Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]

Export Performance - In August 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.4%, down from 7.2% in the previous month, while import growth was 1.3%, down from 4.1%[6][12] - The trade surplus increased, but the export momentum showed a mild decline due to high base effects from 2024[6][12] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to the US decreased by 33.1%, while exports to ASEAN countries increased by 22.5%[12][22] - Exports to Latin America fell by 2.3%, attributed to a decline in technical rush shipments and new tariffs affecting the region's status as a transshipment point[12][22] Product-Specific Insights - Capital goods exports remained strong, while labor-intensive product exports continued to decline[18][22] - Intermediate goods benefited from transshipment and processing trade, indicating a shift in export dynamics[18][22] Transshipment Regulation Impact - Concerns over transshipment regulations in ASEAN countries are a key risk factor, with potential impacts on export growth estimated at 0.7% to 1.2%[22][23] - Even under worst-case scenarios, a 40% tariff on transshipment and processing trade would only affect the export growth rate by 2%[22][23] Future Outlook - Short-term export momentum is expected to decline moderately, but medium to long-term resilience remains strong due to stable demand from non-US and non-transshipment markets[22][23] - Anticipated climate disruptions and base effects in Q4 2025 may influence export growth rates, with a potential rebound expected in September due to lower base comparisons[22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various sectors in the Chinese economy, highlighting fluctuations in production, demand, and infrastructure investment, while also noting the impact of seasonal factors and policy constraints on these trends. Group 1: Power Generation - As of August 28, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 3.9% decline in July [1][6] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's inflow data showed a significant narrowing of the decline in August compared to July, suggesting that hydroelectric power generation may exceed July levels [1][6] Group 2: Industrial Production - The operating rates in the industrial sector showed mixed results, with upstream production slightly slowing down month-on-month but generally improving year-on-year [7][8] - As of the fourth week of August, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coking enterprises rose by 4.5 percentage points [7][8] Group 3: Steel Production - Major steel mills maintained a stable average daily production of rebar at around 2.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of over 27% due to low base effects [10] - Hot-rolled coil production also remained stable at approximately 3.2 million tons per day, with a year-on-year change turning positive [10] Group 4: Infrastructure Investment - The funding availability rate for construction projects continued to recover, reaching 59.2% as of August 26, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [11][12] - The cement dispatch rate recorded 38.1%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% despite a month-on-month decline [11][12] Group 5: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales continued to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 9.9% in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities in August [15][16] - The number of second-hand housing transactions in 82 cities increased by 24.5% year-on-year, indicating some recovery in the market [16] Group 6: Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 3% year-on-year in August, a slowdown from the previous 7% growth, attributed to high base effects from last year [19] - The wholesale volume of passenger vehicles increased by 12% year-on-year, maintaining a steady growth trend [19] Group 7: Container Throughput - Container throughput at domestic ports showed a year-on-year growth of 10.2% from August 4 to August 24, indicating strong export activity [21] - The average cargo throughput also increased by 6.3% year-on-year during the same period [21]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with cement dispatch volumes declining again, indicating weak demand[15] - Industrial production is at a historically high level but has marginally decreased compared to the previous two weeks[24] - Construction demand has turned negative year-on-year, with rebar and building materials demand falling to historical lows[31] Prices - Domestic industrial prices are fluctuating weakly due to limited demand-side support, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining[45] - International commodity prices are volatile, with gold prices showing a strong upward trend amid expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[42] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a 33% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks[63] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing year-on-year changes of -3%, +17%, and +19% respectively[68] Exports - August exports are expected to grow by approximately 5% to 7%, with a model indicating a 5.5% increase[71] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with the R007 and DR007 both at 1.52% as of August 31[76] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 13,759 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[78]

