华安证券主要观点如下： 综合整治内卷式竞争，积极把握周期反转机会 国产替代引领成长主线，布局正当时 智通财经APP获悉，华安证券发布研报称，2026年全球宏观面临极大不确定性，在全球贸易格局重塑、 化工资本开支放缓的情况下，该行建议关注两大确定性较高的投资主线：反内卷与国产替代。25年受上 游大宗能源价格下降及化工品供需承压影响，中国化工产品价格指数回落至低位。 生物基材料受国家政策大力扶持，企业加速技术突破与产业化，从生物基单体到复材制品的国产化生态 逐步成形;润滑油添加剂国内企业加速技术突破，战略转型成效显著，多款高端产品通过国际认证，进 出口结构逆转国产替代进入快车道;全球显示面板市场稳定增长，国内企业加速推进材料升级迭代及材 料研发，国产化进程显著加速;电子陶瓷海外厂商三超多强，MLCC国产突破伴随AI/汽车需求转暖，供 需向好;氟化液3M退出市场格局重塑，液冷与半导体制造需求正盛，看好国产厂商市场占有率提升;AI服 务器爆发性增长，电子级聚苯醚凭借优异介电性能成为关键材料，国内厂商实现技术突破并量产，进入 头部供应链，国产替代提速;晶圆产能全球进入扩张周期，电子化学品作为必须耗材在制程提升与产能 扩 ...

国泰期货认为，2025年四季度政策督促与市场亏损刺激产能去化，但是，仍未见恐慌情绪。伴随亏损加 剧及政策推进，未来有望初步体现去产能效果，供应总量同比转降。需求端，2026年上半年价格中枢较 低，但是，恰逢季节性淡季，亏损阶段行业现金流收紧，需求弹性减弱，若恐慌底出现后，2026年下半 年市场情绪回暖，博取周期反转的投机需求将得到提振，届时弹性或释放。 本次反倾销税政策的落地，为处于周期底部的生猪养殖业带来了明确的积极信号。投资布局上，建议遵 循"养殖先行，动保饲料随后"的产业链传导逻辑，并密切关注能繁母猪存栏、猪价及企业月度销售等高 频数据以验证趋势。 12月16日，商务部发布终裁公告，裁定原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品存在倾销，并决定自2025 年12月17日起，对欧盟上述进口产品征收反倾销税，税率为4.9%-19.8%，实施期限5年。 商务部新闻发言人16日在答记者问时表示，当前，国内产业经营困难，要求保护的呼声强烈。在此背景 下，商务部依法依规开展调查，广泛听取各利害关系方意见，充分保障各方权利，客观、公平、公正得 出调查结论。裁决报告表明，自欧盟进口的相关猪肉及猪副产品存在倾销，给中国国内产业造 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 政策与市场双轮驱动，有望迎周期拐点 ---2026 年生猪期货年度行情展望 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001894 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2025 年产业新格局基本形成，集团延续增量趋势，育种端口利润扩大，规模场及散户部分转为专业育肥模式， 放养模式大幅扩张，市场灵活性再度增强，原料及管理的双驱动带动成本中枢进一步下移。2026 年上半年供应增量趋势难 改，现货价格将寻周期底，若跌破现金流成本，或刺激产能淘汰加速；2026 年下半年库存周期处于低位，三季度投机补库需 求托底，四季度常规需求抬升，价格中枢较上半年或上移，给出微利格局判断。 我们的逻辑：供给端，2025 年四季度政策督促与市场亏损刺激产能去化，但是，仍未见恐慌情绪，对于 2026 年三季度的整 体供应影响有限，伴随亏损加剧及政策推进，四季度有望初步体现去产能效果，供应总量同比转降；需求端，2026 年上半年 价格中枢较低，但是，恰逢季节性淡季，亏损阶段行业现金流收紧，需求弹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dry bulk shipping market is entering a new cycle driven by supply constraints, demand growth, and geopolitical factors, with structural opportunities emerging in the industry [4][7][8]. Supply Side - The dry bulk fleet is experiencing significant supply tightness, with the order book for 2025 representing only 11% of total capacity, the lowest in 25 years [9]. - The scrapping of old ships is intensifying, with the expected scrapping volume increasing from 4.7 million deadweight tons in 2024 to 6.6 million in 2025, and projected to reach 9.7 million in 2026 [9]. - New ship orders have plummeted by 89.5%, leading to a low growth rate in overall industry capacity [9]. Demand Side - The West African Simandou iron ore project is a key demand driver, with potential production of 120 million tons of iron ore, significantly increasing transportation distances and demand for dry bulk shipping [10]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to boost commodity trade, lowering costs for companies to stockpile and expand, which in turn is likely to increase dry bulk shipping demand [10]. - Geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade routes, indirectly increasing shipping demand by lengthening transport distances for certain commodities [11]. Shipping Cycle Forecast - Short-term (H1 2026): The market will be in a "game period" with Cape-sized vessels benefiting the most from the new demand, while traditional cargo types may struggle [13]. - Mid-term (H2 2026 - 2027): The market is expected to enter a main upward wave as the Simandou project ramps up production and interest rate cuts continue to support demand [14]. - Long-term (Post-2028): The market will shift towards a "cycle dividend + transformation premium" phase, with a focus