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对二甲苯:供应边际宽松,月差大幅回落,PTA:趋势偏弱,月差关注正套,MEG:单边趋势仍偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trends of PX, PTA, and MEG are all偏弱. PX is recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage and shorting PXN on rallies; PTA is suggested for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels; MEG is also recommended for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, with a downward - driven unilateral trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - As the August 8 deadline for the peace agreement approaches, the impact of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia is uncertain. Trump deployed two nuclear - powered submarines on August 1 in response to a "highly provocative statement" by a Russian senior official. If secondary sanctions or tariffs are implemented, 4 million barrels per day of oil could be removed from the market, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel [3][5]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6812, 4744, 4405, 6444, and 527.9 respectively, with daily price changes of - 1.67%, - 1.33%, - 0.20%, - 0.31%, and - 0.64% [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The previous day's closing prices of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 were 22, - 38, - 34, - 64, and 4.6 respectively, with daily price changes of - 42, - 6, - 7, - 6, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 845.67 dollars/ton, 4740 yuan/ton, 4480 yuan/ton, 603.88 dollars/ton, and 71.39 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily price changes of - 13.66, - 86, - 12, - 7.12, and - 1.31 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The previous day's spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 247.33, 192.91, 137.95, - 0.61, and - 6.01 respectively, with daily price changes of - 10.7, 7.72, 21.83, 26.76, and 0 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a "weak - biased" trend [5]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In August, there are no new PX maintenance plans, but some units are set to restart, while PTA device operating rates are expected to decline. PX supply - demand turns to a loose pattern, and the short - term suggestion is to short on rallies [5]. - **PTA**: The polyester factory operating rate is at a low level, and the willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. PTA factories sell at high - low basis, and the 09 contract has a bearish situation. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels [6]. - **MEG**: From a valuation perspective, the impact on the black sector is fading, and the overall valuation of coal - chemical industry is falling. The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, while being vigilant about the long - squeeze situation [7].
聚酯数据周报-20250803
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 09:19
Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250731
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily investment analysis and trading strategies for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost end has a significant increase, suggest a rolling long - short spread strategy. With some device changes, the supply margin decreases, and it's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies [4][9]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost, suggest a long - short spread strategy. New device launches increase supply pressure. The basis is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is worth attention. Polyester production and sales have local surges, and the start - up rate may bottom out in the short term [4][9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, suggest a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Port inventory is decreasing, but the 09 contract has delivery pressure. Consider shorting MEG and going long on L [4][10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a range. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have declined. The tire industry has high inventory and low start - up rate due to weak demand [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest of butadiene rubber have decreased. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the port and production enterprise inventories of butadiene have declined significantly, providing valuation support [15][16][17]. Asphalt - It follows the strong trend of crude oil with small - step increases. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate have decreased. The capacity utilization rate, device maintenance volume, and shipment volume of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt have changed [18][26][31]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has a partial small increase. Macroscopically, pay attention to the trade - war risk in August. The cost is supported by crude oil, but the supply pressure is increasing [32][33]. PP - The spot market fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is light. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The production enterprise price is mostly stable, and the downstream is cautious [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Pay attention to the delivery pressure. The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price in Shandong are provided. The market is in the off - season, with insufficient upward momentum but strong cost support. The 08 - contract warehouse receipts may impact the market [39][40][41]. Pulp - It is expected to move weakly in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high port inventory and weak demand in the paper market [44][46]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The spot price in different regions is stable, and the market shipment is average [49][50]. Methanol - It is under pressure and moves in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The spot price has a partial increase, but the futures decline in the afternoon weakens the market atmosphere [53][56]. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The enterprise inventory has increased due to weak domestic demand and less - than - expected exports [58][59]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The futures price has increased, and the non - integrated and integrated profits have decreased. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage, and it's recommended to short styrene [61][62]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The enterprise device load is increasing, and downstream demand is average, with the market expected to be stable and fluctuate in the short term [63]. PVC - It is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price and the basis are provided. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high production, high inventory, and limited improvement from the anti - involution policy [65][66][67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it is still strong in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price shows a strong range movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to rise [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions in the 10 - contract. The futures price of different contracts and the freight index of different routes are provided. The freight index of European and US - West routes has different changes, and the shipping capacity data is also presented [72].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250718
