行业周报 | 有色金属 美伊冲突升级，持续看好贵金属+战略小金属 有色金属行业周报（2026.2.15-2026.3.1） 本周核心关注三：缅北武装冲突再起，引发市场锡矿供应担忧 据 SMM，2026 年 2 月中下旬以来，缅甸掸邦北部局势再度紧张，引发市场 对缅甸锡矿供应链的担忧。此次冲突区域为贵概（Kutkai）地区。由于曼相 矿区深处佤邦腹地，地理位置偏东，与贵概相距较远，暂未受到贵概战火的 直接波及，锡矿跨境发运也暂未面临实质性阻断风险。不过鉴于缅北整体地 缘政治形势复杂多变，市场仍需持续关注边境地区可能引发的连锁反应。 本周核心关注四：美国最高法院裁决判定依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收 的关税违法，但特朗普警告将采取更高关税措施 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。不过，美最高法院的 这项裁决仅限制总统通过《国际紧急经济权力法》实施关税，并未完全剥夺 其征收关税的权力。裁决公布后，特朗普 20 日转而依据《1974 年贸易法》 第 122 条，宣布加征"全球进口关税"，税率 10%，为期 150 天，以取代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with macroeconomic factors being the key drivers of metal price trends, including monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions [1][12]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have led to a steady increase in precious metal prices, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases. As of the end of January, China's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, marking 15 consecutive months of reserve expansion [2][13]. - Specific price movements include SHFE gold rising by 3.29% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, COMEX gold increasing by 4.24% to 5,296.40 USD per ounce, and London gold rising by 3.27% to 5,278.26 USD per ounce. Silver prices also saw significant increases, with SHFE silver up 16.34% to 23,019 CNY per kilogram [2][13]. - Recommended stocks in the precious metals sector include Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [3][14]. Base Metals - The copper sector is characterized by a strong supply-demand dynamic, with prices supported by strategic stockpiling and rigid supply. Recent data shows SHFE copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton, while LME copper rose by 2.93% to 13,343.5 USD per ton [4][15]. - In contrast, the aluminum sector faces a "macro positive, inventory pressure" scenario, with SHFE aluminum prices rising by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton, but facing seasonal supply pressures and increasing inventories [5][16]. - Recommended stocks for copper include Jincheng Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum, while for aluminum, recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [4][5][15][16]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector is experiencing strong demand and declining inventories, with lithium carbonate continuing to deplete. Recommended stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [7][19]. - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supplies, with companies extending their operations into downstream electric new energy sectors to enhance competitive advantages. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt [7][19]. Rare Earth and Strategic Metals - The rare earth sector has seen price increases post-holiday, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide rising significantly. The report highlights the investment value of rare earths as strategic resources [8][20]. - The tungsten sector is benefiting from supply constraints and strategic pricing models, with recommended stocks including Xiamen Tungsten [8][20]. - The uranium sector has seen long-term price increases due to supply rigidity and nuclear power development, with recommended stocks including China Uranium [9][21].

| 证券代码：603979 | 证券简称：金诚信 公告编号：2026-017 | | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113615 转债代码：113699 | 转债简称：金诚转债 转债简称：金 25 | | | 转债 | 金诚信矿业管理股份有限公司 关于签署日常经营合同的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 金诚信矿业管理股份有限公司驻塞尔维亚共和国子公司金诚信塞尔维亚矿 山建设有限公司（JCHX Kinsey Mining Construction DOO Bor）（简称"金诚信 塞尔维亚"）与业主方就塞尔维亚 JM 矿、ZB 金矿矿山井巷工程（第二标段）签 署补充协议，增加合同金额约人民币 211,066,981 元，并于近日取得经双方签字 盖章的合同文件，主要情况如下： 一、合同主要情况 金诚信塞尔维亚前期已承接了紫金矿业集团股份有限公司子公司塞尔维亚 紫金铜业有限公司 JM 矿、ZB 金矿矿山井巷工程（第二标段），有关建设工程施 工合同及补充协议主要情况详见公司分别于 2021 年 2 月 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 避险与通胀，金属迎全面重估 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S08805 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, and the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are likely to provide substantial support for their prices. In the industrial metals sector, there was a significant accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the inventory reduction speed post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be tested as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19]. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) [4] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE as of February 27. The supply side remains tight, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The focus is on the inventory reduction speed as production resumes [17][28][72] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, which may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing has recovered, and inventory levels have increased significantly [16][87][83]

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有色周报：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现 可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现可期。伊以冲突爆发后，继续升温的不可控风 险仍然较大，避险属性预期对贵金属价格将形成明显支撑。工业金属方面，春节期间铜 铝库存大幅累积，随着下游进入复工复产，旺季需求成色将迎来检验，重点关注节后复 工的去库速度，将决定节后工业品价格强度。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, with SHFE copper closing at 103,920 CNY/ton and LME copper at 13,296 USD/ton, reflecting increases of 1.55% and 2.56% respectively [1][15]. - Supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for copper prices to continue rising due to supply constraints and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 50.4% compared to February 12, 2026, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.0% [2][23]. - As of February 27, 2026, global inventory across major exchanges totaled 1.247 million tons, up 48.3% from February 13, 2026 [2][23]. Supply - China's electrolytic copper production in February 2026 was 1.1424 million tons, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 8.0% year-on-year [3][59]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 2,689 CNY/ton, down 410 CNY/ton from February 13, 2026 [2][53]. Demand - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 11.5 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 27.72% [3][70]. - Air conditioning production for March to May 2026 is projected to decrease by 6.1%, followed by increases of 2.9% and 4.9% in subsequent months [3][70]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 46% compared to February 13, 2026, with a total of 204,000 contracts [4][29]. - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven, suggesting a strong long-term investment value in this sector [2]. - Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, the price remains strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve initiatives from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but overall demand is anticipated to recover as downstream production resumes [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills, indicating a positive outlook for the nickel market [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8]. - Lithium prices are rising sharply due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are also showing strength as demand from precursor companies increases, with expectations of a stable recovery in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the benefits of precious metals in times of geopolitical uncertainty, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a 32,200-ton increase in global copper inventories but emphasizes that prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and ongoing demand [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a significant inventory build-up, but demand is expected to recover as production resumes post-holiday [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel mills [5]. - **Tin**: The report indicates that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns from Myanmar [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have increased by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, with demand from precursor companies showing signs of recovery [10].