1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing high - level wide - range oscillations due to geopolitical conflicts and macro - impacts. In March, the supply and demand are both strong, the lithium carbonate industry maintains a de - stocking trend, and prices are supported. However, the terminal demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage still needs verification, and the current market is greatly affected by market sentiment [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 9, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 161,060 yuan/ton, with a 2.94% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 402,478 lots, and the open interest was 330,671 lots (333,903 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,861 lots, a change of 531 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 150,000 - 159,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 500 yuan/ton from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 147,000 - 155,500 yuan/ton, also a change of - 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,200 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory was 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,476 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 906 tons; the downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,736 tons; other inventories were 38,140 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,550 tons. The overall inventory is still in a de - stocking pattern [1] Consumption End - According to Baichuan data, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 16.47% month - on - month, ternary materials by 21.45%, lithium cobaltate by 39.53%, lithium manganate by 6.05%, and lithium hexafluorophosphate by 10.44%. In March, the demand market showed signs of improvement. The demand for power batteries is gradually recovering, and the energy storage field continues to drive, increasing the activity of the downstream market. The "rush - to - export" effect of the export tax - rebate policy adjustment still exists, and some enterprises are accelerating production to deliver overseas orders. After the price decline, the procurement willingness of downstream material factories has increased, and market transactions have improved compared to last week [2] Strategy - The demand for lithium carbonate in materials and battery cells continues to grow rapidly, leading to continuous inventory de - stocking, but the terminal demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage still needs verification. The current market is greatly affected by market sentiment, and short - term interval operations are recommended. For single - side trading, short - term waiting and watching is the main strategy, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to multiple factors, with prices breaking through 180,000 yuan/ton and reaching a new high since September 2023, indicating strong market dynamics [1]. Supply Side - The lithium concentrate market remains at high levels, but trading activity is relatively subdued, with traders adopting a cautious stance due to high prices and ample inventory at downstream lithium salt manufacturers [2]. Demand Side - Several factors are driving strong demand for lithium carbonate, including a decline in export tax rebates prompting "export rush" orders from battery manufacturers, which has increased production rates [3]. - Despite some weakness in the domestic automotive market, particularly in new energy vehicle sales, the overall demand remains robust, supported by ongoing high demand in energy storage projects and favorable international policies for electric vehicle exports [3][4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory is currently below 110,000 tons, indicating a relatively low stock level, which provides price elasticity in response to supply disruptions or demand increases [5][6]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices, influenced by the balance between high production levels and varying demand from different sectors, particularly energy storage and export markets [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the previous panic selling, market sentiment has recovered, and bullish confidence has gradually returned, which is an important reason for the recent rebound of lithium carbonate. Although the demand is in the off - season before the Spring Festival, the expected significant rebound in lithium - battery production in March supports the price increase. Overall, the support of energy - storage demand, the short - term supply tightness, and the strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector will keep the current price at a high level [1] Market Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 149,420 yuan/ton, with a 3.66% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,798 lots, and the open interest was 353,975 lots (the previous trading day's open interest was 356,531 lots). The current basis is - 5,480 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 37,282 lots, a change of 1,755 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, a change of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 4,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,005 US dollars/ton, a change of 25 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory is 102,932 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,531 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,436 tons; the downstream inventory is 44,492 tons, a month - on - month increase of 835 tons; other inventories are 41,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,930 tons. In February, the demand market is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - to - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies in the first quarter, the short - term procurement demand has slowed down [2] Strategy - Currently, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to the position - holding risk. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still good. If the price correction is too large, one can consider going long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the correction is large, consider going long at low prices [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report released on February 12, 2026, focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - EC2604 closed at 1,258.9 points on February 12, up 6.88% from the previous day's close, with a trading volume of 36,394 lots (up 111.54%) and an open interest of 31,021 lots (down 6.07%) [4] - Other contracts also showed varying degrees of price increases, trading volume changes, and open interest adjustments [4] Spread Structure - The spread between different contract months showed fluctuations, such as the EC04 - EC06 spread being -307, up 15.9 [4] Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line was reported at 1,657.94 points on February 6, down 1.06% month - on - month, and the EC2602 delivery settlement price was 1,769.8 points [6] - Most container freight rates showed a downward trend week - on - week and year - on - year, with some exceptions like the SCFIS US West Line showing a 4.93% week - on - week increase [4] Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was $64.79 per barrel, up 1.12% month - on - month and down 10.