铜周报 地缘风险加剧，铜价延续反弹 核心观点及策略 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因美伊冲突升级地缘政治风险加 剧，全球市场避险情绪迅速升温。此外，市场聚焦下月沃 什听证会上能否捍卫美联储独立性及未来的货币政策路 径，特朗普最新10%的临时关税降低了中国运往美国的商 品关税，利好短期国内出口，而全球AI数据中心和老旧电 网系统的改造仍需要依赖大量的铜资源；基本面来看，矿 端供应偏紧格局延续，国内冶炼厂产量边际下滑，全球显 性库存继续上行，内贸现货转向小幅升水，近月盘面C结 构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2026 年 3 月 2 日 ⚫ 整体来看， ...

每日晨报│2026 年 3 月 2 日 | | 汇率 | 1M 升跌 | 6M 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币指数 | 97.810 | -0.74% | +1.84% | | 美汇指数 | 97.744 | +1.58% | -0.50% | | 港币/人民币 | 0.877 | +1.71% | +4.80% | | 人民币/美元 | 0.146 | -1.38% | -4.09% | | 欧元/美元 | 1.181 | -1.96% | +1.43% | | 美元/日元 | 156.200 | -2.55% | -5.62% | | 英镑/美元 | 1.349 | -2.59% | -0.05% | | 美元/瑞士法郎 | 0.773 | -1.53% | +3.79% | 主要商品表 | (货币：美元) | 最新价 | 1M 升跌 | 6M 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(桶) | 71.390 | +7.21% | +7.92% | | 天然气(1mnBtu) | 2.832 | -22.83% | -17.00 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月2日，材料ETF（159944）开盘涨1.43%，报1.846元。材料ETF（159944）重仓股方面，紫金矿业开 盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，万华化学涨0.11%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，盐湖股份涨1.05%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%。 材料ETF（159944）业绩比较基准为中证全指原材料指数，管理人为广发基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为姚曦，成立（2015-06-25）以来回报为82.05%，近一个月回报为3.93%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 3月2日，有色ETF汇添富（159652）开盘涨2.64%，报2.136元。有色ETF汇添富（159652）重仓股方 面，紫金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，天齐锂业跌 1.08%。 有色ETF汇添富（159652）业绩比较基准为中证细分有色金属产业主题指数收益率，管理人为汇添富基 金管理股份有限公司，基金经理为董瑾、孙浩，成立（2023-01-16）以来回报为107.95%，近一个月回 报为0.63%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 核心结论 分析师 【电子】2026 年电子年度策略：端云算力同频共振，自主可控步履铿锵 AI 硬件：国产 AI 芯片发展迅速，算力高景气度下，PCB、存储等供不应求。 半导体：全球资本开支重回增长轨道，晶圆扩产驱动设备国产化与先进封装 高景气。 端侧：AI 重塑终端形态，硬件升级与新兴品类开启新一轮创新周期。 【航海装备Ⅱ】船舶行业系列报告之二：船舶：摘取皇冠明珠，国产 LNG 船扬帆起航 LNG 运输船是现代造船工业皇冠上璀璨的明珠，其技术壁垒较高，是中国 造船业一直想要突破的高端船舶产品。2008 年 4 月 3 日，中国首制 14.7 万 立方米系列 LNG 船"大鹏昊"成功交付，打破了西方垄断 LNG 船市场的局 面，成功实现了"国轮国造"。 【计算机】英伟达 LPU 方案印证专用推理芯片的可行性 我们认为：英伟达将 LPU 整合进自身 AI 芯片体系，展现了专用推理芯片 （ASIC/DSA）在生成式 AI 推理计算中的重要性。这或将印证国产 AI 芯片 通过专业推理架构，在 AI 推理侧实现性能突破的可能性。AI 推理芯片的高 速迭代，或将推 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for precious metals due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the military actions between the US and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran's military conflict may impact its production capabilities, particularly in metals where it holds a high global market share, such as strontium (56% of global production) and DRI (24% of global production) [4][5]. - Copper and zinc are identified as critical metals with significant implications for global supply chains, especially in light of potential disruptions in the Middle East [6]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions will enhance the appeal of gold and silver as inflation hedges, with gold prices expected to rise in response to increased demand [3]. - The report also discusses the potential for silver prices to be more volatile due to its dual role as an industrial and financial asset [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report indicates that the ongoing conflict may tighten the global aluminum supply, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could lead to price increases [11][12]. - It highlights that the aluminum market is currently in a state of tight balance, with potential for price support due to supply constraints [11]. New Energy Metals - The report discusses Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting their pricing and availability [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, and the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are likely to provide substantial support for their prices. In the industrial metals sector, there was a significant accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the inventory reduction speed post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be tested as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19]. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) [4] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE as of February 27. The supply side remains tight, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The focus is on the inventory reduction speed as production resumes [17][28][72] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, which may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing has recovered, and inventory levels have increased significantly [16][87][83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