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:06
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - PX, PTA follow cost fluctuations; MEG has low inventory, and it's advisable to take long - short spreads when the price difference is low. Rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to be strong in a volatile market; asphalt will fluctuate within a range. Caustic soda has strong demand support and there are still expectations for the peak season. Pulp is expected to be strong in a volatile market; glass prices are stable. Methanol and urea will run in a short - term volatile state; styrene will be weak and volatile. Soda ash has little change in the spot market; LPG has effective cost support and may rebound in the short term. Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak. Short - fiber will be in a short - term volatile market; bottle - chip will be volatile in the short term, with a strategy of going long on PR and short on PF. Offset printing paper will run in a volatile state; pure benzene will be weak and volatile [2][11][12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6742,涨跌幅26;PTA主力昨日收盘价4714,涨跌幅0.17%;MEG主力昨日收盘价4372,涨跌幅0.48%。PX9 - 1昨日收盘价134,前日收盘价98;PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价66,前日收盘价50;MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价17,前日收盘价2 [5]. - **Market News**: An East China refinery reduced its PX load due to a fault; crude oil futures weakened on July 17. PTA device load increased to 79.7% by Thursday; MEG overall start - up load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% as of July 17, with a decline of 1.37% compared to the previous period. A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement [5][6][9]. - **View and Suggestion**: The market is concerned about the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. PX supply is still tight. Avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. Pay attention to the compression of long - term PXN positions. PTA should also avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. For MEG, it's expected to be strong in a volatile market, and take long - short spreads when the price difference is low [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber main contract's daily closing price was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the night - session closing price was 14,885 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The trading volume was 333,832 lots, an increase of 99,586 lots; the open interest was 151,500 lots, an increase of 2,850 lots [15]. - **Industry News**: Rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas has intensified short - term supply disruptions, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has risen significantly. In May 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world were 149,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 11.22%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 732,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the trading volume was 69,387 lots, an increase of 11,938 lots; the open interest was 18,411 lots, a decrease of 2,292 lots [18]. - **Industry News**: The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the short term, synthetic rubber will follow the rubber sector and be strong in a volatile market, but the fundamentals of its own industrial chain still face significant pressure [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt - **Market Data**: BU2508's closing price was 3,649 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price was 3,663 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. BU2509's closing price was 3,628 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the night - session closing price was 3,643 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [22]. - **Market News**: From July 11 - 17, 2025, China's weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4%; a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons, an increase of 16.5%. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0% compared to July 14. The inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.827 million tons, an increase of 0.3% compared to July 14 [36]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The 09 - contract futures price was 2,484 yuan/ton; the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton; the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton; the basis was 141 [37]. - **Market News**: The price of the caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The high - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but the sales at high prices are not good after the price increase. The sales of low - concentration caustic soda at high prices have slowed down [38]. - **View**: Caustic soda is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient upward momentum, but it has strong cost support due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. It's advisable to take long - short spreads for the 10 - 1 contracts [39]. 3.6 Pulp - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the night - session closing price was 5,318 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan. The trading volume was 180,569 lots, an increase of 20,629 lots; the open interest was 141,751 lots, a decrease of 1,682 lots [44]. - **Industry News**: The average price of the imported pulp market has risen slightly this period. The supply - side port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas offer is declining; the downstream paper mill's start - up rate is stable and low, and the procurement is only for rigid restocking [45][47]. 3.7 Glass - **Market Data**: The closing price of FG509 was 1,092 yuan/ton, up 2.06%. The trading volume was 1,832,573 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,105 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 22 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 76 yuan [49]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass market remains stable with minor fluctuations. The selling prices in some Shahe markets have slightly declined, and the demand sustainability is uncertain [49]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 449,450 lots, an increase of 539 lots; the open interest was 653,886 lots, a decrease of 196 lots [52]. - **Market News**: The port methanol market fluctuated slightly this period. The traditional downstream demand in the port area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The inland methanol market showed regional differentiation [54]. - **View**: Methanol is expected to run in a short - term volatile state. The supply has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand has also weakened, with MTO having a neutral - to - low profit and traditional demand declining [54]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,743 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume was 137,230 lots, an increase of 10,358 lots; the open interest was 198,012 lots, an increase of 379 lots [56]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. In the short term, domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing a volatile trend [57]. 