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month price was $68.95 per barrel, up 0.79% month - on - month and down 9.0% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - The risk of the escalation of the Iranian situation remains. Short - selling funds left the market for risk - avoidance before the holiday, driving the market up [6] - Spot freight rates may remain weak. Some shipping companies' price increase expectations have loosened, and the post - holiday period is still in the off - season [7] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand side is seeing a decline after reaching a peak, and the supply side's weekly average capacity deployment has little change compared to the previous period [7] - Geopolitical factors are volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of European routes in the first half of the year [7] Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Do not hold positions during the holiday and maintain a short - term wait - and - see attitude as the off - season in April does not warrant high expectations [8] - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 6 - 10 positive spread [9] Group 4: Industry News - According to Wall Street Journal, the US Department of Defense has instructed a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East, and the deployment order may be issued within hours [12] - Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has begun according to the AXIOS website [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes several figures, such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [15][20][26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the weakening of macro - sentiment and the chain reaction of liquidity, the lithium carbonate price has experienced a huge shock. In the short term, the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull. The focus is on the post - holiday situation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 134,500, down 9,500; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 131,000, down 9,500 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 1,880, down 10; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 2,875, down 125; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 4,375, down 175; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) average price is 13,000, down 650; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) average price is 13,900, down 900 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 49,770, down 2,305; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 199,000, down 2,500; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 173,500, down 3,000; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 175,500, down 3,000 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,580, down 9,640; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 780, down 500; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,200, down 920 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 105,463, down 2,019; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 18,356, down 647; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 43,657, up 3,058; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,450, down 4,430; the registered warrants (daily, tons) is 33,777, down 10 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 138,350, and the profit is - 5,715; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 136,032, and the profit is - 6,691 [3] Policy and Market News - Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a preferential tariff rate of 6.1% [3] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export refund rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export refund for battery products will be cancelled [3]

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures prices have shown a rapid upward trend since late January, with the market considering 5000 yuan/ton as a "new bottom" price, although a recent price pullback raises questions about whether this is a short-term correction or a signal of a trend reversal [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that there is currently no signal of a trend reversal for PVC prices, with recent declines attributed to market corrections rather than a peak [1] - The market remains focused on whether the price of PVC can further increase, which depends on the recovery of overseas demand and various factors such as policy direction and market sentiment [1] - A slight decrease in PVC export orders has been noted, leading to concerns about the cooling of "strong expectations" in the market [2] Group 2: Export Dynamics and Demand Factors - The decline in export orders is linked to cautious purchasing attitudes from overseas clients, as sustained concentrated buying is not expected [2] - Seasonal and policy factors in the Indian market are affecting procurement rhythms, with some demand being pulled forward due to changes in China's PVC export tax policy [2] - Overseas clients believe that it will be difficult to purchase low-priced Chinese PVC in the future, suggesting a potential gradual increase in international PVC price levels if export tax policies remain stable [2] Group 3: Futures Market Analysis - The strong performance of PVC futures is attributed to three main factors: the impending cancellation of export tax rebates, increased expectations of spring maintenance, and positive sentiment spilling over from the non-ferrous sector [3] - The "window" for concentrated export orders is short, with expectations of a decline in orders post-Chinese New Year due to the holiday and customs clearance cycles [3] - In the medium to long term, PVC futures prices may enter a bottoming cycle, with weak fundamentals limiting price increases, while high production costs restrict downward movement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is entering a seasonal downturn as downstream companies begin to shut down for the Spring Festival, leading to weakened terminal demand. Despite this, glass futures surged by 3.36%, reaching a peak of 1120 yuan/ton with trading volume exceeding 2 million contracts. The market is currently trading on supply contraction expectations rather than fundamental improvements, and future price movements will depend on supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1 - Analysts indicate that some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs, which may lead to reduced output and potential price increases [1]. - The current glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with daily melting capacity of float glass dropping to 151,000 tons, a 14% decrease from the 2024 peak [1]. - The glass industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with most production lines operating at a loss, and a potential shift to a weak supply-demand balance if capacity falls below 150,000 tons [1]. Group 2 - In Hubei, some production lines are undergoing energy transformation from petroleum coke to natural gas and electrification, which may temporarily reduce supply and support price increases [2]. - Unlike previous years, the winter storage market before the Spring Festival is relatively stable, with downstream companies showing low willingness to stockpile due to insufficient orders [2]. - Export performance has been strong, with January glass export orders benefiting from export tax rebate policies [3]. Group 3 - Analysts suggest that market trading logic will shift before and after the Spring Festival, with attention needed on downstream stockpiling intentions before the holiday [4]. - Post-holiday, the focus will be on the recovery of downstream demand, particularly in the real estate sector, as a lack of improvement may limit upward price potential for glass futures [4]. - The overall production costs in the glass industry are likely to rise, with natural gas production lines continuing to operate at a loss, indicating limited potential for significant price declines [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of container shipping has reached its peak in January 2026 and entered a downward channel. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies have successively reduced spot quotes. The SCFI European line reported $1,595 per TEU as of January 23, 2026, and has been falling for three consecutive weeks. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy issued in early January may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices [3][164]. - From the fundamental perspective, on the demand side, the cargo volume has reached its peak and is gradually declining; on the supply side, the weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The capacity in February and March has not changed much. The OA alliance has frequently replaced ships [4][164]. - From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. However, after the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the market expects a phased rush of shipments. Currently, the rush of shipments is less than expected, and continuous tracking is required. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year. The risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated, and follow - up developments should be monitored [4][164]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - The spot price of container shipping reached its peak in January 2026. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies reduced spot quotes, and the spot price entered a rapid downward channel. As of January 23, 2026, the SCFI European line reported $1,595 per TEU, and has been falling for three consecutive weeks. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side shows a decline after the peak of cargo volume, and the supply side has a slight change in capacity. The weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% due to the PA alliance adding a suspended ship and many ship delays at the end of January. The capacity in February and March has not changed much, and the OA alliance has frequently replaced ships. - Seasonally, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the expected phased rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: For the 04 contract, there are many short - term disturbances, there are still differences in the rush - shipment intensity, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If there is a significant increase, the overall idea for the 04 contract is to go short on rallies. - Arbitrage: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [6][165]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the spot price reached its peak and entered a downward channel. The 02 contract gradually shifted from trading expectations to following the spot price and maintained a volatile trend. The far - month contracts fluctuated greatly due to factors such as the rush of shipments, the volatile geopolitical situation, and the unclear expectation of the resumption of flights in the Red Sea. Specifically, at the beginning of the month, the market continued to bet on the peak of the peak - season freight rate, and the EC2602 contract soared above 1,950 points. However, as shipping companies gradually reduced spot quotes, the EC2602 contract weakened. The EC2604 contract was affected by the export tax - rebate policy, and the market continued to bet on the future rush - shipment intensity and the spot price reduction rate, maintaining a wide - range volatile trend. The far - month contracts fluctuated greatly due to different statements of major shipping companies on the resumption of flights and the repeated expectation of the resumption of flights in the Red Sea [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Container Shipping Market Enters the Off - Season and Spot Freight Rates Decline - The container shipping market has entered the traditional off - season, and the spot freight rate has entered a downward channel after reaching its peak. The market is still divided on the future rush - shipment intensity. The rush of shipments brought about by the export tax - rebate may delay the decline rate, but it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of the off - season freight rate. At the beginning of the year, MSK's WK4 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote reached $2,800 per HC, the highest point of this peak season. Subsequently, major shipping companies successively reduced spot quotes, and the spot price is still in a downward channel. In late January, the spot freight rate center has dropped to around $2,400 per FEU. The PA alliance has dropped to around $2,200 per FEU at the end of the month, and the OA alliance, although still at a high level, has also dropped to around $2,600 per FEU. In addition, major shipping companies have recently released February spot freight rates, which continue to decline. Considering that the container shipping market will enter the traditional off - season, it is expected that the spot freight rate will continue to decline. Currently, the rush - shipment intensity is less than expected, so attention should be paid to the rush - shipment intensity of the export tax - rebate policy in Q1 and whether it can delay the decline of future spot freight rates [17]. - In terms of the index, the average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in January was 1,559.79 points (as of the week of January 23), a month - on - month increase of 2.06% compared with the average value in December last year and a year - on - year decrease of 30.46% compared with the average value in January last year. In the week of January 23, the SCFI container comprehensive freight index reported 1,457.86 points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.63%. Among them, the freight rate of Shanghai - US West containers was $2,084 per FEU, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.49%; the freight rate of Shanghai - Europe containers reported $1,595 per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.63% [18]. 3.3.2 Container New - Ship Delivery Volume Increases Significantly at the End of the Year - In December, the global container new - ship delivery volume increased significantly compared with the previous month, reaching 179,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 32.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In terms of new orders, in December 2025, the number of new container orders was 45 ships, with a total of 291,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 41% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%. From the current container order structure, ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU still dominate, and it is expected that a peak of ship deliveries will occur from 2027 [49]. - As of January 2026, the global container capacity has increased to 33.033 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. Among them, the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU is 13.139 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU is 4.866 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 6.05%; the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 8,000 TEU is 19.8107 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. According to the container delivery forecast schedule (excluding ship dismantling), from 2026, there are about 1.2258 million TEU of 8,000 - TEU + container ships to be delivered in 1 - 12 months, of which the delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU is about 975,700 TEU, still dominating [50]. 3.3.3 China's Export Data in December Ended Strongly and the Export Structure Continued to Differentiate - In December, China's exports showed resilience under multiple challenges, and the structural feature of stronger external demand than domestic demand continued. The overall growth exceeded expectations. According to customs data, China's exports in December were $357.