1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting is completed, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino-US tariffs, the price continues to decline, and weather factors may be a potential market driver. China has adjusted tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions, with short - term stability in the north and potential tight supply in North China. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream demand, with inventory increasing and limited short - term downward space for the 09 contract [3][4][5]. - In the short term, domestic 09 corn is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn due to tight supply. For trading strategies, a light - position short - term long on 09 corn can be considered, and for the spread between 09 corn and starch, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Data**: On July 16, 2025, different corn and corn starch futures contracts showed various closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of C2601 was 2293, down 2 with a decline of 0.09%, and its trading volume decreased by 15.37% to 373,438, while the open interest increased by 1.77% to 1,054,601. There are also data on basis, spreads (including corn inter - term, starch inter - term, and cross - variety spreads) [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Jiajisheng Chemical, and Zhucheng Xingmao are provided, along with their price changes and basis. The same goes for starch in different companies like Longfeng, COFCO, and Jiali [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by planting progress, tariff policies, and potential weather speculation. In China, the northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, the Northeast corn spot is stable, the supply in North China is tight, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprises have high inventory. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, but there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn [3][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong has rebounded. The starch inventory has increased this week, reaching 1346,000 tons, a monthly increase of 2.83% and a year - on - year increase of 26.27%. The starch price depends on corn prices and downstream stocking. The short - term downward space for the 09 starch contract is limited [5]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategies are proposed, suggesting that enterprises with spot positions close out short positions on corn call options, or short - term investors can try bottom - accumulating purchases [10]. Part 4: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 09 contracts [11][13][17].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the apple industry, focusing on the current market conditions, inventory levels, and future projections for apple production and pricing. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Market Conditions**: The apple futures market is currently lacking a clear trend, with the market in a transitional phase between old and new apple inventories. The focus is on the impact of new apple production and quality on future pricing for the 2025-2026 season [1][2][4]. 2. **Inventory Levels**: The inventory levels for apples are not considered high compared to historical data. Although there is a noticeable decrease in inventory from the previous year, the overall inventory levels over the past seven years have not shown significant changes [2][4]. 3. **Impact of Seasonal Fruits**: The introduction of seasonal fruits, such as lychee and watermelon, has significantly impacted apple consumption and pricing. This seasonal competition is expected to slow down the inventory depletion rate [3][9]. 4. **Price Support from Inventory**: The current inventory levels provide some support for apple prices, despite a gradual slowdown in inventory depletion. The market is not expected to see drastic price movements due to these factors [4][5]. 5. **Trade Dynamics**: Traders are not in a hurry to sell their inventory as the current levels are manageable. They are looking for better sales margins and are cautious about pricing strategies [10][11]. 6. **Weather Impact on Production**: Adverse weather conditions, such as storms and hail, can significantly affect apple production, particularly during critical growth phases. Recent weather events have raised concerns about potential localized production decreases [6][8]. 7. **Future Price Projections**: The expected price range for apples is projected to be between 7600 to 8000, with current market prices reflecting this range. The market is advised to adopt cautious trading strategies, including options trading to mitigate risks [12][13]. Other Important Insights - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions and their potential impact on apple production and pricing. - There is a suggestion for traders to consider flexible options strategies to navigate the current market volatility and potential extreme scenarios [13]. - The overall sentiment in the market is one of caution, with traders advised to remain vigilant regarding both inventory levels and external market influences [12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - **相关资讯**: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - **策略建议**: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - **重要咨讯**: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - **逻辑分析**: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - **持仓建议**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - **逻辑分析**: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - **交易策略**: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - **逻辑分析**: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - **交易策略**: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - **逻辑分析**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - **策略建议**: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - **交易策略**: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - **重要资讯**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - **交易逻辑**: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - **交易策略**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - **重要资讯**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - **交易策略**: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - **重要资讯**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - **交易策略**: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].

Core Viewpoint - The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of soybeans in China from May to July is sufficient, with oil mills operating at high levels compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall supply of soybean meal in the spot market is loose, while downstream replenishment has weakened, resulting in price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed, and the market will focus on weather-related speculation moving forward [1] - The ongoing impact of U.S.-China tariffs will continue to evolve, leading to a period of observation in the market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which is expected to tighten supply and potentially increase domestic soybean meal prices [1][4] - The USDA reported that the U.S. soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, lower than both the intended planting area of 83.50 million acres and market expectations of 83.65 million acres, marking a five-year low [1] - The ending stocks for U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season are projected to be only 8.03 million tons, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 6.68%, indicating a low inventory situation compared to previous years [1] Group 2 - Weather conditions during the soybean planting period in May and June were favorable for planting but require sufficient rainfall in July and August for crop growth, increasing sensitivity to weather-related speculation [2] - As of July 6, the soybean good-to-excellent rating was 66%, matching the previous week but lower than the 68% from the same time last year, indicating a need for attention to rainfall in August [2] - The EPA's proposed blending rules for 2026-2027 significantly exceed market expectations, which is expected to increase demand for soybean oil and indirectly support soybean prices [3] Group 3 - Domestic soybean meal market is currently characterized by a "weak reality strong expectation" state, with a supply surplus in the third quarter suppressing prices [4] - A potential supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter could lead to increased domestic soybean meal prices [4] - The forecast for domestic soybean imports is high, with June imports reaching 10.56 million tons and expected to rise to 11 million tons in July, indicating a supply surplus in the near term [3]

