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债市晴雨表:基金久期持平
CMS· 2025-12-28 03:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the bond market from multiple aspects, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, and presents the changes in various indicators last week [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 112.3, down 0.3 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 47.7%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Institutional Duration - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.66 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 3.28 years, down 0.08 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 7.57 years, up 0.15 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 13.0 trillion yuan, up 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.0 trillion yuan, up 0.2 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 11.3%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.31%, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.5 Allocation Power - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 11.2 billion yuan, up 2.4 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.72%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.0, down 0.4 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 3.0bp to - 68.8bp, reflecting an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of rural commercial banks was - 27.1%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of insurance companies was 2.2%, down 52.7 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of money market funds was - 45.5%, down 91.6 percentage points from the previous value; the allocation index of insurance second - tier perpetual bonds was - 17.2%, down 8.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription - Last week, the full - field multiple of treasury bonds fell 0.1 times to 2.7 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 4.1 times to 15.2 times; the full - field multiple of CDB bonds was nan times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB and treasury bonds narrowed 0.8bp to 14.1bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds narrowed 2.8bp to 38.9bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed 0.2bp to - 7.5bp; the spread between 10 - year local and treasury bonds was 20.8bp, the same as the previous value [2].
债券研究周报:经济工作会议后的债市情绪如何?-20251215
Guohai Securities· 2025-12-15 11:34
Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the bond market sentiment after the economic work conference from December 9th to December 15th, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - During the period from December 9th to December 15th, the sentiment of bond market sellers increased slightly, while that of buyers continued to decline, showing a K-shaped divergence. The market divergence has increased, and the year - end bond allocation market is still weak, waiting for the catalytic effect of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted index was 0.21, up 0.13 from December 2nd to December 8th. Some institutions' views turned bullish. Currently, 7 institutions are bullish, 15 are neutral, and 2 are bearish. 29% of institutions are bullish due to insufficient domestic demand, slow credit and social financing data, expectations of further easing policies, oversold technical indicators, and released negative factors. 63% are neutral as the market is insensitive to positive factors, the stock market attracts funds, and bond investors are cautious. 8% are bearish as the bond market's rebound may end, and price recovery and the equity market's spring rally may suppress the bond market [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted sentiment index was 0.00, lower than that from December 2nd to December 8th. The sentiment index continued to decline. Currently, 4 institutions are bullish, 17 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 16% of institutions are bullish because of increased economic fundamental pressure, stronger expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and positive signals from the economic work conference. 68% are neutral as the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still exists, potential regulatory policy changes increase market uncertainty, and traditional allocation funds lack motivation. 16% are bearish as there is a policy vacuum at the turn of the year, lack of policy support, and capital games overriding fundamental logic [13].
债券研究周报:固收买方开始看多债市-20251201
Guohai Securities· 2025-12-01 11:32
Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on December 1, 2025, focusing on the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers from November 25 to December 1 [4]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 25 - December 1, the bond market seller sentiment declined slightly, the divergence decreased, the buyer sentiment turned optimistic, and the bearish views of both buyers and sellers disappeared this week. The year - end front - running market in the bond market is approaching, and the allocation value has emerged as the interest rate rises to the top of the central bank's desirable range. However, sellers are more cautious about the front - running market due to the sluggish institutional allocation willingness [4]. Section Summaries Seller Perspective - The bond market sentiment declined slightly. Based on the statistics of 20 seller institutions, the sentiment declined, many views turned neutral, and there were no bearish views this week. Currently, sellers are mostly neutral - bullish, with 10% being bullish, 20% being moderately bullish, and 70% being neutral [5]. - 10% of institutions are bullish, believing that strong expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, falling housing prices, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle are favorable factors [5]. - 20% of institutions are moderately bullish, citing the year - end "calendar effect", institutional allocation demand, front - running and increasing positions, and weak economic fundamentals as positive factors [5]. - 70% of institutions are neutral, considering that factors such as policy uncertainty, risk preference, stock - bond seesaw, monetary policy attitude, and asset shortage are intertwined, and the market may enter a low - volatility shock state [5]. Buyer Perspective - The sentiment index turned from negative to positive. Based on the views of 25 fixed - income buyer institutions, the number of moderately bullish views increased, and there were no bearish views. Overall, buyers are neutral - bullish, with 36% being moderately bullish and 64% being neutral [6]. - 36% of institutions are moderately bullish, believing that the interest rate has reached the upper limit of the desirable range, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the risk preference may decline [6]. - 64% of institutions are neutral, citing policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, insufficient odds, high operation difficulty, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period [6].
