行业 纸浆日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 13 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | | | --- | | | | P2605 21 28091 18/9 075 9% JEU | ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 ＃summary＃ 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 Arauco 公布 2 月报价，针叶浆银星平盘 710 美元/吨，阔叶浆明星上调至 600 美元/吨。据PPPC，11月世界20产浆国化学浆出货量同比-6.9%，针叶浆同比-7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of 21.04 RMB for the company, based on a 13X PE for 2027 [5]. Core Views - The company has effectively integrated its forestry, pulp, and paper operations, demonstrating strong profitability across industry cycles. Its core advantages stem from cost advantages through integrated operations, differentiated products, and precise market control, maintaining industry-leading profitability with an average ROE of 14.96% from 2015 to 2024 [3][15]. - The pulp supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, providing a cost support for paper prices to enter a moderate recovery phase. Domestic pulp production is nearing its peak, and limited new overseas capacity is anticipated, which may lead to sustained price recovery [3][30]. - The company is set to achieve significant capacity growth from 2025 to 2027, with 1.7 million tons of new production in packaging and cultural paper, ensuring a high degree of certainty in future earnings growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Profitability - The company has maintained a steady growth rate with a CAGR of 12.20% in revenue and 12.71% in net profit from 2015 to 2024, supported by a diversified product range and strategic geographic bases [15]. - The company operates three major production bases, ensuring a robust supply chain and market responsiveness, with a total pulp and paper capacity exceeding 12 million tons by the end of 2024 [15][19]. 2. Pulp Supply-Demand Dynamics - The domestic pulp production capacity is projected to reach 36.05 million tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 13.79% from 2021 to 2025, although the supply remains excessive, leading to price pressures [30]. - The report anticipates that the pulp price will stabilize and recover due to reduced new capacity and increased demand from domestic paper manufacturers [30][33]. 3. Integrated Operations and Cost Advantages - The company is expected to enhance its profitability through the concentrated production of self-manufactured pulp, which will further solidify its integrated operational advantages [4][19]. - The company’s self-supplied energy maintains a cost advantage of 300 RMB per ton, which is expected to become more pronounced as energy regulations tighten [4][19]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 471.22 billion, 473.10 billion, and 516.25 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 33.60 billion, 38.67 billion, and 45.24 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 8.34%, 15.11%, and 16.97% respectively [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of 21.04 RMB for the company, based on a 13x PE for 2027 [5]. Core Insights - The company has effectively integrated its forestry, pulp, and paper operations, demonstrating strong profitability across industry cycles. Its core advantages stem from cost advantages through integrated operations, differentiated products, and precise market control, maintaining a leading profitability level in the industry [3][15]. - The pulp supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, providing a moderate recovery in paper prices. Domestic pulp production is nearing its peak, and limited new overseas capacity is anticipated, which will support pulp prices and consequently paper prices [3][30]. - The company is set to achieve significant capacity growth from 2025 to 2027, with 1.7 million tons of packaging paper and 470,000 tons of cultural paper expected to come online, ensuring a high degree of certainty in future earnings growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Profitability - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.20% in revenue and 12.71% in net profit from 2015 to 2024, showcasing stable growth [15]. - The company operates three major production bases, ensuring a balanced supply to both northern and southern markets, with a total pulp capacity of nearly 5 million tons and paper capacity exceeding 7 million tons [15]. 2. Pulp Supply-Demand Dynamics - The domestic pulp production capacity is projected to reach 36.05 million tons by 2025, reflecting a 67.67% increase from 2021, while the growth rate of pulp production capacity significantly outpaces that of paper production [30]. - The report anticipates that the pulp price will experience a moderate recovery due to reduced supply from international producers and increased demand from domestic paper manufacturers [30][32]. 3. Integrated Operations and Cost Advantages - The company plans to launch 1.1 million tons of self-produced pulp, enhancing its integrated operations and ensuring stable profitability in the short term [4][19]. - The company benefits from a 300 RMB/ton energy cost advantage through its self-supplied power and steam, further solidifying its competitive edge [4][19]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 471.22 billion, 473.10 billion, and 516.25 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 33.60 billion, 38.67 billion, and 45.24 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 8.34%, 15.11%, and 16.97% respectively [5][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report from Founder Securities indicates that rising raw material prices and a strong currency are likely to improve profitability in the paper industry, particularly benefiting integrated pulp and paper companies with high self-sourcing ratios [1] - As of December 25, 2025, the Shenwan Paper Industry Index rose by 3.68%, ranking third among Shenwan's secondary industry indices for the day [1] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is expected to benefit pulp and paper companies on the cost side, as the industry relies on approximately 60% imported pulp, leading to optimized procurement costs due to the recent currency strengthening [1] Group 2 - Overseas pulp manufacturers have continued to raise prices, with Brazil's Suzano announcing a price increase of $20 per ton