2025年11月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约 | 8 | | 花生：关注现货 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） 8,486 | 涨跌幅 -0.75% | 收盘价（夜盘） 8,454 | 涨跌幅 -0.38% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,168 | -0.27% | 8,174 | 0.07% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,778 | -0.39% | 9,788 | 0.10% | | 期货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,055 | -0 ...

欧盟需求刺激下，SAF 价格持续上涨 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 16 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 郭雪环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 吴柏莹环保行业分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 欧盟需求刺激下，SAF 价格持续上涨 2025 年 11 月 16 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] ➢ 行情 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, with combined operating revenue, interest, and investment income of $43.6 million, compared to approximately $2 million in the same quarter last year, marking an increase of approximately $41 million [11][12] - The loss from operations was $3.7 million, while non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was a positive $6.6 million, an increase of approximately $23 million from last year's adjusted EBITDA of negative $16.7 million [11][12] - Gevo North Dakota generated income from operations of $12.3 million and a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $17.8 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gevo North Dakota is now a core earnings engine, demonstrating reliable energy production, efficient carbon capture, and consistent monetization of clean fuel production credits [13] - Gevo R&G generated income from operations of $0.5 million and positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully sold all of its 2025 Section 45(z) clean fuel production credits for a total of $52 million, with net proceeds of approximately $29 million received so far [13][14] - The company expects to grow its carbon dioxide removal (CDR) sales from $1 million in Q2 to $3-$5 million by the end of 2025 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize adjusted EBITDA from existing assets and plans to build a jet fuel plant at Gevo North Dakota, which could add an additional adjusted EBITDA uplift of about $150 million [9][10] - The company is focusing on monetizing carbon value through various methods, including selling carbon credits and production tax credits, as part of its business model [6][7] - The company is also working on expanding its carbon capture and sequestration capabilities and optimizing energy use at its facilities [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the business environment in North Dakota, highlighting its pro-agriculture and pro-energy stance, which aligns well with the company's operations [6] - The management believes that the integration of ethanol production and carbon sequestration is crucial for achieving the best economics and carbon scores for jet fuel [30] - The company anticipates that its operating cash flows will normalize and trend towards break-even or better in the coming quarters [15] Other Important Information - The company has implemented Verity, a digital carbon tracking and verification platform, at its Gevo North Dakota facility, which is expected to enhance transparency and trust in carbon accounting [21][22] - The company has partnered with Frontier Infrastructure Holdings to offer integrated carbon management solutions for ethanol producers [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the incremental capital and steps required to optimize your operation and a reasonable timeline to achieve $110 million of EBITDA? - Management indicated that incremental capital is estimated to be around $15 million, focusing on debottlenecking the ethanol plant and optimizing energy use [34][35] Question: Can you elaborate on the DOE loan extension and how it increases the likelihood of DOE financing? - Management noted that the shift of the DOE loan guarantee to North Dakota is favorable due to the existing profitable operations and infrastructure [38][39] Question: Can you provide insight into the EBITDA drivers for next year? - Management highlighted that growth will primarily come from carbon sequestration capacity expansion and debottlenecking efforts [43][44] Question: How should we project the incremental CI improvement over the next number of quarters? - Management explained that the CI score is expected to drop due to the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will increase 45Z generation [75][76]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Lack of drivers, focus on short - term support [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans decline, slow regression of soybean - palm oil spread [2] - Soybean meal: Trade sentiment fluctuates, stay on the sidelines [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Short - term bullish [2] - Sugar: Weak operation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to external market impacts [2] - Eggs: In an adjustment phase [2] - Pigs: Inventory accumulation continues, wait for the release of spot contradictions [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the actions of oil mills [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's day - session closing price rose 1.65%, night - session fell 0.60%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.61%, night - session fell 0.12%. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Argentina's oilseed workers reached a wage agreement with soybean processing enterprises, avoiding a strike [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2601's day - session rose 1.69%, night - session rose 0.19%; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session rose 0.95%, night - session fell 0.39%. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had slight changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 6, CBOT soybeans fell due to limited Chinese demand. Citi expects China to resume large - scale purchases of US soybeans in the long run [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn's C2601 day - session rose 0.75%, night - session rose 0.09%; C2603 day - session rose 0.88%, night - session rose 0.14%. The price of Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Guangdong Shekou's increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: Raw sugar price is 14.19 cents/pound, up 0.08. Mainstream spot price is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's September sugar production increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's September sugar imports were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2601 day - session fell 0.07%, night - session fell 0.15%; CY2601 day - session rose 0.25%, night - session fell 0.03%. Spot prices of cotton in different regions had slight declines [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was dull, and ICE cotton futures fell due to events in the US [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2512 rose 1.93%, egg 2601 rose 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions were stable or had slight changes [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [30]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, up 100; Sichuan's is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's is 12,460 yuan/ton, down 100 [32]. - **Market Information**: In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK601 fell 0.21%, PK603 fell 0.33%. Spot prices of peanuts in different regions had declines or were stable [37]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply was low, trading was inactive, and prices were stable or weak [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The domestic SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) market has seen a significant price increase of 46.7% year-to-date, which is higher than the 9.4% increase in UCO (Used Cooking Oil) prices, indicating improved profitability for companies in this sector [2][6][18] - The demand for biodiesel in the Asia-Pacific region is driving a notable increase in China's biodiesel exports, particularly in Q3 2025, which saw a 15.0% year-on-year growth [7][25] - The report suggests focusing on raw material suppliers and processing companies, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, as the industry shows an upward trend in profitability and demand [2][9] Summary by Sections SAF & HVO - Four domestic companies have received export approval for a total capacity of 1.16 million tons of SAF, with the second batch of export whitelist being established in October 2025 [6][17] - The price of European FOB SAF has increased by 46.7% this year, leading to a favorable outlook for company profitability as the price gap between products and raw materials continues to widen [6][18] Biodiesel - China's biodiesel exports reached 647,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 27.5% year-on-year, but Q3 2025 saw a significant recovery with a 15.0% year-on-year increase [7][25] - The average export price of biodiesel in Q3 2025 was $1,152 per ton, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year increase [7][25] UCO - In Q3 2025, China's UCO exports totaled 635,000 tons, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year, attributed to the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024 [8][37] - The average export price for UCO in Q3 2025 was $1,082 per ton, up 19.7% year-on-year, driven by increased international demand due to EU regulations [8][37] Market Outlook - The report anticipates further supportive policies for the domestic market, particularly in renewable energy consumption targets, which will benefit the biodiesel sector [9][47] - The SAF industry is expected to grow significantly as multiple countries implement blending targets and incentives, transitioning from planning to actual demand [9][47]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector, particularly in the development of molecular sieve catalysts necessary for the isomerization and de-waxing processes in SAF production [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Focus - The company has completed the development and reserve of various molecular sieve materials, with catalysts performing well in long-term industrial raw material operations [1] - The company does not directly produce SAF fuel but aims to provide high-performance, import-substitutable key catalytic materials for SAF production enterprises and related technology providers [1] - The company plans to increase R&D investment in renewable resources, leveraging its core advantages in molecular sieve material development and large-scale production to promote industrial applications in SAF and other clean energy sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The SAF industry is transitioning from being policy-driven to market-oriented, with continuous improvement in industry prosperity [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company has achieved a significant turnaround, with a revenue of 3.005 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 189.39%, and a net profit of 53 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a return to profitability [1][4][13] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry, with a strong production capacity and technological advantages, particularly after obtaining SAF export licenses in May 2025 [2][3][11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in January 2003, focuses on the research, production, and sales of bio-based plasticizers and biomass energy, with SAF becoming its main product since 2025 [2][10] - The company has built the first domestic 500,000-ton SAF production line using Honeywell technology, which is expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.707 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 511.45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105.28% [1][4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.15%, while the net margin was -0.83% [1][4] Industry Outlook - The SAF industry is expected to grow significantly, with Europe mandating a 2% SAF blending requirement starting in 2025, which is projected to increase to 6% by 2030 [3][20] - The European SAF market is currently facing a supply-demand gap, with consumption expected to reach 1.9 million tons in 2023, while production capacity is only around 1 million tons [3][25] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 4.465 billion yuan, 7.005 billion yuan, and 9.608 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 87 million yuan, 465 million yuan, and 703 million yuan [4][39] - The expected EPS for the same period is 1.13 yuan, 6.05 yuan, and 9.15 yuan per share [4][39] Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 97.75 and 121.00 yuan, based on both absolute and relative valuation methods [4][46]

