【导读】 七位券商首席研判2026年市场：A股、港股大概率继续上行，"科技+出海"仍是主 线 【编者按】2025年接近尾声，中国基金报推出"2025年终报道"，梳理总结2025年公募基 金、券商行业、热门产业发展变化和大事件，展望2026年股市机会和基金行业发展前景，以 飨读者。 中国基金报记者 券商报道组 2025年，A股、港股上演超预期的结构性行情，科技与有色板块共舞，年初的研判是否"兑 现"？展望2026年，宏观经济走向如何？资本市场大势怎么看？有哪些机会？ 中国基金报采访了七位券商首席策略分析师，把脉2026年市场走势，他们分别是 中信证券首 席A股策略师裘翔、华泰证券研究所策略首席兼金工首席何康、招商证券首席策略分析师张 夏、中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛、兴业证券A股首席策略分析师张启尧、国投证券策略 首席分析师林荣雄、西部证券研究发展中心首席策略分析师曹柳龙 。 2025年市场震荡上行 张启尧： 今年市场超预期的地方在于，以DeepSeek、半导体、机器人、六代机、创新药等 为代表的各领域"多点开花"引发产业价值重估，以及市场中长期宏观"叙事"和认知的转变， 进一步强化本轮牛市的逻辑并拔高行情天 ...

Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period will achieve five transformations in macroeconomic growth models, supply-demand relationships, reform and opening up, risk prevention, and bottom-line thinking [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Transformations - The economic growth model will shift towards high-quality development, emphasizing innovation and modernization of industries [29]. - Supply-demand relationships will be rebalanced, focusing on expanding domestic demand and integrating investments in both physical and human capital [42]. - Comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up will be prioritized, with a focus on high-level external openness and attracting foreign investment [48][49]. - Risk prevention will adjust its focus, with traditional risks in real estate and local government debt converging, while external risks and price stability will be monitored [51][53]. - The concept of bottom-line thinking will be upgraded, emphasizing safety, livelihood, and financial stability [56]. Group 2: 2026 Economic Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be a year of transformation and upgrading, with a focus on boosting domestic demand and risk mitigation [2]. - Key highlights for 2026 include a gradual easing of tariff impacts, allowing exports to maintain resilience [58]. - Accelerated breakthroughs in technological innovation will drive industrial upgrades, enhancing overall productivity and corporate profitability [63]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption will be strengthened, creating a more robust foundation for domestic demand [66]. - A moderate recovery in prices is anticipated, with CPI expected to rise above 0.5% and PPI narrowing its decline [69]. - The new infrastructure initiative will gain momentum, providing mid-term support for growth through significant project implementations [71].

Group 1 - The current A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are entering a "new four bulls" upward corridor, driven by four forces, with the market expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern into 2026 [2] - The central tendency of the Chinese stock market is anticipated to gradually rise, indicating a positive outlook for the market [2] Group 2 - The fixed income market is undergoing changes, with a focus on the latest applications and thoughts on the analysis framework [4] - The 2025 "fixed income +" market is expected to maintain its popularity and continue expanding, with a focus on core asset allocation directions [8] Group 3 - The upcoming earnings call for Kingsoft Cloud will be a critical point to validate its narrative as the "AI cloud first stock," with expectations for data and guidance to exceed forecasts, boosting market confidence in its long-term growth potential [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of nearly 1%, closing below 4000 points, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.96 trillion yuan, a decrease of 839 billion yuan compared to the previous period [1] - The banking sector showed resilience, with major banks like ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China reaching new highs, and the bank ETF (512800) increasing by nearly 1.2% during intraday trading [1][6] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector has become a "safe haven" during market downturns, with the bank ETF (512800) seeing a significant increase in shares by 61 billion since October [10] - The bank index has risen over 9% since October, outperforming the broader market and the ChiNext Index by 12.91 percentage points [8] - Institutional interest in the banking sector has surged, with 11 banks undergoing research by 62 institutions in the fourth quarter [10] Group 3: AI and Computing Power Sector - The AI computing power sector faced a significant downturn, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) dropping over 3% in a single day [17] - Major companies in the computing power sector, such as Xinyisheng, have seen substantial declines, with Xinyisheng down over 24% from its peak [17][21] - Despite the recent downturn, there is optimism regarding the long-term growth potential of the AI computing power sector, driven by increasing demand for AI applications [23] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector demonstrated defensive strength, with the only pharmaceutical ETF (562050) showing resilience amid market volatility [11] - The pharmaceutical ETF has gained 3.33% over the week, outperforming the broader market [15] - The sector is expected to benefit from increasing demand due to an aging population and rising healthcare awareness [16]

