多组数据见证 我国消费结构持续优化 编者按 消费关系到经济发展,也关系着民生 福祉。1至10月份,社会消费品零售总额 同比增长4.3%,服务零售额增长5.3%。 在国庆、中秋长假和促消费政策等带动 下,市场销售总体稳定,消费结构继续优 化,新兴消费持续壮大。 服务零售稳中有升 在扩大服务消费政策持续发力 假日经济效应等因素带动下 服务零售额增长有所加快 1至10月份 服务零售额 同比增长 5.3% 比1至9月份加快0.1个百分点 高于同期商品零售额增速 0.9个百分点 旅行相关消费增势良好 10月份 餐饮收入同比增长3.8% 增速比9月份加快2.9个百分点 限额以上单位客房收入增速加快2.0个百分点 1至10月份 文体休闲 交通出行 旅游咨询 服务类 服务类 租赁服务类 零售额 均保持10%以上较快增长 消费品市场平稳增长 消费品以旧换新政策继续显效 对相关商品销售带动作用持续显现 10月份 限额以上单位 通讯器材类 商品零售额 同比增长23.2% 10月份 假日经济效应凸显 "乡村游""古镇游"持续升温 乡村消费品零售额同比增长4.1% 增速比9月份加快0.1个百分点 1至10月份 包含镇区和乡村的 县乡消 ...

Group 1 - The demand for home appliances has significantly improved, with the white goods sector showing a rebound in valuation. In the first nine months of 2025, air conditioning sales reached 90.81 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy implemented in July 2024 has positively impacted sales, particularly in the kitchen appliance sector, where retail sales of range hoods and gas stoves saw year-on-year increases of 14.9% and 15.7%, respectively [2][3][24] - The overall valuation of the home appliance sector has declined, but it is currently at a near-bottom level, indicating high cost-effectiveness for investment [2][3][29] Group 2 - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. **Dividend**: Leading white and black goods companies exhibit low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth, making them attractive for investment [4] 2. **Technology**: Core component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging tech fields such as robotics and data center cooling, seeking cross-industry transformation [4] 3. **Overseas Expansion**: The penetration rate of new consumer categories, such as clean appliances, is increasing, indicating substantial growth potential [4][5] Group 3 - The white goods sector is expected to maintain stable growth due to the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy, with head companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree being recommended for investment [4][5] - The kitchen appliance sector shows a clear division in performance, with traditional categories benefiting from government subsidies while new categories like integrated stoves face challenges [24][25] - The export market is experiencing a gradual decline in demand, with air conditioning exports dropping by 12.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, influenced by previous tariff policies and high base effects [3][9][18]

点评：龙头家电ETF（159730）今日上午涨幅达到0.09%，该ETF规模为0.33亿份，半日成交金额为560.69万元，其追踪的是国证龙头家电指数。 国证龙头家电指数反映沪深北交易所中家电行业优质上市公司的市场表现。该指数将权重更多地配置在细分领域的龙头企业中，如清洁电器、厨房电器以及 家电零部件逆变器等细分领域。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价(元) | 涨幅 (%) | 总金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512880 | 证券ETF | 1.186 | -2.55 | 24. | | 588200 | 科创芯片ETF | 2.162 | -3.44 | 22. | | 512000 | 券商ETF | 0.566 | -2.58 | 11. | | 515880 | 通信ETF | 2.479 | -4.58 | 10. | | 562500 | 机器人ETF | 0.933 | -1.27 | 10. | | 512480 | 半导体ETF | 1.334 | -3.26 | 10. | | 159755 | 电池ETF | 1.027 | -4.91 | ...