on green transformation and diversified cargo types [15]. Investment Opportunities - Cape-sized vessel operators are positioned to benefit directly from the increased shipments from the Simandou project, making them core targets during the upward cycle [18]. - Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation are significant players in the dry bulk market, with large fleets that can capitalize on rising freight rates [19]. - Companies involved in green ship conversion and operation are expected to gain valuation premiums due to stricter environmental policies [20]. Market Dynamics - The current dry bulk cycle differs from previous cycles (2008 and 2016) due to structural demand increases and institutional supply constraints, leading to a more differentiated and sustainable market [21]. - To capitalize on this opportunity, a focus on specific segments and precise understanding of industry logic and vessel supply-demand dynamics is essential [22].

社保基金投资罕见受挫，竟被一只2元股价股票"困住" 提到社保基金，大家都觉得是"稳赚不赔"的代名词——毕竟这是咱们几亿人的养老钱、救命钱，投资风格向来以稳健著称，重仓的也都是比亚迪、三一重工 这类行业龙头。根据全国社保基金理事会2025年披露数据，过去10年它仅在2022年出现0.7%的微幅亏损，2025年年内收益率仍达5.2%，风险调整后收益远 超头部私募基金。但最近却爆出个罕见情况：社保基金被一只股价低至2元的股票"困住"，持仓浮亏明显，这让不少人疑惑："国家队"怎么会踩上这类低价 绩差股的坑？ 熟悉社保基金的人都知道，它选股向来"挑肥拣瘦"，2025年三季度重仓的三一重工、比亚迪等，要么业绩同比增长40%以上，要么是新能源、高端制造领域 的核心标的 。这次选择这只2元绩差股，看似反常，实则暗藏官方投资逻辑： 首先是周期反转预期。钢铁行业属于强周期行业，社保基金作为"耐心资本"，倾向于在行业底部布局有资源优势的龙头企业，赌的是未来供需格局改善后的 估值修复 。这只股票虽短期亏损，但手握核心铁矿资源，生产能力稳居行业前列，具备周期反转的基础条件。 其次是支持国家战略。2025年国家强调发展新质生产力，钢铁行 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Livestock Industry Industry Overview - The livestock industry, particularly the pork sector, is facing structural challenges with a projected supply gap for fresh meat in 2023-2024, making leading companies like YouRan Agriculture attractive for investment due to their market position and low valuations [1][2][4] - The swine sector is transitioning from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a notable increase in piglet prices in Q1 2025 leading to a stock price rebound, followed by a market slowdown and a drop in pork prices below cost levels [1][6] Key Companies and Recommendations - **Pork Sector**: - **Mu Yuan Co., Ltd.**: Recommended for its value foundation, cyclical momentum, and growth potential [1][3][4] - **De Kang Agriculture**: Noted for its first-tier breeding level and third-tier valuation, considered a strategic recommendation [1][3] - **Wens Foodstuff Group**: Favored for its stability [1][3] - **Feed Sector**: - **Hai Da Group**: Achieved steady growth through dual domestic and international market drivers [1][3] - **Broiler Chicken Sector**: - **Li Hua Co., Ltd.**: Excelled in cost control [1][5] - **Sheng Nong Development**: Enhanced market competitiveness through its full industry chain advantages [1][5] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The pork industry is in a critical phase of capacity reduction, with policies and market forces enhancing expectations for a cyclical reversal. Leading companies like Mu Yuan maintain profitability and reduce debt while increasing dividends [4][6] - For 2026, the industry is expected to see: - Insufficient proactive capacity reduction but significant slowdown in capacity growth - Clear cost differentiation between large enterprises and small to medium-sized farms - Re-evaluation of valuations and investment value, with policies aimed at controlling production capacity becoming more stringent [6][7] Investment Strategy - The core strategy for the agricultural sector in 2026 focuses on selecting individual stocks for stable returns while waiting for broader market gains. The meat cattle sector is highlighted for its potential [2] - Specific investment recommendations include: - **Mu Yuan Co., Ltd.