债券研究周报:债市情绪处于分歧之中-20251124
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-24 10:31
Report Overview - The report is a bond research weekly report dated November 24, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 18 - 24, the bond market seller sentiment rose while the buyer sentiment declined again, with the two diverging, and the seller view divergence index also rose to a relatively high level. Despite the optimistic factors brought by the calendar effect, market sentiment remains contradictory and institutional caution persists [5]. Section Summaries 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted index was 0.42, up 0.04 from November 11 - 17, and the proportion of market - bullish views increased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 7 are moderately bullish, 14 are neutral, and 1 is moderately bearish. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing factors such as economic fundamentals pressure, monetary policy easing expectations, seasonal patterns, and institutional scramble for allocation. 29% are moderately bullish, due to the deepening asset - shortage pattern, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and the year - end "calendar effect". 58% are neutral, as there is a tug - of - war between bullish and bearish factors, bond yields are in a range - bound oscillation, the market is in a "policy vacuum period", and the 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate within the regulatory - approved range. 4% are moderately bearish, believing that the main logic is the lack of incremental funds in the bond market, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may strengthen, and the bond market's easing environment is hard to sustain [6][13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted sentiment index was - 0.08, down from November 11 - 17. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bearish views: 2 are moderately bullish, 18 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 8% of institutions are moderately bullish, based on monetary policy easing expectations, recovery in allocation demand, and potential decline in risk appetite. 75% are neutral, due to policy uncertainty, the asset - shortage pattern, a capped - and - floored market, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, believing that policies fall short of expectations, structural interest rate cuts hit liquidity expectations, and policy guidance may divert funds to the equity market [7][14].
债券研究周报:债市卖方情绪回归谨慎-20251117
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-17 12:01
Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on November 17, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - From November 11th to 17th, the bond market seller sentiment continued to decline, and the buyer sentiment remained negative. The divergence of seller views slightly increased. The bond market was in a policy vacuum period, and the driving force of positive factors was insufficient. After the release of the third - quarter monetary policy report, the market's expectation of the interest - rate cut time was postponed, and the sentiment entered a wait - and - see period [4] Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.38, a decrease of 0.11 compared with November 4th - 10th. The proportion of bullish views decreased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 5 are moderately bullish, and 17 are neutral. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing weak financial data, continuous decline in social financing growth, declining bank liability costs, and the continuation of the asset shortage pattern. 21% are moderately bullish, based on expectations of monetary policy easing, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and downward space for yields. 71% are neutral, as the market is temporarily in a "policy vacuum period", lacking a clear single main line to drive interest - rate breakthroughs, and institutions may take profit, while the year - end rush - to - buy demand of banks and insurance may support the market [11] 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was - 0.03, up from November 4th - 10th. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bearish views: 4 are moderately bullish, 20 are neutral, and 5 are bearish. 14% of institutions are moderately bullish, due to warming market sentiment, sensitivity to positive factors, insensitivity to negative factors, and the brewing of a bullish consensus. 69% are neutral, because of policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, citing the narrowing of monetary policy space, rising risk appetite, exhaustion of positive factors, increasing negative disturbances, and cautious institutional behavior [12][13]
当前债市,买方谨慎,卖方乐观:债券研究周报-20251021
