1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and exports were lower than market expectations, while the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods slightly exceeded expectations. The year - on - year actual growth of added value of large - scale industries was lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index declined compared with September. Domestic real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in October, and the data in early November also showed the same trend. As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but their effectiveness was not obvious in October's investment data. The physical work volume may be more reflected in the remaining two months of this year and the first quarter of next year. After the China - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur at the end of October, the decline in the growth rate of exports to the US in the remaining two months of this year will probably slow down, and exports to the US will recover next year [4][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of a 0.7% decline. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 1.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8%. Narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%. Real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, manufacturing investment decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [1][5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to October, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 9.6% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and sales volume of new homes nationwide widened significantly. The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased year - on - year in each quarter, and the decline in October and November expanded. The prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities continued to bottom out. In October, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 21.4% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses decreased by 29% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 28% year - on - year [7][9][10]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In October, the actual year - on - year growth of added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, lower than the market expectation of 5.5%. High - tech manufacturing continued to maintain relatively fast growth. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.4%, 0.9 percentage points lower year - on - year [2][11]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In October, China's export amount in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 3.2%. Imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 4.1%. In the first 10 months, the overall export growth rate was 5.3%, exceeding the 5.2% of the same period last year, thanks to export diversification. In the remaining two months of this year, China's exports may have single - digit growth year - on - year [2][12]. 3.5 Consumption - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations. By consumption type, commodity retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year. Among the retail sales of commodities of units above the designated size, categories such as gold and silver jewelry, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies had relatively fast year - on - year growth, while categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, construction and decoration materials, and automobiles had year - on - year declines [3][14][15]. 3.6 Service Industry and Unemployment - In October, the national service industry production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, reaching a new low this year. From January to October, it increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [17].

Export Data Overview - In October, China's exports in USD terms decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3% and down from 8.3% in September[2] - October's exports saw a month-on-month decline of 7.1%, approaching historical lows (2022's -7.7%) due to seasonal factors and a high base effect from the previous year[5] - The two-year average year-on-year growth for October was 5.5%, similar to September's 5.3%[3] Regional Analysis - Exports to the US showed marginal improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, marking a significant recovery compared to historical lows in July and August[18] - Conversely, exports to the EU exhibited weakness, with a month-on-month decline of 8.6% in October, indicating potential risks in EU demand[18] - Exports to ASEAN countries improved slightly, with a month-on-month change of -0.7%, aligning closely with historical averages[19] Future Outlook - For Q4, the low base in November and slightly higher base in December suggest potential year-on-year growth of 1.2% for Q4, with an annual growth estimate of 4.8%[21] - The reduction of the fentanyl tariff by the US may further enhance export performance to the US, as it narrows the tax rate gap with other regions[21] - Leading indicators from G7 countries suggest a potential recovery in export growth for November and December[22] Price and Volume Dynamics - The average export price for 15 major products increased by 5.1% in October, driven by significant price rises in ships, while the export volume growth for these products fell to 5.2%[57] - The overall export price index showed a year-on-year decline of 2.5% for the first eight months of the year, lagging behind global trade price growth of 1%[31] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in October was reported at $901 billion, slightly down from $904 billion in September, indicating a narrowing trend[54]

