"印钱"本质是央行通过特定方式增加货币供应量，网上常说央行"印钱"，有人担心货币贬值，但普通人日常感知不明显。 以"xx奶茶"为例，其接到10万美元海外订单，需将美元兑换为人民币用于国内开支。商业银行收下10万美元，按7:1汇率向其账户发放70万元人民币。商业 银行积累一定外汇后，会在银行间外汇市场交易，央行作为最终买方买入外汇、形成外汇储备，同时向市场投放对应金额的基础货币。 这些新钱究竟如何产生、又流向何处？理解这一过程需拆解现代货币体系逻辑。 不妨做个假设：你穿越到古代成为皇帝，刚上任就遇敌军攻城，召集群臣却被告知"钱不够"。你提出"印钱"，大臣们却满脸困惑——古代货币无法凭空创 造，即便有纸币，也需金银作为背书，这就是"金本位"。 1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解，美元与黄金彻底脱钩，全球货币陆续放弃金本位，转而依靠国家信用支撑。此后，货币供应量不再受金矿储量限制，央行可通 过外汇、债务等资产发行基础货币，再由商业银行进一步创造货币，形成广义货币（M2）。 央行"无中生有"创造货币，主要有三种核心方式： 从资产负债表看，央行资产端增加"外汇储备10万美元"，负债端增加"基础货币70万元"。这种通过买入外汇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal revenue in China has shown stability and growth in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a positive economic trend, with tax revenue growth turning from negative to positive for the first time this year [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - National general public budget revenue reached 148198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [2]. - National tax revenue totaled 121085 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [2]. - The four major tax categories (domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax) all maintained growth in the first eight months [2]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, the largest tax source, generated approximately 47000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2]. - Corporate income tax, the second-largest source, amounted to about 32000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [2]. - Domestic consumption tax generated around 12000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [2]. - Individual income tax reached approximately 11000 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 8.9%, attributed to rising property income among certain demographics [2]. Group 3: Non-Tax Revenue and Government Fund Income - Non-tax revenue for the first eight months was 27113 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth rate of 11.7% [3]. - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was 26449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with land use rights transfer income at 19263 billion yuan, down 4.7% [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure and Debt Financing - National general public budget expenditure reached 179324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with a focus on social welfare and employment, education, and health care [6]. - Social security and employment expenditure exceeded 30000 billion yuan, growing by 10% year-on-year [6]. - Government bond net financing for the first eight months was 102700 billion yuan, an increase of 46300 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting a more proactive fiscal policy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The most significant change in the August financial data is the acceleration of "deposit migration," with household deposits declining for two consecutive months beyond seasonal trends, while non-bank deposits have seen a substantial increase [2][8][53]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, household deposits decreased by 6000 million year-on-year, with a net increase of only 1100 million, marking two consecutive months of negative growth compared to seasonal averages, a first for 2025 [2][5][8]. - Non-bank deposits reached a record high for the same period, with an increase of 11800 million, indicating a shift in asset structure among residents [2][5][8]. - The relationship between household and non-bank deposits reflects a "seesaw" effect closely tied to capital market performance, suggesting early signs of changes in residents' asset allocation [2][8][53]. Group 2: Loan Trends - Household loans remain weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 1597 million, consistent with low consumer confidence levels [2][14][53]. - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy only started in September, meaning August data does not reflect its impact [2][14][53]. - The employment outlook is uncertain, as indicated by the Business Confidence Index (BCI) for hiring expectations, which fell to 44.07 in August, the lowest since March 2020 [2][14][53]. Group 3: Corporate Loan Dynamics - In August, the growth rate of medium and long-term corporate loans showed signs of stabilization, while short-term loans and bill financing decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 9.7% [3][20][54]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rebounded to -2.9% year-on-year, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for business expectations rose from 52.6 to 53.7, indicating a potential shift in corporate investment attitudes from cautious to watchful [3][20][54]. Group 4: Social Financing and Policy Outlook - The growth rate of social financing stock declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8.8%, primarily due to the end of front-loaded fiscal financing [3][26][54]. - From January to July 2025, social financing stock growth accelerated from 8.0% to 9.0%, largely driven by front-loaded government bond financing, which totaled an additional 4.8 trillion [3][26][54]. - Future fiscal and monetary policy coordination may provide marginal support for the stability of social financing, with new subsidy policies and innovative financial tools expected to enhance credit and social capital mobilization [3][29][54]. Group 5: Overall Financial Data - In August, new credit totaled 5900 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3100 million, primarily from the corporate sector [4][36][56]. - The total social financing in August was 25700 million, down 4623 million year-on-year, mainly due to government bonds [4][36][56]. - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8%, while the new M1 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6% [5][43][57].