Guohai Securities· 2025-10-21 10:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From October 13th to October 20th, the sentiment of bond market sellers continued to rise, while that of buyers declined. Sellers' consensus further solidified after the market warmed up, but buyers remained cautious and still focused on potential downside risks [4]. - Sellers were generally bullish on the bond market, with sentiment rising compared to the period from September 29th to October 12th. Among 23卖方机构, 4% were bullish, 48% were moderately bullish, and 48% were neutral [5]. - Buyers' overall view was moderately bullish with a neutral bias, and the sentiment index decreased. Among 26固收买方机构, 35% were moderately bullish, 58% were neutral, and 7% were moderately bearish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From October 13th to October 20th, the tracked weighted index was 0.34, up 0.09 from September 29th - October 12th, and the proportion of bullish views increased. The untracked weighted index was 0.57, up 0.23 from the previous period. Currently, institutions are generally neutral - bullish, with 1 bullish, 11 moderately bullish, and 11 neutral [12]. - 4% of institutions were bullish, citing factors such as consumption subsidy overdraft of demand, declining bank liability costs, and trade frictions [12]. - 48% of institutions were moderately bullish, believing that Sino - US trade frictions were beneficial to the bond market, internal economic pressure strengthened the expectation of monetary easing, and capital flows sought safe - havens [12]. - 48% of institutions were neutral, stating that interest rates had partially reflected economic expectations, the uncertainty of new public fund sales regulations, limited downside in the bond market, and the balance between positive and negative factors [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From October 13th to October 20th, the tracked weighted sentiment index was 0.17, mainly neutral, down from September 29th - October 12th. The untracked weighted index was 0.27, down 0.21 from the previous period. Currently, institutions are generally neutral - bullish, with 9 moderately bullish, 15 neutral, and 2 moderately bearish [13]. - 35% of institutions were moderately bullish, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, supported by the easing cycle, and expecting the asset shortage pattern to continue [13]. - 58% of institutions were neutral, believing that positive and negative factors were balanced, and the market preferred technical corrections rather than fundamental - driven trends [13]. - 7% of institutions were moderately bearish, citing factors such as new fund sales regulations, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and Fed rate - cut constraints [13].
债市情绪面周报(9月第2周):债市情绪仍在低位,看震荡者众-20250915
Huaan Securities· 2025-09-15 13:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia Securities view is to wait for the bond market to return to fundamental pricing, focus on trading long - term bonds, and the anti - decline of credit bonds may continue under loose funds. The current bond market is weak, with long - term interest rates reversing multiple times during the day. Policy factors, the stock - bond seesaw, and bond fund redemption fee reforms have impacted the bond market. The bullet strategy is theoretically better, and 10Y and 30Y bonds are suitable for intraday trading. There are opportunities in the spread compression of some high - coupon local bonds. Credit bonds are more anti - decline under loose funds [2]. - The seller's view is that the bond market sentiment remains low, and most expect a sideways movement. Currently, 22% of institutions are bullish, 56% are neutral, and 22% are bearish [2]. - The buyer's view is that over 60% of buyers are neutral. Overall, the sentiment of fixed - income buyers is bullish, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, 20% of institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 12% are bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0, both lower than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bearish, with 6 bullish, 15 neutral, and 6 bearish institutions [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.08, both higher than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bullish, with 5 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the stock - bond seesaw and public fund fee reforms. The stock - bond seesaw leads to intensified capital diversion from the bond market, increased pressure on bond fund redemptions, and the public fund fee reform triggers a structural adjustment on the liability side, causing a full - scale increase in credit bond yields [16][17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view. 40% of institutions are bullish, and 60% are neutral [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices generally declined. As of September 12, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.38 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 107.71 yuan, and 115.27 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.01 yuan, - 0.24 yuan, and - 1.08 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume and open interest of each contract increased [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds decreased to 4.00% on September 12, down 0.52 pct from last week. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased [33][36]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TS and TF contracts widened, while that of T and TL contracts narrowed. The net basis of most contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends [40][43]. 3.2.4 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - Except for the narrowing of the inter - period spread of the TL contract, the inter - period spreads of other contracts widened. Except for the narrowing of the 2*TS - TF spread, the inter - variety spreads of other contracts widened [51].