Group 1 - The core logic driving the bullish trend in AH stocks includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade, with a "slow bull" market expected to continue until 2026 [1][2] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a foundational year with a GDP growth forecast of around 5%, supported by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [4] - The "new four bulls" concept, which includes capital inflow bull, technological innovation bull, institutional reform bull, and consumption upgrade bull, is expected to drive the market towards a gradual upward trend [5] Group 2 - The macroeconomic focus for 2026 should be on the trajectory of the technological industrial revolution, with indicators such as U.S. technology capital expenditure being crucial for assessing global asset allocation [6][7] - The real estate market is expected to transition from a financial product to a consumer product, drawing parallels with Japan's aging population and housing market dynamics [8] - The AI industry revolution is ongoing, with significant demand for computing power and applications anticipated, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook [9] Group 3 - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant growth, with a potential market size comparable to that of automobiles and consumer electronics, indicating substantial valuation space [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are entering a "new four bulls" phase driven by capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade, with a gradual upward trend expected through 2026 [2] - The "new four bulls" market is anticipated to focus on themes such as technological self-reliance, industrial upgrading, and resource security, with opportunities identified in AI, semiconductors, computers, primary products, small metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [2] - The A-share market is seeing a significant capital inflow into the defense and military industry, with a net inflow of 8.46 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The A50 ETF, A100 ETF, and A500 ETF are highlighted as key investment vehicles for investors looking to gain exposure to China's market, tracking major indices [2] - The overall market performance shows a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.97% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.93% on the same day [1] - The total trading volume across both markets was 1.96 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 839 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.97%, Shenzhen Component down by 1.93%, and ChiNext down by 2.82% on November 14, 2025, with a total trading volume of 1,958.1 billion yuan [1] ETF Performance - Oil and gas-related ETFs led the gains, with the top performers including: - Oil and Gas ETF Bosera (561760) up by 2.02% - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (159309) up by 1.68% - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (263150) up by 1.48% [2] - Conversely, the top decliners included: - Sino-Korea Semiconductor ETF (513310) down by 4.45% - Hang Seng Internet ETF (159688) down by 3.66% - ChiNext AI ETF Guotai (159388) down by 3.64% [4] Sector Insights - Guolian Minsheng Securities noted that OPEC+ unexpected production increases and U.S. tariffs are pressuring oil prices, but a slowdown in U.S. oil and gas production growth may provide fundamental support. The focus remains on leading oil and gas central enterprises with quality upstream assets and high dividends [3] - The current investment strategy is diversified, emphasizing "anti-involution," domestic demand, and emerging industries. The traditional cyclical chemical sector is expected to see improvements as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [3] A-share Strategy Outlook - Guoxin Securities projected that the bull market initiated in 2024 is not over, entering its second phase with a shift from sentiment to fundamentals. The focus for 2026 will be on technology, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and smart driving [5] - The market is expected to revolve around themes of technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and resource security, with opportunities in AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [5] ETF Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360) had the highest trading volume at 19.797 billion yuan, followed by Silver Hua Daily ETF (211880) at 12.553 billion yuan and Huabao Tianyi ETF (211990) at 11.818 billion yuan [6][7] - The National Debt Policy Bond ETF (511580) led in turnover rate at 275%, indicating high trading activity [7] New ETF Launch - A new QDII product, the Hang Seng Technology ETF Southern (520570), will be launched next Monday, tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index. It is suitable for investors optimistic about China's long-term tech development [8]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Summit highlighted that 2026 will be a year of solidifying foundations and comprehensive efforts, with a focus on innovation, domestic demand, and a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy environment [2] Economic Outlook - GDP growth is expected to remain around 5% in 2026, supported by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [3] - The monetary policy is anticipated to be in a loosening cycle, with a potential 50 basis points decrease in the reserve requirement ratio and continued interest rate cuts [3] Market Trends - The "slow bull" market trend is expected to continue from now until 2026, driven by the "new four bulls" concept, which includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrades [4] - The Chinese stock market is projected