Group 1 - As of the end of August 2025, China's social financing scale reached 433.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 265.42 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first eight months of 2025 was 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, noted that the combination of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has supported the growth of social financing [1] - The scale of social financing that includes government bonds has become a leading indicator for the recovery of the Chinese economy [1] - Direct financing, primarily through government and corporate bonds, has been growing faster than credit financing, indicating a shift in the financing structure that aligns better with economic transformation [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the fourth quarter is crucial for achieving the annual and "14th Five-Year" economic targets, with expectations for new policies to be introduced [2] - Key sectors such as infrastructure and real estate are anticipated to receive more favorable policies, especially with the continued growth of government bond issuance [2] - Financial data is expected to improve, supported by factors like the "Golden September and Silver October" in real estate [2]

Core Points - China Agricultural Bank will distribute the "2025 Shanghai Government Refinancing General Bond (Phase IV)" starting September 1, 2025, with a bond code of 2505951 [1] - The bond has a fixed interest rate of 1.6800% and a maturity of 5 years, with annual interest payments [1] - The funds raised will be used to repay the principal of Shanghai government bonds maturing in 2025, as per the Ministry of Finance's requirements [1] Distribution and Subscription - The bond will be available to individual investors, financial institutions, and non-financial institutions nationwide, with subscriptions through various channels including bank branches and online banking [1] - The minimum subscription unit is one bond (face value of 100 yuan), with no upper limit on the number of subscriptions [1] - The subscription period is from 10:00 AM to 4:50 PM on working days, and it operates on a first-come, first-served basis until sold out [1] Payment and Taxation - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau will handle the repayment of principal and interest, with China Agricultural Bank acting as an agent for the payment to customers [2] - Interest income from the bonds is exempt from corporate and personal income tax, according to regulations from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation [2] - Investors can verify their bond balance through the Central Government Securities Depository Trust and Clearing Co., Ltd. starting from the bond listing date [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the acceleration of government bond issuance and utilization as part of a proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth [1][2][6] - As of August 26, 2023, the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 996 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 76.6% [2][6] - Local government special bonds have been issued at a scale of 31,497.6 billion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [6][7] Group 2 - The plan for 2025 includes issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from 2024, focusing on key areas [2] - The funds from ultra-long special government bonds are expected to support significant investments, including 1 trillion yuan in total investment driven by 188 billion yuan allocated for equipment updates [2][9] - The use of local government special bonds has expanded, with 28.2% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18.8% to transportation infrastructure, and 12.9% to land reserves [7][8] Group 3 - The issuance of local government special bonds is expected to stabilize and improve the real estate market by funding land reserves and the acquisition of existing properties [8][9] - The government is actively expanding the scope of special bond usage, including investments in government investment guidance funds [8][9] - Experts predict that the combined efforts of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds will significantly stimulate investment and support domestic demand [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies in China, which are contributing to stable economic performance, as evidenced by the fiscal data for the first seven months of the year [1][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of this year, the total general fiscal revenue was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1]. - General fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3% [1]. - The fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47% [1]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue, often referred to as the "economic barometer," has shown improvement, with stable growth in VAT and significant increases in securities transaction stamp duty due to active stock market trading [2]. - The decline in tax revenue has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of only 0.3% for the first seven months, compared to a 3.5% decline in the first quarter [1][2]. Land Sales and Local Government Revenue - The revenue from land sales, a component of local government funds, was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [3]. - Major cities have increased the supply of quality land to stabilize the real estate market, contributing to a recovery in land sale revenues [2]. Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [4]. - The government is accelerating bond issuance to maintain fiscal expenditure levels, particularly in social welfare sectors such as social security, education, and healthcare [4]. Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government plans to continue implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to support economic growth and social stability [6]. - Despite concerns about potential reductions in fiscal spending in the second half of the year, estimates suggest that the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth rate could remain between 4.1% and 6.7% [5].

