1987年，国内改开的浪潮席卷而来。面对这难得的机遇，当时在中科院广州分院任职的年轻科研人员徐 金富，毅然选择了下海创业。 彼时，国内经济刚刚开始蓬勃发展，洗发水、沐浴露等日用品逐渐走入千家万户，而这刚好对上了徐金 富的专业，其与搭档、蓝月亮创始人罗秋平一道，靠着自建研发体系在日用化学赛道成功杀出一条血 路，并借助蓝月亮的成功赚到了人生中的第一桶金。 不过，由于后来研发医药中间体失败，徐金富的第一桶金很快就烧没了。1995年，徐金富重返广州，从 日用化学材料这个"老本行"重新开始，并在2000年投资510万元，创立了广州市天赐高新材料科技有限 公司，即如今天赐材料的前身。凭借多年积累下来的经验和人脉，徐金富稳扎稳打，接连拿下宝洁、欧 莱雅、联合利华等国际巨头订单，天赐材料也逐渐成为中国日化原料的隐形冠军。 随着日化原料生意越做越大，徐金富敏锐地察觉到锂离子电池与新能源汽车行业蕴含着巨大的商业前 景，最终徐金富决定将天赐材料引入新能源市场，并将业务定在了锂电池电解液的研发和生产领域。 正是徐金富当年选择入局锂电池电解液市场的决定，才造就了今天"电解液巨头"。 大起大落 电解液产品中，最核心的材料莫过于六氟磷酸锂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a technology-led cycle, with three key directions for medium to long-term investment: cyclical reversal, growth emergence, and overseas expansion [2] Group 1: Cyclical Reversal - The cyclical sector is expected to see improved profitability and cash flow, driven by technological iteration and innovation [2] - The shipbuilding industry is entering a new cycle due to the long lifespan of ships (approximately 20 years) and the trend towards new energy and environmental protection [3][4] - The recovery of the engineering machinery sector is analyzed through a "three-step recovery" framework, including high export growth, the initiation of a domestic renewal cycle, and stabilization of the real estate market [5][6][7] - The "three-step recovery" will collectively drive a reversal in the engineering machinery industry [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability and cash flow in industries like photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment, enabling technological innovation [8] Group 2: Growth Emergence - The current market cycle is led by artificial intelligence (AI), with a long industrial chain encompassing various applications and hardware [9] - The humanoid robot sector is identified as a promising area, with expectations for large-scale production by 2026 [9] - Investment strategies for humanoid robots should focus on industry leaders and undervalued companies that may transition from "interns" to "full-time employees" within the supply chain [10] Group 3: Overseas Expansion - Chinese companies are pursuing global expansion to mitigate single-market risks and tap into new growth opportunities [11][12] - The investment framework for export-oriented companies should consider whether their products are consumer or capital goods and identify core export markets, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [13] - The emergence of "multinational companies with Chinese genes" is anticipated, which will benefit from diversified capacity allocation and open up new growth ceilings [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Views - The mechanical equipment industry is experiencing a cyclical rebound with growth in engineering machinery, export chains, and shipbuilding performance [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the mechanical equipment sector achieved revenue of 1,010.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 76.3 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year [1] - The engineering machinery sector continues to grow, with revenue of 334.3 billion yuan, a 5% increase, and net profit of 27.4 billion yuan, a 14% increase [1] - The export chain's performance is also strong, with revenue of 522.6 billion yuan, a 9% increase, and net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, a 30% increase [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing sustained demand, with revenue of 119.2 billion yuan, a 20% increase, and net profit of 5.9 billion yuan, a 112% increase [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the mechanical equipment industry saw significant growth across various sectors, with notable increases in revenue and net profit [1][11] - The engineering machinery sector's revenue and profit growth is attributed to both domestic and international market dynamics [1][5] - The shipbuilding sector is benefiting from a favorable cycle, with a strong order book and improved profitability [1][10] Market Trends - The mechanical equipment index rose by 37% as of September 30, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 21 percentage points [2] - Key sub-sectors such as lithium battery equipment and humanoid robots have shown remarkable growth, with increases of 142% and 66% respectively [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cyclical recovery in engineering machinery, industrial gases, and shipbuilding, driven by domestic demand and global market expansion [2][3] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to transition from formation to expansion, presenting significant investment opportunities [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility, with strong performance in large-cap technology growth stocks, but signs of sector differentiation and crowded trading are becoming increasingly evident [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Recent surges in AI, computing power, and semiconductor sectors have led some private equity firms to express concerns about short-term risks in technology stocks, prompting a shift in investment focus towards cyclical, consumer, and high-end manufacturing sectors [1][2]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has been rising, indicating a concentration of leveraged funds in technology stocks, which raises potential short-term risks [1][2]. Trading Conditions - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector's trading volume has reached approximately 35%, placing it in the 92nd percentile since 2019, while the growth style's trading volume is around 58%, in the 97th percentile since 2019, indicating a crowded trading environment [2]. - Some private equity firms are adjusting their portfolios to balance exposure, with a focus on reducing positions in overvalued technology stocks while increasing allocations to sectors like new energy and consumer goods [4][6]. Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are showing a clear divergence in strategies, with some reducing exposure to high-flying technology stocks and reallocating to sectors with better valuation prospects, while others maintain their focus on growth opportunities [4][6]. - There is a growing interest in sectors related to overseas demand, such as appliances and consumer brands, which are perceived to have strong competitive advantages and profitability [6][7]. Sector Outlook - The technology sector is expected to continue evolving, with opportunities emerging within the domestic supply chain, particularly in AI and related industries, where valuations are relatively lower compared to international counterparts [5][6]. - Consumer and cyclical assets are gaining attention, with expectations of improved performance as overall market confidence rises, and certain cyclical stocks are anticipated to benefit from favorable supply-demand dynamics [7].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently experiencing heightened interest due to its cyclical nature and strong correlation with economic cycles, having entered a downward cycle since 2021 [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Cycle and Price Trends - The chemical industry has shown a consistent cyclical pattern, with alternating periods of upward and downward trends, indicating a relatively even distribution of cycles over time [1]. - From 2021 to the present, the chemical sector has gradually shifted into a state of oversupply, leading to a continuous decline in chemical prices [3]. - Recent asset price movements suggest a rapid rotation in investment focus, with the chemical sector attracting attention due to its relatively low price levels and potential for rebound [3]. Group 2: Catalysts and Market Sentiment - The concept of "anti-involution" has gained traction, particularly following high-level discussions by the Central Financial Committee, which has influenced market perceptions and expectations regarding demand [4][5]. - Despite initial skepticism about the effectiveness of anti-involution measures, subsequent announcements, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan Yajiang project, have bolstered market confidence [4]. - The recognition of anti-involution's necessity from a macroeconomic perspective suggests a sustained impact on the chemical sector, with early signs of improvement in inflation data [5][6]. Group 3: Fundamental Logic and Growth Potential - The chemical industry's fundamentals are characterized by a potential cycle reversal, with expectations of supply-demand balance gradually being achieved, indicating a bottoming process [8]. - The sector also possesses growth attributes, driven by increasing demand from emerging technologies such as batteries and robotics, which rely on chemical products [8]. - The Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) is highlighted as a means to capture investment opportunities within the sector, covering both traditional cyclical segments and new growth areas [8].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector is currently in a low-efficiency state of repeated games, with expectations for either continued growth or a cyclical reversal. However, there are signs of positive changes in various dimensions such as prices, performance, policies, and industrial ecology, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics [1] Solar Energy - Demand has been front-loaded, and the effectiveness of supply-side reforms needs to be monitored. The industry requires significant demand growth to drive market expansion, but limited absorption capacity and mismatches between overseas demand and Chinese production capacity complicate recovery. Policy support is essential for the solar industry to return to a positive trajectory [1][2] - The report suggests that achieving a 30-40% clearance of existing capacity is necessary, but multiple factors could hinder this, including increased costs and potential demand issues leading to a situation where prices rise but transactions remain low [2] Energy Storage - The demand for energy storage remains robust, with a focus on changes in market dynamics. Investors are increasingly cautious about low-priced products, emphasizing the need for comprehensive system integration solutions. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, with reasonable gross margins projected to settle between 20-25% [3] - The distributed energy storage market is undergoing significant changes, with new entrants emerging while established companies struggle to adapt to new market conditions. The competitive environment is likely to see further reshuffling as companies navigate these challenges [4] Lithium Battery - The industry faces challenges in pricing and demand, with key segments like iron lithium and negative electrodes not achieving expected price increases. The actual supply-demand dynamics have not met market expectations, leading to low utilization rates of around 60-65% across the lithium battery supply chain [5][6] - Battery manufacturers are increasingly focused on controlling upstream supply chains and forming strategic partnerships, which may delay the cyclical recovery of material costs. The competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with a need for continuous cost reduction and technological advancement among material suppliers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market in July, highlighting that A-shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks due to various factors, including government policies and market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, major Chinese stock indices such as the Wind All A, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Index saw increases of +4.75%, +3.54%, and +2.91% respectively, indicating a stronger performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [4]. - The article notes that small-cap stocks in A-shares showed stronger performance than large-cap stocks during this period [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing A-share Performance - The central government's "anti-involution" supply-side reform measures announced on July 1 are believed to have positively impacted investor sentiment, particularly in cyclical industries that are expected to recover [5]. - The high market activity and significant gains in individual stocks have improved risk appetite among investors, leading to increased market participation [5]. Group 3: Bull Market Dynamics - The article explores how bull markets form, emphasizing that economic improvement is not a prerequisite for a bull market; rather, market valuations and investor sentiment play crucial roles [8][14]. - Historical data shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) can reflect macroeconomic conditions, and past bull markets have occurred even during periods of negative PPI growth [9]. Group 4: Investor Behavior in Bull Markets - The article identifies common reasons why many investors fail to profit during bull markets, including selling stocks during market lows out of fear and missing out on subsequent gains [15][16]. - It highlights the psychological barriers and decision-making challenges investors face, such as fear of missing out and the difficulty in identifying the right stocks to buy [17][18]. Group 5: Current Market Strategy - The article suggests that the current market may be characterized as a structural bull market, with potential for cyclical recovery in certain sectors due to government policies [21]. - It advises investors to avoid perfectionism in their investment strategies and to focus on achieving reasonable returns rather than waiting for the perfect entry point [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the raw milk price continues to decline, and the industry is expected to enter a supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, benefiting the leading company in the livestock industry due to its cost advantages and potential for performance elasticity [1][2] - The company is projected to have revenues of 13.35 billion, 14.60 billion, and 16.35 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 9.4%, and 12.0% respectively, and a net profit of -580 million, 438 million, and 1.58 billion yuan [1] - The company holds a 7% market share in the livestock industry in 2024, with a significant portion of raw milk sourced from its own production, which is over 90% [2] Group 2 - The company has implemented a cost-leading strategy across its entire supply chain, which includes grass planting, feed processing, and dairy farming, aiming to reduce procurement costs through economies of scale [3] - The company has seen a 13.6% increase in sales volume to 2.89 million tons in 2024, with a projected 10% increase in sales volume for the first half of 2025 due to structural optimization of the cattle herd [2] - The company has successfully reduced the cost of milk sales by nearly 9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, alongside a continuous decline in financing costs due to debt structure optimization [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Modern Dairy, with a target price of HKD 1.59 per share, corresponding to a 1.09 times P/B ratio for 2025 [7][11][17]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, benefiting from a cyclical recovery and demonstrating strong earnings elasticity. The report anticipates a rebound in raw milk prices and a return to supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025 [3][11][53]. - The company has implemented a cost leadership strategy across its entire supply chain, which includes feed production, dairy farming, and processing, aiming to reduce procurement costs and enhance operational efficiency [11][20][45]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 133.50 billion, RMB 145.99 billion, and RMB 163.47 billion, reflecting growth rates of 0.7%, 9.4%, and 12.0% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be -RMB 5.80 billion, RMB 4.38 billion, and RMB 15.84 billion, with EPS of -0.07, 0.06, and 0.20 yuan per share [5][16][19]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.0% in 2024 to 33.6% by 2027, driven by cost reductions and increased milk prices [5][19]. Industry Position - Modern Dairy holds a 7% market share in the dairy industry as of 2024, with a significant portion of its raw milk sales being secured by its major shareholder, Mengniu Dairy, which has consistently purchased over 90% of the company's raw milk [11][32][20]. - The company has expanded its operations through acquisitions and innovative leasing models, allowing for low-cost expansion and increased production capacity [20][32]. Operational Efficiency - The company has focused on optimizing its herd structure, increasing the proportion of productive cows, and enhancing milk yield through digital management systems. The average milk yield per cow is expected to exceed 13 tons in the first half of 2025 [60][11]. - Cost control measures have led to a significant reduction in feed costs, with the cost per kilogram of milk dropping by 16.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.95 in 2024 [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The current anti-involution logic differs from supply-side reforms, focusing more on cost investigation and price monitoring to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises. The anti-involution trend will evolve from "expected anti-involution" to "substantive anti-involution," with specific industries like agricultural chemicals and wind power equipment exemplifying this shift [1] Group 1: Wind Power Equipment Industry - The proportion of companies with negative operating cash flow (TTM) is decreasing, indicating that the industry is nearing a clearing phase, with a trend of increasing capital expenditure (CAPEX) expected from Q1 2025 [2] - The industry has seen a decline in CAPEX (TTM) growth rate, with a high proportion of companies experiencing a decrease in gross margin (TTM), suggesting a deepening clearing phase. However, profitability is improving, with a decrease in the proportion of companies with declining gross margins [2] - Revenue (TTM) has maintained positive year-on-year growth since Q1 2025, alongside inventory reduction [3] Group 2: Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The previous cycle peak in 2021 was characterized by proactive inventory accumulation in the agricultural chemicals market, leading to high prices and increased revenues for pesticide companies [4] - From the second half of 2022 to 2023, the industry faced continuous inventory accumulation, with a supply-demand turning point occurring post-H2 2022, leading to a phase of inventory clearance from 2023 to Q3 2024 [4] - The cyclical reversal logic reflected in financial reports operates on a quarterly basis, distinct from the phase of merely speculating on expectations in the anti-involution context. The industry’s quadrant analysis is complex but fundamentally revolves around traditional indicators like CAPEX, gross margin, and inventory [4]