**: Identified as a top pick due to its excellent quality, significant market potential (valued over 300 billion), innovative technology, and strong sustainable profitability [7] - Other companies with value potential include Wens Foodstuff and De Kang Agriculture, with De Kang noted for its quality-price advantage during valuation recovery phases [7] Additional Insights - The overall livestock market is experiencing significant changes, with a nationwide reduction in production already underway and winter demand expected to support marginal demand increases [6] - The low valuations and high capital influx into the pork sector highlight its investment value [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment logic in the chemical sector focuses on a dual resonance of "cyclical reversal + emerging demand stimulation" [1] Group 1: Investment Themes - The chemical sector is centered around three main themes: rising energy storage demand driving industry chain prosperity, ongoing "anti-involution" efforts leading to price recovery, and certain sub-sectors experiencing high prosperity cycles [1] - The lithium battery upstream material supply-demand pattern may be reshaped, with key recommendations including lithium hexafluorophosphate, iron phosphate, and lithium iron phosphate [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Production Adjustments - The chemical industry has recently entered a price increase phase, with MDI sector supply sharply reduced due to maintenance of several core facilities [1] - The organic silicon and caprolactam industries are implementing production cuts to stabilize prices, with caprolactam producers agreeing to a 20% reduction and a price increase of 100 yuan per ton [1] - The organic silicon industry is seeing production cuts of up to 30% and price increases of 10-20% [1] - Leading titanium dioxide companies have raised domestic prices by 700 yuan per ton and international prices by 100 USD per ton [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is characterized by a wide range of sub-sectors with high complexity and relatively small average market capitalizations, leading to rapid rotations among sub-sectors [1] - Investors are advised to consider the chemical leader ETF (516220) to capture investment opportunities in the chemical sector, which tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index covering 50 leading chemical stocks [1] - The ETF includes both traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth tracks, allowing for comprehensive capture of investment logic in the chemical sector [1]

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 在此背景下，头部房企的盈利模式已实现重构："现在龙头企业拿地后，半年内即可完成大部分销售， 新推盘项目的净利润率能稳定在10%以上。"李蓓强调，这种盈利韧性并非个例，而是供给侧出清、竞 争格局改善、市场份额向头部集中后的必然结果，"在这些看似寒冬的行业里，龙头企业已经偷偷开出 了盈利的花朵"。 对于市场普遍关注的经济拐点与通缩突围问题，李蓓给出了充满信心的预判："这就是我所说的'小确 幸'——即便在市场最差的阶段，优势企业依然能提供接近10%的ROE回报。虽然大家对走出通缩、迎 来经济拐点的具体时间存在分歧，但我始终相信'没有一个春天不会到来'，无非是早晚几个季度的差 异。" 她进一步展望："当真正的春天来临，当前这些寒冬中星星点点的盈利小花，必将绽放为满园春色，龙 头企业的盈利弹性与估值修复空间将全面释放。"这番论述既印证了其此前对龙头ROE筑底的判断，也 为投资者揭示了行业分化背景下的核心投资机会，引发现场对周期反转与龙头价值的深度热议。 责任编辑：常福强 11月28日，2025分析师大会现场，半夏投资创始人李蓓在主题演讲中继续深化"寒冬寻花"的投资逻辑， ...