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. However, the market performance was significantly differentiated. Exports to traditional markets such as the United States continued to be under pressure, while exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Africa and some surrounding regions grew strongly. In terms of regions, affected by high - tariff policies, high bases, and the fading of the "rush - export" effect, exports to the United States continued to decline significantly. In December, the decline in exports to the United States widened to 30%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU were still the main supports. In December, exports to the EU increased by 11.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down compared with the previous month, and the growth rate to ASEAN rebounded to 11.2%, which was a key stabilizer for China's export growth [128]. - In terms of export categories, the export structure showed a significant trend of upgrading towards new and high - tech products. High - tech, electromechanical, and green products were the core growth drivers, while traditional labor - intensive products continued to drag down. Specifically, in December, the growth rate of high - tech products was 16.6%, the export growth rate of electromechanical products was 12.1%, and the export growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. Among them, categories such as clothing, furniture, and toys generally had negative growth and weakened competitiveness [128]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The spot price of container shipping has reached its peak in January 2026 and entered a downward channel. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies have successively reduced spot quotes. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side shows a decline after the peak of cargo volume, and the supply side has a slight change in capacity. The weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The capacity in February and March has not changed much. - Seasonally, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the expected phased rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated [164]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see for the 04 contract. Arbitrage: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [165].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot freight rates in the container shipping market are in a downward trend during the off - season, and the rush of shipments due to export tax rebates is less than expected, making it difficult to reverse the decline. The EC2604 contract has a discount, and the subsequent spot situation should be monitored. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is still difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year. The risk of the Iranian situation remains, so short - term unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage should be held [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Route) - **Futures Market** - Different futures contracts of the container freight index (European route) have different closing prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,717.5 points, down 9.2 points or - 0.53%, with a trading volume of 984.0 lots (up 74.16%) and an open interest of 3,495.0 lots (down 17.28%) [4]. - The month - spread structure also shows different price differences and their changes. For example, the price difference between EC02 - EC04 is 524, down 2.9 [4]. - **Container Freight Rates** - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline on a weekly basis. For example, the SCFIS European route index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86 points, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs** - The prices of WTI crude oil near - month and Brent crude oil near - month also show declines. The WTI crude oil near - month price is 60.64 dollars/barrel, down 0.57% week - on - week and 17.89% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 64.9 dollars/barrel, down 0.83% week - on - week and 16.2% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis** - The spot freight rates are in the off - season decline, and the rush of shipments due to the export tax rebate policy is less than expected. The 1/23 SCFI European route quote is 1595 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European route quote on Monday after the market is 1859.31 points, down 4.9% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [6]. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side is seeing a decline in cargo volume after reaching a peak, and the supply side shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity in Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports this week, with little change in February and March. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract, differences in the rush of shipments, and the unresolved risk of the Iranian situation, unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US President Trump said that the Iranian situation is "changing rapidly", and he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he believes that Iran wants to reach an agreement [12]. - The US will increase tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's non - approval of the trade agreement [12]. - India plans to significantly reduce the import tariff on EU cars from a maximum of 110% to 40%, and the future tariff may be further reduced to 10%, which may lead to the signing of a free trade agreement with the EU [12]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the SCFIS European route index and SCFIS US - West route index, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates of Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [14][15][24].

Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate market price has returned to 170,000 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in market activity following a drop to 150,000 yuan/ton, indicating market acceptance of the new price level [7] - The domestic lithium battery market is expected to see stable prices in the first quarter, with a projected year-on-year production decline of only 10-15%, which is better than previous years [15] Market Insights - In 2025, China's automobile sales are projected to reach 34.4 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for 50.8% of domestic sales [3] - The Congo government has submitted a shortlist of state-owned mineral assets to the U.S., aiming to attract investment and enhance its influence in the critical mineral supply chain [4] Company Developments - Wanrun New Energy plans to invest 1.079 billion yuan in a high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate project, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons per year [5] - Putailai has forecasted a net profit of 230 to 240 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90% [6] Price Trends - As of January 22, 2025, the price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 161,000 to 168,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade is between 147,000 to 153,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price for ternary materials is experiencing fluctuations, driven by the rise in lithium carbonate prices, with 5-series single crystal materials priced at 195,000 to 202,000 yuan/ton [9] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of phosphoric acid is expected to be tight this year, influencing the pricing and availability of lithium iron phosphate [10] - The electrode material market is stable, with some small and medium manufacturers increasing prices for mid- to low-end products by 1,000 to 2,000 yuan/ton [12] Future Outlook - The global lithium battery application market is anticipated to grow significantly from 2025 to 2029, with ongoing research and competitive strategy analysis being conducted [18]