for the Asian market, marking the fourth price hike in 2025 [2] - Chile's Arauco also announced a $20 per ton increase for both softwood and hardwood pulp, providing cost support for domestic paper price increases [2] Group 3 - Domestic paper companies are issuing price increase notices in response to rising raw material costs, with companies like Sun Paper, Asia Pacific Forest Products, APP (China), and Bohui Paper raising prices by 200 yuan per ton starting January 1, 2026 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp and paper industry is undergoing significant structural changes, with broadleaf pulp gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp, and the industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity and compressed downstream profits [50][52][59] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Mill Capacity: Is It in the Clearance Stage? - **Market Structure of Commodity Pulp**: Global commodity pulp capacity is dominated by broadleaf pulp, accounting for about 50%, followed by softwood pulp at about 20%. Suzano, APP, and UPM are major players [5] - **Pulp Production Cost Curve**: The average cash cost of BHKP is 289 dollars/ton for 70% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 580 - 600 dollars/ton for 70% - 75% of the capacity. For BSKP, the average cash cost is 500 dollars/ton for 41% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 445 - 465 dollars/ton for 85% - 90% of the capacity [8] - **Company Performance Analysis** - **SUZANO**: In 25Q1 - Q3, revenue was 37 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Operating cost was 24.8 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 33%. Operating profit was 7.5 billion reais, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Net profit rebounded significantly mainly due to less derivative losses last year. Pulp revenue accounts for about 80% of the company's revenue [10][13] - **ARAUCO**: Q3 revenue was 1.5 billion dollars, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1%. Gross profit was 350 million dollars, with a gross profit margin of 23%. The company has been unprofitable since 2025, and Q3 net profit after non - recurring items was underwater. Pulp business EBITDA Margin is about 26.5% [22] - **Metsa Group**: Sales revenue increased, but profit reached a new low. In Q3, the operating profit margin was - 12%. Pulp sales continued to rise [26] - **Mercer**: In 25Q3, revenue was 458 million dollars, flat quarter - on - quarter. Gross profit was negative for two consecutive quarters. Net profit after non - recurring items was - 81 million dollars, the lowest since 2023. There was no substantial production cut [29][31][33] - **UPM**: Revenue continued to decline, with about 2.3 billion euros in 25Q3. Q3 gross profit margin was only 0.3%. Net profit was 18 million euros, with a net profit margin of 0.8%. ROCE in Q3 was 2.4%, the lowest in nearly two years [37][39][42] - **Solvency Analysis**: Most pulp mill asset - liability ratios are below 60%. As of Q3 2025, Mercer's asset - liability ratio was about 68.1%, and Suzano's was 60.7%. Most pulp mills' EBIT interest coverage ratios are above 1, but Arauco's was 0.36 and Mercer's was - 2.37 as of Q3 [45] 3.2 What Structural Changes Are Taking Place Currently? - **Difference between Softwood and Broadleaf Pulp Prices**: The price difference between softwood and broadleaf pulp has been widening. Broadleaf pulp capacity growth is faster than that of softwood pulp, and broadleaf pulp is gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp. The global consumption of commodity pulp is 67.7 million tons, of which about 64.6% is broadleaf pulp [50][52][53] - **Consumption Situation in Europe**: European softwood pulp monthly consumption is stable at 20 - 25 tons, far from recovering to the pre - energy - crisis level. European broadleaf pulp monthly consumption is above 50 tons and has returned to normal [55] - **Apparent Consumption and Paper Formula Adjustment**: Softwood pulp monthly apparent consumption is maintained at 60 - 80 tons, while broadleaf pulp monthly apparent consumption has increased from about 140 tons to 180 tons. The proportion of toilet paper and white cardboard has increased to about 35%, and the proportion of cultural paper has decreased. The pulp formula of toilet paper and double - glue paper has been deeply adjusted [58] - **Profit and Capacity Expansion of Finished Paper**: Downstream profits are continuously compressed, and the apparent profit per ton of many finished papers has turned negative. From 2025 to 2026, a large amount of new paper - making capacity is planned to be put into production, mainly in toilet paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard [59] - **Industrial Chain Inventory**: As of November, European softwood pulp inventory was 27 days, and broadleaf pulp inventory was 26 days. Pulp mill softwood pulp inventory days reached 48 days, a historical high for the same period, and broadleaf pulp inventory days were 45 days, flat month - on - month. Domestic pulp inventory has started to decline, with a structural surplus of softwood pulp [62] - **Stable Growth of Broadleaf Pulp Consumption**: The natural demand for BHKP may increase to 459,000 tons, with a CAGR of + 2.1%. Emerging markets contribute the main increment, and toilet paper and specialty paper are the main drivers [64] 3.3 Future Development Trends of the Pulp and Paper Industry Chain - **Industry Status**: The cumulative revenue of the paper - making industry was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. The profit was 31.22 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The industry loss area exceeded 30%, and the cumulative loss of loss - making enterprises reached 16.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10%, the highest in the same period in history. The SW paper - making industry index had a revenue of 125.7 billion yuan in 2025Q1 - Q3, a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 1.