Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - In the short term, soybean and sugar futures show strong performance due to weather speculation and macro - factors. However, mid - term weather forecasts indicate expected precipitation in Argentina in February, and as the harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect selling pressure, limiting the upside potential of the domestic market [10] Directory Summaries 1. Basis Data - On January 28th, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian was 438, down 16; in Tianjin it was 398, down 16; in Zhangjiagang it was 338, down 16; in Dongguan it was 338, down 16; in Zhanjiang it was 368, down 16; and in Fangcheng it was 358, down 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 171, down 16. The M3 - 5 was 298, down 7, and RN5 - 9 was - 12, up 10 [4] 2. Inventory Data - There is a chart about China's port soybean inventory in ten thousand tons, but specific data is not detailed from the text [5] 3.开机 and压榨情况 - There are charts about the operating rate (%) and soybean crushing volume (ten thousand tons) of major domestic oil mills, but specific data is not detailed from the text [8] 4. International Data - As of January 24th, according to CONAB, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 6.6% (last week 2.3%, last year 3.2%, five - year average 7%). As of January 21st, according to BACE, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 96.2%, slightly behind last year. The proportion of good - rated soybean crops was 33% (last week 61%, last year 26%). Since January, the weather in Argentina has been dry, and the excellent - good rate of soybeans has declined. The weather will remain dry in the next two weeks [10] 5. Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased but are still at a high level compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. The oil mill's crushing operation has recovered, but the downstream stocking sentiment is average, and the basis is weakly volatile [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract rose 11.25 cents to close at 1067.5 cents per bushel, a 1.07% increase; the May soybean meal contract rose 24 yuan to close at 2751 yuan per ton, a 0.88% increase; the spot price of soybean meal in South China was 3100 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week; the May rapeseed meal contract fell 20 yuan to close at 2235 yuan per ton, a 0.89% decrease; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 20 yuan to close at 2430 yuan per ton, a 0.82% decrease [4][7]. - After the decline, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Firstly, due to the expected release of the US biodiesel policy, the strengthening of US soybean oil boosted US soybeans. Secondly, the accelerating export sales progress of US soybeans also supported the price. Thirdly, increased precipitation in the central Brazilian producing areas might slow down the harvesting progress in the short term. Fourthly, the dry weather in the Argentine producing areas affected crop growth and development, leading to a recent downgrade of the crop's good - to - excellent rate and an increase in speculation sentiment. In China, the oil mill's crushing and operating rate rebounded slightly. Soybeans and soybean meal were in the process of inventory reduction. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand gradually emerged, with good downstream transactions (but a decline compared to the previous week). Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory continued to increase. The import cost increased slightly, and combined with the improvement of the domestic commodity sentiment, the Dalian soybean meal stopped falling and rose [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the dry weather in the Argentine producing areas will lead to a downgrade of the crop's good - to - excellent rating, and the market's weather speculation sentiment will heat up. The excessive precipitation in the central - western Brazilian producing areas may slow down the harvesting progress. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand continues, with good overall soybean meal transactions. Feed enterprises' inventory continues to increase, and the domestic oil mill's crushing and operating rate rebounds. The high - inventory reduction process continues. Pay attention to weather changes in South America and the intensity of stocking demand. In summary, it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Data | Contract | January 23, 2026 | January 16, 2026 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1067.50 | 1056.25 | 11.25 | 1.07% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 448.00 | 448.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 477.00 | 473.00 | 4.00 | 0.85% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | 71.46 | 37.87 | 33.59 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2751.00 | 2727.00 | 24.00 | 0.88% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2235.00 | 2255.00 | -20.00 | -0.89% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 516.00 | 472.00 | 44.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3100.00 | 3120.00 | -20.00 | -0.64% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3100.00 | 3100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 349.00 | 373.00 | -24.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - US soybean market: The CBOT March soybean contract rose. Factors included the expected release of the US biodiesel policy, accelerating export sales, increased precipitation in central Brazil, and dry weather in Argentina. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 244.6 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 3303.5 million tons, with a sales progress of 77.1%. China's net purchase in that week was 130.3 million tons, with a cumulative purchase of 942 million tons and an outstanding shipment of 673.4 million tons [7][8]. - Brazilian soybean market: As of the week of January 17, 2026, the soybean harvesting rate was 2.3%. The expected export volume in January was 379 million tons. Forecasts suggest that the excessive precipitation in the central producing areas may slow down the harvesting progress in the later stage [7][9]. - Argentine soybean market: As of the week of January 21, 2026, the soybean sowing progress was 96.2%. The proportion of normal and good - to - excellent crops was 87%. The dry weather forecast continues, and if it persists, it will affect crop growth and development [9]. - Domestic market: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.8733 billion tons, a decrease of 257.9 million tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 947.2 million tons, a decrease of 96.8 million tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 4.9848 billion tons, a decrease of 423.8 million tons from the previous week. The national port soybean inventory was 7.721 billion tons, a decrease of 307 million tons from the previous week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 186,720 tons, and the daily average pick - up volume was 188,160 tons. The major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1021 billion tons. The feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 10.21 days [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will reach 1.7928 billion tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous year, setting a new record. The planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the average yield per hectare is expected to increase by 2.8% [12]. - As of January 15, 2026, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 season were 6.61 billion tons, a 14% year - on - year decrease [12]. - Canada and China reached a preliminary trade agreement on January 16, 2026, significantly reducing tariff barriers on key commodities such as electric vehicles and rapeseed [13]. - AgRural reports that as of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean harvesting rate was 2%, slightly higher than the same period last year [13]. - Safras predicts that Brazil's soybean export volume in 2026 will be 1.05 billion tons, and the crushing volume will be 600 million tons. The total supply is expected to reach 1.8379 billion tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [14]. - SECEX reports that Brazil's soybean export pace in January 2026 is significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 16, 2026, the export volume was 1.307 billion tons, and the daily average export volume increased by 144.6% year - on - year [14]. - As of January 15, 2026, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 season were 6.7 billion tons, and the soybean meal imports were 9.9 billion tons, both showing a year - on - year decrease [15]. - In Argentina's early - maturing soybean planting areas, some regions are experiencing drought, while others have sufficient or excessive soil moisture [15]. - StoneX reports that the market expects the US EPA to soon release the final regulations on biofuels, which is expected to boost market sentiment [15]. - ABIOVE predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 1.77124 billion tons, and the crushing volume will reach a record - high 610 million tons [16]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 28 charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB spot exchange rate trends, regional crushing profits, management funds' CBOT net positions, soybean meal futures - spot price differences, and various inventory and trading volume data trends [18 - 45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of global vegetable oils in 2025/2026 is expected to tighten year - on - year, which will support the upward shift of the domestic oil price range. Various factors such as weather and policies have a significant impact on the oil fundamentals, potentially leading to increased price volatility [5][71]. - For palm oil, La Nina may cause seasonal production cuts and accelerated inventory reduction, providing short - term upward opportunities. The uncertainty of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia and the implementation of the Indonesian B45/50 plan may provide long - term upward momentum. - For soybean oil, if the soybean production in North and South America declines due to weather speculation, China continues to purchase a large amount of US soybeans, and the US biofuel policy favorable to US soybean oil is implemented, the tightening of the global soybean supply - demand will help the domestic soybean oil price to be strong. Otherwise, the domestic soybean oil will face pressure. - For rapeseed oil, focus on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and whether China will relax the import control of Australian rapeseed, which will improve the current tight supply - demand pattern of the domestic rapeseed industry and be negative for rapeseed oil prices. Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review - In 2025, domestic oil prices showed a pattern of large fluctuations and an increased operating range, with soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the domestic palm oil futures contract rose 288 yuan/ton (3.40%) to 8762 yuan/ton compared to January 1, the soybean oil futures contract rose 542 yuan/ton (7.02%) to 8266 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil futures contract rose 480 yuan/ton (5.38%) to 9407 yuan/ton [8]. - In Q1 2025, the three major domestic oils were in a game stage, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Palm oil was suppressed by the postponement of Indonesia's B40 policy and the recovery of Malaysian palm oil production in Q1, but was supported by low domestic inventory. Soybean oil was dragged down by the expected high yield of South American soybeans in 2024/2025 and poor US soybean export data. Rapeseed oil rose due to concerns about future supply tightening caused by the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed [9]. - In Q2, the trends of the three major domestic oils further diverged. Palm oil fell sharply due to the strong recovery of production in Malaysia and Indonesia and the increase in inventory. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil showed a volatile trend as the supply shortage of domestic soybeans was gradually alleviated and there were both positive and negative factors in the high inventory of rapeseed oil and Sino - Canadian negotiations [9]. - In Q3, the three major domestic oils rose collectively, with rapeseed oil leading the increase. Rapeseed oil rose significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed in August, which led to concerns about supply shortages. Soybean and palm oils rose in early July - late August due to favorable bio - fuel policies, but the upward trend weakened later due to factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, the smooth increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, and high domestic oil inventory [10]. - In Q4, rapeseed and palm oils fell sharply and then bottomed out in a volatile manner, while soybean oil maintained a volatile trend. Palm oil was pressured by the unexpected increase in Malaysian inventory and the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy. Rapeseed oil was affected by the permission of Australian rapeseed import and ongoing Sino - Canadian negotiations. Soybean oil was supported by China's resumption of US soybean imports [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis (A) Origin Oil Supply - Demand 1. **2025/2026 Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand Expected to Tighten for Four Consecutive Years** - Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global vegetable oil production in 2025/2026 is 234.395 million tons (year - on - year + 1.96%), with the lowest growth rate in nearly five years. Rapeseed oil production increased the most (2.56% year - on - year) at 35.009 million tons, followed by palm oil at 80.186 million tons (+2.42%), and soybean oil increased the least at 70.567 million tons (+1.10%) [12]. - Demand side: Bio - diesel policies in various countries have strengthened domestic consumption (228.811 million tons, year - on - year + 2.86%) and tightened exports (86.979 million tons, year - on - year - 0.44%). The increase in demand is greater than that in supply, so the global vegetable oil ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio will decline year - on - year, and the supply - demand will continue to tighten [12]. - Uncertainties: Mainly focus on South American soybean and Indonesian palm oil production, as well as bio - diesel policies in various countries [12]. 2. **2025/2026 Global Palm Oil Supply - Demand Tightness Improves Marginally, Focus on Production and Indonesian Bio - diesel Policy** - Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global palm oil production in 2025/2026 is 80.816 million tons (year - on - year + 2.42%), with Indonesia at 47.5 million tons (year - on - year + 3.26%) and Malaysia at 19.5 million tons (year - on - year + 0.62%). However, due to factors such as aging trees, El Nino in 2026, and the nationalization of plantations in Indonesia, the medium - and long - term palm oil production in Southeast Asia is highly uncertain, and the increase may be lower than expected [16]. - Demand side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global palm oil domestic consumption in 2025/2026 is 77.862 million tons (year - on - year + 3.49%), exports are 45.708 million tons (year - on - year + 1.74%), and total demand is 123.57 million tons (year - on - year + 2.83%). The implementation of Indonesia's B45/B50 bio - diesel policy will increase domestic consumption and reduce exports, while Malaysia may seize Indonesia's export market [21][22]. - Inventory: In 2025, Malaysia's inventory increased rapidly in Q3 and was at a five - year high in October, while Indonesia's inventory remained low throughout the year. In the medium - and long - term, both Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to have a slight inventory reduction in 2025/2026, with Indonesia's supply - demand being more tense [26][27]. 3. **2025/2026 Global Soybean Supply - Demand at a Medium - Term Level, Focus on US Soybean Demand and Production Adjustment in North and South America** - Supply side: The USDA November report slightly lowered the 2025/2026 US soybean production to 4.253 billion bushels (115.775 million tons). Affected by the decline in production in the US and Argentina, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 421.75 million tons (year - on - year - 1.26%), but it is still the second - highest level in the past five years. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downward, and South American soybean production is at risk of reduction due to La Nina [29]. - Demand side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global soybean total demand in 2025/2026 is 609.51 million tons (+1.91%), with domestic consumption at 421.54 million tons (year - on - year + 2.06%) and exports at 187.97 million tons (year - on - year + 1.59%). However, the US bio - diesel policy and China's purchase demand are uncertain, which may lead to a decline in global soybean demand [33]. - Overall: The global soybean ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio will decline slightly year - on - year, and the supply - demand will be at a medium - term level in the past five years. Uncertainties include the production of US and South American soybeans, US bio - diesel policy, and China's purchase demand [43]. 