Core Insights - Uruguay's export value reached $11.356 billion in the first ten months of the year, marking a 4% year-on-year increase [2] Export Performance - Beef exports led the category, totaling $2.184 billion, with a significant 33% increase, primarily exported to the United States, China, the EU, Israel, and Brazil [2] - Pulp ranked second with $1.96 billion, experiencing a 9% decline due to maintenance shutdowns at a pulp mill operated by Fibria, mainly exported to China, the EU, the US, Turkey, and South Korea [2] - Soybean exports were third at $1.316 billion, reflecting a 16% increase, with major markets including China, Algeria, Egypt, the UK, and Brazil [2] Major Export Destinations - China emerged as the largest export destination for Uruguay, with exports valued at $3.047 billion, a 10% increase [2] - Brazil ranked second with $1.673 billion in exports, showing a 13% decline [2] - The EU was the third-largest destination, with exports amounting to $1.506 billion, a 1% increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in October showed mixed performance, with overall export growth benefiting from diversification despite a decline in exports to the US. The bond market had a short - term rally last week and a slight pullback this week, and if international financial market volatility expands next week, it will be relatively favorable for the domestic bond market [10][14][27] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market - This week, most of the major Treasury futures contracts showed a narrow sideways fluctuation in the first two trading days and a continuous decline in the last three days, with a slight weekly decline. The 30 - year Treasury fell 0.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.20%, the 5 - year fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year fell 0.07% [4] - As of November 7, the Treasury bond yield curve shifted slightly upward in parallel compared to October 31. The 2 - year yield rose 3 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 2 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 1 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2 BP to 2.16% [7] 3.2 Foreign Trade - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars. From January to October, exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [10] - In October, exports to ASEAN increased by 11%, to the EU by 0.9%, and decreased by 25.2% to the US. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 3.45% [12][14] 3.3 Real Estate - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In the second quarter, it was 265,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In the third quarter, it was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In October, it was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. From November 1 - 6, it was 170,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. The national commercial housing sales are still in the bottom - grinding process [16] 3.4 Prices - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rose rapidly in October, which will promote the month - on - month increase of CPI in October and reduce the year - on - year decline. At the beginning of November, it showed a narrow sideways fluctuation [18] - In October, the average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. At the beginning of November, industrial product prices remained at a low level [21] 3.5 Capital - This week, short - term capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.318%, and that of DR007 was 1.424%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.637%, a slight decline from last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The reasons for the decline in China's exports in October include the slowdown of export growth in South Korea and Vietnam in October and the relatively high base in October last year. The central bank's plan to resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations drove the bond market rally last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% may be the upper limit in the future [27] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [28]

Core Insights - China's export of electromechanical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan in the first ten months, marking an 8.7% increase and accounting for 60.7% of total exports [1] Electromechanical Products - Exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components totaled 1.19 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 0.7% [1] - Integrated circuits exports were valued at 1.16 trillion yuan, with a significant growth of 24.7% [1] - Automobile exports amounted to 798.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [1] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of labor-intensive products reached 3.38 trillion yuan, down by 3%, representing 15.3% of total exports [1] - Clothing and apparel exports were 905 billion yuan, decreasing by 3% [1] - Textile exports were valued at 844.19 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.8% [1] - Plastic products exports totaled 614.55 billion yuan, showing a marginal decline of 0.1% [1] Agricultural Products - Exports of agricultural products reached 598.98 billion yuan, with a growth of 2% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The economic growth rate in Q3 2025 met expectations, but due to the high base caused by policy stimulus in Q4 2024, the growth rate in Q4 2025 may be the lowest of the year. China is expected to achieve an annual economic growth target of around 5% in 2025 [4][22][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were 5.4% and 5.2% respectively. The Q3 GDP grew 1.1% quarter-on-quarter. The cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2% year-on-year [1][5]. Investment - From January to September, national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year-on-year, against a market expectation of flat growth. In September, fixed - asset investment decreased 0.07% month-on-month, showing an eight - month consecutive decline [2][8]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment (broad sense) grew 3.3% year-on-year, while narrow - sense infrastructure investment grew 1.1% year-on-year. Manufacturing investment grew 4.0% year-on-year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year-on-year [2][8]. - In September, manufacturing investment decreased 1.9% year-on-year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment decreased 4.6% year-on-year [8]. Real Estate - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 5.5% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased 7.9% year-on-year. In September, the sales of new commercial housing declined at an accelerated pace [11]. - In September, the prices of second - hand residential properties in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline. The prices in first - tier cities decreased 1.0% month-on-month, and the declines in second - and third - tier cities widened [11]. - In September, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased 11.0% year-on-year. The new construction area decreased 15.0% year-on-year, and the completed area increased 0.39% year-on-year [12]. Industry - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises grew 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The