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 李蓓直指当前房地产市场的分化现实："近期某房企债券展期后，已长期丧失拿地能力。曾经三四十家 企业围标一块土地的激烈竞争场景已成过往，如今土地市场仅剩四五家头部房企具备拿地实力。"这一 格局转变带来了关键变化——龙头企业对地方政府的议价权大幅提升，"市场下行的压力几乎全部通过 地价下降、规划条件优化等方式转嫁给地方政府"。 在此背景下，头部房企的盈利模式已实现重构："现在龙头企业拿地后，半年内即可完成大部分销售， 新推盘项目的净利润率能稳定在10%以上。"李蓓强调，这种盈利韧性并非个例，而是供给侧出清、竞 争格局改善、市场份额向头部集中后的必然结果，"在这些看似寒冬的行业里，龙头企业已经偷偷开出 了盈利的花朵"。 对于市场普遍关注的经济拐点与通缩突围问题，李蓓给出了充满信心的预判："这就是我所说的'小确 幸'——即便在市场最差的阶段，优势企业依然能提供接近10%的ROE回报。虽然大家对走出通缩、迎 来经济拐点的具体时间存在分歧，但我始终相信'没有一个春天不会到来'，无非是早晚几个季度的差 异。" 她进一步展望："当真正的春天来临，当前这些寒冬中星星点点的盈利小花 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming industry is expected to experience a resonance of cycles and growth opportunities by 2026, with the swine sector reaching a critical point of de-stocking, leading to potential value recovery for cost-leading enterprises. The beef industry is projected to maintain a high prosperity cycle until 2027, while the poultry sector shows a clear upward price trend due to supply contraction [1]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is witnessing a significant slowdown in production capacity due to ongoing losses and declining pig prices, reaching a de-stocking critical point. Leading companies with low-cost advantages are expected to realize value release, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture. Smaller pig farming companies with growth potential are also suggested for attention [2]. Beef Sector - The beef sector is in a high prosperity cycle, with slow supply recovery and rising global beef prices driven by import policy restrictions. The main upward wave of the cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with recommendations for companies such as Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3]. Poultry Sector - In the poultry sector, the yellow chicken segment is experiencing capacity de-stocking due to continuous losses, although parent stock remains high. Companies with rapid capacity expansion and strong cost control, such as Lihua Agricultural Science and Technology, are favored. The white feather chicken segment is awaiting a cycle reversal, with recommendations for integrated leaders like Shennong Development and upstream chick leaders like Yisheng Livestock and Poultry [4]. Feed Sector - The feed sector emphasizes cost control and industry chain extension, focusing on companies with strong cost management capabilities and established overseas operations. Recommended companies include Haida Group and Bangji Technology [5]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector highlights the importance of research and innovation, recommending companies that can avoid price wars. Key focuses include product layout in the pet segment and breakthroughs in high-value pet pharmaceuticals. Recommended companies include Reap Bio, which benefits from the recovery of livestock prices, and companies like Kexin Bio, Plank Bio, and Zhongmu Bio with strong competitive advantages [6]. Planting Industry - The planting industry is expected to see grain prices stabilize, influenced by high production and inventory levels. Grain security remains a priority, with a shift from cyclical to growth valuations in the seed industry. Recommended companies include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with attention to seed companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech [7]. Pet Industry - The pet industry is thriving, driven by domestic demand and exports, with rapid growth of domestic brands. Key companies to watch include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [8].