3.10 Styrene - **Market Data**: Styrene2507 was 7,260 yuan/ton; Styrene2508 was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; Styrene2509 was 7,221 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [59]. - **Market News**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, while the supply of styrene has increased and the demand has decreased. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly a short - position allocation. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation phase [60]. 3.11 Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The closing price of SA2509 was 1,225 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The trading volume was 1,359,320 lots, and the open interest decreased by 39,415 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 25 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 46 yuan [63]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market is running steadily and lightly, with flexible price transactions. The soda ash production device is running stably, and the production is at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the transactions are mainly based on demand [63]. 3.12 LPG - **Market Data**: The closing price of PG2508 was 4,078 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; the night - session closing price was 4,080 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The closing price of PG2509 was 3,985 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the night - session closing price was 3,992 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [66]. - **Market News**: On July 16, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for August: propane was 549 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; butane was 519 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The expected Saudi CP for September: propane was 548 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; butane was 518 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton [73]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of FU2509 was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of FU2510 was 2,878 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The closing price of LU2509 was 3,580 yuan/ton, down 1.38%; the closing price of LU2510 was 3,576 yuan/ton, down 1.75% [76]. - **View**: Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [76]. 3.14 Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Market Data**: The closing price of short - fiber 2508 was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of bottle - chip 2508 was 5,928 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [78]. - **Market News**: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber futures are in a volatile state. The factory offers are stable, and the discounts have been moderately increased. The polyester bottle - chip factory offers have been partially increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the market trading atmosphere is light [78][79]. 3.15 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Data**: The prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and other paper types in the Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged on July 17, 2025 [82]. - **Industry News**: The mainstream intended transaction price of high - white offset printing paper in the Shandong market is 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and that in the Guangdong market is 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton. The social orders are in the off - season, and the dealers' inventory - clearing progress is average [83]. 3.16 Pure Benzene - **Market Data**: BZ2603 was 6,122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 16.4 tons, down 1 ton; the styrene inventory in East China ports was 131,060 tons, up 1,640 tons [84]. - **News**: As of July 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 164,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.75% and a year - on - year increase of 272.73%. The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 24.22% compared to the previous period [85].
对二甲苯:跟随成本波动,PTA,跟随成本波动,MEG,低库存,月差逢低正套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:46
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Market focuses on Sanfangxiang's production progress, supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. Pay attention to long - term PXN compression positions. Supply - demand is stable in July, spreads are expected to be strong. Aromatics are overvalued relative to oil products, with declining blending margins and increasing oil product supply - demand pressure in Q4 [8]. - PTA: Market concerns include whether Sanfangxiang's production will be postponed due to low processing fees and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. In 01 contract, long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA. Supply increases while demand decreases, with Sanfangxiang's new PTA plant progress being a key factor [8]. - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants have reduced operations, potentially affecting future imports. Imports are expected to decline to 63 - 58 million tons per month from July to August. It is in a bullish - biased sideways market, and positive spreads in calendar spreads are recommended when spreads are low [9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - PX: An East China refinery reduced its load due to a fault, and Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical in China reduced the operating rate of its reforming and crude distillation units. Crude oil futures weakened on July 17, and the spot premium between September and October widened [2][3][5]. - PTA: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. By Thursday, the PTA load reached 79.7%, and the operating rate was around 85.8% [6]. - MEG: As of July 17, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.2% (down 1.37% from the previous period). A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement, expected to last about a month [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained mostly stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The overall polyester load was volatile, and the load in mainland China was around 88.5% [6]. Market Sales - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales on July 17 were still weak, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was average, with an average sales rate of 48% by 3:00 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. Their calendar spreads also showed price changes compared to the day before [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent had different prices and price changes on the previous day compared to the day before. Spot processing fees also had corresponding changes [2].