Core Insights - The quality rating of U.S. soybeans remains unchanged, while the quality rating of U.S. corn has seen a slight increase, raising questions about when weather-related speculation will resume and how future prices will develop [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean quality rating is stagnant, indicating no improvement or decline in crop conditions [1] - U.S. corn quality rating has increased slightly, suggesting a potential for better yields [1] - The market is anticipating future weather conditions that could influence price movements [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil and fat logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node to confirm the planting area, and after the announcement, the weather conditions in the production area should be continuously monitored. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and bottom - fishing for far - month contracts are suitable [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1857 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3888 [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy - **Trader Inventory Management**: When the protein inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in meal prices, traders with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills with short positions can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market's previous oil - related trading logic has weakened, and the US soybean is at a key time for planting area confirmation. The domestic market has near - month pressure and far - month supply gap and weather speculation logic [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Bearish Interpretation - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures market through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6]. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream has a low cost - performance ratio for adding rapeseed meal. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow that of soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oil Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2987, up 4 (0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2707, down 3 (- 0.11%); soybean meal 09 is 2946, up 10 (0.34%) [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2290, down 15 (- 0.65%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2321, down 9 (- 0.39%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2559, up 9 (0.35%) [10]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: The closing price is 1016.25, unchanged (0%) [10]. - **Off - shore RMB**: The closing price is 7.1619, down 0.0128 (- 0.18%) [10]. 3.7 Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal Spread**: The spread of M01 - 05 is 280, up 7; M05 - 09 is - 239, down 13; M09 - 01 is - 41, up 6 [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spread of RM01 - 05 is - 31, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 238, down 18; RM09 - 01 is 269, up 24 [11]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2840, unchanged; the basis is - 106, down 10. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2578, down 23; the basis is 28, up 15. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 262, unchanged; the futures spread is 387, up 1 [11]. 3.8 Oil Import Cost and Crushing Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4493.3329 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and down 0.0643 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3738.92 yuan/ton, up 0.38 yuan/ton and down 138.33 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 700.3529 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and up 108.2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 229.0205 yuan/ton, up 28.0974 yuan/ton and unchanged week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 87 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton and down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 80 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton and down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [12].

Report Overview - The report is the Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily, dated June 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node for confirming the planting area, and the weather conditions in the producing areas should be continuously monitored after the announcement. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and buying far - month contracts on dips are suitable strategies [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.9%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1551 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1961 [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - Feed mills with low regular purchase inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Core Contradictions - The external market's oil - trading logic hype has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the planting - area confirmation time. In the domestic market, near - month prices are suppressed by real - world pressure, while far - month contracts have supply - gap and weather - speculation factors [4] 利多解读 - No content provided 利空解读 - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse - receipt registration, likely leading to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil - mill operating rates are rising, and extraction has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6] - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the third quarter remains abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6] - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and the downstream finds adding rapeseed meal lack cost - effectiveness. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market will mainly follow the soybean meal market with a weak outlook [6] Futures Price - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3069, down 4 (- 0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2747, down 6 (- 0.22%); soybean meal 09 is 3037, unchanged (0%) [7] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2374, down 4 (- 0.17%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2375, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2662, up 5 (0.19%) [10] - **Other Futures**: The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1046.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1801, down 0.0201 (- 0.28%) [10] Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4 [11] - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9 [11] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2900, down 20, and the basis is - 137, down 20. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2619, down 2, and the basis is - 38, up 20. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 281, down 20, and the futures spread is 375, down 5 [11] Import Cost and Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4632.1082 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and down 0.0108 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3830.16 yuan/ton, down 39.56 yuan/ton and up 11.47 yuan/ton week - on - week [12] - **Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 777.3132 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and up 18.4175 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 202.901 yuan/ton, down 15.9385 yuan/ton and down 0.152 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton and up 111 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot profit is 118 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton and up 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★★★ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★★★ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★★★ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products including soybeans, corn, and livestock, considering factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policy. Different products face various market situations, and the report provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][7] Summary by Category 1. Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The domestic soybean main contract rebounded significantly. The tension in the Middle East and potential weather risks in the US may affect prices. Weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations during the growing season [2] - **Imported Soybeans**: There are risks of high temperature and low precipitation in the US soybean - growing months of July - August. With the tightened supply - demand balance of US soybeans, attention should be paid to weather - related price rebounds [2][6] 2. Soybean & Bean Meal - The USDA June soybean report was neutral. Dalian bean meal has been volatile recently. Although domestic soybean supply is increasing, the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has risen, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] 3. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed meal had small fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices rose. The USDA's adjustment to rapeseed supply - demand data had little impact. The prices of Canadian rapeseed and domestic rapeseed products are expected to have short - term upward space [4] 4. Corn - The USDA June report was neutral - positive for US new - season corn. Corn futures have been volatile. The price was affected by the wheat - corn substitution and future price differentials between them [7] 5. Livestock - **Pigs**: The hog futures rebounded, and the spot price was stable. In the short term, the spot price has downward pressure, while in the medium term, policy support may boost the far - end price [8] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded after a large - scale reduction in positions. The spot price continued to decline, and attention should be paid to potential demand increases when prices are low [9] 6. Vegetable Oils - **Palm Oil**: The price rose significantly but showed a trend of rising and then falling. The USDA report was neutral. The price is expected to be range - bound, with risks of suppression by US soybean weather speculation [6] - **Soybean Oil**: No specific independent analysis in the report, considered together with soybeans and related to the overall soybean market situation [3]