截至收盘，道指跌0.52%，标普500指数跌0.28%，纳指微跌0.08%。 据央视财经消息，当地时间周四，美国联邦政府"停摆"持续，原定于当日公布的美国上周首次申请失业救济人数，以及美国8月批发销售额环比数据都未 公布，投资者交投谨慎，加之标普500指数与纳指前一日刚刚创下收盘历史新高，部分投资者获利了结，美国三大股指周四集体收跌。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.51美元，跌幅为1.66%；12月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶65.22美元， 跌幅为1.55%。9日国际金价跌超2.4%贵金属方面，中东地缘冲突缓和令投资者避险情绪降温，加之美元指数周四显著上涨，国际金价周四下跌，跌破每 盎司4000美元整数关口。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3972.6美元，跌幅为2.41%。 包括美国银行在内的多家金融机构分析师提示，黄金价格近期快速上涨，除基本面因素外，也受到了大量投机头寸的推动，因而积累了不少回调风险。未 来短期内，如有重要风险事件平息或美联储降息路径出现改变，金价有可能进一步回调。 来 源：央视新闻客户端 责任编辑：王 淼 公司方面，百事可乐 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin - LLDPE and PP: Recently, PP production has declined due to significant losses in PDH and externally - sourced propylene routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and decreased inventory. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually rising. This week, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased, and there are more import offers from North America. Currently, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure on the 01 contract, which limits the upside space [2]. Methanol - The market is trading high inventory and fast loading in Iran. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, market sentiment has deteriorated, prices have weakened, and the basis has slightly weakened. In terms of supply and demand, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports prices. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, demand is weak. Port arrivals are still high, inventory accumulation is significant, and trading has weakened. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are neutral, MTO profits are strengthening, and traditional downstream profits are slightly strengthening, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating inventory significantly, and the import volume in September remains high. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expected overseas gas restriction in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Recently, some pure benzene devices have restarted or produced products, and some maintenance plans have been postponed, so the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are still in a loss state, and some second - tier downstream products have high inventory. In September and October, both planned and unplanned production cuts in downstream styrene devices have reduced the demand support. The supply - demand expectation for pure benzene in September is still relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors. - Styrene: Driven by the peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, the overall demand for styrene downstream is okay, but the increase is limited. On the supply side, under the pressure of inventory and industry profits, more devices have shut down or reduced production. Some devices have reduced production due to accidents, and the export expectation of styrene has increased due to overseas device maintenance, so the supply is expected to decrease. Port inventory has accumulated, which may put pressure on the styrene price. In the short term, styrene may be affected by the oil price, geopolitical situation, and the alleviation of concerns about marginal supply increase [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that the market's concerns about the current supply surplus have eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has resurfaced. Specifically, the oil export agreement of the Iraqi Kurds has reached a deadlock, eliminating about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, which is the key trigger for the rebound after the previous continuous decline in oil prices and also provides support for the near - month spread. At the same time, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and the tough stance of NATO have magnified the supply interruption risk of refined oil products, pushed up the cracking spread, and affected the oil price from the sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although the IEA report and other macro - factors still point to a supply surplus, in the short term, geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential inventory increase. In the short term, oil prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to mainly conduct high - selling and low - buying operations, with the operating range of WTI at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after the volatility increases [21][22]. Urea - The urea futures price has been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains at a high level of over 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing the supply pressure. At the same time, agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate. Although there are some export port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. The lack of market confidence and continuous inventory accumulation further suppress the futures price, and there is a lack of substantial positive driving factors [25]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX: Recently, the short - process capacity utilization at home and abroad has increased, and the maintenance of some domestic PX devices has been postponed. In addition, multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The supply - demand expectation for PX in the fourth quarter is further weakened. However, it may be supported by oil prices in the short term. - PTA: Due to the continuously low processing fees of PTA, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The spot basis has been continuously weak. In terms of absolute price, it is affected by the situation in Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening. In the short term, the import expectation in September is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand expectation for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, mainly due to the start - up of new devices and the seasonal decline in demand in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, the short - fiber supply has remained at a high level. On the demand side, although it is the peak season, new orders are limited, and the peak season this year is not very prosperous. The short - fiber price has support at the low level, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - chip: Recently, some bottle - chip devices have restarted while some have shut down, and the overall production reduction intensity remains basically unchanged. With the downstream's low - price replenishment demand, the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - chip are supported, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction of bottle - chip devices will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation [28]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic Soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. This week, the supply has increased, and the start - up rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, the continuous decline in domestic and overseas alumina prices has continuously narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, and the support for the spot price is weak. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious downstream purchasing, the inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, the enterprises under maintenance and load - reduction have not resumed, the supply is tight, and the non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid demand, so the inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the short - term local caustic soda inventory needs time to be released. With the current high supply and the poor unloading of the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. It was previously recommended to take short positions, and the short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many enterprises will end their maintenance next week, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the start - up rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices and have average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw material calcium carbide continues to rise, and the ethylene price remains stable, providing bottom - line support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [36]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, L2601 and L2509 closed down 0.35% and 0.50% respectively; PP2601 and PP2509 closed down 0.45% and 0.35% respectively. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, and the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. The spot price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.44%, and the spot price of North China LDPE film decreased by 0.28% [2]. - **Start - up Rates**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. The PP device start - up rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, the PP powder start - up rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 (unit not specified), and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 (unit not specified), and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, MA2601 closed down 0.21%, MA2509 closed up 0.17%, the MA91 spread increased by 60.00%, the太仓 basis decreased by 16.37%, the spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 0.73%, the spot price of Luoyang, Henan decreased by 0.22%, and the spot price of Taicang port decreased by 0.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8% [4]. - **Start - up Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%, the overseas enterprise start - up rate in Shanghai decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 13.46% to 116%, the downstream acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3%, and the downstream MTBE start - up rate increased by 1.37% to 63.8% [4][5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2% to 63.41 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4% to 596 dollars/ton, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged at 845 dollars/ton, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7% to 723 dollars/ton, the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased by 5.6% to 125 dollars/ton, and the spread between ethylene and naphtha decreased by 1.0% to 247 dollars/ton [9]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 1.0% to 6860 dollars/ton, EB2511 futures decreased by 0.8% to 6870 dollars/ton, the EB basis (10) increased by 33.3% to 24 dollars/ton, the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 112.5% to - 34 dollars/ton, the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 20.3% to - 337 dollars/ton, and the EB cash flow (integrated) decreased by 19.0% to - 552 dollars/ton [9]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol decreased by 7.6% to - 272 dollars/ton, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) decreased by 4.7% to - 1885 dollars/ton, the cash flow of aniline increased by 14.0% to 514 dollars/ton, the EPS cash flow decreased by 13.6% to 190 dollars/ton, the PS cash flow decreased by 100.0% to - 60 dollars/ton, and the ABS cash flow increased by 247.8% to 34 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 million tons [10]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rates**: The domestic pure benzene start - up rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%, the phenol start - up rate increased by 3.0% to 71.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 2.8% to 88.7%, the aniline start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 72.0%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 1.1% to 61.2%, the downstream EPS start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 61.7%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 69.8% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, compared with September 23, Brent crude oil increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.54% to 63.75 dollars/barrel, SC crude oil decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 dollars/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82% to 1.37 dollars, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65% to 0.72 dollars, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% to 1.80 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 dollars, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 dollars, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars, the RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94% to 7.61 dollars, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40% to - 0.76 dollars, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% to 15.00 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spread of US gasoline increased by 1.10% to 20.59 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of European gasoline increased by 1.15% to 18.86 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore gasoline increased by 6.11% to 11.12 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US diesel increased by 0.14% to 33.19 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore diesel increased by 0.86% to 18.74 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US jet fuel decreased by 8.80% to 24.13 dollars/barrel, and the cracking spread of Singapore jet fuel increased by 0.85% to 17.74 dollars/barrel [21]. Urea - **Prices**: The synthetic ammonia (Shandong) price increased by 0.91% to 2220 dollars/ton. The spot prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, and 0.56% respectively [25]. - **Spreads**: The Shandong - Henan spread decreased by 10 dollars to - 10 dollars/ton, the Guangdong - Henan spread decreased by 6% to 160 dollars/ton, the Shandong basis decreased by 20.00% to - 48 dollars/ton [25]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine (Shandong), compound fertilizer

乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯关键石油港口，叠加七国集团关税威胁，地缘风险溢价推高原油价格。邓正红软实力模型揭示：每桶7~9美元溢价实为市场对能源 权力再分配的定价，非对称打击与金融制裁正重塑石油市场新逻辑。 邓正红软实力表示，乌克兰的无人机袭击增加令俄罗斯原油供应受阻的风险上升，市场担忧俄罗斯原油供应，抵消了供应过剩和美国需求疲软风险带来的压 力，地缘溢价推升石油软实力价值，周五（9月12日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.32美元 至62.69美元，涨幅0.51%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油11月期货结算价每桶涨0.62美元至66.99美元，涨幅0.93%。 克里姆林宫周五表示，俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的和平谈判已暂停。谈判代表今年在伊斯坦布尔举行了三轮直接会谈，最近一次是在7月23日，但双方在可能的 和平协议框架方面仍存在巨大分歧，这可能引发西方对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁。乌克兰安全局（SBU）官员表示，对俄罗斯西北部普里莫尔斯克港的无人机 袭击导致夜间石油装载作业暂停，该港是俄罗斯最大的石油和燃料出口终端之一。美国财政部长斯科特•贝森特周五在七国集团财长电话会议中表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3,550, driven by multiple factors including a crisis of confidence in the US dollar, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [1][5][9]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The first major factor is the crisis of confidence in the US dollar, with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 124% and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in real yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds from 1.8% to below 1.2% [5][11]. - The second factor is the surge in central bank gold purchases, with global central banks net buying 256 tons of gold in the first four months of the year, including a continuous increase in China's gold reserves [7][9]. - The third factor is the geopolitical risk premium, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East pushing investors towards gold as a safe haven [9][14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The investment community is observing whether the three driving forces behind gold's price surge can continue, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which could enhance liquidity and support gold prices [11][18]. - Geopolitical uncertainties remain a significant catalyst for gold prices, with predictions indicating a possible 10% increase if conflicts escalate, while a return to peace could lead to a price correction of 12% to 17% [14][16]. - Supply and demand dynamics are also crucial, with stable gold production but fluctuating demand; jewelry consumption has decreased by 26.68% due to high prices, while investment demand is rising [16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the ☆☆☆ rating might imply a relatively strong upward trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, meaning a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price is in a state of shock consolidation. The geopolitical risk premium has slightly increased, but without a clear escalation, the upward space of oil price is limited [2] - The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the decline in sales volume and supply, and the high - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums, resulting in a relatively strong high - low sulfur spread [3] - The asphalt futures fluctuate around 3500 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices. The decline in supply and inventory supports the asphalt price [4] - The international LPG market rebounds under the support of import demand. The domestic market has a short - term repair trend, but there is long - term overseas production increase pressure [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with the SC10 contract rising 0.85% during the day [2] - Geopolitical risk premiums have slightly increased due to the restart of the process of implementing UN sanctions on Iran by the UK, France, and Germany [2] - The oil price is in a relative steady state under the game of post - peak season loose supply - demand and short - term geopolitical risk support, and the upward space is limited without clear escalation [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - FU and LU maintained a shock today [3] - As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased by 1% year - on - year [3] - As of July, domestic refinery production of marine fuel was sluggish, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year [3] - Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased month - on - month, and the high - low sulfur spread remained relatively strong due to geopolitical premiums on high - sulfur resources [3] Asphalt - Today, asphalt futures fluctuated around 3500 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices and little change in basis [4] - Recently, most refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residual oil, resulting in a decline in supply [4] - The shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8%. Both factory and social inventories decreased significantly, supporting the asphalt price [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market rebounded under the support of import demand, and the domestic arrival volume continued to recover [5] - Due to the low - price goods in the early stage, the sales pressure was limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5] - The naphtha - propane spread maintained an advantageous level, and the short - term high chemical demand could be maintained [5] - The spot negative pressure has been released stage by stage, and the market maintains a repair trend. There is long - term overseas production increase pressure, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The overall market is in a complex state with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical risks, economic data, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations are key drivers. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of high - level or low - level oscillation, while others are at a turning point in their supply - demand relationship [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices are in a relative steady state due to the game between post - peak season supply - demand and short - term geopolitical risks. Further upward space is limited without a clear escalation of geopolitical events [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures are under pressure, but the fundamentals are relatively bullish as the inventory pressure is relieved. High - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market rebounds, and the domestic market is in a repair phase. There is long - term overseas production increase pressure, leading to a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the futures market [24]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures show resistance to decline, with potential demand and low inventory providing support [23]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are oscillating strongly. Once the key resistance is broken, the upward trend may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price rises, but the integer - level resistance is strong. High - level short positions can be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, with the upper resistance at 21,000 yuan. The casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the alumina is weakly oscillating [5][6][7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. A short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price has a rebound intention, but the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking signs [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price continues to rise. The previous long positions can be held [11]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Both are oscillating upward with weak rebound strength. The manganese silicon may see inventory accumulation in the long run, and the silicon iron follows the trend of manganese silicon [19][20]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level as the supply - demand relationship weakens marginally [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both show price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the prices are greatly affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations [17][18]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is回调, and the market is in a state of relatively strong oscillation [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are in an oscillating pattern, with limited upward space and high risk of shorting at the lower end of the range [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating, affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment of other varieties [14]. - **Urea**: The urea spot trading improves, but there is high supply - demand pressure [25]. - **Methanol**: The near - month methanol contract is weak, with high inventory in ports and increasing supply inland [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene market is in a weak balance, with expectations of improvement in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC may oscillate weakly, and the caustic soda is expected to face pressure at high levels [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The PX is in a range - bound oscillation, and the PTA continues to weaken [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate within a range, and the upward drive is weakening [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation if the demand improves, and the bottle - chip industry has long - term over - capacity pressure [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - to - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They can be considered for buying at low prices in the medium - to - long term, with attention to soybean policies in the short term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The futures prices have a narrow short - term fluctuation range, and it is advisable to wait and see [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom, with a possible short - term rebound [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pork**: The pork futures are likely to continue the weak downward trend in the medium term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year, and it is advisable to consider long positions in the first half of next year's futures contracts [40]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton can be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with the international market having supply pressure and the domestic market having limited bullish factors [42]. - **Fruits and Wood Products**: - **Apple**: The apple price may continue to rise in the short term but lacks long - term supply - side support [43]. - **Wood**: The wood futures are oscillating, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures can be treated with a wait - and - see or range - bound oscillation strategy [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounds, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures fall, and the yield curve may become steeper [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating indicated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The crude oil market maintains a volatile trend, and the price center still faces downward pressure in the medium term, but short - term long positions in futures and options are at a low level, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money options is recommended for hedging [2] - The fuel oil system shows relatively stronger performance than SC, but the expected increase in heavy - quality resources from the Middle East still suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, and the price fluctuates weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in low - level fluctuations [5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC10 contract fell 0.47%. The market faces the pressure of accelerated inventory accumulation after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may shift down in the medium term. Short - term net long positions in overseas futures and options are at a low level. Hold out - of - the - money option double - buy strategies for hedging and then intervene in medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil system is relatively stronger than SC, with cracking strengthening. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the inventory in Fujairah has decreased. The total arrival volume in August increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June. The high - sulfur is relatively under pressure, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has a trend of increasing year - on - year decline. Road demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 8 - month sample refinery shipment increased by 8% year - on - year. The BU single - side price follows the SC's fluctuations, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - operating rate. The top pressure is strong under high - level warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly in low - level fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer bearish trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, meaning a bearish stance with a clearer downward trend and the market situation is developing [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a clearer bearish trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, representing a clearer bearish trend and a proper investment chance [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market faces accelerated inventory accumulation pressure, with the price center likely to decline in the medium - term, but short - term uncertainties remain, and a strategy of holding out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging is recommended [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak in the oil product futures, while low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The increase in high - sulfur fuel oil supply from the Middle East to Asia suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, although production is declining, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season. The price will fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to trade in a narrow range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and the market will mainly oscillate at a low level [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.5%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 2.6%. In the fourth quarter, supply - demand surplus will expand, and there will be an annual surplus of 2.52 million barrels per day in 2026 [2] - Short - term overseas crude oil futures and options net long positions are at a low level, and uncertainties in the US - Russia - Ukraine negotiations remain. Hold out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging and wait for volatility to increase before taking mid - term short positions [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, especially in the past two trading days, LU has risen against SC [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil shipments from the Middle East to Asia are increasing, and the total arrival volume in August has increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared to June. The high - low differentiation of domestic FU and LU warehouse receipts has widened the high - low sulfur spread [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to divert North Asian resources. Sinopec's increase in deep - processing load has led to a year - on - year decline in asphalt cumulative production [4] - With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, road demand is expected to pick up. In August, the sample refinery shipments increased by 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive [4] - The low basis in South China supports the spot price, while the high basis in Shandong has shifted the spot price center down. The BU single - side price follows SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price, with the 10 - contract expected to trade in a narrow range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market has stabilized recently. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support. In the domestic market, imports and refinery outflows are rising, but domestic gas is still under pressure due to weak gas demand [5] - After the recent decline in crude oil has driven down naphtha, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Concerns about the sustainability of the current high operating rate are raised under the expectation of falling chemical gross margins [5] - The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With high warehouse receipts, the top pressure is strong, and the high - basis pattern will continue, with the market mainly oscillating at a low level [5]

1. Market Performance 1.1 International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce [2][47]. 1.2 Crude Oil - The main contract of U.S. crude oil rose 2.04% to $63.93 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.92% to $66.89 per barrel [3][48]. 1.3 London Base Metals - LME nickel fell 1.4%, LME tin fell 0.87%, LME copper fell 0.27%, while LME zinc rose 0.48%, LME aluminum rose 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.1% [3][50]. 1.4 Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined. LPG rose over 1%, while rapeseed meal fell over 2%, and rapeseed oil, 20 - rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda fell over 1% [4]. 1.5 Financial Markets - A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37% to 25519.32 points [30][32]. 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - Fed's Daly opposed a 50 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting. The U.S. 7 - month PPI far exceeded expectations. China's central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic soda ash inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. Russia's refined oil exports reached a high level [11][12][15]. 2.3 Metal Futures - The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association issued an initiative for the energy storage industry, and the operating capacity of alumina increased [17]. 2.4 Black - series Futures - A coal mine in Shanxi planned to resume production, and coal supply in Shaanxi tightened. Steel production and inventory showed different trends [19][21]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's soybean and corn production had new forecasts. India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports changed, and U.S. soybean and corn exports were lower than expected [25][27]. 3. Company Performance - JD Group's second - quarter revenue increased by 22.4%. NetEase's second - quarter revenue increased by 9.4%. Foxconn's second - quarter revenue and profit reached new highs [34][35][10]. 4. Industry Dynamics 4.1 Aviation - The China Air Transport Association issued an aviation passenger self - discipline convention [36]. 4.2 Semiconductor - China's first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered application testing [37]. 4.3 Express Delivery - In July, express delivery business revenue increased by 8.9%, and business volume increased by 15.1% [38]. 4.4 Real Estate - Shanghai real - estate platforms hid historical transaction prices of second - hand houses [39]. 4.5 Banking - Financial regulators in some regions proposed "anti - involution" measures for the banking industry [41]. 5. Overseas Markets 5.1 U.S. - Trump signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations. U.S. PPI data affected market expectations [42]. 5.2 UK - UK's second - quarter GDP grew by 0.3% [42]. 5.3 International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks were mixed, European stocks rose, and Japanese stocks fell [43][45][46]. 5.4 Bonds - Domestic and U.S. bond yields generally rose [51]. 5.5 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [52]. 6. Upcoming Events and Data Releases 6.1 Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released, including Japan's GDP, China's economic indicators, and U.S. retail sales [55]. 6.2 Events - There are events such as central bank operations, news conferences, and corporate earnings releases [57].