对二甲苯:单边震荡市,PTA:关注聚酯长丝工厂减产落地情况,月差反套,MEG:单边震荡市,月差逢低正套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 0. The recommended strategies are month - spread positive arbitrage and shorting PXN at high levels [1][7]. - PTA should be concerned about the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts, with a trend strength of 0. A month - spread reverse arbitrage operation is advised [1][7]. - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 1. The suggestions are to conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and not to chase short positions due to low valuation [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On July 9, the price of PX rose. One August Asian spot was traded at $855, and one September Asian spot was traded at $847. The end - of - day valuation was $850/ton, up $3 from the previous day. The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimate for August MOPJ is $594/ton CFR. However, the sentiment in the downstream PTA and polyester sectors remains weak [3]. - **PTA**: In China, on July 9, several major polyester yarn and fiber producers were discussing a new round of production cut, but no definite decision had been made as of that date [5]. - **MEG**: On July 9, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,347 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for late August was also 4,347 yuan/ton. The average spot price in the Ningbo market was 4,362 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in the South China market was 4,365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Polyester**: On July 9, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately compared to the previous day, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 59%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [6]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of PTA is 0, also indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of MEG is 1, suggesting a slightly bullish view [7]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Conduct month - spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels. The supply - demand pattern of PX is tight due to the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and the planned maintenance of South Korea's Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant in August. PXN is at a high valuation and shows a weakening trend [7]. - **PTA**: Perform month - spread reverse arbitrage operations. The basis has dropped significantly, factories are selling, and traders' positive arbitrage positions are being stopped out. Supply will be marginally looser from mid - July, and it is expected that PTA will continue to accumulate inventory with increasing supply and decreasing demand [7]. - **MEG**: Due to the strong coal price at the cost end, relevant coal - chemical products have rebounded. With a low valuation, conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and avoid chasing short positions [7].
对二甲苯:地缘风险加剧,趋势走强,月差正套,PTA:地缘风险加剧,趋势走强,月差正套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:00
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections **Fundamental Tracking** - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - **Monthly Difference Changes**: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - **Inter - Variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - **Basis and Inventory Changes**: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. **Market Overview** - **Geopolitical Factor**: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. **Market Views** - **PX**: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - **PTA**: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].
