Core Viewpoint - Codelco and Glencore have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a copper smelter in Antofagasta, Chile, aiming to enhance local copper processing capacity and reduce reliance on foreign smelting [1][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Codelco will supply up to 800,000 tonnes per annum of copper concentrate to Glencore for a minimum of ten years, with a potential ten-year extension [2]. - The planned smelter will have a processing capacity of approximately 1.5 million tonnes per annum of concentrate [2][3]. - The investment required for the project is estimated between $1.5 billion and $2 billion [3]. Group 2: Project Timeline and Feasibility - Glencore will conduct a pre-feasibility study, with the aim to finalize the agreement in the first half of next year [3]. - Engineering studies for feasibility and permitting are expected to be completed by 2027, with construction anticipated to start in 2030 and operations beginning between 2032 and 2033 [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - Chile currently holds only 6% of global copper smelting capacity, with a significant portion of its copper being processed in China, which controls half of the world's smelting capacity [4]. - The Chilean government is working to expand local smelting infrastructure, including a $1.7 billion modernization project led by ENAMI [5]. - The Codelco-Glencore agreement aligns with national objectives to increase domestic smelting capacity [5]. Group 4: Glencore's Broader Strategy - Glencore plans to restart operations at its Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year, with production expected to commence by the first half of 2028 [5]. - Once operational, the Alumbrera mine is projected to produce approximately 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over four years [6]. - Glencore aims to expand its annual copper production to around 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, reversing a multi-year decline in output [6].

来源：市场资讯 宏观流动性的宽松预期为铜价注入"金融属性动力"。截至12月4日，美国利率期货显示，市场对美联储 12月降息25个基点的概率已超80%。银河证券研报进一步指出，美联储年底或从"缩表"转为"扩表"，流 动性边际宽松将直接利好铜等大宗商品。 美元指数的持续走弱则放大涨势。今年以来美元指数已下跌8%，铜作为"以美元计价"的全球资产，吸 引力显著提升。默克投资创始人阿克塞尔・默克表示："投资者正通过铜、黄金等资产对冲美元购买力 下降风险，这也是近期工业金属与贵金属同步上涨的核心原因。" （来源：懒人财知道） 12月4日，工业金属市场的"铜市热度"持续发酵，沪铜主连早盘以90070元/吨开盘后，迅速开启冲高模 式，盘中最高触及91400元/吨，刷新前一日刚创下的历史新高。 国际市场上，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜延续涨势，日内涨2.1%报11520美元/吨，续创历史新 高；纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜价则站稳5.25美元/磅，较12月3日上涨1.8%。 为何持续冲高？三大核心逻辑共振，铜市进入"强驱动周期" 沪铜能在创历史新高后继续冲高，本质是"供应端收缩+宏观面宽松+需求端结构性增长"的三重逻辑 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数意外创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅 观点分享： 12 月 3 日，最新公布的 ADP 就业数据显示，11 月私营企业减少 3.2 万个工作岗位，为 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加 4 万个岗位。ADP 报告显示，小型企业 成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于 50 人的小型企业合计减少 12 万个岗位，其中 20 至 49 人规 模的企业裁员 7.4 万人。相比之下，50 人以上的大型企业净增 9 万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现 明显分化。美国商务部长卢特尼克将数据疲软归咎政府停摆与驱逐移民，否认关税拖累就 业。这份报告是美联储 12 月 9 日至 10 日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计 美联储再次降息 25 个基点的概率接近 90%。 | | | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | ★★★★ | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力。烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯 ...

Group 1 - Codelco has signed a memorandum of understanding with Glencore for collaboration on a Chilean smelter project [1] - Under the agreement, Codelco will supply up to 80,800 tons of copper concentrate annually to Glencore, which will lead the project development [1] - Codelco will not directly construct or fund the smelter, and Glencore will conduct a feasibility study with the aim to finalize the deal by mid-next year [1] Group 2 - If the project proceeds, construction is expected to start in 2030, with production anticipated in 2032-2033 [1] - Codelco selected Glencore through a bidding process for this collaboration [1]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：0 ...

