| 市场数据：2025 年 8 月 | 25 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | 13.27 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | 13.76/9.59 | | 流通A股/总股本（亿）： | | 19.04/19.10 | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | | 252.68 | | 总市值（亿）： | | 253.48 | | 年 基础数据：2025 | 月 6 | 日 30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益(元)： | | | 0.40 | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | | | 0.40 | | 每股净资产(元)： | | | 9.91 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | | | 4.04 | 资料来源：最闻 李旋坤 执业登记编码：S0760523110004 邮箱：lixuankun@sxzq.com 王金源 执业登记编码：S0760525080001 邮箱：wangjinyuan@sxzq.com 氮肥 鲁西化工（000830.SZ） 买入-B(维持) 营收稳健增长，盈利水平有望触底回升 2025 年 8 月 26 ...

2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘高位震荡，短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：近月合约持续上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...

2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：油价稍偏强，裂解愈回落 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 17 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 23 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 26 | | 燃料油：涨势明显，短期强势延续 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏弱，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：弱势震荡 | ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,660 | 11,775 | -115 -17547 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 89,334 | 106,881 | | | | （10合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 35,755 | 38,436 | -2681 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 522,802 | 630,298 | -107496 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 90 | -25 | 115 | | | 月差 | BR09-BR10 | | 20 | -20 | 40 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,500 | 11,550 | -50 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,600 | 11,650 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals at ports eases the tight supply situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, and the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase [3]. - In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling butadiene rubber at low valuations. This is because the "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the rubber sector and butadiene fundamentals are neutral. Synthetic rubber has been de - stocking slightly for several weeks, and the sales pressure of butadiene factories is not significant, providing support for pricing [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 11,715 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 67,123 lots to 169,064 lots, the open interest decreased by 89 lots to 35,691 lots, and the turnover increased by 372,052 ten - thousand yuan to 977,025 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis difference between Shandong butadiene and the futures main contract increased by 25 to - 65, the monthly spread BR09 - BR10 remained unchanged at - 10. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, the Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 160 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. Most overhauled butadiene rubber plants restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price increased due to capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the downstream's price - pressing procurement led to slow terminal sales, with a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report on August 21, 2025, covering various energy and chemical products [1]. 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual product ratings: - Bullish: p-Xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Caustic Soda [2][4][11][42] - Bearish: Glass, Soda Ash [52][65] - Neutral: Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][15][18][34][38][47][54][59][62][67][79][82] - Hold 10 short positions (discretionary): Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2] 2. Core Views - **p-Xylene, PTA, MEG**: p-Xylene has cost support and improving demand, PTA has strong cost support and improving terminal demand, and MEG has reduced imports and inventory, all expected to be bullish in the short term [4][9][10]. - **Rubber**: It shows a volatile and bullish trend, with futures prices rising and inventory decreasing [11][12][14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increased butadiene supply and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [15][17]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and bearish, with a decline in cracking spread, increasing production in September, and decreasing capacity utilization [18][32]. - **LLDPE**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term influence from industry sentiment, decreasing maintenance in August, and improving demand in the future [34][35]. - **PP**: It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious due to uncertain cost and policy factors [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated bullishly, with increasing demand from alumina and export support, despite potential supply limitations [42][44]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to trade in a range, with weak demand and limited support from the paper market [47][48]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable, with general market trading and limited improvement in downstream demand [51][52]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increasing port inventory and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [54][57][58]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term, with increasing inventory and support from export information [59][60][61]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range, with downstream inventory at a medium-high level and limited replenishment power [62][63]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with weak market trends, stable production, and general downstream demand [65]. - **LPG, Propylene**: They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes, and the PDH operating rate has increased [67]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure, due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory [79]. - **Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night with reduced short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly with a falling high - low sulfur spread [82]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions discretionarily, with declining European shipping rates [84]. 3. Summary by Product p-Xylene, PTA, MEG - **p-Xylene**: Yesterday's closing price was 6844, up 1.03%. PX9 - 1 closed at 88. The spot price was 838 dollars/ton, up 2.83 dollars. Overnight crude oil inventory decreased, and PX is expected to rebound with cost support and improving demand. Pay attention to the 11 - 01 positive spread [5][9]. - **PTA**: Yesterday's closing price was 4778, up 0.93%. PTA9 - 1 closed at - 56. The spot price was stable at 4690 yuan/ton. It has strong cost support, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread can be held [5][8][10]. - **MEG**: Yesterday's closing price was 4477, up 1.20%. MEG9 - 1 closed at - 50. The spot price was 4502 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. Korean petrochemicals will cut capacity, and MEG is expected to be bullish in the short term with reduced imports and inventory. The 9 - 1 spread can be operated in the - 50 - 0 range [5][8][10]. Rubber - Yesterday's day - session closing price was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan, and the night - session closing price was 15,755 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The day - session closing price of butadiene rubber was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The inventory of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [15]. Asphalt - BU2509 closed at 3,493 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and BU2510 closed at 3,454 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [18]. LLDPE - L2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The market price continued to decline slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [34]. PP - PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The market price was weak. It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious [38][39]. Caustic Soda - The 11 - contract futures price was 2698 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton. It should be treated bullishly due to increasing demand [42][44]. Pulp - The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The demand from the paper market was weak. It is expected to trade in a range [48]. Glass - FG601 closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 4.36%. The spot price was stable with general trading. It shows a bearish trend [52]. Methanol - The main contract closed at 2,424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The port inventory increased. It is expected to trade within a range [55][57]. Urea - The closing price was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The enterprise inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term [59][60]. Styrene - The 2509 contract closed at 7,261 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The downstream inventory was at a medium - high level. It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range [62][63]. Soda Ash - SA2601 closed at 1,309 yuan/ton, down 5.01%. The spot market was weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile [65]. LPG, Propylene - PG2509 closed at 3,890 yuan/ton, up 0.99%, and PL2601 closed at 6,446 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The PDH operating rate increased. They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes [67]. PVC - The 01 - contract futures price was 5008 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton. It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - FU2510 closed at 2,718 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, and LU2510 closed at 3,446 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - EC2510 closed at 1,355.0, down 1.33%. The European shipping rates declined. Hold 10 short positions discretionarily [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term prices are approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation and will gradually face pressure, while the medium - term trend remains range - bound. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals eases the tight port situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, so the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling at the low valuation of butadiene rubber. There are two main reasons: first, the anti - involution policy, although not radical in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; second, the fundamentals of the rubber sector and butadiene are neutral, and the continuous de - stocking of synthetic rubber for several weeks and the lack of obvious sales pressure on butadiene rubber factories support the pricing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,840 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 101,941 lots (up 40,936 lots), the open interest was 35,780 lots (up 4,178 lots), and the trading volume was 604.973 million yuan (up 244.592 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 90 (down 40), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 (private) was - 10 (down 5). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) all increased by 100 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,350 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) increased by 100 yuan to 11,350 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan to 9,350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 9,450 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - As of August 13, 2025 (week 33), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. Due to the unstable output of previously shut - down devices and the influence of stronger raw materials and natural rubber, the inventory level continued to decline [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [3].