Core Insights - The global business aviation sector is experiencing unprecedented growth, with a projected demand for new business jets reaching a total delivery value of $283 billion over the next decade [2] - The report forecasts the delivery of 8,500 new business jets from now until 2035, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 3% [2] - Key drivers of this market surge include the rise of fractional ownership models and favorable tax policies in the U.S. [3] Market Dynamics - The fractional ownership model has significantly contributed to the increase in aircraft demand, with fleets managed by fractional ownership operators growing by 65% since 2019, reaching around 1,300 aircraft [3] - U.S. tax policies, particularly the "100% bonus depreciation" provision, are influencing procurement plans, allowing companies to deduct the full cost of business jets from taxable income in the year of purchase [3] - Global operator confidence is reflected in order data, with 20% of operators indicating they hold at least one confirmed aircraft order, up from 17% in 2024 [3] Usage Trends - Business jet usage frequency is steadily increasing, with 91% of operators expecting flight hours in 2026 to be the same or higher than in 2025 [4] - Total flight hours for business jets globally have increased by 3%, reversing a stagnation observed between 2023 and 2024 [4] - North America is projected to receive approximately 70% of new business jet deliveries over the next three years, maintaining its dominance in the market [4] Buyer Preferences - Buyers' procurement criteria are shifting, with aircraft performance metrics surpassing purchase cost as the primary consideration for operators [5] - 89% of respondents prioritize performance among their top three decision-making criteria, while only 56% consider cost [5] - Sustainability is increasingly influencing purchasing decisions, with 81% of operators believing that developing more fuel-efficient aircraft is key to achieving carbon reduction goals [5] Industry Outlook - The report, based on macroeconomic analysis and a survey of 312 non-fractional ownership operators managing 1,199 business jets, provides critical insights for industry development [6] - Although historical data suggests that forecasts may sometimes be slightly optimistic, the anticipated introduction of new aircraft models and a stable global economy support the optimistic outlook for the business aviation sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The improvement of the near-consumption pricing mechanism for renewable energy will facilitate the direct connection of green electricity, benefiting waste-to-energy projects [9][10] - The price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has reached a new high in Europe, positively impacting UCO and SAF producers in China [11][12] - The solid waste sector has seen significant acceleration in national subsidies for recycling, leading to improved cash flow and dividend payouts [15][16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a positive trend with the implementation of new pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, which will enhance the economic viability of waste-to-energy projects [9][10] - The SAF market in Europe is tightening, leading to increased prices and benefiting UCO and SAF producers in China [11][12] Solid Waste Sector - National subsidies for recycling have accelerated significantly, with a reported 2.064 billion yuan received in July-August 2025, surpassing the previous year's figures [15] - The solid waste sector is seeing improvements in return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, with a focus on operational efficiency and reduced financial costs [15][16] Water Sector - The water sector is poised for growth with expected improvements in cash flow and dividend payouts, similar to trends observed in the waste-to-energy sector [19][20] - Recent water price reforms in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen are anticipated to drive further growth in the sector [19] Sanitation Equipment - The sales of sanitation vehicles have increased, with a notable rise in the penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles, reaching 16.14% [22][23] - The market for electric sanitation vehicles is expanding rapidly, with sales growth of 77.55% in the first seven months of 2025 [22][23] Biofuel Sector - The average price of waste cooking oil has decreased, leading to an increase in profit margins for biofuel producers [32] - The biofuel market is expected to remain stable, with ongoing demand for waste oils and limited supply growth [32] Lithium Battery Recycling - The profitability of lithium battery recycling is improving as the prices of lithium carbonate and other materials decline [33][34]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected growth and strategic developments [3][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 378 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.33%, and a net profit of 49 million yuan, up 4.91% year-on-year [3]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 201 million yuan, reflecting an 8.32% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising significantly by 57.60% to 23 million yuan [3][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing cost control to maintain operational stability amid industry fluctuations [4]. - The Thai base has emerged as a new growth engine, with revenue from this segment reaching 57.47 million yuan, a 47.89% increase year-on-year [5]. - The planned acquisition of Shanghai Hanheng Energy is expected to strengthen the company's capabilities in providing integrated solutions in the petrochemical and energy sectors [6]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 891 million yuan, 1.021 billion yuan, and 1.169 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.45%, 14.51%, and 14.56% [8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 109 million yuan, 128 million yuan, and 147 million yuan, with growth rates of 45.72%, 17.28%, and 14.79% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.09 yuan, 1.28 yuan, and 1.47 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29.78, 25.39, and 22.12 [8]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its product offerings in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), carbon capture, and other emerging fields, which are expected to contribute to future growth [5]. - The integration of material customization, equipment matching, and process package delivery is a strategic focus, aiming to create a comprehensive service model for the energy and chemical industries [6].