| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘 | 3 | | | 一、年后现货拐点逐渐确立后步入下跌通道，近远月驱动出现分化 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 5 | | | 一、集运市场开始步入传统货运淡季，现货运价出现拐点后进入下跌通道. | 5 | | | 二、年末集装箱新船交付量出现大幅抬升，关注新年集装箱新船下水情况 | | | | | 10 | | 三、12 | 月中国出口数据强势收官，出口结构表现继续分化 | 21 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 28 | 航运板块研发报告 集运指数（欧线）月报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 1 月现货拐点已现，关注地缘动态进展 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 运价方面，1 月现货高点已现，旺季货量筑顶回落后，主流船司相继调降现 货报价，现货运价步入快速下跌通道中，截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，SCFI 欧线报 1595 美金/TEU，已经连续三周下跌。预计节后集 ...

研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,717.5 | -9.2 | -0.53% | 984.0 | 74.16% | 3,495.0 | -17.28% | | EC2604 | 1,193.9 | -6.3 | -0.52% | 25,043.0 | -41.99% | 38,647.0 | -7.30% | | EC2606 | 1,442.2 | -5.4 | -0.37% | 2,566.0 | -42.76% | 7,912.0 | 8.03% | | EC2608 | 1,528. ...

ICC 鑫椤资讯年终盘点： | 2025年碳酸锂市场盘点： | | --- | 行业热点新闻 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 2025年电解液市场盘点： 2025年铜箔市场盘点： 2025年钴酸锂市场盘点： 2025年三元材料市场盘点： 2025年磷酸铁锂市场盘点： 2025年三元前驱体市场盘点： 2025年六氟磷酸锂市场盘点： 2025年磷酸铁市场盘点： 2025年添加剂VC市场盘点： 2025年钠离子电池市场盘点： 2025年新型锂盐LIFSI市场盘点： 2025年隔膜市场盘点： 2025年锂电池市场盘点： 2025年铝箔市场盘点： 2025年储能电池市场盘点： 2025年储能系统市场盘点： 中汽协：2025中国汽车全年销售3440万辆 中汽协公布2025年我国汽车产销再创历史新高： 产量3453.1万辆、销量3440万辆，同比分别增长 10.4%和9.4%，连续第三年站稳3000万辆台阶，并连续17年保持全球第一。 新能源汽车表现尤为突 出，全年产销分别达1662.6万辆和1649万辆，同比增长29%和28.2%，占国产新车 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 近日，国投期货航运研究员李海群在期货日报举办的最新一期"大势观澜·深一度"节目中深入剖析了 2026年影响运价走势的关键因素。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 整体来看，李海群表示，2026年集运市场将围绕"出口退税政策退出前的集中抢运"与"红海复航"两大核 心变量展开博弈。 李海群认为，需求端最大的短期变量来自出口退税政策。自2026年4月1日起，光伏产品等出口退税将取 消，2027年电池产品退税也将全面退出。这一政策预计将刺激相关企业在2026年第一季度集中"抢出 口"，出口前置将透支后续需求，拖累二季度及之后的运价。中长期来看，航运市场需求增长动能预计 将明显放缓，增长动力主要来源于欧洲的补库需求、中国制造业的成本优势以及贸易环境变化带来的结 构性机会，增长点集中在新能源汽车、纺织服装、家电等特定品类。 "供应端的核心变量是红海航道是否恢复通航，这将成为决定2026年运力格局的关键。"李海群说，若维 持当前绕行好望角的状态，2026年运力增长将相对温和。得益于新船交付节奏放缓，以及部分新增 ...