2025年08月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏弱，但终端需求改善，月差仍偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：弱现实强预期，月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：本周到港偏低，基差走强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短线回调，中期仍为区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：出货未见好，原油难偏多 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待，但需注意近月仓单情况 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：短期消息面驱动，上方空间收窄 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：近月挤仓风险仍在 | 22 | | 丙烯：成本支撑偏弱 | 22 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油：弱势震荡走势为主，短期波动缩小 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅盘整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理，1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term port inventory of methanol is accelerating, and the 01 contract is weak in the short - term under the premium situation, but remains in a mid - term shock pattern. The main reasons for the mid - term shock are the support of anti - involution policies, the strong fundamentals of the MA2601 contract in the fourth quarter, and the expected restart of some MTOs in September [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on August 19, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the trading volume was 438,253 lots, down 48,430 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 665,628 lots, up 42,183 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,968 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 1051.859 million yuan, down 130.759 million yuan; the basis was - 94, down 7; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 103, down 7 [1] - In the spot market, on August 19, 2025, the ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Spot News - The report does not provide specific content in this part Futures Research - As of August 13, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10.41%. The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, with 236,000 tons of visible unloading of foreign vessels and many non - visible unloading. The inventory in East China increased due to stable supply despite increased提货, and the inventory in South China increased significantly due to concentrated arrivals [3] - The trend strength of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, and the upside space is narrowing [2][4]. - The port tightness pattern of butadiene has been alleviated, and it is expected to pull back in the short - term and enter a weak pattern in the medium - to - long term. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the upper pressure of synthetic rubber is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The nr - br spread fluctuates in the short - term [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber continued to decline. The output was 27,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. It is expected to increase in the next cycle. The overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. As of August 13, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18% [6]. - **Valuation**: The static fundamental valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline slightly. The upper valuation limit is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased. This period's output was 105,300 tons, a 2.73% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 69.69%, a 0.07% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Demand**: Synthetic rubber has a high demand for butadiene, and the demand for ABS is constant with limited increments. The demand for SBS maintains rigid procurement with little change [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 11.70% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 38.78% week - on - week. As of August 13, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than that of downstream industries. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. - **Supply - side -开工率**: The butadiene weekly operating rate shows fluctuations, and many enterprises have experienced shutdowns and restarts [18][19]. - **Demand - side**: The production capacity of downstream industries such as butadiene - based cis - and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS is expanding [22][31]. - **Inventory - side**: The butadiene weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory show different trends over time [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows fluctuations. Many enterprises' devices are in different operating states, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and restart [40][41]. - **Cost and profit**: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [43][44][45]. - **Import and export**: The monthly import and export volume of butadiene rubber shows fluctuations [46][47]. - **Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [51][52][53]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry shows different trends in inventory and operating rate [55][56].