Group 1 - The article emphasizes the tactical overweight view on A/H shares due to multiple supporting factors such as China's technological breakthroughs, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that enhance market risk appetite [1] - The article notes that the trade risk boundaries are clearer, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, making further U.S. tariffs less meaningful [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, anticipating a mild decline in actual interest rates due to the Fed's increasingly dovish monetary policy guidance [1] - The article highlights that the imbalance between credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market, despite previous adjustments [2] - The article expresses a positive outlook on gold, noting that it has surpassed key resistance levels and is supported by global geopolitical tensions and ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [2] Group 3 - The article asserts that the resilience of the Chinese economy and the decreasing risk of extreme geopolitical conflicts support the stability and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate [3] - It predicts that the RMB will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable appreciation trend amid a complex global macro environment [3]

Group 1 - The article maintains a tactical overweight view on A/H shares, supported by multiple factors such as the ongoing enthusiasm for China's technological breakthroughs and emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that boost market risk appetite [1] - The article highlights that the trade risks are relatively clear, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, and the impact of U.S. tariffs becoming less significant [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need for investors to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article suggests a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, as expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve may lead to a mild decline in real interest rates [1] - The article notes that the balance of credit supply and demand remains unbalanced, which, along with stable liquidity, supports the bond market [2] - The article anticipates that geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion will lead to fluctuations in domestic interest rates, while the marginal improvement in liquidity may stabilize bond market sentiment [2] Group 3 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on the Chinese yuan, citing the resilience of the Chinese economy and the expectation of a stable appreciation of the yuan amid a complex global macro environment [3] - It is expected that the yuan will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable central tendency [3] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for gold, maintaining a tactical overweight view, as gold prices have surged past key resistance levels due to supportive factors such as Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] - The article predicts that gold will continue to perform well in the short term and has long-term allocation value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, while Chinese equity assets and gold may still present performance opportunities. It recommends increasing holdings in AH shares and gold in October, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments, aimed at guiding investment decisions [1]. - SAA is designed to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio robustness [1]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The report is optimistic about Chinese equities, recommending an equity allocation weight of 41.25% for October, with overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The report indicates that geopolitical uncertainties may create buying opportunities in the Chinese market, suggesting that the current market adjustments are not the end of the upward trend [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation - The report maintains a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a bond allocation weight of 45% for October, with standard allocations to both long-term and short-term government bonds [3]. - It notes that the imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The report expresses a neutral to optimistic view on commodities, recommending a commodity allocation weight of 13.75% for October, with an overweight position in gold [3]. - It highlights that gold prices have recently surged past key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts are beneficial for the healthy operation of the U.S. economy and enhance global macro liquidity [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Equity Market - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite marginal convergence, and the AI industry has vast development potential, supporting a positive outlook for U.S. equities [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive monetary policy adjustments help maintain a healthy economic trend and avoid inflation and employment risks, ensuring liquidity stability in the U.S. stock market [2] - The U.S. stock market is considered to have a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value in the current phase [2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The internal inflation stickiness and the potential for a mild decline in real interest rates lead to a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global macro liquidity, which may help suppress internal inflation stickiness and real interest rates [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as having a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 3: Commodities - The improvement in global macro liquidity and the decline in real interest rates are expected to support gold performance [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the holding costs of gold, positively impacting gold prices [2] - Gold is considered to have a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 4: Currency Market - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the decrease in extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] - The Chinese economy is showing stable growth, with strong growth momentum compared to other major economies, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation [3] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to exhibit a two-way fluctuation trend, with a central tendency of gradual appreciation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, expressing optimism towards A-shares due to improved economic outlook, government support for capital markets, stable market liquidity, and improved risk appetite [1][2][3]. Group 1: Equity Assets - The economic outlook for A-shares has been continuously upgraded, supported by strong government backing for capital market development and stable market liquidity [2][3]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight on A-shares, indicating a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value in Chinese equity assets [3]. Group 2: Bond Assets - The report maintains a tactical neutral stance on U.S. Treasuries, as the market adjusts to expectations of looser monetary policy amid a slight cooling in the U.S. labor market [2][4]. - U.S. Treasuries are viewed as having a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [4]. Group 3: Commodity Assets - The report suggests a tactical neutral stance on gold, which may benefit from rising geopolitical tensions and adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, lowering the cost of holding gold [2][5]. - Gold is considered to have a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [5]. Group 4: Currency Assets - The report maintains a tactical underweight on the U.S. dollar, as expectations of looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve may weaken the dollar's performance relative to other currencies [2][6]. - The dollar is assessed to have a low risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [6].