国债期货:资金继续收敛债市情绪仍弱 期债延续下行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-11 02:11
Market Performance - The futures market saw a decline in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.86% to 114.760, marking a new closing low since March 19 [1] - The 10-year main contract fell by 0.27% to 107.490, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts decreased by 0.15% and 0.04% respectively [1] - The yield on major interbank bonds increased, particularly for mid to long-term bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield rising nearly 4 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 10, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total of 304 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase weighted rate for deposit institutions slightly increased, remaining above 1.42%, while non-bank institutions saw rates for pledged certificates and credit bonds rise close to 1.50% [2] - Despite the central bank's shift to net injections, liquidity remains tight due to factors like maturing certificates and government bond issuances [2] Operational Suggestions - The recent increase in redemption fees for bond funds has contributed to a weak sentiment in the bond market, which may remain sensitive to negative news in the short term [3] - Investors are advised to observe funding trends and await clearer positive signals from the central bank, particularly after the release of August economic data [3] - The bond market sentiment is currently weak, with the 10-year government bond yield not stabilizing at 1.8%, suggesting potential further declines in bond prices [3]
债市情绪面周报(8月第3周):债市情绪年内第二次转负-20250825
Huaan Securities· 2025-08-25 11:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Hua'an's View**: The adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of individual bond spread mining. Although the bond market has been under pressure recently due to the strong performance of the equity market, it is expected to return to fundamental pricing in the medium and long term. After the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting released a dovish signal last Friday, it is predicted that there is no basis for a significant tightening of the capital market after the tax period. The central bank will cooperate with loose monetary policies in terms of supply. Currently, institutional behavior signals still indicate a long - position, the redemption/selling pressure of funds is controllable, and large banks' continuous bond - buying provides short - term certainty. As previously mentioned in the weekly report, the spread between 250210 and 250215 may widen [2]. - **Seller's View**: Bond market sentiment has turned negative for the second time this year, with nearly 30% of fixed - income sellers holding a bearish view. As of Monday this week, nearly 30% of fixed - income sellers are bearish on the bond market, 50% hold a neutral attitude, and the sentiment has declined compared to last week. There are 7 bullish, 19 neutral, and 8 bearish institutions. Most institutions maintain a cautious/volatile market judgment on the bond market [3]. - **Buyer's View**: Over 80% of buyers hold a neutral view. The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, among the market's buyer views, 3 are bullish, 25 are neutral, and 1 is bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets - **Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds**: The sentiment index has declined. The weighted index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is - 0.03, down 0.29 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bearish view, with 23% bullish, 50% neutral, and 27% bearish [12]. - **Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds**: The sentiment index has risen. The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.07, up 0.004 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10% bullish, 86% neutral, and 3% bearish [13]. - **Credit Bonds**: The main factors are the stock - bond seesaw and the Fed's dovish signal. In the short term, the strong stock market may continue to suppress the bond market, and the Fed's dovish signal indicates that overseas interest - rate cuts will benefit China's bond market [18]. - **Convertible Bonds**: Institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view this week. 92% of institutions are bullish, believing that the equity market has a strong long - term upward trend, convertible bonds still face supply - demand mismatch, and the asset shortage supports high valuations. 