肯尼亚主流媒体《星报》8日刊发肯尼亚国际关系学者卡文斯题为《非洲如何应对特朗普的惩罚性关税》的文章。文章指出，美国政府全面加征关税政策近 日生效，可能使非洲脆弱经济体陷入困境，非洲各国应推进贸易多元化战略，降低对美市场依赖。 文章指出，当前，《非洲大陆自由贸易协定》虽稳步推进，但区域内贸易仅占非洲贸易总量的18%，难以抵消全球贸易体系分裂造成的冲击。全球贸易战可 能使非洲脆弱经济体陷入困境，各国决策层亟需采取应对措施。推进贸易多元化战略，降低对美市场依赖，强化非洲大陆自贸区框架下区域内贸易，深化与 金砖国家等贸易伙伴合作，可有效缓冲美关税政策冲击。 文章说，非洲大陆高度依赖出口贸易、外国投资及多边贸易体系，惩罚性关税将加剧其经济脆弱性。在非洲应对债务危机和气候灾害等多重挑战之际，贸易 战进一步挤压其发展空间。相较于其他具备财政缓冲能力的大型经济体，非洲国家缺乏抵御贸易冲击的政策工具。 以肯尼亚为例，肯尼亚面临严峻关税冲击，预计将面临60万个就业岗位流失及大量财政收入损失。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Copper prices are influenced by U.S. non - farm data increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, a weaker dollar, and a low inventory in China. The market is overall weak, and attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is cooling, and the market is currently oscillating strongly. If the news of supply - side production cuts is false, the market may turn weak [8] Crude Oil - Due to the seasonal peak travel season and low U.S. crude oil inventories, but with an unexpected large increase in U.S. crude oil stocks and OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10] Asphalt - With开工率 changes, inventory status, and cost factors, asphalt is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12] PP - Given factors such as downstream开工率, supply, cost, and policy expectations, PP is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13] Plastic - Considering开工率, demand, cost, and policy factors, plastic is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15] PVC - With supply, demand, inventory, and policy conditions, PVC is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] Coking Coal - Although the market sentiment is cooling, due to the expectation of supply tightening, the downward space for coking coal price correction is limited [18] Urea - The market is oscillating, and future trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer plants and export conditions. The 09 contract has limited upward and downward space [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 4, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Logs and coking coal rose by over 2%, while eggs fell by over 4%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 1.063 billion yuan, while CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 1.092 billion yuan [4] Copper - The U.S. non - farm data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. China's copper production increased in July, and the TC/RC fee stopped falling. The market is in a slack season with weak demand, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is low [7] Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply - side开工率 increased, and there is an expected reduction in supply. The cost support is weakening, and downstream demand is expected to increase [8] Crude Oil - It's the seasonal peak travel season, and U.S. crude oil inventories are low. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus for 2025 [10] Asphalt - The开工率 of asphalt production has rebounded, and the expected production in August has decreased. The downstream开工率 varies, and the inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level. The cost support is weakening [11][12] PP - The downstream开工率 of PP has slightly increased, and the enterprise开工率 has risen. The upstream propane import is restricted, and there is new production capacity. The downstream recovery is slow, and the inventory pressure is high [13] Plastic - The plastic开工率 is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工率 has increased slightly. There is new production capacity, and the downstream is in a slack season with weak demand and high inventory [14][15] PVC - The PVC开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 is low. Exports are affected by policies, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price showed a mixed trend. The supply from Mongolia is high, and the domestic coal production has not significantly decreased. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production [18] Urea - The urea price weekend decline attracted orders. The production is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. The inventory has started to accumulate [19]

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating around $36.60 per ounce, down 0.30% from the opening price of $36.67 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that conditions for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China are "in place," but not yet fully completed, with significant progress made in recent talks [3] - The potential failure to reach a trade agreement could lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting U.S. domestic prices and causing disruptions in global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The international silver market is showing a bearish pattern, with a head and shoulders formation on the daily chart and a free-fall pattern on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend [4] - Short-term resistance levels for silver are identified at $37 to $37.2, with key resistance at $37.7 and $38.3, while immediate support is at the $36 level [4] - The market sentiment is further pressured by concerns over a new round of tariffs, leading to a general decline in Asian stock markets, although safe-haven flows into silver have not been significant [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on July 31, 2025, has a scope exceeding market expectations, causing the market to reverse previous gains. Subsequently, copper may return to a fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and the upside is restricted by uncertain expectations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is under pressure today. Although downstream sentiment has improved, high inventory restricts the upside. The anti - involution measures have not ended, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Future trends depend on the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on production in September on August 3. Saudi Aramco has raised prices, and geopolitical factors have led to a recent strong and volatile oil price. Caution is advised [10]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventories are at a low level. With cost support strengthening and policies beneficial for the long - term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: Downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has new capacity and increasing maintenance. With cost rising and policies not yet implemented, PP is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: New capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. With cost rising and policies not yet effective, plastic is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: Supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. With policies not yet having a real impact, PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals are fair, with inventory transfer and downstream demand remaining strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled, and caution is needed in trading [18]. - Urea: Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate. The 9 - 1 spread has reached a historical low [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 