4. **2025/2026 Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand is Loose, but China's Supply - Demand is Tight due to Import Restrictions on Canadian Rapeseed** - International supply - demand: Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global rapeseed production in 2025/2026 is 92.273 million tons (year - on - year + 7.30%), mainly due to the increase in production in major producing countries except Ukraine. Demand side: The total demand increased slightly year - on - year, with a significant decline in exports due to China's anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The global rapeseed supply - demand is significantly loose, with ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio reaching historical highs [44][45][46]. - China's supply - demand: Due to China's anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed, the import of Canadian rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply - demand has tightened. The future supply - demand situation depends on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and China's attitude towards Australian rapeseed imports [54][55][56]. (B) Domestic Oil Supply - Demand - Supply: In 2025, the domestic imports of soybeans and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the imports of rapeseed and palm oil decreased. The increase in soybean imports was due to concerns about supply shortages in Sino - US trade, and the decrease in palm oil imports was due to poor import profits. The import of rapeseed was restricted by the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed, while rapeseed oil imports increased as it mainly depends on Russia [58]. - Demand: In 2025, the overall domestic oil demand was weak, and the consumption of soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil. The consumption of all three oils decreased year - on - year, with soybean oil having the smallest decline due to its cost - effectiveness [59]. - Inventory: As of the end of November, the supply - demand of domestic soybeans/soybean oil was the most relaxed, followed by palm oil, and rapeseed/rapeseed oil was the most tense [59]. - Future outlook: It is expected that the three major domestic oils will enter the de - stocking stage, with rapeseed oil having the fastest de - stocking speed, followed by soybean and palm oils. The de - stocking situation of each oil is affected by factors such as production in the origin, import profits, and policies [64][65][66]. III. Market Outlook and Strategy - Global vegetable oils: The supply - demand will continue to tighten in 2025/2026, supporting the price. Uncertainties mainly focus on South American soybean and Indonesian palm oil production and bio - diesel policies in various countries [67]. - Palm oil: The current production forecast for Southeast Asia in 2026 is optimistic, but production may be lower than expected due to various factors. The implementation of the Indonesian B50 policy is uncertain. The supply - demand of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to be strong, but the inventory will decline [68]. - Soybean oil: The global soybean supply will decline year - on - year in 2025/2026, while the demand will increase. The supply - demand will be at a medium - term level. Uncertainties include the production of US and South American soybeans, US bio - diesel policy, and China's purchase demand [69]. - Rapeseed oil: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed has led to a divergence in the supply - demand of rapeseed at home and abroad. The international supply - demand is loose, while China's is tight. The future supply - demand situation in China depends on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and the import policy of Australian rapeseed [70].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for natural rubber is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract opening at 15,960.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 16,260.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.20% increase [1] - The current market for natural rubber shows a strong upward trend, with institutions suggesting a slightly strong fundamental outlook despite speculative pressures [1] - The impact of weather conditions in major Asian rubber-producing regions is causing short-term market disturbances, particularly due to Typhoon "Jianyu" affecting Hainan's rubber industry [2] Group 2 - Hainan Rubber (601118) reported damage from Typhoon "Jianyu," with approximately 0.28 million mu of rubber plantation rendered unusable and an estimated reduction of 0.25 million tons in dry rubber output for the year [2] - The overall supply impact from the disaster is considered limited, but weather remains a critical variable until the end of the peak production season [2] - The price of natural rubber is expected to remain strong as it approaches the end of the year, with seasonal trends indicating a tendency for prices to rise [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting is completed, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino-US tariffs, the price continues to decline, and weather factors may be a potential market driver. China has adjusted tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions, with short - term stability in the north and potential tight supply in North China. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream demand, with inventory increasing and limited short - term downward space for the 09 contract [3][4][5]. - In the short term, domestic 09 corn is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn due to tight supply. For trading strategies, a light - position short - term long on 09 corn can be considered, and for the spread between 09 corn and starch, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Data**: On July 16, 2025, different corn and corn starch futures contracts showed various closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of C2601 was 2293, down 2 with a decline of 0.09%, and its trading volume decreased by 15.37% to 373,438, while the open interest increased by 1.77% to 1,054,601. There are also data on basis, spreads (including corn inter - term, starch inter - term, and cross - variety spreads) [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Jiajisheng Chemical, and Zhucheng Xingmao are provided, along with their price changes and basis. The same goes for starch in different companies like Longfeng, COFCO, and Jiali [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by planting progress, tariff policies, and potential weather speculation. In China, the northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, the Northeast corn spot is stable, the supply in North China is tight, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprises have high inventory. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, but there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn [3][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong has rebounded. The starch inventory has increased this week, reaching 1346,000 tons, a monthly increase of 2.83% and a year - on - year increase of 26.27%. The starch price depends on corn prices and downstream stocking. The short - term downward space for the 09 starch contract is limited [5]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategies are proposed, suggesting that enterprises with spot positions close out short positions on corn call options, or short - term investors can try bottom - accumulating purchases [10]. Part 4: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 09 contracts [11][13][17].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the apple industry, focusing on the current market conditions, inventory levels, and future projections for apple production and pricing. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Market Conditions**: The apple futures market is currently lacking a clear trend, with the market in a transitional phase between old and new apple inventories. The focus is on the impact of new apple production and quality on future pricing for the 2025-2026 season [1][2][4]. 2. **Inventory Levels**: The inventory levels for apples are not considered high compared to historical data. Although there is a noticeable decrease in inventory from the previous year, the overall inventory levels over the past seven years have not shown significant changes [2][4]. 3. **Impact of Seasonal Fruits**: The introduction of seasonal fruits, such as lychee and watermelon, has significantly impacted apple consumption and pricing. This seasonal competition is expected to slow down the inventory depletion rate [3][9]. 4. **Price Support from Inventory**: The current inventory levels provide some support for apple prices, despite a gradual slowdown in inventory depletion. The market is not expected to see drastic price movements due to these factors [4][5]. 5. **Trade Dynamics**: Traders are not in a hurry to sell their inventory as the current levels are manageable. They are looking for better sales margins and are cautious about pricing strategies [10][11]. 6. **Weather Impact on Production**: Adverse weather conditions, such as storms and hail, can significantly affect apple production, particularly during critical growth phases. Recent weather events have raised concerns about potential localized production decreases [6][8]. 7. **Future Price Projections**: The expected price range for apples is projected to be between 7600 to 8000, with current market prices reflecting this range. The market is advised to adopt cautious trading strategies, including options trading to mitigate risks [12][13]. Other Important Insights - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions and their potential impact on apple production and pricing. - There is a suggestion for traders to consider flexible options strategies to navigate the current market volatility and potential extreme scenarios [13]. - The overall sentiment in the market is one of caution, with traders advised to remain vigilant regarding both inventory levels and external market influences [12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - **相关资讯**: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - **策略建议**: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - **重要咨讯**: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - **逻辑分析**: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - **持仓建议**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - **逻辑分析**: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - **交易策略**: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - **逻辑分析**: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - **交易策略**: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - **逻辑分析**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - **策略建议**: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - **交易策略**: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - **重要资讯**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - **交易逻辑**: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - **交易策略**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - **重要资讯**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - **交易策略**: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - **重要资讯**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - **交易策略**: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].

Core Viewpoint - The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of soybeans in China from May to July is sufficient, with oil mills operating at high levels compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall supply of soybean meal in the spot market is loose, while downstream replenishment has weakened, resulting in price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed, and the market will focus on weather-related speculation moving forward [1] - The ongoing impact of U.S.-China tariffs will continue to evolve, leading to a period of observation in the market [1]