Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, which fell by 5.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 7.2%, reflects a state of market panic, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [2][6][7] - The Fear and Greed Index for both the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index is currently at historical lows, indicating a possible short-term recovery in market sentiment [7][8] Market Analysis - The decline in the Hong Kong market is attributed to several factors: 1. Unexpected growth in U.S. employment numbers alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7] 2. Concerns over high asset prices potentially leading to market corrections, which has dampened trading sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [7] - The report notes that the technology sector has been particularly hard hit, with the Hang Seng Technology Index underperforming compared to other indices [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market trend due to: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [8] 2. Continuous support for the domestic technology sector through policy initiatives, which could attract long-term capital and enhance market activity [8] - Investment strategies suggested include: 1. Focusing on emerging technology sectors such as AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization phase [8] 2. Identifying scarce resources that may benefit from valuation premiums due to shifts in energy transition and geopolitical factors [8] 3. Monitoring sectors like insurance and brokerage, which may see increased activity as low-interest rates encourage more equity investments [8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.38% to 25,220.02, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.21% to 5,395.49, reflecting a broader market adjustment influenced by tightening liquidity expectations in the U.S. [5][9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an addition of 119,000 jobs, which was above expectations but still at a low level, leading to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to 33.1% [9][5] - The AI industry chain's pullback in the U.S. has negatively impacted Hong Kong's hard tech sector, particularly the semiconductor sector, which saw significant declines [9][5] Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 285.7 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 10.5 million [2][9] - The major indices in the A-share market also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.45% and the CSI 300 down by 2.44% [5][9] - The sector performance showed that all primary sectors under the CITIC Hong Kong Stock Connect Index declined, with steel (-6.39%), non-ferrous metals (-4.39%), and retail (-4.26%) leading the losses [5][9] Industry Outlook - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential "slow bull" market as it awaits renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and clarity in AI long-term narratives [9] - The focus for medium to long-term investments should shift towards sectors driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics, which are at a critical stage of commercialization [9] - The report highlights four key investment directions: 1) Quality supply creating new demand, 2) Re-evaluation of scarce resources driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors, 3) Recovery from excess capacity in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals, and 4) Benefits to financial markets from increased market activity and low-interest environments [9]

上周五啊，大A是把很多人都吓坏了。 甚至很多人一周的亏损已经把过去的收益都给埋掉了。 那和收益一起埋掉的，还有大家的信心。 对于牛市到底还在不在的信息，都不确定了。 我看了很多评论啊，都是韭菜论，说自己是彻底当了一轮金融消费者。 我今天就想和大家唠唠关于这个牛到底还有没有，还在不在的问题啊。 首先，慢牛行情这个不是我说的。 之前的高盛都出来站台，说未来大A还能再涨30%。 大宗主要受供需关系影响，也受美联储降息影响，那如何去布局呢等等 总之啊，其实资产的知识点和概念很多，但很难一次性说完，我们都放在青麦会员课上了。 对了，成为我们的会员，我们还有一个隐藏的福利。 如果突然遇到什么大的事件，我们会给会员加餐录解读的。 昨天全球股票市场下跌，我们老师马上就录了一条解读，告诉大家为什么，以及我们可以怎么去应对。 这都属于我们会员的福利。 所以大家认可，我不想做短线，想真正做长线配置，又想相对稳稳吃肉，也想把真正的一些资产逻辑学到，你们可以拍下我们的青麦会员课—季卡。 因为这个价格，我们可能会随时调价，一杯咖啡钱，但你收获的绝对非常多 但大家纠结的点是什么呢？ 都说是慢牛吧，但大家都没怎么赚到钱。 为什么美国的股市， ...

本周股指普跌，沪深两市股票型ETF和跨境型ETF合计净流入701.21亿元。 行业主题上看，人工智能、机器人等ETF被资金看好，而银行、化工相关ETF被资金抛售。 逾700亿资金借道ETF进场 本周沪深两市成交9.23万亿元，其中沪市成交3.85万亿元，深市成交5.38万亿元。截至最新收盘，沪指报收于3834.89点，全周下跌3.9%，深证成指报收于 12538.07点，全周下跌5.13%。 数据显示，本周沪深两市股票型ETF和跨境型ETF合计净流入701.21亿元，宽基指数ETF净流入359亿元。 具体ETF方面，规模较大的10只宽基指数ETF本周合计净流入223.26亿元，其中中证500ETF净流入57.78亿元，创业板ETF、沪深300ETF净流入超44亿元。 细分来看，主要宽基指数整体资金申赎统计显示，本周中证500净流入64.29亿元，科创50、创业板指净流入均超55亿元。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 周份额 | 周资金 | ETF规模 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (π) | 幅(%) | 变化 ...

11月21日消息，三大指数集体低开，能源金属板块跌幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3896.66点，跌0.87%；深成指报 12752.72点，跌1.76%；创指报2979.37点，跌2.07%。 财信证券认为，周四，在隔夜美股以及当天日韩市场转暖的背景下，A股高开低走，成交额小幅缩量，反映出当前市场情 绪仍偏谨慎，需继续等待大盘出现明显的企稳回升信号。短期内，随着大盘近期震荡消化整理已相对充分，指数层面下探空间 或相对有限，但当日大盘高开低走的行情给市场带来了一定不确定性。中期来看，在全球科技投资热情不减、"反内卷"政策持 续推进、居民储蓄入市等因素支撑下，本轮慢牛行情的根基并未动摇，后续A股指数仍存在继续走强的基础。 机构观点： 东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场高开低走，震荡调整。盘面上，海南、银行等板块涨幅居前，美容护理、光伏设备、食品 加工等板块跌幅居前。走势上看，上证指数虽未跌破周二低点3926点，但收盘也很接近，且周四阴线反包周三的震荡十字，技 术上短期往3900点整数关口下探概率加大。创业板指数亦是高开低走，收盘跌破60日均线，且近乎最低点收盘，创业板指数技 术走势看继续向3000点整数关口甚至5月线需 ...

