] - In contrast, U.S. FDI in India remains substantial, with a stock of $54.76 billion as of September 2024, indicating continued American interest despite challenges [23] - Companies like Ford are planning to re-enter the Indian market, and tech giants are investing in India's digital infrastructure, showing a complex relationship between optimism and reality [24][25] Group 5 - The article contrasts India with Africa, highlighting that both regions share similar challenges in industrialization and infrastructure development, but Africa is seen as having greater potential due to its vast resources and younger population [31][35] - Africa's population is projected to grow significantly, with the labor force expected to increase dramatically by 2050, presenting a potential advantage over India [35] - The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is establishing a unified market, with intra-African trade expected to grow significantly, further enhancing Africa's economic prospects [41][42] Group 6 - The article emphasizes that while both India and Africa face industrialization challenges, Africa's resource wealth and emerging market potential position it as a "super growth pole" [48] - U.S. investment strategies appear to be shifting towards India as a counterbalance to China's influence in Africa, despite the latter's advantages [81] - The narrative suggests that the U.S. is increasingly focusing on India due to its geopolitical significance, while simultaneously losing ground in Africa [81]

Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 30, international gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling from a peak of $5,450 per ounce to below $5,000, marking a maximum decline of 8% [1] - Concurrently, international silver prices also plummeted, with spot silver dropping below $100, experiencing a decline of over 17% [3] Group 2: Impact on A-Share Market - The A-share gold concept sector faced a "limit down" wave, with multiple companies such as Yunnan Copper, Jiangxi Copper, and Zhongjin Gold hitting the trading limit [5] - Specific stock performances included Shandong Gold and Sichuan Gold both declining by 10% [7] Group 3: Jewelry and Retail Market Reaction - Several gold jewelry brands significantly reduced their prices, with quotes for 24K gold jewelry dropping to around 1,620 to 1,685 yuan per gram, down from over 1,700 yuan [12] - In Beijing, gold buyback prices were adjusted downwards by nearly 70 yuan per gram within a single day, causing hesitation among sellers [12][13] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Analyst Views - Analyst Dan Bin expressed a bearish outlook on gold and silver, suggesting that extreme price increases often lead to sharp declines [15] - Historical patterns indicate that gold prices have previously experienced significant volatility, with analysts noting that market conditions such as U.S. economic performance and geopolitical risks will influence future price movements [16] Group 5: Global Gold Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is projected to reach 5,002 tons by 2025, driven by investment demand and geopolitical uncertainties [18] - In 2025, global gold ETF demand is expected to increase significantly, with North American funds contributing the majority of the growth [19] - China's gold investment demand is also anticipated to remain strong, with a notable increase in gold bar and coin purchases [20]

每经编辑｜段炼 黄金价格，风云突变。 1月30日，国际金价大跳水，现货黄金从最高5450美元/盎司一路下跌，一度跌破5000美元，最大跌幅达8%。 与此同时，国际银价也急转直下，现货白银跌破100美元大关，一度跌超17%。 同日，A股黄金概念板块掀"跌停潮"。云南铜业、白银有色、江西铜业、中金黄金、山东黄金、四川黄金、招金黄金、西部矿业等大面积跌停。 | 成分股 看点 基金 资金 | | 简况(F10) 新闻 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称/代码 | 最新 ◆ | 涨幅 ◆ 5日涨幅 ◆ ▶ | | 山金国际 | | 34.84 -10.00% +0.84% | | 000975 融 | | | | 四川黄金 | | 66.18 -10.00% +31.75% | | 001337 融 | | | | 人气龙头2 领涨龙头1 黄金开采 | | | | 招金黄金 | 25.67 | -9.99% +31.78% | | 000506 | | | | 人气龙头1 黄金开采 | | | | 驰宏锌诸 | 9.82 | -9.99% -2.68% | | 600497 融 | | | | 洛阳钼 ...

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short position ratios are China COSCO Shipping (01919) at 17.74%, Vanke (02202) at 17.56%, and Dongfang Electric (01072) at 17.36% [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute increase in short position ratios are Neway Group (01686) with an increase of 2.33%, China Ship Leasing (03877) with an increase of 2.23%, and Pacific Shipping (02343) with an increase of 1.78% [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute decrease in short position ratios are Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) with a decrease of -1.92%, Lens Technology (06613) with a decrease of -1.51%, and Country Garden (02007) with a decrease of -1.48% [1][3] Group 2 - The latest short position ratios for the top ten companies show China COSCO Shipping (01919) at 17.74%, Vanke (02202) at 17.56%, and Dongfang Electric (01072) at 17.36% [2] - The companies with the largest increases in short position ratios include Neway Group (01686) from 3.65% to 5.99%, China Ship Leasing (03877) from 0.74% to 2.97%, and Pacific Shipping (02343) from 5.02% to 6.80% [2] - The companies with the largest decreases in short position ratios include Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) from 7.94% to 6.02%, Lens Technology (06613) from 8.32% to 6.80%, and Country Garden (02007) from 3.02% to 1.54% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry, indicating a high cost-performance investment stage with potential for sustained growth [1][5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a significant increase, with the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 94.73% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 77.07 percentage points [1][13]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between major powers like the US and China, are expected to continue impacting the stability of the metal supply chain, leading to increased raw material costs and upward price pressures on strategic metals [2][30]. - The demand outlook for non-ferrous metals remains strong, driven by emerging industries such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence, which require high-performance materials [4][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a transformation due to supply constraints and changing demand dynamics, with certain metals reaching new price highs [1][2]. - The industry is positioned for growth, supported by favorable policies and a robust demand from new technologies [24][25]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are particularly favorable in precious metals, copper, and strategic metals, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in high-growth sectors [3][5]. - Key companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Northern Rare Earth [5]. Emerging Trends - The rapid expansion of new industries is creating a strategic demand for upstream materials, which are now subject to stricter performance and purity standards [4][34]. - The shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy is expected to sustain high demand for metals like lithium, copper, and rare earth elements [36][42]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the tightening supply of strategic metals due to increased global regulatory controls, which is expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance [31][32]. - The copper market is particularly noted for its supply constraints and increasing demand, with a significant reliance on imports to meet domestic needs [46][47]. Future Outlook - The profitability outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to improve, with potential for continued price increases in copper, aluminum, and gold, driven by strong industrial demand and macroeconomic conditions [15][30].