Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

2025 年 6 月 18 日 长期趋势不改，短期节奏变换， 股债联动加速 ---2025 下半年国债期货展望 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao@gtht.com 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli@gtht.com 报告导读： 在中美伦敦谈判后，债市交易主线再次回归国内。在一季度的阶段性紧张后，当下的货币回归宽松，市场对于三季度 宽松预期较浓，同时宏观数据当下仍然疲弱，存在新一轮的做多时间窗口可能性，但我们认为整体债市在宏观不确定性下 仍将维持箱体震荡。从 Q1 货币政策执行报告的政策目标来看，相关表述如"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要 考量"、"推动社会综合融资成本下降"，鲜明地提示央行下一阶段的工作重点就是拉通胀、促增长、降成本。但当前货币 政策对基本面边际影响有限，倘若财政政策导向仍然偏向托而不举，长期利率中枢将继续下行。 去年的年报中我们提到"债牛仍将会贯穿明年全年"，当下来看央行的政策干预使得"趋势牛"变成了"震荡牛"。中美 贸易谈判的时间线具有较大不确定性，同时伴随 7 月份作为下一个国内政策官宣窗口期，短期宏观面重回平淡，预期债市 将 ...

| CTECHER | 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 业分格号:F02517 | | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 股指 | 地缘冲突加剧,结合期权工具对冲不确定性。 | 看零 | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | | 局势略有缓和,金价短期或重返震荡;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实 | 賃金 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | T 自银 | 短期料进入震荡走势。 | 農汤 | 近期市场风险偏好有所下滑,而下游需求进入淡季,铜价走高后 | | | | | | | 价格存在回调风险。 | 近期国内电解铝库存持续下滑,挤仓风险仍存,铝价维持偏强运 | 看多 | | | | | | | | 门。 | 氧化铝现货价格相对稳定,而期货价格偏弱运行,期货贴水明 | | | | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 显 ...

ab 11 June 2025 Global Research Global Precious Metals Comment Gold's pause bodes well for the next leg higher Bullish gold sentiment is unchanged The gold price has been consolidating since hitting an all-time high of $3,500 in late April. Market participants have been reacting to volatile developments on US tariffs, economic data prints and the corresponding implications for Fed policy. As the Northern Hemisphere summer months set in, trading conditions are likely also more prone to whippy price moves. In ...

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 上周沪锌主力期价先抑后扬。宏观面看，中美伦敦谈判， 未有明显变化。美国 5 月通胀数据低于预期，强化了美联 储 9 月降息。国内通胀数据依旧疲软，5 月信贷社融数据 有喜有忧，居民中长期贷款由负转正，新增社融高于预期。 周五以伊冲突升级，市场风险偏好回落。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 避险情绪升温 锌价承压下行 核心观点及策略 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 上周沪锌主力 ZN2507 合约期价 ...

黑色金属数据日报 | 2025/06/11 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月10日 | 2970.00 | 3085. 00 | 663. 50 | 1364. 50 | 791.50 | | | 涨跌值 | -4. 00 | 0. 00 | -5.00 | 1.00 | -3.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.13 | 0. 00 | -0. 75 | 0.07 | -0. 38 | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) ...

Core Viewpoint - G-III Apparel Group reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of 19 cents, surpassing analyst expectations of 12 cents, despite a 4% year-over-year decline in quarterly sales to $583.61 million, which still exceeded the Street's estimate of $580.37 million [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company experienced double-digit growth in key owned brands such as DKNY, Karl Lagerfeld, and Donna Karan, which helped offset losses from exiting the Calvin Klein jeans and sportswear businesses [2]. - G-III Apparel has withdrawn its profit guidance for FY26 due to tariff impacts and macroeconomic uncertainties, anticipating a $135 million unmitigated tariff hit, primarily in the second half of the fiscal year [2]. - The company maintains its FY2026 sales guidance at $3.14 billion, slightly above the $3.12 billion estimate [2]. Future Expectations - G-III Apparel expects lower sales in the first half of fiscal 2026 compared to the previous year, with an anticipated acceleration in the second half [3]. - For the second quarter, the company projects earnings per share between $0.02 and $0.12, with revenue expected to be around $570 million, below the $621 million estimate [3]. Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Following the earnings announcement, G-III Apparel shares fell by 2.7%, trading at $21.90 [3]. - Analysts have adjusted their price targets for G-III Apparel: Telsey Advisory Group lowered its target from $30 to $27, Keybanc reduced its target from $40 to $30, and Barclays cut its target from $21 to $18 [6][8].

黄金消息面解析：周一（6月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，目前交投在3316美元附近。伦敦金价上周四出现冲高回落，盘中曾突破3400美元关口，创 下近四周新高至3403美元/盎司。与此同时，白银价格突破35美元，创下13年新高，带动了金价的上涨。然而，随着中美领导人通话缓解了贸易紧张局势， 黄金价格随之回落。美国每周初请失业金人数连续第二周增加，市场焦点转向公布的非农就业报告。特朗普再次呼吁美联储降息，并且贸易局势的缓解直接 影响了避险资产的表现，黄金价格的下跌反映了市场对中美贸易谈判的乐观预期，从而削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。市场将密切关注非农就业数据和美联储6 月17-18日的会议决议，以判断黄金价格的短期走势。尽管短期内可能出现震荡，黄金在全球经济与地缘政治的不确定性背景下，仍具备长期投资价值。 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯，严格执行你的交易计划。一次严谨的交易=良好的心态控制＋正确 的仓位控制＋过硬的技术功力，合作从不强 ...

| Cleiking | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 股指 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 起 示 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 賣金 | 農汤 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期美国消费者信心指数走低、通胀预期走高等压制市场风险偏 | | | | | | | 好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱, 铜价短期偏弱运行。 | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,叠加氧化铝价格反弹提振, | 看头 | | | | | | 铝价短期维持偏强运行。 | 几内亚过渡政府撤销采矿证,相关企业已接到停产通知,铝土矿 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | 供应扰动提升,氧化 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-09 下游采购积极性较差 铅价或维持震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-08，LME铅现货升水为-16.08美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至16625 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/吨 至16675元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化75元/吨至16675元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10275元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10525元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-08，沪铅主力合约开于16720元/吨，收于16775元/吨，较前一交易日变化75元/吨，全天交易日 成交39686手，较前一交易日变化-5276手，全天交易日持仓34382手，手较前一交易日变化-2547手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16865元/吨，最低点达到16690元 ...