31, most domestic futures contracts closed lower. SC crude oil rose over 1%, while glass dropped over 8%, and coking coal and polysilicon dropped over 7%. In terms of funds, Shanghai Gold 2510, Glass 2509, and Soda Ash 2509 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, Polysilicon 2509, and Rebar 2510 had outflows [4]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The Trump administration's new copper tariff policy excludes upstream raw materials, and the scope is lower than expected, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. Domestically, the TC/RC fee is negative but stable. Refineries can still maintain production, but the new tariff may affect export demand [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply - side reform has not ended, and the market is waiting for the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. Crude Oil - Entering the peak travel season, U.S. crude oil inventories are low. The EIA report shows gasoline de - stocking, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC+ will make production decisions in September, and Saudi Aramco has raised prices. Geopolitical factors have led to a strong and volatile oil price [10]. Asphalt - Last week, asphalt production decreased, downstream demand increased slightly, and inventories decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to rising oil prices. Policies are beneficial for the long - term, and asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. PP - Downstream PP demand is weak, with a decrease in downstream and enterprise operating rates. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance has increased. Cost has risen, and policies have not been effectively implemented, so PP is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - New plastic capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is large. Cost has risen, and policies have not had an impact, so plastic is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - PVC supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. Policies have not had a real impact, so PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal fundamentals are fair, with increasing Mongolian coal imports and a slight decrease in domestic production. Inventory has been transferred, and downstream demand is strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled [18]. Urea - Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, but long - term supply is tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term, with a focus on the 78,000 yuan/ton support level [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and cautious operation is recommended [8][9]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production policy on September 3rd [10]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [11][12]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate, with a recommendation of 09 - 01 reverse spread, due to factors such as trade, supply, and demand [13]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. - For PVC, it is expected to decline with fluctuations, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, affected by supply, demand, and inventory [16][17]. - For coking coal, it is expected to consolidate in the near term, with cautious trading [18]. - For urea, it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and the current market is a rebound [19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 30th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose over 8%, while cotton, cotton yarn, and pulp fell over 1%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2509, SSE 500 2509, and polysilicon 2509 had capital inflows, while coking coal 2509, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had outflows [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is short - term loose and long - term tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is slightly up. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [8][9]. Crude Oil - Entering the seasonal peak season, prices are affected by factors such as OPEC+ production, trade agreements, and sanctions, and are expected to fluctuate [10]. Asphalt - Supply has decreased, demand is affected by funds and weather, and prices are expected to fluctuate [11][12]. PP - Downstream and enterprise operating rates are low, and it is expected to fluctuate due to trade and supply - demand factors [13]. Plastic - Operating rates are at a medium level, and it is expected to fluctuate considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [16][17]. Coking Coal - The price is slightly up, and it is expected to consolidate in the near term [18]. Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, while the medium - to - long - term supply is tight. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. Caution is needed [9][10] - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in September [11] - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate recently [13] - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastics, it is expected to oscillate recently, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] - For PVC, it is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] - For coking coal, due to high volatility, cautious operation is advisable [19] - For urea, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on July 29, most domestic futures contracts declined. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, while glass dropped over 7%. In stock index futures, most contracts rose, and in treasury bond futures, most contracts declined [4] Capital Flows - As of 15:14 on July 29, rebar 2510, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had capital inflows of 1.39 billion, 1.272 billion, and 1.225 billion respectively. Lithium carbonate 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and ferromanganese silicon 2509 had capital outflows of 1.658 billion, 1.36 billion, and 827 million respectively [5] Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is currently loose due to tariff influence and may tighten in the long run. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price is declining. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [9][10] Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ will increase production. Prices are expected to oscillate [11] Asphalt - Supply and demand indicators show mixed trends. It is expected to oscillate recently [13] PP - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply and cost factors interact. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastics - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply increases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] Coking Coal - Supply is stable, and demand is strong. High volatility requires cautious operation [19] Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory removal slows. