1月6日， "家里有矿，2025年涨超有色"的矿业ETF（561330）大涨超4%，资金持续布局，连续5日净流入超2.3亿元。 有色金属催化不断，布局金、铜涨价机遇 黄金：美联储降息周期持续+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势。地缘政治风险频发，市场避险情绪高企，为金价带来一定支撑。后续关注新 任美联储主席人选，若新任主席为鸽派，美联储降息节奏或更为激进，利好黄金表现。中长期看，"美联储降息大周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去 美元化趋势"对于金价依然构成支撑。 有色：供需偏紧，降息周期下有望呈现弹性。近期市场对2026年美联储持续降息预期升温，叠加铜、铝、锂等品种需求走强的同时，供给端约束加剧，价格 上涨或具有持续性，对相关权益也形成拉动。 综合来看，美联储降息周期持续+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势有望对金价形成持续支撑；而需求端走强叠加供给端约束加剧，有望推升 铜、铝、锂等商品价格，或可关注金、铜涨价带来的机遇。 龙头更集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高，矿业ETF（561330）2025年有色类ETF涨幅第一 根据iFinD数据，2025年矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.38% to close at 4023.42 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.24% to 13828.63 points, indicating a bullish trend supported by policy measures and the "opening red" effect at the beginning of the year [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.56 trillion yuan, with over 4100 stocks rising, particularly in the media and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance during the A-share market's break, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a rebound of over 4%, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for the technology sector despite potential short-term volatility [1] Group 2 - The gaming sector showed active performance, with significant capital inflow indicating strong confidence in the sector's "opening red" trend for 2026, shifting from mere valuation recovery to performance-driven growth [2] - The Gaming ETF (516010) is highlighted as a quality tool for investors to capitalize on the gaming industry's recovery, with a focus on medium to long-term investment strategies [2] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) rose by 5.96%, driven by surging AI demand and significant price increases in storage-related products, suggesting that storage capacity constraints may become a key investment theme through 2026 [2] Group 3 - The Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) saw increases of 2.09% and 2.41% respectively, supported by rising geopolitical risks and active trading in precious metals [3] - Short-term gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations due to profit-taking risks after recent highs, while the long-term outlook remains supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and increasing global uncertainty [3] - Investors are encouraged to monitor investment opportunities in gold ETFs amidst these market dynamics [3]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices experienced significant increases on January 5, with London gold reaching $4,400 and peaking at $4,419.81 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 0.81%. COMEX gold rose by 1.88%, while COMEX silver surged by 5.73% [1][4]. - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside increasing probabilities of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January. This has led to a surge in market risk aversion, providing support for gold prices [4]. - Long-term factors such as the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macroeconomic policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to continue supporting gold prices [4]. Group 2 - As of January 5, the latest prices for gold jewelry were reported as follows: Chow Tai Fook at 1,378 yuan per gram, Chow Sang Sang at 1,376 yuan per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang at 1,370 yuan per gram. Some gold jewelry prices increased by 22 yuan overnight [5].

Group 1 - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver peaking at $72.7 per ounce, marking annual increases of over 70% and nearly 150% respectively [1] - The surge in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics, driven by increased risk aversion and accelerated capital inflow into the sector [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, driven by rising unemployment and lower-than-expected core CPI, have weakened the dollar and reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, further supporting price increases [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have intensified, prompting a flight to safety into precious metals, which, combined with the end-of-year asset rebalancing cycle, has accelerated capital allocation into this sector [2] - Industrial demand, particularly for silver due to the expansion of photovoltaic installations and increased AI server demand, has provided strong support for precious metal prices [2] - The market sentiment and capital rotation have played a crucial role in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3] Group 3 - Central banks have continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-on-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals in official reserves [3] - The recent volatility in precious metals has led to increased margin requirements for trading, indicating heightened market risk [3] - Despite short-term volatility, long-term prospects for precious metals remain strong due to ongoing global monetary easing, persistent central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks [4]

黄金：美联储降息周期持续+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势。地缘政治方面，中东、 俄乌等地区局势难以缓和，美委局势又逐渐升温，市场避险情绪高企，为金价带来一定支撑。后续关注 新任美联储主席人选，若新任主席为鸽派，美联储降息节奏或更为激进，利好黄金表现。中长期 看，"美联储降息大周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价依然构成支撑。 有色：供需偏紧，降息周期下有望呈现弹性。近期市场对2026年美联储持续降息预期升温，叠加铜、 铝、锂等品种需求走强的同时，供给端约束加剧，价格上涨或具有持续性，对相关权益也形成拉动。 综合来看，美联储降息周期持续+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势有望对金价形成持续 支撑；而需求端走强叠加供给端约束加剧，有望推升铜、铝、锂等商品价格，矿业ETF（561330）"含 铜量"达28%、"含金量"15%。还包含铝、锂等金属相关权益，建议关注金、铜涨价带来的机遇。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关 规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金 有风险， ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, 2025, international spot gold surpassed $4500 per ounce, while silver peaked at $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [1]. - The overall trend for precious metals in 2025 was characterized by a volatile upward movement, influenced by heightened risk aversion and increased capital inflow into the sector [1][2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Price Movement - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve emerged as a primary catalyst, with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching a recent high in November 2025 and core CPI falling below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for monetary easing [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflow into precious metals as a safe haven, further driving prices upward [2]. - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in industrial applications such as solar energy and AI servers, have significantly boosted silver consumption [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played crucial roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3]. - Central banks continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals [3]. - Recent volatility in precious metals and industrial metal futures has prompted exchanges to raise margin requirements, indicating increased market risk [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist, influenced by profit-taking and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [4]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks, which support the investment value of precious metals [4]. - The complex factors influencing gold prices include Federal Reserve policies and U.S. inflation, while silver's price is closely tied to gold but exhibits greater volatility due to its industrial applications [4].