product sales rate was 96.7%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year but 2.1 percentage points lower than in September 2019 [3][13]. - In Q3 2025, the capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 74.6%, the lowest in the same period since 2017, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [14]. Foreign Trade - In September, China's exports denominated in US dollars grew 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The overall export growth in the first nine months was 6.1%, higher than the same period last year, thanks to export diversification. However, the export growth rate is likely to decline in Q4 due to the high base in Q4 last year [3][15][16]. Consumption - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 3.0% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations. The growth rate of consumer goods sales by限额以上 units in some categories slowed down, mainly due to high base effects and subsidy reductions [4][18]. Employment - In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and up 0.1 percentage point from the same month last year [4][21]. Policy and Outlook - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction. About 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments may be issued in Q4 [4][22][24]. - The suspension of 24% ad - valorem tariffs between China and the US is likely to be extended after November 10 [4][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a mixed performance in exports, with China's textile and apparel exports for January to September 2025 amounting to $106.48 billion and $115.21 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% and a decline of 2.5% [3][19]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports for the same period have shown a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.77% [4][19]. - The report highlights strong retail performance for brands like 361 Degrees and Tebu International, with 361 Degrees achieving healthy growth in retail sales [2][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Major Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported September 2025 revenue data, with notable performances including: - Yuanyuan Group: September revenue down 3.8%, but a 2.3% increase year-to-date [20]. - Fengtai Enterprises: September revenue down 0.87%, with a 4.29% decline year-to-date [5]. - Laiyi Industry: September revenue up 0.65%, with an 8.16% increase year-to-date [6]. - Juyang Industrial: September revenue down 28.22%, with a 0.99% decline year-to-date [7]. - Ruhong: September revenue up 1.59%, with a 5.39% increase year-to-date [8]. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector saw a decline of 0.31% in the week, while the SW light industry sector fell by 2.22% [11][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector dropped by 2.73%, while the SW apparel and home textile sector rose by 0.41% [11][23]. Industry Data Tracking - China's textile and apparel exports for January to September 2025 were $106.48 billion and $115.21 billion, with year-on-year changes of 2.1% and -2.5% respectively [19][48]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.77% for the same period [4][19]. Industry News - MUJI's parent company reported a global revenue increase of 18.6% for the last fiscal year, with significant growth in the Chinese market [63][64]. - LVMH reported a 4% decline in total revenue for the first nine months of 2025, but noted a return to growth in the Chinese market [68][69]. - Lao Feng Xiang announced a $24 million investment to acquire a 20% stake in Maybach Luxury Asia Pacific, aiming to enhance its high-end product offerings [70][71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a shift in focus from demand to supply as countries enter a mature industrialization phase. The overall economy is expected to remain stable, with potential for recovery in the steel sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of government fiscal policies in influencing trade balances and commodity prices, particularly gold, which is seen as a counter to the U.S. dollar's credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for steel mills to implement production cuts effectively to stabilize the market and improve valuations of certain companies within the industry [2][4]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has slightly decreased to 2.409 million tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 90.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has rebounded by 16.5% week-on-week, although it remains down 2.0% year-on-year [47]. - Rebar demand has shown a significant increase of 43.5% week-on-week, while overall building material transactions have decreased by 6.3% [37][38]. Price and Profitability - The report notes a slight decline in the current steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index down by 1.5% week-on-week [69]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled products are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [70]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [8] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [8] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [8] - New Steel (新钢股份) [8] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [8] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [8] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [8] - Wujin Stainless Steel (武进不锈) [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's exports to the United States have sharply decreased by over 40% in the first ten days of October, marking a significant decline in trade relations due to the implementation of U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1: Export Trends - The United States has fallen from being South Korea's second-largest export market to the third-largest since July [1] - The recent statistics indicate a notable drop in South Korea's exports to the U.S., which has been a long-standing trading partner [1] Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - The South Korean won has experienced significant volatility, prompting the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea to issue a joint statement expressing concern over the currency's fluctuations [1] - This marks the first verbal intervention regarding the exchange rate by South Korean authorities in one year and six months, highlighting the seriousness of the situation [1]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]