双融日报 2026 年 02 月 02 日 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：40 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2026-01-30 2、《双融日报》2026-01-29 3、《双融日报》2026-01-28 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 40 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 天 化 （600096） 2、银行主题 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating due to the current geopolitical risks and potential for price recovery in the medium to long term [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in oil prices reflects geopolitical risk premiums, particularly due to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which significantly impact global oil supply security [4][7]. - It is anticipated that oil prices will exhibit characteristics of being "geopolitically driven with fundamental support" around the Chinese New Year, with potential further increases if conflict expectations materialize [7]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to fundamental pricing logic as the oil supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, limiting upward price movement without sustained geopolitical conflict [7]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of January 30, Brent crude oil futures closed at $70.69 per barrel, a 7.30% increase from the previous week, while WTI futures rose by 6.78% to $65.21 per barrel [15]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 424 million barrels, down 2.296 million barrels week-on-week, which is 3% lower than the five-year average [17]. - The report notes a trend of increasing oil service activity, with drilling day rates remaining stable despite low levels, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [15][35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products fell to $9.40 per barrel, a decrease of $2.69 from the previous week [54]. - The report indicates that while refining profitability has improved, the current product price differentials remain low, with expectations for gradual improvement as economic recovery progresses [51]. Polyester Sector - The report observes an increase in PTA profitability, with prices rising to 5,271.4 CNY per ton, a 4.66% increase week-on-week [1]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is deemed average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive advantages [1][10]. - It also suggests maintaining a neutral outlook on oil companies, with a focus on those offering high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating due to the current geopolitical risks and potential for price recovery in the medium to long term [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in oil prices is primarily driven by geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, which have led to Brent crude oil prices exceeding $70 per barrel [1][4]. - It is anticipated that oil prices will exhibit characteristics of being "geopolitically driven with fundamental support" around the Chinese New Year, with potential further increases if conflict expectations materialize [7]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to fundamental pricing logic, with oil supply and demand expected to be in a loose balance, limiting upward price movement unless geopolitical tensions persist [7]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of January 30, Brent crude oil futures closed at $70.69 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.30%, while WTI futures rose by 6.78% to $65.21 per barrel [15]. - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 424 million barrels, down by 2.296 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 3% decline compared to the past five years [17]. - The report notes a trend of increasing oil service activity, with drilling day rates remaining stable despite low levels, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [15]. Refining Sector - The report indicates a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's refining margin dropping to $9.40 per barrel, down by $2.69 from the previous week [54]. - The report anticipates that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust, with expectations of gradual recovery in refining product margins as economic conditions stabilize [51]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights an increase in PTA profitability, with prices rising to 5,271.4 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.66% [1]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with a need to monitor demand changes, but a gradual improvement is expected as new production capacities taper off [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [1][10]. - It also suggests maintaining a neutral outlook on oil companies, with a preference for those offering higher dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [10].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 综述：高位回落 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 供应 • 周期内茂名石化高顺顺丁装置重启，华北地区个别顺丁橡胶装置略有降负，总体产能利用率仅窄幅波动。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.07万吨，较上周期 增加0.0104万吨，环比+0.34%，产能利用率76.38%，环比0.27个百分点。周期内茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置投料重启，浩普新材料、振华新材料及山东益华顺 丁橡胶装置负荷略有下降。下周期暂无新装置重启或停车检修消息，但仍需谨慎观望民营顺丁橡胶装置负荷情况。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，周期内部分半钢胎样本企业受外贸订单支撑，装置排产稍有提升，对半钢胎样本企业产能利用率形成支撑；全钢胎出货表现平淡，部分企业 仍存控产现象，拖拽产能利用率微跌。预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率将有所下滑。近期多种原料价格高位运行，成本压力下，部分样本企业在1 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors remain the primary driver in the current oil market, with significant attention on the potential for conflict between the US and Iran. The market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $8-10 per barrel related to Iran [15][17]. - The report anticipates that if the situation with Iran does not escalate into a full-blown conflict, oil prices may revert to supply-demand fundamentals, potentially leading to a price decline [15][17]. - The report highlights that the recent cold wave and reduced production in Kazakhstan have slowed the accumulation of global inventories, with expectations of a return to a higher accumulation rate in the coming weeks [17][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a weekly increase of +7.95%, with specific indices such as the oil and gas resources index rising by +7.79% and the oil and gas extraction services index by +7.96% [10][11]. Oil Sector - As of January 29, WTI crude oil was priced at $65.42, up by $6.06, while Brent crude was at $72.57, up by $6.60. The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels [16][17]. - The report notes that US crude oil production stands at 13.696 million barrels per day, with a decrease in net imports by 61.8% [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries was reported at 80.02%, with a slight increase of 1.24 percentage points from the previous week. The average refining margin for major refineries was 659.83 yuan per ton, down by 101.65 yuan per ton [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has increased to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees at 374.32 yuan per ton. The report indicates a decline in profitability for polyester products, with average profit levels for various types of polyester showing negative margins [16]. Olefins Sector - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The propylene market saw an increase in average transaction prices to 6400 yuan per ton, up by 3.64% [16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a rapid increase in prices due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran's potential actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a risk premium estimated at $8-10 per barrel [15][16]. - The overall supply remains in excess, with previous supportive factors like cold weather and reduced production in Kazakhstan starting to stabilize [15]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments of the petrochemical industry, with oil and gas resources showing a +7.79% increase, while the polyester index decreased by -1.82% [10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing significant weekly changes, including the oil and gas extraction service index at +7.96% and the refining and chemical index at +6.75% [10][11]. Oil Market - As of January 29, WTI crude oil closed at $65.42, up $6.06 from the previous week, while Brent crude closed at $72.57, up $6.60 [16]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries increased to 80.02%, with a slight rise in gasoline demand due to seasonal travel [16]. - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 659.83 yuan per ton, down 101.65 yuan from the previous period [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has risen to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees reported at 374.32 yuan per ton [15]. - The report notes a decline in profitability for various polyester products, with average profit levels for POY150D at -21.03 yuan per ton [15]. Olefins Market - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [15]. - Propylene prices in Shandong increased by 225 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.64% rise [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 01, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience a high-level decline in the short term. This is due to the reduction of geopolitical conflict probability and weakening macro sentiment, as well as the approaching boundary of some valuation indicators and the increasing negative feedback expectation [3][4]. - The butadiene market has limited short-term drivers and is expected to decline in the short term but has support in the medium term. The overall domestic butadiene fundamentals are balanced [5]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the cycle, the high-cis butadiene rubber unit of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the load of individual butadiene rubber units in North China decreased slightly. The total capacity utilization rate only fluctuated slightly. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 30,700 tons, an increase of 104 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month increase of 0.34%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.38%, a month-on-month increase of 0.27 percentage points [4]. - There is no news of new unit restart or shutdown for maintenance in the next cycle, but the load of private butadiene rubber units still needs to be carefully observed [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some semi-steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders during the cycle, and the unit production schedule increased slightly, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all-steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging the capacity utilization rate down slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will decline in the next cycle [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR-BR main contracts has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the substitution demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [4]. Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.74%. The price of butadiene, the raw material, increased unexpectedly this cycle, significantly driving up the butadiene rubber market. The low-price negotiation center shifted significantly upward, but the buying follow-up was slow. At the same time, butadiene rubber production was still significantly in the red, and some private enterprises in North China reduced their loads to varying degrees. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased slightly overall [4]. Valuation - The current static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,500 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculation is relatively strong, and the upward valuation pressure is invalid. In terms of the downward valuation, the NR-BR spread has completely shrunk, and the spread's support for valuation has failed. The effective support level is the butadiene rubber cost line, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side. The theoretical full cost of butadiene is estimated to be mainly based on the butadiene price * 1.02 + (auxiliary agents + labor) = 10,500 * 1.02 + 2,500 ≈ 13,200. In terms of the actual full cost, depending on the factory, the fixed cost ranges from 1,500 to 2,500 yuan/ton, so the minimum cost is about 12,500 yuan/ton (10,500 * 1.02 + 1,800) [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: After overbought, short at high levels according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR spread and butadiene cost) [4]. - Cross-variety: The NR-BR spread gradually enters a low-level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of expanding the spread in the future [4]. Butadiene Supply - In this cycle (20260123 - 0129), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,500 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month increase of 2.61%. During the week, the units of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Hainan Refining and Chemical remained shut down, and the units of Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical restarted one after another. The output of Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical was relatively limited, and the weekly output increased month-on-month. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 116,500 tons, a slight increase compared to this cycle. The units of Hainan Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical may gradually resume production [5]. Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain high in the medium term, and the demand for butadiene will remain at a high level year-on-year. In the short term, as the maintenance of butadiene units decreases, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain at a high level [6]. - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6]. - In terms of SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained unchanged, with limited changes [6]. Inventory - In this cycle (20260122 - 0128), the domestic butadiene inventory increased, and the total inventory of samples increased by 11.25% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.85% compared to last week. Some enterprises' inventory increased slightly due to the restart of sporadic units and market fluctuations. The inventory of sample ports increased by 17.39% compared to last week. Although the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises was normally digested and merchants expected a decrease in imports in February, there were imported ships arriving at the port during this cycle, which affected the phased increase in sample port inventory [6]. - According to the report on January 28, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 40,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. Although the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises was normally digested and merchants expected a certain decrease in imports in February, there were imported ships arriving at the port during this cycle, which affected the phased increase in port inventory [6]. Viewpoint - The prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, the domestic butadiene fundamentals are balanced. Butadiene will decline in the short term and has support in the medium term [5].

BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：短期EB高位震荡 | | • | 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃物流在 | | | | 春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 | | | • | 己内酰胺：CPL负 ...

2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...

BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 资料来源：隆众，国泰君安期货研究 纯苯投产仍然较多 下游投产进入尾声 | | | | | | | | | ABS | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | | 2026年上半年 | 1月 | | | | | 上海赛科 | 12 | | | | | 2月 | | | | | | | | | | | 3月 | | | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | | | | | 4月 | | | 山东辉航 | 12 | | | | | | | 5月 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月 | | | | | | | | | | 2026年下半年 | 7月 | | | | | | | 高桥扩能 | 7.5 | | | 8月 | 华锦阿美 | 60 | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | 英力士 | 30 | | | 9月 | | | 广西骅桥 | 40 | 卫星石化 | 20 | | | | | | | | 浙 ...