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight position in A-shares, a neutral position in US Treasuries and gold, and an underweight position in the US dollar [1][11][12] - The report expresses optimism about A-shares due to improved economic outlook, strong government support for capital market development, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [11][12] - The report highlights that the US labor market's cooling has reinforced expectations for a "preventive" easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with the market fully pricing in a rate cut in September [9][11] Group 2 - The report indicates that multiple factors are likely to support the continued performance of Chinese assets, maintaining a tactical overweight view on A-shares [12][14] - The report notes that the US Treasury market is expected to have a neutral tactical allocation due to the marginal cooling of the US economy and labor market, which has strengthened expectations for easing monetary policy [12][14] - The report suggests that gold prices may benefit from rising geopolitical tensions and adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, maintaining a neutral tactical view on gold [12][14] Group 3 - The report states that the Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts are likely to weaken the interest returns on the US dollar, leading to a tactical underweight view on the dollar [13][14] - The report provides a tactical asset allocation summary, indicating an overweight in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, while maintaining neutral positions in European and Indian equities [14][15] - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, with A-shares showing a year-to-date increase of 15.48% and a weekly increase of 1.52% [7][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a tactical overweight view on A-shares and US stocks for August, driven by improving market risk appetite and expectations of economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to risk assets significantly outperforming safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [1]. - The expectation of continued economic growth and government support for capital markets is leading to a highly optimistic outlook for A-shares [1]. - The US stock market is viewed positively due to a reduced probability of recession and increasing chances of interest rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - The current low-interest-rate environment necessitates higher demands for asset allocation research, with a long-term trend of increased institutional investment in capital markets [1]. - A strategic asset allocation (SAA) plan has been constructed based on macro factors, achieving an annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57 as of the end of July [1]. - The proposed strategic benchmark allocation is set at 45% for equities, 45% for bonds, and 10% for commodities, with a deviation limit of 10% [1]. Group 3: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The improvement in risk appetite is identified as a core factor influencing the current tactical asset allocation, with multiple factors expected to support continued strong performance in equity assets [2]. - The TAA plan projects an annualized return of 55% by 2025, with a high Sharpe ratio of 1.65 based on full sample backtesting [2]. Group 4: Specific Allocation Recommendations - For August, the recommended allocation is 55% in equities, 40% in bonds, and 5% in commodities [3]. - A positive outlook is maintained for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to stable economic growth expectations and government support [3]. - Caution is advised regarding government bonds due to pressures from market risk appetite and capital redemption [3]. - The outlook for commodities, particularly oil, remains cautious due to supply and demand pressures [3].

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in A-shares and US stocks, a neutral position in RMB, and an underweight in oil [1][15][16] - A-shares are expected to perform well due to improving economic sentiment, strong government support for capital markets, stable market liquidity, and an improving micro trading structure [15][16] - The US stock market is viewed positively despite recent employment data revisions, with expectations of continued resilience in the economy [15][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the oil market remains under pressure from both supply and demand sides, leading to a tactical underweight recommendation for oil [15][16] - The RMB is expected to maintain stability and appreciate due to the resilient growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [15][17] - The tactical asset allocation strategy reflects expectations of high risk-return ratios for Chinese equities and US stocks, while suggesting a cautious approach towards oil investments [15][16][17]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight position in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in the Chinese yuan, and an underweight position in commodities, Japanese stocks, and US Treasuries [1][2][6] - Recent market performance has been driven by improved risk appetite, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds, and the report expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to rising liquidity and risk preference [2][22] - The report highlights the significant impact of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project on investor sentiment and related industry earnings expectations, indicating a shift in international capital flows towards Hong Kong stocks [6][19][26] Group 2 - The report reviews major events affecting asset pricing, including Trump's denial of plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, which alleviated some market concerns about Fed independence [19][22] - The report notes that the Japanese ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the Senate may weaken policy predictability, increasing volatility in Japanese asset pricing [23] - The report emphasizes that while infrastructure investment may temporarily support commodity prices, it maintains a cautious stance on commodities due to ongoing supply and demand pressures [26][27] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes an overweight in Hong Kong stocks due to strong performance and improved risk appetite, while maintaining a cautious view on US Treasuries amid concerns over fiscal pressures and economic resilience [26][27] - The report suggests that the Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable due to resilient economic growth compared to other major economies, supporting a neutral allocation stance [27][30] - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, indicating that the tactical asset allocation portfolio achieved a cumulative excess return of 2.87% relative to the benchmark [35][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, with a neutral stance on A-shares, a tactical underweight on US Treasuries, and a tactical overweight on gold [1][2]. - A-shares are expected to perform well due to the easing of policy uncertainties and a downward trend in risk-free interest rates, which enhances market risk appetite [1]. - The US Treasury market faces challenges due to unpredictable policies from the Trump administration, leading to higher yield requirements and a potential upward trend in real interest rates [1][2]. Group 2 - Gold is viewed as a nearly perfect hedge against various risks, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions and potential economic recession or stagflation [2]. - The recent political struggles within the US government and the complex global macro environment contribute to a favorable risk-return profile for gold [2]. - Tactical active asset allocation strategies have been implemented, with domestic and global active asset allocation portfolios showing varying degrees of excess returns [3].