价格根据 12 家企业 P 型 M10 单晶硅片、N 型 G10L 单晶硅片、N 型 G12R 单晶硅片、P 型 G 12 单晶硅片、N型G12 单晶硅片的季度产量占比,通过加权平均整理所得（参与价格统计的 1 2 家企业 2025年 4 季度产量占国内单晶硅片总产量的 92.77%)、均为含税价,波动根据前一 周价格比较所得。 "--"表示本周 P 型硅片未成交 智通财经APP获悉，据安泰科统计，本周硅片价格持稳运行。其中，N型G10L单晶硅片 (182*183.75mm/130μm)成交均价在1.31元/片，环比上周持平;N型G12R单晶硅片(182*210mm/130μm)成交 均价在1.42元/片，环比上周持平;N型G12单晶硅片(210*210 mm/130μm)成交均价在1.66元/片，环比上周持 平。据调研了解，本周下游电池片与组件价格延续涨势，其中电池片主流价格0.40-0.42元/W，环比上周 上涨2.50%，组件主流价格0.71-0.75元/W，环比上周上涨4.29%。 本周硅片市场观望情绪较为浓厚，上下游呈僵持博弈局面。尽管在出口退税政策和白银价格飙升影响下， 组件、电池价格持续上涨，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is volatile, with potential price increases in the medium - to - long - term due to strong terminal demand for domestic energy storage projects. The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term but with limited upside. The industrial silicon market has a high inventory and weak demand, and its price may decline [1][7][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 3.89% to 166,740 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although the new energy vehicle sales from January 1st - 11th dropped significantly, the "rush to export" behavior of downstream lithium carbonate enterprises and the resumption of production by some phosphate - iron - lithium enterprises increased demand. On the supply side, some lithium mines in Yichun are facing license replacement and production suspension, causing concerns about supply stability. Most of the inventory is in the hands of traders, and the inventory of smelters and downstream enterprises is low [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious in the short - term, wait for the market to stabilize and then buy at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 fell 1.97% to 49,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7]. - **Core Logic**: Some leading polysilicon enterprises plan to stop production, and the output in February is expected to decline. The demand is expected to increase due to the increase in the production schedule of cells and components from January to February. However, the market will return to cost - based trading after the anti - monopoly news, and high inventory will suppress prices [7][9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 48,670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the subsequent policies of "anti - involution" [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 rose 0.40% to 8,780 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [15]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is decreasing as the southwest production area has a low operating rate and the northwest production area has frequent production - cut news. The demand is weak, and the overall inventory is at a five - year high, so the price may decline [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market is controlled by short - sellers. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 8,605 yuan/ton [15]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell short when the price is high. Refer to the band winner indicator during the 8:30 live broadcast [15].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are experiencing fluctuations in prices due to supply and demand dynamics, with potential impacts from recent policy changes and production adjustments [2][5][12][16]. Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, industrial silicon futures prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract 2605 opening at 8815 CNY/ton and closing at 8745 CNY/ton, a decrease of 35 CNY/ton or 0.4% from the previous day [2]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was reported at 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [2]. - Current prices for industrial silicon in various regions are stable, with prices for 553 silicon in East China ranging from 9200 to 9300 CNY/ton and 421 silicon between 9500 and 9800 CNY/ton [2][12]. Supply Side Dynamics - A major factory in Xinjiang has announced production cuts, which are expected to significantly reduce output in January, potentially benefiting industrial silicon prices [12]. - The overall supply side is expected to tighten, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion if production cuts are effective [12]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for industrial silicon is currently limited due to reduced production in polysilicon and ongoing self-regulation in the organic silicon sector [12]. - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic sector may create upward demand expectations for industrial silicon [12]. Price Outlook - Industrial silicon prices are anticipated to remain within a fluctuating range, supported by rising coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain [13]. - The upward price potential will depend on the recovery of downstream demand and the pace of inventory depletion, while downward pressure is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [13]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, polysilicon futures prices increased, with the main contract 2605 opening at 50650 CNY/ton and closing at 50700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.91% increase from the previous trading day [5]. - Polysilicon inventory has increased to 32.10 thousand tons, a 6.29% rise, while weekly production decreased by 9.66% to 21500 tons [5][14]. Price Stability and Market Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by the recent cancellation of export tax rebates, which may stimulate short-term demand but could compromise long-term demand sustainability [16]. - Short-term strategies suggest a focus on new pricing for silicon wafers and production plans for January, while long-term strategies should monitor demand recovery and inventory depletion [16].

南财智讯1月21日电，爱迪特在投资者关系活动中表示，公司海外市场毛利率高于国内市场，主要原因 一是销往海外的产品结构毛利水平较高，二是海外业务享受出口退税政策优惠，有效降低了综合成本， 进一步提升了毛利率水平。 ...

今日关注 申购提示：今日1只新股申购。 财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"。 财政部发布多项政策，提高个人消费贷贴息标准，实施民间投资专项担保计划。 2．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。概括起 来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持 必要水平，确保总体支出力度只增不减。 3．1月20日，财政部官网同时公布五项财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策，分别从加力提振消费、扩大民 间投资两个方面，推动扩大有效需求。 4．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，本次优化调整个人消费贷款贴息政策，将信用卡账 单分期业务纳入到了贴息范围，取消现有政策当中对一些消费领域的限制。新政策意味着只要是消费贷 款都可以享受贴息。 5．财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明确自 2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税政策调整， 有利于促进资源高效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整，综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，推动经济高 质量发展。 6． ...

Market Analysis - Battery production has shown limited fluctuations this week, with the export tax rebate policy impacting energy storage and overseas ternary battery cell customers significantly. However, energy storage production lines are nearly at full capacity, leading to limited incremental production. The expectation is to maximize output and minimize holiday disruptions, while raw material prices continue to rise, resulting in increased prices for battery cells [1] New Energy Vehicles - According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from January 1 to November 11, 2026, retail sales in the passenger car market reached 328,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 117,000 units, down 38% year-on-year and down 67% compared to the previous month, with a penetration rate of 35.5% for new energy vehicles. In 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 16.626 million and 16.49 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2%. New energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of total new car sales, with domestic sales of 13.875 million units, up 19.8% year-on-year, and domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles at 13.005 million units, up 17.7% year-on-year. New energy commercial vehicle sales reached 871,000 units, up 63.7% year-on-year. Exports of new energy vehicles totaled 2.615 million units, doubling year-on-year, with passenger vehicle exports at 2.532 million units, also doubling year-on-year, and commercial vehicle exports at 83,000 units, up 86.8% year-on-year [2] Energy Storage - This week, domestic energy storage cell prices have increased. Most energy storage cell manufacturers, except for a leading company, have raised their product prices. Following the price increase, the willingness of downstream customers to place orders has decreased, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. The market is currently in a stocking phase. Recent integrated pricing has not seen significant increases, and Company C maintains a high operating rate. The demand for data centers in the U.S. is expected to be between 20-30 GWh this year, indicating a good demand for energy storage. In the ten days leading up to a recent bidding event, 30 GWh was tendered, reflecting a very strong market outlook for the first quarter domestically [3] News (Including Rumors) - CATL holds a domestic market share of approximately 46% and an overseas market share of about 43%. It is expected that after the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate, CATL's overseas market share could increase by 1-2%. The commercial prospects for sodium batteries in recent years have been generally poor, and CATL has not engaged in large-scale procurement of related materials, primarily due to the economic inefficiency and lower energy density compared to lithium batteries. According to the milestone planning for solid-state battery R&D projects, clear equipment procurement demands and bidding actions are not expected until around the first half of 2027 [4]