乘用车：11月1-16日，全国乘用车市场零售88.6万辆，同比去年11月同期下降14%，较上月同期下降6%，今年以来累计零售2,014.2万辆，同比增长7%；11 月1-16日，全国乘用车厂商批发102.1万辆，同比去年11月同期下降14%，较上月同期增长14%，今年以来累计批发2,479.5万辆，同比增长11%。 新能源：11月1-16日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售55.4万辆，同比去年11月同期增长2%，较上月同期增长7%，今年以来累计零售1,070.3万辆，同比增长 21%；11月1-16日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发61.8万辆，同比去年11月同期增长1%，较上月同期增长17%，今年以来累计批发1,267.5万辆，同比增长 28%。 渗透率：11月1-16日，全国乘用车市场新能源零售渗透率62.5%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发渗透率60.6%。11月第一周全国纯燃料轻型车生产33.1万辆， 同比去年11月同期下降3%，较上月同期增长59%；11月第一周混合动力与插混总体生产18.5万辆，同比去年11月同期下降8%，较上月同期增长27%。 智通财经APP获悉，11月19日，乘联分会发布周度分析指出，11月1- ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a continued decline in the growth rate of social retail sales in October 2025, with expectations for more fiscal policies to support domestic demand and a recovery in consumer spending [1] Monthly Observation - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points from September [1] - The consumption structure showed marginal recovery in food, beverages, tobacco, and catering due to holiday spending, while the "trade-in" policy's diminishing effect and a high base from the previous year led to negative growth in appliances and automotive categories [1] - Catering and above-limit catering revenue increased by 3.8% and 3.7% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 2.9 percentage points and 5.3 percentage points from September, supported by holiday travel [1] - Sub-sectors such as grain and oil food, beverages, and tobacco saw year-on-year increases of 9.1%, 7.1%, and 4.1%, respectively, with significant month-on-month improvements [1] Quarterly Observation - The growth rate of social retail sales is expected to continue declining in Q4 2025, although there may be marginal improvements in the growth rates of catering and food and beverage sectors [2] - In October 2025, the retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, primarily due to the weakening effect of subsidy policies and a high base from the previous year [2] - The growth rates for grain and oil food, beverages, and tobacco in October 2025 improved compared to Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in food and beverage consumption [2] Industry Observation - The liquor industry is still in a bottoming phase, with structural differentiation in consumption during the October holiday, showing recovery in mass banquets and family gatherings, while business consumption remains weak [3] - The snack industry demonstrates resilience due to its high-frequency demand, supported by holiday consumption, with leading companies enhancing competitiveness through product innovation and channel expansion [3]

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 2025 年 11 月 16 日 各品牌陆续发布双十一战报，九阳 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周家电板块跑赢沪深 300 指数。本周申万家用电器板块指数上涨 1.1%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 1.1%。重点公司方面，九阳股份（26.6%）、莱克电气（12.2%）、海信视 像（7.1%）领涨；三花智控（-12.3%）、荣泰健康（-2.6%）、科沃斯（-1.5%）领跌。 ⚫ 行业动态：1）石头科技发布双十一战报：登顶清洁电器品牌 TOP1，扫地机市场份额 TOP1，达到 34.75%，洗地机市场份额 TOP2，达到 25.02%，净销售额同比增长 408.52%。吸尘器净销售额同比增长 2295.52%。2）九阳豆业"哈基米豆浆"引领热 潮：九阳豆业推出名为"哈基米南北绿豆豆浆"的植物饮料并在消费市场掀起热潮，九 阳豆浆旗舰店所属公司为杭州 ...