来源：经济日报 近期，贵金属市场再次成为投资者关注的焦点。2025年12月24日，黄金、白银同步创历史新高，国际现货黄 金首次突破4500美元/盎司，现货白银最高触及72.7美元/盎司，年内涨幅分别超过70%和逼近150%。然而，就 在市场情绪高涨之时，贵金属价格却突然迎来"急转弯"，12月29日现货白银剧烈回调，单日跌幅达到9.08%， 市场波动风险凸显。 市场人士普遍认为，市场情绪与资金轮动也是助推本轮涨势的重要因素。2025年全年贵金属多次创新高，市 场形成强烈看涨惯性，叠加国内铂钯期货上市吸引市场关注度提升，投机资金与趋势资金加速入场，进一步 放大了价格涨幅。此外，全球央行仍在延续自2022年以来的"购金热"，对金价形成长期托底。世界黄金协会 数据显示，各国央行2025年10月份净买入53吨黄金，环比增长36%，官方储备配置需求凸显贵金属战略价 值。 不过，市场在快速上涨过程中也积累了大量风险。近期贵金属与工业金属期货市场波动风险加剧，美国芝商 所集团近期宣布全线上调包括金、银、钯金、锂等在内的金属期货交易保证金。上海期货交易所也从2025年 12月30日收盘结算时上调保证金标准和涨跌停板幅度。对于此 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market has regained investor attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs on December 24, 2023, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver peaking at $72.7 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of over 70% and nearly 150% respectively, significantly outperforming most global asset classes [1] - The primary catalyst for the surge in precious metal prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by rising unemployment and lower-than-expected core CPI, which has strengthened the outlook for policy easing and weakened the dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflows into the precious metals market as a safe haven, while structural market dynamics due to imbalances in industrial supply and demand, particularly from the expansion of photovoltaic installations and surging AI server demand, have provided strong support for silver prices [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the precious metals market is expected to experience a further acceleration in capital allocation due to heightened risk aversion, with overall price trends showing a pattern of fluctuating increases [2] - Short-term risks include potential profit-taking by investors and the possibility of monetary policy easing falling short of expectations, which could exert downward pressure on prices [2] - Long-term prospects remain positive for precious metals, supported by the onset of global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and the deepening process of de-dollarization, alongside persistent geopolitical risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the artificial intelligence industry is seen as a significant pillar for future economic growth, helping to support the resilience of the US economy in the short term and reducing recession risks [1][2] - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 98 and 102 by 2026, with short-term benefits from a relatively stable economic foundation, but the downward trend in interest rates is a key constraint [3][5] - The dollar index has fallen approximately 9% this year, even dipping below the 100 mark, while gold prices have risen over 65% and silver prices have increased by more than 100% in the past 12 months [4] Group 2 - The market anticipates a continued loose monetary environment, with large fiscal deficits limiting the sustainability of high interest rates, making it difficult for monetary policy to maintain a tight stance in the long term [4] - The ongoing diversification of global foreign exchange reserves and asset allocation is reflected in the sustained strength of gold and silver, indicating a rebalancing of global funds within the monetary system [4][5] - The dollar's performance is likely to exhibit "range-bound and weak" characteristics in the long term, with structural pressures from declining interest rates, fiscal constraints, and the global de-dollarization process, while the strategic value of precious metals and diversified currency allocations is expected to become more prominent [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant surge, with gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, driven by macroeconomic concerns and increased demand for physical assets [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold rose by 1.19%, reaching a peak of $4549.96 per ounce [2] - Spot silver surged by 10.47%, surpassing $79 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 18.31% and a year-to-date increase of 174.62% [9][11] - Spot platinum increased by 10.39%, hitting a maximum of $2475 per ounce [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in transactions, with one jewelry store reporting over 30 kilograms of silver bought back in a single morning [3] - A customer reportedly made a profit of 20,000 yuan by trading silver within a week, highlighting the volatility and potential for quick gains in the current market [3] - The demand for silver is described as frenzied, with significant orders being placed and a shortage of immediate availability [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that precious metals will maintain an upward trend due to factors such as the politicization of the Federal Reserve, declining dollar credibility, and a potential silver supply crisis [12] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflation expectations are expected to support gold's value, while silver may outperform due to industrial demand and supply constraints [13] - The market is anticipated to experience higher volatility, with the need for careful timing in trading strategies [13]