东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场高开低走，震荡调整。盘面上，海南、银行等板块涨幅居前，美容护 理、光伏设备、食品加工等板块跌幅居前。走势上看，上证指数虽未跌破周二低点3926点，但收盘也很 接近，且周四阴线反包周三的震荡十字，技术上短期往3900点整数关口下探概率加大。创业板指数亦是 高开低走，收盘跌破60日均线，且近乎最低点收盘，创业板指数技术走势看继续向3000点整数关口甚至 5月线需求支撑的概率加大。 财信证券认为，周四，在隔夜美股以及当天日韩市场转暖的背景下，A股高开低走，成交额小幅缩量， 反映出当前市场情绪仍偏谨慎，需继续等待大盘出现明显的企稳回升信号。短期内，随着大盘近期震荡 消化整理已相对充分，指数层面下探空间或相对有限，但当日大盘高开低走的行情给市场带来了一定不 确定性。中期来看，在全球科技投资热情不减、"反内卷"政策持续推进、居民储蓄入市等因素支撑下， 本轮慢牛行情的根基并未动摇，后续A股指数仍存在继续走强的基础。 东莞证券认为，周四，A股市场高开低走，缩量调整。盘面上，建筑材料、综合、银行、通信和房地产 等板块涨幅靠前；美容护理、煤炭、电力设备、石油石化和商贸零售等板块跌幅靠前。当前市场仍处于 ...

Group 1 - The current market is in a consolidation phase of a slow bull market, allowing for a temporary pause before resuming upward momentum [6][7][20] - The slow bull market is characterized by alternating phases of growth and consolidation, with significant market movements observed in specific time frames [8][11][13][15] - Key factors driving the slow bull market include supportive policies, focus on economic development, and ongoing global liquidity [22][25][26] Group 2 - The market is expected to oscillate between the high points of November and the low points of September during the consolidation phase [28] - Dividend-paying assets are likely to perform well during this period, while growth-style assets should be accumulated at lower prices [29] - Potential catalysts for breaking out of the consolidation phase include economic stimulus policies, breakthroughs in key technology sectors, and funding flows driven by higher-level decisions [29]

市场早盘高开低走，中证A500指数上涨0.11%。 有券商表示，中期来看，在全球科技投资热情不减、"反内卷"政策持续推进、居民储蓄入市等因素支撑下，本轮慢牛行情的根基并未动摇，后续A股指数仍 存在继续走强的基础。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | IOPV 溢折率 换手率 成交金额 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512050 | A500ETF基金 | 1.159 | 0.17% | 1.1593 -0.03% 19.21% 37.04亿 | | | 563360 | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | 1.232 | 0.16% | 1.2318 0.02% 12.64% | 32.70 Z | | 159361 | A500ETF易方达 | 1.187 | 0.25% | 1.1868 0.02% 12.70% | 29.06 Z | | 159338 | 中证A500ETF | 1.166 | 0.09% | 1.1665 -0.04% 13.43% | 28.67 Z | | 159352 | A500ETF南方 | 1.213 | 0.2 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, national defense, beauty care, and banking showing strong gains, while sectors like comprehensive services, real estate, media, construction materials, and retail faced declines [1][1][1] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase around the 4000-point mark, with a long-term upward trend expected to continue [1][1][1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in shipbuilding, precious metals, energy metals, and banking, while internet services, software development, cultural media, and electronic components lagged behind [1][1] - The market is in a critical phase for positioning for the upcoming year, with a likelihood of continued consolidation around the 4000-point level [1][1] Investor Sentiment - The stabilization of A-share indices is seen as a positive factor for short-term market confidence [1] - Despite geopolitical tensions leading to cautious funding behavior, the potential for increased market volatility remains [1] - Mid-term outlook remains optimistic due to sustained global tech investment enthusiasm, ongoing "anti-involution" policies, and increased retail investment [1][1]

丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 海外策略：美股 AI 泡沫是否存在？进行到哪儿 了？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从估值、流动性和资本开支三个角度来看，美股 AI 当前并没有明显的出现泡沫的迹象。从估值 来看，当前纳斯达克指数当前估值难言较低，但相比于 2000 年科网泡沫时期仍有差距。从流 动性角度看，12 月美联储降息的预期正逐步减弱，市场流动性过度充裕的可能性不大。分析资 本开支数据，美国企业层面的扩张行为与科网泡沫时期有所不同，当前的扩张行为仍较为有序。 市场仍然未到需要担忧 AI 泡沫是否会破裂的阶段，即使最终会形成泡沫，当前也只是在形成泡 沫的早期演进期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 海外策略：美股2] AI 泡沫是否存在？进行到哪儿 了？ [Table_Summary2] 市场焦点 1：美股 AI 泡沫是否存在？进行到哪儿了？ 导读：近期随着对于 ...