Export and Import Growth - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% (previous value 5.9%), while import growth was 4.1% (previous value 1.1%) [5] - Month-on-month, July exports decreased by 1.1% compared to June, slightly below seasonal levels but higher than the same period in 2024 [5] - The trade surplus decreased in July 2025 [5] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, with growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments before August tariffs [11] - Exports to the United States decreased by 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions increased by 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [11] Product-Specific Insights - In the machinery and electronics sector, equipment exports remained strong, while consumer electronics showed a decline due to previous over-shipments [18] - Labor-intensive imports decreased, while grain imports saw a notable increase [23] Future Outlook and Risks - Export growth is expected to moderate, with key risks including the implementation of Section 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments [29] - The resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment [29]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,082, up 0.7% for the day and 25.0% year-to-date (YTD) [1] - The MSCI Hong Kong index increased by 1.4% for the day and 26.9% YTD [1] - The KOSPI index showed a significant YTD increase of 34.5%, closing at 3,228 [1] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil price decreased by 0.9% to US$66 per barrel, down 8.3% YTD [2] - Gold prices rose by 0.8% to US$3,396 per ounce, with a YTD increase of 29.4% [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) surged by 92.7% YTD, closing at 1,921 [2] Economic Indicators - US consumer credit total was reported at US$5.1 billion, below the consensus of US$7.4 billion [3] - The US CPI for urban consumers increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year [3] - The US PPI Final Demand YoY increased by 2.3%, slightly below the consensus of 2.5% [3] Trade and Exports - China's exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, surpassing the 5.2% growth in June [5] - Imports into China increased by 4.1% YoY in July, indicating a rebound from previous months [7] - The strong export growth to non-US regions helped offset declines in exports to the US due to increased tariffs [6] Corporate Insights - China Mobile reported a 6% YoY increase in Q2 earnings to RMB53.6 billion, exceeding market expectations [13] - Hua Hong Semiconductor's Q2 results showed a gross profit margin of 10.9%, driven by a 6% QoQ increase in wafer shipments [16] - BeiGene's Q2 revenue reached US$1.32 billion, a 42% YoY increase, with significant contributions from its key products [24]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.4% and up from the previous month's growth of 5.9%[5] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where July 2024 exports were at their lowest level since 2001, with a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries accounted for 17% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 16%[12] Import Performance - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 1.0% decline and marking the highest level since July of the previous year[22] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by machinery and high-tech products, with integrated circuit imports growing by approximately 13%[22] - Despite a continued decline in crude oil imports, the total value of crude oil imports saw a reduced year-on-year decline due to quantity recovery[22] Trade Balance - China's trade surplus in July was recorded at $98.24 billion, lower than the expected $105 billion and down from $114.75 billion in the previous month[5] - The trade balance reflects the ongoing challenges in the external trade environment, particularly with the U.S. market, where exports saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 22%[12] Market Outlook - The report indicates potential pressures on future export growth due to the uncertain trade environment and the impact of new U.S. tariffs[9] - The global manufacturing PMI for July was at 49.3, indicating a slight decline and suggesting a slowdown in global manufacturing recovery[9]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9%[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 9.2%, up 1.7 percentage points from June, driven by improved manufacturing sentiment in the Eurozone[2] - Exports to ASEAN grew by 16.6%, contributing 2.6 percentage points to overall exports, with Vietnam seeing a 27.9% increase[3] Import Trends - July imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 1.1% and expectations of 0.3%[6] - Copper ore and chips saw significant import increases of 26.4% and 13.0% respectively, contributing 0.9 and 2.0 percentage points to import growth[6] - Energy imports remained a drag, with crude oil imports down 7.4% and coal imports down 47.8%[6] Future Outlook - The potential for a decline in exports is heightened due to increased U.S. tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising to 17.2% and a new 40% transit tariff impacting re-export trade[2] - Despite potential declines, strong demand from Europe and emerging markets is expected to provide support for exports to the EU, Africa, and the Middle East[2] - The policy focus for the second half of the year is expected to shift towards implementation rather than strong stimulus measures[1]

Core Insights - China's export of electromechanical products reached 9.18 trillion yuan in the first seven months, marking a growth of 9.3% and accounting for 60% of total exports [1] - Exports of labor-intensive products decreased by 0.8% to 2.41 trillion yuan, representing 15.7% of total exports [1] - Agricultural product exports increased by 2.9% to 414.66 billion yuan [1] Electromechanical Products - Automatic data processing equipment and its components exported amounted to 823.62 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.1% [1] - Integrated circuits exports were valued at 778.45 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 21.8% [1] - Automobile exports reached 513.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.9% [1] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of clothing and accessories totaled 636.79 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.9% [1] - Textile exports were valued at 590.07 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% [1] - Plastic products exports amounted to 438.9 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.5% [1] Agricultural Products - The total export value of agricultural products was 414.66 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.9% [1]

Core Insights - China's export of electromechanical products reached 9.18 trillion yuan in the first seven months, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports [1] - Exports of labor-intensive products decreased by 0.8% to 2.41 trillion yuan, representing 15.7% of total exports [1] - Agricultural product exports increased by 2.9% to 414.66 billion yuan [1] Electromechanical Products - Exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components amounted to 823.62 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.1% [1] - Integrated circuit exports reached 778.45 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 21.8% [1] - Automobile exports totaled 513.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.9% [1] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of clothing and accessories were 636.79 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.9% [1] - Textile exports reached 590.07 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% [1] - Plastic product exports were 438.9 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.5% [1]