Core Insights - The automotive market in China is experiencing strong growth driven by government policies promoting consumption, with significant recovery observed in both truck and passenger vehicle markets in October [1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed negative growth in October due to slower wholesale transmission, while manufacturer sales remained strong due to exports and inventory increases [1] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment is performing well, with structural growth in the commercial vehicle market driven by electrification [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The automotive market is expected to see a divergence in trends between passenger and commercial vehicles by 2025, with passenger vehicle growth projected at 13% due to policy support [2][4] - In the first ten months of 2025, total automotive sales reached 27.52 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12% [6] - October 2025 saw total automotive sales of 3.32 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9% [6] Group 2: Company Performance - There is a significant performance divergence among major automotive groups, with state-owned enterprises facing challenges while companies like BYD and Chery are performing well [9][12] - In October, manufacturers like Geely and BYD showed strong month-on-month performance, while SAIC Volkswagen faced substantial year-on-year adjustments [15] - The market is witnessing a shift where private enterprises are increasingly replacing state-owned enterprises as industry leaders, with companies like Geely, BYD, and Chery maintaining high growth rates [12][13] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - In the first ten months of 2025, new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 12.07 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% [25] - October 2025 saw new energy passenger vehicle sales of 1.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18% [25] - The growth in new energy vehicles is supported by scrappage subsidies, manufacturer price reductions, and the introduction of new models [25] Group 4: Traditional Vehicles - Traditional fuel passenger vehicle sales in 2023 remained stable at 16.66 million units compared to 2022, but are projected to decline by 10% in 2024 [30] - The market for traditional vehicles is under pressure due to ongoing declines, although there has been some recent recovery from June to October [30] Group 5: Commercial Vehicles - In 2023, total truck sales reached 3.54 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19% [39] - October 2025 saw truck sales of 310,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [39] - The commercial vehicle market is experiencing strong performance from leading manufacturers, particularly in the electric truck segment [41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Data Summary - In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year respectively [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant effects, with retail sales of furniture increasing by 21.3%, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as cultural and office supplies, growing by 25.3% and 19.9% respectively, indicating a notable acceleration compared to the previous year [1] - As of September 10, over 8.3 million applications for the "old-for-new" car policy have been submitted nationwide, averaging over 30,000 applications per day [1] Case Study - In a Beijing auto dealership, various cars displayed prominent subsidy tags, attracting many customers. A customer noted that the combination of new energy vehicle subsidies and "old-for-new" incentives resulted in a total discount of 20,000 yuan [2] - The fourth quarter has seen the allocation of 69 billion yuan in national subsidies, completing the distribution of 300 billion yuan in central funds for the "old-for-new" policy this year, which supports the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival [2] - The combination of "old-for-new" and national subsidies has significantly stimulated consumer enthusiasm, leading to a vibrant consumption market and an optimization of consumption structure, with high-efficiency and smart home appliances seeing sustained high growth in retail sales [2] Expert Commentary - According to an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 330 million people have applied for the "old-for-new" policy from January to August, driving related sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan and supporting a 4.5% growth in retail sales of consumer goods [3] - The policy has notably promoted the upgrade of consumer goods, invigorating the market and improving residents' quality of life, while also accelerating product and capital turnover for enterprises [3] - The current period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, with an emphasis on enhancing consumer capacity and demand, necessitating local governments to implement measures to stimulate consumption and optimize policies across various dimensions [3]

● 本报记者 李嫒嫒 陈士华表示，明年是"十五五"开局之年，提振消费依然是重点工作之一。自去年下半年以来，汽车"以 旧换新"政策带动效果显著，建议明年继续优化实施相关政策，并尽早发布实施细则，稳定市场预期， 助力行业平稳运行。 中汽协副秘书长陈士华表示，10月，车企抢抓年底政策切换窗口期，生产供给保持较快节奏。企业新品 继续密集上市、行业综合治理工作稳步推进，汽车市场延续良好发展态势，月度产销创同期新高。其 中，乘用车市场稳健增长，商用车市场持续向好，新能源汽车较快增长，对外贸易呈现较好韧性。 今年以来，我国新能源汽车产销量保持快速增长态势。1至10月，新能源汽车产销累计完成1301.5万辆 和1294.3万辆，同比分别增长33.1%和32.7%。 总体来看，1至10月，汽车产销累计完成2769.2万辆和2768.7万辆，同比分别增长13.2%和12.4%。 "今年前十个月汽车产销总体增长速度超出年初预期，'两新'政策对市场的拉动作用非常明显。预计， 今年汽车产销量均会超过3400万辆，达到历史新高。"陈士华说。 11月11日，中汽协发布数据显示，2025年10月份，我国新能源汽车产销同比保持快速增长，新能源 ...