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 138%. The asset - liability ratio of listed paper enterprises exceeded 60%, and the current ratio and quick ratio fell below 1 [68][71] - **Integration of Forest, Pulp, and Paper**: Leading paper enterprises are implementing pulp - paper integration strategies, and some enterprises have a high degree of forest - pulp - paper integration. Domestic wood pulp consumption has increased from 9.5 million tons in 2015 to 26 million tons in 2024, and imported wood pulp has increased from 17.57 million tons to 25.95 million tons. The proportion of domestic wood pulp has increased from less than one - third to 50% [76] - **Integration Project Commissioning**: From 2025 to 2029, about 4.6 million tons of self - used BHKP capacity will be put into production in China. It is expected that the output of major wood - pulp - based finished papers will increase by 2.58 million tons in 2029, and self - used pulp will crowd out 2.66 million tons of commercial pulp demand for these paper types [80] - **Supply - Demand Changes of Commercial Pulp**: BHKP commercial pulp capacity will increase from 46.5 million tons to 50.5 million tons from 2024 to 2029E. Although demand continues to grow, capacity utilization will decline due to new capacity. The commissioning of integrated capacity is expected to reduce the demand for broadleaf commercial pulp by 4.4 million tons from 2024 to 2029 [83]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, but the upside space is limited. Investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [2][3][97]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Pulp Trend Review - **Periodic Price and Volatility Trends**: From the beginning of the year to February 5, the SP price oscillated upwards with a 4.64% increase due to factors like rising foreign offers and increased import costs. From February 5 to May 6, it dropped by 19.34% because of oversupply and tariff conflicts. From May 6 to October 10, it was in a sideways oscillation with a slight decline of 0.82%. From October 10 to December 5, it oscillated strongly with a 9.61% increase [6][7][8]. - **Volatility Performance**: The annual volatility of pulp futures in 2025 was lower than the previous year. There were three obvious increases in volatility, which were affected by factors such as US tariff policies, "anti - involution" policies, and concerns about insufficient delivery products [10][11]. 3.2 2026 Pulp Operation Logic - **Supply Side**: - **Overseas Supply**: In 2026, overseas pulp production capacity is expected to increase. The supply of coniferous pulp is expected to remain stable, while the key variable for broad - leaf pulp lies in the OKI project. The appreciation of the euro in 2025 had a negative impact on the demand for pulp in Europe. The proportion of pulp shipped to China may decrease in 2026, but the overall overseas supply pressure will not ease [14][19][20]. - **Domestic Supply**: In 2026, domestic pulp production capacity is expected to increase by about 345 tons, with the supply pressure concentrated in the fourth quarter. The price of domestic wood chips is stabilizing, and the import of recycled pulp is tightening, which is conducive to raising the price of domestic pulp and providing a bottom reference for the market [29][31][32]. - **Demand Side**: - **Demand Structure Changes**: The growth in demand for white cardboard and tissue paper is expected to offset the decline in demand for cultural paper, driving a slight increase in the demand for pulp. However, over - capacity and oversupply make it difficult to raise downstream paper prices, limiting the upward space for pulp prices [48][49][67]. - **Cost Structure Adjustment**: Due to the long - term high price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp, paper mills have been optimizing their pulp formulas. As the price difference narrows, some paper mills may increase the use of coniferous pulp [91]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Pulp Price Judgment in 2026**: The bottom of the pulp price is basically confirmed, but the upside is limited. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden Three, Silver Four" and "Golden Nine, Silver Ten" can be focused on, but the upward space during these periods may be restricted by factors such as inventory and supply [97][99]. - **Investment Outlook**: The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, and investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [3][102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas new - capacity addition is limited in 2025 - 2026. With major overseas broadleaf pulp mills announcing production cuts and conversions in the second half of this year, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down. European economic improvement may increase the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition in recent years may bring more supply next year, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [5][50]. - Regarding demand, although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production this year, terminal demand was insufficient, paper was in surplus, and paper mills' operating rates were low. The downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high port inventories. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, the demand for cultural paper is not expected to be strong, and packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [5][50]. - Overall, in the short - term, the improvement in pulp supply and demand is insufficient, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pulp price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait for the bottom - building and then consider long - position opportunities when the price is low. The breakthrough from the bottom depends on substantial improvement in supply and demand. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining cloth - needle warehouse receipts on the market [6][51]. Summary by Directory 2025 Pulp Market Review - The pulp price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by wide - range fluctuations at a low level throughout the year. It can be divided into five stages: from January to early February, it fluctuated strongly; from mid - February to early May, it declined continuously; from mid - May to July, it fluctuated widely; from August to early October, it hit a new low again; from mid - October to the present, it consolidated at a low level [12][13]. Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis Global Wood Pulp Supply - In 2025, overseas pulp mills had few large - scale new installations. The capacity ramp - up of Suzano's broadleaf pulp in Brazil was the main source of market pressure. The global broadleaf pulp shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, and the global softwood pulp shipments recovered rapidly in the third quarter. The shipments to Western Europe and North America decreased, while the demand from China increased significantly. In 2025, from January to September, the cumulative global softwood pulp shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative global broadleaf pulp shipments increased by 7.7% year - on - year. In September, pulp mills reduced inventories, but the overall inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the softwood pulp inventory pressure was higher than that of broadleaf pulp [16]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the pressure of overseas new - capacity release is expected to ease, and the global broadleaf pulp supply pressure may decrease marginally. The growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down, while the softwood pulp may still see a slight increase in the short - term due to high inventory and rising shipments [17]. European Consumption and Inventory - European demand remained weak. In October, the consumption of softwood pulp in Europe was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the consumption of broadleaf pulp was 562,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In October, the inventory days at European pulp mills remained at a historical high, suppressing the pulp price. Most European ports' inventories decreased month - on - month in September, and the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month, but it was still at a relatively high level in recent years [21]. China's Pulp Imports - In 2025, the cumulative global pulp shipments increased slightly year - on - year. Due to weak demand in the European and American markets, China became the main destination for increased shipments. From January to October, China's cumulative pulp imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The increase in China's pulp imports mainly came from the rise in broadleaf pulp imports, and the total softwood pulp imports also increased, but the increase was relatively small [24][25]. - In 2026, with the recovery of the European economy, the proportion of trade pulp sent to China may decline. The import pressure of broadleaf pulp may decrease, and the increase in softwood pulp imports is also expected to be limited [25]. China's Port Inventories - In 2025, China's pulp port inventories remained at a high level for a long time, indicating an oversupply in the domestic pulp market. Downstream paper mills had low willingness to replenish raw material inventories and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In November, the port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure remained. The combined pulp inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Baoding area in late November was about 2.0104 million tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous month [31]. China's Downstream Consumption - In recent years, the large - scale new - capacity addition in the domestic finished paper industry led to over - capacity and insufficient demand, squeezing the paper mills' profits. Some large enterprises limited or stopped production. In 2025, the new - capacity addition of white cardboard and offset paper still put pressure on their profits. Although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the overall paper production did not increase significantly. From January to October, the total output of four major types of paper was 31.02 million tons, almost the same as last year. In the long - term, the planned new - capacity addition of paper is still large, and the pulp demand is expected to increase slightly next year. But if the terminal orders do not improve, the upside of the pulp price will be limited [34][35]. 2026 Pulp Market Outlook - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe may increase, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition may bring more supply, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [50]. - Demand: Terminal demand is insufficient, and paper mills' operating rates are low. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [50]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the pulp market will fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities when the price is low [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on pulp is "oscillation", with a trading strategy of "11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to rising foreign market quotes, low pulp futures valuation, and weak commodity macro - sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the US. Consecutive increases in foreign market quotes strongly support domestic pulp prices [4] - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills issued price increase letters, and the implementation remains to be confirmed [4] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2084,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%, showing a de - stocking trend [4] - **Valuation**: The basis of broad - leaf pulp strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures entered a low - valuation range [4] - **Investment and Trading**: The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is a 11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage, and attention should be paid to commodity macro - sentiment [4] 3.2 PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: Pulp futures fell with the commodity macro - sentiment last week, but the spot price only slightly declined, and the basis strengthened significantly. There is still an upward driving force after the second round of foreign market quote increase [7] - **Spot**: The price of broad - leaf pulp is stable, while the price of softwood pulp decreased. The price of softwood pulp Silver Star is 5700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the price of softwood pulp Buzhen is 4980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu is 4150 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton [16] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco's quote for softwood pulp Silver Star was $720/ton, and