to gradually shift upward as it enters the "new four bulls" ascending corridor [4] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for medium to long-term investment include AI, semiconductors, computers, primary products, small metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [5] - In the bond market, a loosening monetary policy is expected to lead to a downward trend in yields over the long term [5] Global Asset Focus - Attention should be paid to the trajectory of the technological industrial revolution, with U.S. tech capital expenditure serving as a key indicator [6] - If the tech cycle remains in an expansion phase, assets like copper may perform well, while safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold may face pressure [6] Real Estate Insights - The real estate market is expected to transition from a financial product to a consumer good, drawing parallels with Japan's aging population and housing market dynamics [8] AI Industry Revolution - The ongoing AI industrial revolution is anticipated to have profound impacts, with significant demand for computing power and applications expected [9] Humanoid Robots Market - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early stages, with significant valuation potential as it develops [10] - The market for humanoid robots could reach trillion-dollar valuations, with ongoing competition expected to reshape the industry landscape [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for the Chinese capital market in 2026, driven by a "slow bull" market characterized by the "New Four Bulls" framework, which includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Growth - In 2026, both fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be accommodative, providing a favorable environment for the capital market and macroeconomic stability [3]. - The anticipated GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is around 5%, with a focus on boosting domestic demand through effective investment and consumption [4]. - The article highlights a significant shift towards investing in human capital, which is expected to stimulate short-term consumption and enhance long-term economic quality [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The "New Four Bulls" framework is expected to drive a slow bull market in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026 [5]. - The "capital inflow bull" indicates favorable macro conditions for attracting global capital back to China, with a shift in asset allocation from physical to financial assets [5]. - The "technology innovation bull" is anticipated to benefit from China's advancements in technology and industrial upgrades, becoming a key investment theme [5]. - The "institutional reform bull" reflects improvements in capital market structures, with a shift from financing-led to investment-led market dynamics [5]. - The "consumption upgrade bull" is linked to the rising consumer market as GDP per capita surpasses $10,000, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [5]. Group 3: Commodity Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic investment value of gold, driven by geopolitical factors and the trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves, suggesting a long-term investment opportunity in the gold market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The new rise of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is driven by the "New Four Bulls" logic, which includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [1][2]. Group 1: New Four Bulls Logic - Capital inflow is a significant factor driving the market [2]. - Technological innovation is expected to play a crucial role in market dynamics [2]. - Institutional reform is anticipated to enhance market efficiency and attractiveness [2]. - Consumption upgrade reflects the changing consumer behavior and spending patterns [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The "New Four Bulls" market trend is expected to gradually unfold along an upward trajectory, with the market center gradually rising, maintaining a "slow bull" pattern through 2026 [2]. - Key investment themes will revolve around technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and resource security, with opportunities identified in AI, semiconductors, computers, primary products, precious metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The U.S. is projected to be in a rate-cutting cycle over the next two to three years, while China is expected to implement a dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies, creating a favorable external environment [3]. - By 2026, China's monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a potential 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and continued interest rate cuts [3]. - The easing monetary policy is expected to positively impact macroeconomic stability and capital markets, supporting growth, employment, and expectations [3]. Group 4: Saudi-China Investment Cooperation - The Saudi stock exchange is focused on deepening capital cooperation opportunities between Saudi Arabia and China, enhancing connectivity [3]. - China's direct investment in Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing, indicating a growing partnership in both scale and strategic depth [3]. - The Saudi stock exchange has signed memorandums of understanding with Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges to promote bilateral capital flow [5].