Core Insights - The central point of the article is the significant increase in government bond financing in July, which has contributed to the overall growth in social financing, with a net financing of 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] Group 1: Government Bond Financing - In July, the issuance of special bonds saw a substantial year-on-year increase, leading to a rise in government bond financing by 555.9 billion yuan [1] - Analysts suggest that government bond issuance will continue to support social financing in the second half of the year, although the pace may gradually slow down due to remaining quota considerations [1] Group 2: Impact on Loan Data - The impact of local government bond replacement on loan data remains significant, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds used for debt repayment, affecting loan growth by approximately 1 percentage point [1] - After adjusting for the impact of debt repayment, the year-on-year loan growth rate in July is close to 8%, indicating a relatively strong level [1] Group 3: Long-term Implications - Long-term, local debt replacement is expected to facilitate risk clearance and financial stability, allowing for more local financial resources to benefit people's livelihoods and promote development [1] - This process is also anticipated to release more credit resources to flow into the real economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's data indicates that as of the end of July, social financing scale, broad money (M2), and RMB loans grew by 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% year-on-year, respectively, continuing to outpace economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Growth Analysis - In July, credit growth slowed due to multiple factors including seasonal effects, local government debt swaps, and financial institutions reducing excessive competition, leading to a decrease in the loan growth rate to 6.9%, down from 8.7% the previous year [2][3]. - July is traditionally a low month for credit, as June often sees higher lending due to banks' performance assessments and businesses' cash flow needs [2][3]. - The impact of local government debt swaps on loan data remains significant, with estimates suggesting that these swaps have influenced loan growth by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financing Environment - The high growth rates of social financing scale and M2 reflect a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a suitable financial environment for the real economy [4][5]. - As of the end of July, the social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, indicating a robust increase in financing activities [4]. - Government bond issuance has been a major driver of social financing growth, with a more proactive fiscal policy supporting economic demand [4][5]. Group 3: Loan Structure and Interest Rates - The structure of loans is optimizing to meet the demands of economic transformation, with inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing showing growth rates of 11.8% and 8.5%, respectively [7]. - Loan interest rates remain low, with new corporate loans averaging around 3.2% and personal housing loans at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a favorable credit supply environment [7]. - The reduction in financing costs has positively impacted effective demand, with some businesses reporting interest rates halved compared to previous levels [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that macroeconomic policies will maintain continuity and stability in the second half of the year, supporting employment, businesses, and market expectations, which will facilitate smoother domestic economic circulation [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in social financing scale and the ongoing supportive monetary policy, with a cumulative increase of 23.99 trillion yuan in social financing by the end of July, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The growth rate of broad money supply (M2) reached 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a relatively loose monetary policy stance [1] - The government bond issuance has been robust, with a cumulative net financing of government bonds increasing by 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting the overall social financing scale [6] Group 2 - The loan balance of RMB increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with external factors such as local government debt management and the reform of small and medium-sized banks affecting the loan growth rate [2] - The structure of credit is continuously optimizing, with loans in technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital economy sectors growing significantly faster than the overall loan growth rate [4] - The interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans have decreased, with corporate loan rates around 3.2% and personal housing loan rates around 3.1%, reflecting a relatively abundant credit supply [5] Group 3 - The shift towards direct financing is becoming more pronounced, with the proportion of direct financing increasing to better meet the diverse financing needs of enterprises [7] - The ongoing policies aimed at stimulating consumption and enhancing technology are showing positive effects, as evidenced by the increased willingness of the manufacturing sector to engage in long-term investments [4] - The financial institutions are adapting to changes in the economic structure, focusing on identifying effective credit demand in niche markets [3]