the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star decreased by 50% with a price of $520/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [21] - **Total Holdings**: As of August 29, 2025, the total holdings of pulp futures contracts were 360,884 lots, an 18.35% increase from the previous week; the holdings of the main pulp futures contract were 210,805 lots, a 13.86% increase from the previous week [22] 3.3 PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease; the softwood pulp import volume was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease; the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [5] - **Domestic Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities decreased. As of August 28, 2025, the port inventory was 2.084 million tons, a 2.25% decrease; the delivery warehouse inventory was 247,500 tons, a 1.66% decrease [5] - **Overseas Inventory**: Pulp mill inventories increased, and European port inventories decreased. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [46] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Prices**: The prices of four major wood - pulp papers decreased. As of August 29, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4825 yuan/ton, a 3.4% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 6% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3930 yuan/ton, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease [51] - **Output**: In July 2025, the output of paper products increased month - on - month. The output of offset paper was 737,000 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase; the output of coated paper was 381,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase; the output of tissue paper was 786,000 tons, a 1% month - on - month increase; the output of white cardboard was 1.003 million tons, a 3.5% month - on - month increase [56] - **Inventory**: The inventories of cultural and living papers decreased, while the inventory of white cardboard increased. As of July 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.73 million tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of coated paper was 1.178 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 390,000 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2781 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase [61] - **Offset Paper**: As of August 29, 2025, the total offset paper inventory was 1.728 million tons, a 0.7% week - on - week increase; the output was 204,700 tons, a 3000 - ton week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 55.6%, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease; the production cost was 4885 yuan/ton, a 0.05% week - on - week decrease; the gross profit was - 42.74 yuan/ton, a 26.4 - yuan week - on - week increase [67][72][75] - **International Demand**: European pulp demand is recovering, while US demand is weakening. In July 2025, the available days of European softwood pulp inventory were 27.2, a 1.3 decrease month - on - month; the available days of broad - leaf pulp inventory were 24.1, a 2.5 decrease month - on - month. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease; the inventory - to - sales ratio in June 2025 was 1.06, a 0.01 increase month - on - month [78] 3.4 PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 29, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian softwood pulp was - 38 yuan/ton, an 84 - yuan increase from the previous week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, a 104 - yuan increase from the previous week; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 378 yuan/ton, a 72 - yuan decrease from the previous week [88] - **Import Profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 129 yuan/ton, a 76 - yuan decrease from the previous week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase from the previous week [92] - **Needle - Broad Spread**: As of August 29, 2025, the needle - broad spread in Shandong, China, was 1562 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from the previous week; in July 2024, the needle - broad import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [94]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of global supply shocks and changes in supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets on domestic pulp prices in China, highlighting the long-term benefits for integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy capabilities [1]. Group 1: Domestic Pulp Price Dynamics - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic prices. The demand for commodity pulp accounts for less than 40% of total wood pulp demand, with softwood pulp making up 35% and hardwood pulp 55%, which has seen rapid growth in recent years [2]. - China has become the largest buyer in the global market, increasing its market share from 12% to 44% over the past 20 years, giving it significant bargaining power. The fluctuation in domestic wood pulp demand and the rising self-sufficiency in pulp production also impact global commodity pulp demand [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Price Influences - Since 2017, an average of 2 million tons of pulp capacity has been permanently shut down each year, with supply reductions expected to exceed 2 million tons annually post-2020 due to market factors, strikes, equipment failures, and natural disasters. The rising costs of wood pulp in Europe and America have widened the price gap between softwood and hardwood pulp [3]. - The structural changes in pulp usage are expected to lower long-term average costs, with hardwood pulp demand increasing by 10 percentage points to 74%, and the use of non-wood pulp materials like bamboo pulp rising to 12.1% in domestic life paper production [3]. Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Trends - The cost curve for pulp production is primarily determined by wood costs, with eucalyptus becoming more prevalent and driving down hardwood costs. However, domestic real estate demand is suppressing wood prices, which may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price increases [4]. - Logistics costs account for 10-20% of total costs, and leading pulp manufacturers can optimize costs through strategic location choices. Energy costs represent 15-20%, with top manufacturers able to sell surplus electricity [4].