碳酸锂专题：津巴布韦变化如何影响碳酸锂供需 20260226 摘要 2026 年全球锂需求预计达 213 万吨碳酸锂当量，同比增长 33%，主要 由动力电池和储能需求驱动，其中动力电芯增速预计达 25%，储能增速 约 50%，但需结合电芯供应约束评估。 2026 年全球锂资源供给预计为 225-230 万吨碳酸锂当量，同比增长超 30%，中国、阿根廷、智利和澳大利亚为主要增量来源，但国内上游供 给扩张慢于下游，有效产能受利润分配和原料成本压力制约。 国内碳酸锂市场 2026 年预计呈紧平衡，过剩量约 1.5-2 万吨，库销比 不足 5 天，价格趋势偏强，季节性低点可能在 7-8 月，高点在 10-11 月， 海外锂盐企业供应心态变化或限制对华进口量大幅增加。 津巴布韦出口禁令若持续超过两个月，可能导致国内碳酸锂月度供应减 少 1-1.5 万吨，影响比例约 10%-15%，短期内价格将明显冲高，但受 多方面管控，持续性存在不确定性，或加速海外锂资源释放。 津巴布韦禁令旨在加强管控不合规出口，推动资源就地转化，要求企业 在当地建设硫酸锂产线，但目前仅华友具备相关资质，其他项目进展缓 慢，禁令执行时点存在协商空间。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the **autonomous mining truck industry**, highlighting various collaboration models including direct purchases by mining companies, leasing partnerships between manufacturers and technology firms, and engineering operation models led by autonomous technology companies [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Collaboration Models**: - Mining companies or engineering contractors may purchase trucks and then procure autonomous capabilities from technology firms [3]. - Alternatively, they may opt for a leasing model where the manufacturer collaborates with technology companies [3]. - The engineering operation model allows technology firms to provide both vehicles and autonomous technology, with mining companies only issuing production tasks [3]. - **Service Fees**: - The mainstream service fee for a single truck over three years ranges from **600,000 to 650,000 CNY**, translating to approximately **0.7 CNY per ton** based on an annual transport volume of **300,000 tons** [1][4]. - Service fees have decreased from **650,000-700,000 CNY** to **600,000-650,000 CNY** due to declining hardware costs and increased competition [1][4][5]. - **Efficiency Improvements**: - The industry aims to improve transport efficiency from **70%-75% in 2023** to **90%-95% by 2025** [1][6]. - Challenges to achieving significant efficiency gains include production habits, site management, and interference from auxiliary vehicles [6]. - **Cost Structure**: - The cost of the autonomous driving kit does not include modifications for line control braking, which adds an additional **120,000-150,000 CNY** [7]. - Profit margin improvements depend on the scaling down of hardware costs and controlling delivery-related labor expenses [7]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The domestic delivery of autonomous mining trucks is expected to accelerate significantly post-2023, driven by data accumulation, technological breakthroughs, and policy directives [3][20]. - Policies require mines with capacities over **10 million tons** to meet intermediate or advanced levels of automation, enhancing the motivation for mining companies to adopt these technologies [3][20]. - **Customer Behavior**: - Customers typically prefer to work with multiple suppliers (2-3) to mitigate risks associated with production scheduling and compatibility issues [10]. - The repurchase rate among customers is approximately **44%-45%**, indicating a reliance on new customer acquisition for business growth [10]. - **Safety and Efficiency**: - The focus on achieving production efficiency of **90%-95%** is critical, as it directly impacts output and operational capacity [11]. - Safety improvements are also a significant concern, with the reduction of personnel in transport operations being a key benefit of autonomous technology [22]. - **International Market Challenges**: - The overseas market for autonomous mining trucks is projected to be about **1/5** the size of the domestic market, with significant challenges in brand recognition and adaptation to local conditions [23][24]. - **Company-Specific Insights**: - Companies like **Yikong** and **Xidi** have different operational models, with Yikong focusing on technology operations and Xidi on pure technology delivery [14][15]. - Yikong has a larger stock of vehicles due to its operational model, while Xidi's approach emphasizes partnerships with engineering firms [14][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the autonomous mining truck industry, pricing models, efficiency targets, and market dynamics.