Chile’s state copper supplier Codelco signed an agreement with Swiss commodities giant Glencore to design and possibly develop and operate a new smelter in northern Chile. https://t.co/O4dwsH4GJY ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each sector has its own market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks. Overall, different sectors are expected to show different trends such as upward, downward, or sideways movements, and specific investment strategies are recommended for each sector [2][9][46]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65%. The four major stock index futures contracts also recovered, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired. The market was influenced by domestic economic data and overseas news. Short - term operations suggest light - selling December put options and building long - spread positions on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined. The market was affected by factors such as capital conditions, PMI data, and rumors of new regulations on fund redemption fees. Short - term operations suggest waiting for incremental information to choose a direction and focusing on certain strategies for futures - cash operations [6][8]. Precious Metals - The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, the Japanese central bank hinted at a possible interest rate hike, and there were positive signals for the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. Gold and platinum - palladium prices were relatively stable, while silver showed strong performance. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Specific strategies are recommended for different precious metals [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - As of December 1, the SCFIS European Line Index and the US West Route Index both declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different trends. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, but the spot market was weak. Short - term operations suggest a downward trend [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices rose again due to concerns about supply shortages. The spot price increased, and the discount of the premium decreased. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand showed strong resilience. In the short - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and the market is expected to be strong [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price was stable with a slight decline in some regions. The supply was abundant, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price increased, and the market showed a positive feedback in the domestic fundamentals. The downstream procurement willingness increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21400 - 22000 yuan/ton [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum was tight. The demand showed resilience, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The spot price increased, and the supply was expected to decrease. The demand showed a structural improvement, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price increased, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The demand in South China showed resilience, while that in East China was weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and a strategy of holding existing long positions and buying on dips is recommended [29][33]. - **Nickel**: The spot price increased slightly, and the production was expected to decrease slightly but still remained at a high level. The demand showed different trends in different sectors, and the inventory was at a high level. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price was stable, and the supply pressure remained high. The demand was weak, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be in a weak - sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [36][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price increased, and the supply continued to increase. The demand was optimistic, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [40][43]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price was stable, and the supply was expected to be in excess in December. The demand weakened, and the inventory increased. The futures price may face pressure, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money put options is recommended [43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. The demand was not optimistic, and the inventory increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [46][47]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price strengthened, and the cost and profit situation improved slightly. The supply decreased seasonally, and the demand showed different trends in different structures. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and strategies such as long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage are recommended [46][48][50]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the supply and demand situation changed. The supply increased in some aspects and decreased in others, and the demand was supported. The inventory showed different trends. The price is expected to be in a strong - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 750 - 820 [51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures price rebounded from the bottom. The supply was affected by factors such as mine shutdowns, and the demand was affected by the decline in iron - water production. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a sideways - rebound trend, and an arbitrage strategy of short - term and long - term contracts is recommended [53][55]. - **Coke**: The spot price was reduced, and the futures price rebounded from the bottom. The supply increased due to the improvement of coking profits, and the demand was affected by the decline in iron - water production. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a sideways - rebound trend, and an arbitrage strategy of short - term and long - term contracts is recommended [56][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was zero. The market lacked clear guidance, and the price is expected to be in a sideways trend [60][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price rebounded, and the profit of pig - raising decreased. The supply and demand were basically balanced in the short - term, and the price is expected to be in a weak - sideways trend. A strategy of holding short - term and long - term spread positions is recommended [62][63]. - **Corn**: The spot price showed different trends in different regions, and the supply was slightly tight. The demand showed different characteristics in different sectors. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply [64][65]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price was bearish, and the domestic sugar price was in a bottom - sideways trend. The supply in Brazil increased, and the new sugar in Guangxi entered the market. The price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend [66]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was in a bottom - sideways trend, and the domestic cotton price was in a range - sideways trend. The US cotton export sales decreased, and the domestic cotton faced hedging pressure but also had support. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong - sideways trend [68][69]. - **Eggs**: The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the supply decreased. The demand showed different trends in different links. The price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend [70][71]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of soybean oil and palm oil rose, influenced by factors such as overseas market trends and supply - demand conditions. The price of palm oil is expected to be in a sideways - downward trend, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be affected by factors such as bio - fuel policies and Chinese procurement [72][73]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price in the production area weakened, and the supply pressure was significant. The demand was not improved significantly. The price is expected to be in a low - level weak - sideways trend [75][76]. - **Apples**: The spot price in the production area was stable, and the trading was slow. The demand for stored apples was general. The price is expected to be in a slow - trading state [77]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The spot price rose, and the profit increased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased. The price is expected to be strongly supported in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [77][79]. - **PTA**: The spot price increased, and the profit situation improved. The supply and demand situation changed, with the supply increasing and the demand having certain support. The price is expected to be in a high - level sideways trend, and a positive - spread strategy for different contracts is recommended [80][82]. - **Short - Fiber**: The spot price increased, and the profit decreased. The supply remained high, and the demand weakened seasonally. The price is expected to be supported in the short - term, but the processing fee is expected to be compressed [83][84]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot price increased, and the profit decreased. The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [85][86]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot price was stable, and the supply and demand situation was loose. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 3800 - 4000 [87]. - **Pure Benzene**: The spot price was in a range - sideways trend, and the supply was expected to be loose. The demand was supported limitedly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [88][89]. - **Styrene**: The spot price was stable, and the supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. The upward driving force was insufficient. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 6300 - 6600 [90][91]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price changed little, and the supply increased while the demand decreased slightly. The inventory showed different trends. The price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 6700 - 7000 [92]. - **PP**: The spot price showed different trends in different regions, and the supply and demand both increased. The inventory increased slightly, but the pressure was relieved by unexpected shutdowns. The price is expected to have limited downward space, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [93]. - **Methanol**: The spot price strengthened, and the supply and demand situation changed. The supply increased in some areas and decreased in others, and the demand was supported by factors such as winter fuel demand. A specific strategy for MTO contracts is recommended [93][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand were under pressure. The price is expected to be in a weak - downward trend [94][95]. - **PVC**: The spot price was in a stalemate, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The price is expected to be in a bottom - weakening trend [96][97]. - **Soda Ash**: The production increased after a decline, and the price was in a sideways trend. The supply and demand situation changed, and the price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend. A strategy of waiting for rebounds and short - selling is recommended [98][99]. - **Glass**: The production and sales decreased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The supply and demand situation changed, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [98][100]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price of overseas raw materials fell, and the supply increased seasonally. The demand was weak in some aspects. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 15000 - 15500 [100][103]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand were not strongly supported. The cost was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [103][106].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of silver and copper have surged to historical highs due to tightening global supply and expectations of monetary policy easing, reflecting a strong optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market and highlighting specific supply-demand imbalances for silver and copper [1][3][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver prices reached an all-time high of over $57 per ounce on December 1, with a daily increase of approximately 1%, while silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $57.81 [1][3]. - Concerns over supply shortages and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have driven the rapid price increase [3][10]. - China's silver inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, with over 660 tons exported, marking a historical peak [8][9]. - The significant inventory depletion in China is attributed to cross-border tariff arbitrage activities, exacerbating global supply tightness [3][8]. Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The copper price also reached a record high of $11,210.5 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, with a 13% increase since late August, driven by similar supply constraints and arbitrage activities [4][7]. - The interconnected rise of silver and copper prices illustrates the core narrative of the current commodity market, emphasizing supply shortages as a key price driver [7][9]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing supply tightness could lead to further depletion of copper inventories in regions outside the U.S. [7][8]. Monetary Policy Impact - Expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have provided solid support for the precious metals market, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [10][11]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market expectations for a potential rate cut in December, further boosting confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of silver and copper driven by global supply constraints and expectations of monetary policy easing, marking a significant shift in the commodities market [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strong momentum in silver and copper prices reflects a general optimism in the precious metals market and specific supply-demand imbalances for these metals [2]. - On December 1, 2023, spot silver prices surpassed $57 per ounce for the first time in history, with silver futures reaching $57.81 per ounce [3]. - China's silver inventory has dropped to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, indicating a significant consumption of inventory due to cross-border tariff arbitrage activities [5][11]. Price Trends and Market Reactions - Copper prices also surged, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) reaching a historical high of $11,210.5 per ton, and Comex copper prices rising to $532.55 per pound [5][7]. - Since the end of August, LME copper prices have increased by approximately 13%, driven by supply tightness and traders moving inventory to the U.S. to lock in premiums [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current situation is characterized by a supply shortage that is becoming a core driver of prices, as indicated by the movement of large inventories to the U.S. market [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the supply tightness is evident in commercial negotiations, with Chilean copper producer Codelco seeking to significantly increase its annual contract premiums [12]. Monetary Policy Influence - Expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve are providing solid support for silver and the broader precious metals market, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [14]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market expectations for a potential rate cut in December, further boosting confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [14].

Group 1 - Silver prices reached an all-time high of $57 per ounce, while Comex silver futures hit a record of $57.81, indicating a significant surge in the commodity market [3] - Copper prices also rose sharply, reaching $11,210.5 per ton, contributing to a heated commodity market as 2024 approaches [3] - The current price surge is attributed to a combination of global inventory shifts, structural shortages, and a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve [4] Group 2 - China's silver exports surged to 660 tons in October, marking a historical peak, while Shanghai Gold Exchange's inventory fell below 716 tons, the lowest since 2016 [5] - Concerns over potential tariffs have led traders to move silver and copper from Asian warehouses to the U.S. to lock in price premiums, resulting in a more than 40% drop in London copper inventories since late August [5] - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, plans to increase its annual premium for copper shipments to China from $89 per ton to $350 per ton, reflecting heightened anxiety over raw material supply [5] Group 3 - Expectations for interest rate cuts have strengthened, with market bets on a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Open Market Committee in December rising to 80% [6] - The low interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding silver, leading to increased net long positions in ETFs and hedge funds, which have reached a four-year high [6] - The simultaneous decline in exchange inventories, Chinese social inventories, and bonded warehouses, combined with the expectation that new mining capacity in South America will not materialize until at least Q2 2025, is likely to amplify price volatility [7] Group 4 - Analysts expect London copper to challenge $12,000, while silver could reach $60 if it maintains above $57, indicating a potential new commodity supercycle [7] - The linkage between silver and copper prices is seen as a signal of a new phase in the commodity market, beyond the simple resonance between precious and industrial metals [7]