对二甲苯:海内外供应偏紧,趋势走强,月差正套,PTA,成本支撑,基差月差正套,MEG,伊朗多套装置停车,短期偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:18
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to continue strengthening due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, resulting in tight domestic and imported supplies. A strategy of going long on PX and short on SC is recommended, and short - term positive spreads are expected as the PXN has significantly strengthened to $255 per ton [6]. - PTA is supported by cost factors, with both unilateral prices and spreads (monthly and basis) showing strength. Despite increased maintenance efforts by polyester bottle - chip and staple - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, leading to a significant strengthening of the basis [6]. - MEG is expected to be short - term bullish as Iranian ethylene glycol plants have shut down. A strategy of reducing the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG is suggested. Attention should be paid to the start - up and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: On June 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had daily price increases of 3.1%, 2.8%, 1.6%, 2.1%, and 3.0% respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The daily changes in the monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 on June 18 were 10, 4, 14, - 22, and - 5 respectively [1]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The daily changes in the inter - variety spreads such as PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 18 showed different trends, with values like - 6, 61, etc. [1]. - **Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PX - naphtha spread on June 18 were - 212, 90, 3, 40, etc. respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The daily change in PX warehouse receipts on June 18 was - 5, while the warehouse receipts of other varieties remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On June 18, the PX price rose. Two Asian spot transactions in August were made at $897 and $896 respectively. The PX valuation was $888 per ton, up $4 from the 17th. A 134 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East postponed its restart, another 142 - million - ton PX plant shut down due to war, and a 40 - million - ton PX plant in South Korea was restarting. The PX - naphtha spread widened to $255 per ton, up $14 from a week ago [3][4]. - **PTA**: On June 18, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened compared with the 17th, and the spot basis first rose and then fell. The mainstream spot basis was 09 + 293 [5]. - **MEG**: A 44 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Canada restarted, and a 46 - million - ton/year plant will restart this weekend. A 90 - million - ton/year plant in the Northeast restarted and increased its load. From June 16 - 22, the planned arrival at major ports was about 10.0 million tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On June 18, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally average, with an estimated average sales rate of 5 - 6% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [7]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250523
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:47
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]
对二甲苯:月差正套,加工费扩张,PTA:需求预期好转,月差持续走强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:24
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: Adopt strategies of going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on PX and short on EB. Due to the maintenance of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the reduced load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, supply decreases, leading to a significant jump in PXN [7]. - PTA: Implement a positive spread strategy. In terms of supply - demand, PTA's supply decreases while demand increases, continuing the de - stocking pattern [7]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong, and exit the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct positive spread operations on basis and calendar spread. Due to the unexpected shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene unit, the maintenance of its 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol unit is advanced, expected to last for one month. Supply is expected to decrease by 150,000 tons per month, and the de - stocking intensity from May to June will increase. On the demand side, after the tariff reduction, the operating rate of MEG's downstream polyester factories will increase again due to the recovery of terminal orders, with the expected high of the operating rate raised to 95% [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Changes**: On May 13, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main contract closing prices were 6708, 4750, 4349, 6496, and 3541 respectively, with daily changes of 0.8%, 0.8%, 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.7% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09's values on May 13 were 148, 148, 40, 26, and - 609 respectively, with daily changes of 66, 22, 17, 4, and - 195 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: For PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07's processing margin on the futures market, and PTA09 - LU09, their values on May 13 were 390, 401, - 1664, 840, and 1314 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 7, - 22, 6, and 35 [1]. - **Basis and Other Data**: On May 13, PX, PTA, MEG, and PF's basis were 312, 195, 125, and - 96 respectively; PX - naphtha spread was 271. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC's warehouse receipts were 81164, 11755, 2727, 1810, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 7590, 100, 140, 916, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On May 13, Asian PX prices soared. Platts evaluated the daily average of Asian PX to increase by 60.67 dollars/ton to 846 dollars/ton CFR Unv1/China. The market sentiment was boosted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the US and China for 90 days. An East - China 1.6 - million - ton PX unit reduced its load to 60% operation, expected to last 7 - 10 days, and another large PX factory in East China reduced its load due to catalyst replacement in the previous process [3]. - **PTA Market**: On May 13, PTA futures fluctuated upward. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, mainly among traders, with more bids from polyester factories, and the spot basis strengthened. Mainstream suppliers offered June's goods [5]. - **MEG Market**: A 360,000 - ton/year MEG unit restarted. Two MEG units with a total capacity of 1.8 million tons/year temporarily shut down, and a 1.8 - million - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol enterprise's one line started maintenance on May 12 [5]. - **Polyester Market**: The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 58% as of 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament showed high - low differentiation, with an estimated average of over 50% as of 3:30 pm. On May 12, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament had a late - day surge, with an estimated average of over 510% [6].