8% of institutions are neutral, warning of the risks of valuation correction and forced redemptions [19]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking - **Futures Trading**: Prices have decreased across the board, and trading volumes have increased across the board. As of August 22, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.32 yuan, 105.37 yuan, 107.66 yuan, and 115.98 yuan respectively, down 0.03 yuan, 0.29 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 1.50 yuan from last Friday. The trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts in the 5 - day moving average (5MA) perspective were 1280 billion yuan, 1139 billion yuan, 1586 billion yuan, and 2663 billion yuan respectively, up 362.98 billion yuan, 337.95 billion yuan, 353.55 billion yuan, and 608.66 billion yuan from last Friday [24]. - **Spot Bond Trading**: The turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds have all declined. On August 22, the turnover rate of 30 - year treasury bonds was 4.42%, down 0.73 percentage points from last week and 1.27 percentage points from Monday. The weekly average turnover rate was 4.82%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds was 0.88%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 0.15 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was 4.09%, down 2.11 percentage points from last week and 1.47 percentage points from Monday [30]. - **Basis Trading**: The basis and net basis have generally widened. Except for the narrowing of the basis of the TS main contract, the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of August 22, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was 0.03 yuan, 0.07 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.95 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.07 yuan, + 0.60 yuan, and + 1.06 yuan from last Friday. The net basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was 0.02 yuan, 0.08 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.38 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.10 yuan, + 0.26 yuan, and + 0.65 yuan from last Friday. The IRR of main contracts has generally declined [38]. - **Inter - period Spread and Inter - variety Spread**: Both have generally widened. Except for the narrowing of the spread of the TS main futures contract, the spreads of other main futures contracts have widened. As of August 22, the near - month to far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 0.00 yuan, 0.10 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.54 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.04 yuan, + 0.09 yuan, + 0.15 yuan, and + 0.09 yuan from last Friday. Except for the narrowing of the spread of the 3*T - TL futures contract, the spreads of other main futures contracts have widened. As of August 22, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 99.27 yuan, 103.09 yuan, 301.62 yuan, and 207.07 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.25 yuan, + 0.06 yuan, + 0.56 yuan, and - 0.25 yuan from last Friday [48][49].
债市晴雨表:基金久期基本持平
CMS· 2025-08-09 14:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the bond market situation through multiple indicators, showing that last week the bond market sentiment recovered slightly, while the trading activity in the secondary market decreased. The bond - fund issuance increased significantly, and there were changes in the bond - buying behavior of different institutions. The relative valuation of bonds also showed certain fluctuations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 114.8, up 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 50.1%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Institutional Duration - Last Friday, the fund duration was 2.21 years, up 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 3.12 years, up 0.02 years; the insurance duration was 6.93 years, down 0.01 years [1]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio - Last week, the pledged repurchase balance was 11.9 trillion yuan, up 0.5 trillion yuan from the previous value; the large - bank net lending balance was 5.0 trillion yuan, up 1.0 trillion yuan; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.8%, up 0.2 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Secondary Market Transactions - Last week, in terms of turnover rate, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 2.3%, down 1.0 percentage point; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 0.7%, down 0.2 percentage points; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 28.7%, down 0.5 percentage points; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.38%, down 0.06 percentage points [1]. 3.5 Institutional Allocation Power - Last week, the newly issued bond - fund shares were 25.1 billion yuan, up 22 billion yuan from the previous value. The stock market risk premium was 1.17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the US dollar index was 98.4, down 0.9. The rural commercial bank bond - allocation index was - 33.3%, up 19.3 percentage points; the insurance bond - allocation index was 50.1%, down 21.4 percentage points; the money - market fund bond - allocation index was 30.1%, down 16.1 percentage points; the insurance's allocation index for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was - 10.2%, down 18.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Primary Market Subscription - Last week, the full - field multiple of Treasury bonds decreased by 1.2 times to 3.1 times, the full - field multiple of local government bonds decreased by 0.4 times to 23.3 times, and the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds was 3.5 times, remaining the same as the previous value [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds widened by 2.0bp to 8.3bp, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds widened by 1.4bp to 25.7bp, the spread between old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 0.9bp to 1.2bp, and the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and Treasury bonds widened by 2.1bp to 12.5bp [2].