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold bars in China has stabilized around 700 CNY per gram since mid-March, with experts suggesting a long-term upward trend despite recent fluctuations [1] Group 1: Current Price Trends - Domestic investment gold bar prices have been hovering around the 700 CNY per gram mark for over four months, having previously exceeded 800 CNY per gram [1] - Last week, gold prices retreated from a high of 3400 USD per ounce, indicating volatility influenced by trade tensions [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Trade wars and tariff disputes have significantly impacted gold prices, with prices rising during intense trade conflicts and falling when agreements are reached [1] - Experts predict that ongoing geopolitical, economic, and military tensions between nations will continue to support a long-term increase in gold prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies [4][9][10] - Asphalt: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading [4][60][62] - PVC: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][112][113] - L&PP: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][154][155] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel eased supply concerns. OPEC+ will increase production in August and September. Although in the peak season, demand will weaken over time, causing prices to face pressure in August [9] - Asphalt: Supply is expected to decrease in August, but downstream demand will be affected by funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. The potential increase in Venezuelan diluted asphalt raw materials may lead to a sideways movement [61] - PVC: Upstream calcium carbide prices are weak. Supply is still at a relatively high level, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. It is expected to decline with short - selling opportunities [112] - L&PP: August is the traditional maintenance season, but production remains high due to new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve. It is expected to move sideways [154] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Prices rose in July, affected by geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production decisions, and Saudi price adjustments [12] - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: WTI non - commercial net long positions declined in July, and Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts decreased [16] - **Production**: OPEC production increased in June, and OPEC+ will raise production in August and September. US production decreased in the week of July 18 [20] - **Drilling Rigs**: US oil drilling rigs decreased in July [24] - **US Imports and Exports**: US crude imports decreased, and exports increased in the week of July 18 [28] - **China's Processing and Imports**: China's crude processing and imports increased in June [32] - **US Economic Data**: US CPI rose in June, and the European Central Bank maintained interest rates [36] - **Crack Spreads**: US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased in July [40] - **US Demand**: US gasoline demand increased, and diesel demand decreased in the latest data [45] - **Inventory**: US crude, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week of July 18 [49][53] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Houthi rebels upgraded their maritime blockade, and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation is back on track [55] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The asphalt/ crude ratio decreased in July, and the basis declined [69][73] - **Production and Capacity**: Asphalt production decreased in June, and the expected production in August will decline slightly [61][81] - **Consumption and Shipment**: Apparent consumption increased in May, and the national shipment increased in the week of July 25 [85] - **Profit and开工率**: The开工率 decreased at the end of July, and the spot - end profit loss in Shandong expanded [89] - **Imports and Exports**: No detailed analysis of the trend was provided in the report [93][96] - **Downstream Situation**: Road transport investment increased in the first half of 2025, and the asphalt downstream开工率 increased in the week of July 25 [101][106] PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the report [114] - **Upstream Situation**: Calcium carbide prices fell in July, with slightly improved profitability, and semi - coke prices and profitability decreased [121] - **Production and开工率**: PVC production decreased slightly in June, and the开工率 decreased in the week of July 25 [125][129] - **Imports and Exports**: Imports increased in June, exports decreased but remained high, and anti - dumping tax delays may stimulate exports [137] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate is still in adjustment, with continued year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas in the first half of 2025 [141] - **下游开工率**: PVC下游开工率 increased slightly in the week of July 25 but remained at a low level [144] - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory increased in the week of July 24 [148] Polyolefins (L&PP) - **Market Review**: The basis of plastics and PP decreased, falling to a low level [166][170] - **Production and开工率**: PE and PP production were at high levels in June, and the开工率 increased recently [175][182][186] - **Imports and Exports**: PE and PP imports decreased in June, and exports were at high levels. Net imports are expected to decline [192][199] - **下游情况**: Plastic product production increased in the first half of 2025, and exports turned positive in June. The downstream开工率 of PE and PP decreased slightly in the week of July 25 [203][207] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased on July 25 but remained at a relatively high level [211] - **Profit**: Coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased in July, and coal - based PP remained profitable [216]

Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing trade war, primarily driven by the U.S. under President Trump, is creating significant global economic implications, with the EU seeking to navigate its interests amidst U.S.-China tensions [1] - Trump's tiered tariff strategy, which includes a baseline 15% tariff, disproportionately impacts specific industries, such as a potential €26 billion loss for the German automotive sector and pressures on French brandy producers from Chinese anti-dumping investigations [3] - The EU's recent negotiations with China faced strong resistance, particularly regarding requests to lift rare earth export controls and halt energy trade with Russia, highlighting the complexities of international trade relations [4] Group 2: Economic Cooperation Amidst Tensions - Despite the political tensions, there are signs of pragmatic economic cooperation, such as the resumption of negotiations on electric vehicle anti-subsidy agreements and commitments from China to facilitate compliance applications for rare earth exports [6] - The logistics sector is feeling the strain from tariffs, with UPS announcing a workforce reduction of 20,000 and shipping costs rising by 20%, indicating the broader impact of trade policies on operational costs [8] - The deep interconnections in the global economy are evident, with significant trade flows continuing between the EU and China, including a notable increase in Chinese investments in the Eurozone despite rising tensions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]