投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 铁矿石 后市高位震荡 （2026 年 1 月 7 日） 去年 12 月中旬以来，铁矿石期现价格呈现出震荡上行态势，主力合约期价突破近五个月的震荡 区间上沿，且刷新阶段性价格新高；相应的现货价格同样高位运行，普氏铁矿石价格指数收于 105.80 美元/吨，港口现货价格表现同样偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 短期利多支撑矿价 12 月中旬铁矿石价格整体表现要明显强于其他黑色品种，螺矿比、焦矿比继续位于年内低位， 当前支撑矿价主要源于以下几方面因素。首先，现货结构性矛盾未解，国内 47 港库存虽突破 1.67 亿吨水平，但因部分主流现货品种交易受限，可用品种库存降至极低水平，因而总量矛盾对盘面影 响并未兑现。其次，近期资源品相关品种走势偏强，尤以铜、白银表现最为强势，而黑色金属中铁 矿石金融属性最强，为此资源品上涨也提振矿价。第三，品种套利逻辑支撑，当前黑色持仓依旧呈 现多配铁矿石、空配其他品种的格局，同样利好矿价走势。最后，钢厂补库预期在兑现，钢厂厂内 库存连续两周增加，且港口现货成交同样放量，带来铁矿 ...

2026 年 1 月 7 日 生猪：仍存累库行为 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12980 | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 12850 | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12760 | -100 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11810 | 150 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 12255 | | 145 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12940 | 140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 ...

2026年01月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 硅铁：结算电价下移，价格偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪浓厚，等待钢招落地 | 5 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | 797.0 | 7.5 | 0. 95% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 618. 77 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 31 日 LPG：1 月 CP 高位出台，夜盘补涨 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,195 | 0.84% | 4,208 | 0.31% | | | PG2602 | 4,097 | 1.26% | 4,181 | 2.05% | | | PL2601 | 6,010 | 2.16% | 5,940 | -1.16% | | | PL2602 | 5,771 | 0.54% | 5,817 | 0.80% | | | PL2603 | 5,793 | 0.21% | 5,830 | 0.64% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 1,634 | 709 | 1,432 | -862 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2602 | 72,850 | 14702 | 62,659 | -5230 | | | PL2601 | ...

LPG：短期供应偏紧，关注下行驱动兑现 丙烯：现货供需收紧，存止跌反弹预期 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2601 | 4,238 | 0.07% | 4,201 | -0.87% | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,080 | 0.10% | 4,084 | 0.10% | | | PL2601 | 5,994 | 0.49% | 5,964 | -0.50% | | | PL2602 | 5,769 | 0.09% | 5,764 | -0.09% | | | PL2603 | 5,793 | 0.36% | 5,794 | 0.02% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 2,292 | 1091 | 2,409 | -746 | | 持 仓&成 交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

Report Title - LPG: Short-term Firmness, Long-term Pressure; Propylene: Spot Weakness [1][2] Market Data Futures Prices - PG2601 closed at 4,221 with a daily gain of 0.86% and a night session close of 4,235 with a 0.33% gain [2] - PG2602 closed at 4,082 with a 1.27% daily gain and a night session close of 4,088 with a 0.15% gain [2] - PL2601 closed at 5,890 with a -0.57% daily change and a night session close of 5,951 with a 1.04% gain [2] - PL2602 closed at 5,740 with a 1.76% daily gain and a night session close of 5,776 with a 0.63% gain [2] - PL2603 closed at 5,758 with a 2.24% daily gain and a night session close of 5,775 with a 0.30% gain [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2601 had a trading volume of 2,615, a decrease of 5,292 from the previous day, and an open interest of 3,696, a decrease of 1,319 [2] - PG2602 had a trading volume of 59,892, a decrease of 59,076, and an open interest of 71,590, a decrease of 3,268 [2] - PL2601 had a trading volume of 317, an increase of 97, and an open interest of 890, a decrease of 211 [2] - PL2602 had a trading volume of 6,682, a decrease of 4,091, and an open interest of 7,431, a decrease of 471 [2] - PL2603 had a trading volume of 24,928, a decrease of 244, and an open interest of 17,231, a decrease of 1,053 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG01 contract was 279, compared to 295 the previous day [2] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG01 contract was 379, compared to 375 the previous day [2] - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -185, compared to -114 the previous day [2] - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -40, compared to -74 the previous day [2] - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -65, compared to -99 the previous day [2] Industry Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.0%, up from 72.9% last week [2] - The MTBE operating rate was 68.9%, down from 69.8% [2] - The alkylation operating rate was 36.8%, down from 39.5% [2] Market Trends - LPG trend intensity is 0; propylene trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6] Market News - On December 24, 2025, the January CP paper cargo for propane was $510/ton, up $1/ton from the previous day; butane was $501/ton, unchanged. The February CP paper cargo for propane was $505/ton, up $3/ton [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH plant maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting on May 12, 2023, and others with various start times and undetermined end times [8] - There are also domestic LPG plant maintenance plans, such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation) starting on January 3, 2025, and others with specific start and end times and loss volumes [9]

2025 年 12 月 23 日 LPG：外盘成本偏强 丙烯：供需存收紧预期，短期走势存支撑 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 期货研究 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2601 | 4,280 | 1.47% | 4,248 | -0.75% | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,125 | 0.63% | 4,116 | -0.22% | | | PL2601 | 5,886 | -0.67% | 5,905 | 0.32% | | | PL2602 | 5,682 | -0.58% | 5,710 | 0.49% | | | PL2603 | 5,647 | -0.84% | 5,705 | 1.03% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 7,697 | -528 | 7,902 | ...

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪交织博弈，走势宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 781.5 | 1.5 | 0. 19% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹产量小幅回升，低供应格局未变，给予钢价支撑，但短流程钢 厂利润尚可，供应存回升预期，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求低位弱稳运行，高频需求指 标虽环比增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游行业并未好转，需求延续季节性弱势，继而承压钢 价。目前来看 ...