| | | 今日盘面有所回落。本周螺纹表需有所回暖，产量继续回落，库存小幅下降。热卷需求回落，产量继续上升，库存重新累积。 高炉快速复产，铁水维持高位，不过吨钢利润欠佳制约进一步复产空间，关注唐山等地环保限产推进情况。从8月数据看，地产 投资降幅扩大，基建、制造业增速继续放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。随着美联储降息落地，市场乐观情绪降 温，在"反内卷"扰动下，盘面下方仍有支撑，关注市场风向及旺季建材需求环比改善力度。 | MILIA | 三以下 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月18日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證件 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a differentiated performance, with rebar likely to continue reducing production and hot-rolled coils likely to resume production. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to peak-season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply side is supported by policies, but the upside potential is restricted by steel demand and profit. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [9][11]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter and market expectation fluctuations, despite the potential recovery of domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [12][14]. - For ferroalloys, silicon iron may rebound in the short term but is under high - supply pressure, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term due to cost support and supply - demand pressure [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Relevant Information - The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi magazine emphasizes the governance of low - price disorderly competition in enterprises and the withdrawal of backward production capacity [2]. - In early September, key steel enterprises produced 20.87 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.087 million tons, a 7.2% increase from the previous period. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions have changed, with rebar in Shanghai up 20 yuan to 3240 yuan, and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai up 10 yuan to 3410 yuan [2]. Logical Analysis - Affected by positive news, the black - metal sector rose sharply in the night session. Last week, the pig - iron output recovered rapidly, rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar is expected to continue reducing production due to heavy losses, while hot - rolled coils are expected to resume production as they are still profitable. Rebar inventory is accumulating faster than last year, and its apparent demand is declining; hot - rolled coil inventory has started to decline, and its demand has improved significantly. Steel prices may face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not happen, but the decline may be limited due to pre - National Day restocking [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Relevant Information - In Inner Mongolia, 15 coal mines had monthly raw coal output exceeding the announced capacity by more than 10% from January to June 2025, including 3 coking coal mines with a total capacity of about 2.7 million tons. One of them has been shut down for rectification. In Tangshan, some steel and coking enterprises have received notices of environmental protection production restrictions [7]. - The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions are provided, such as the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Rizhao Port is 1591 yuan/ton [8]. Logical Analysis - Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be restricted, and it is difficult to return to the high level of the first half of the year. Although imported coal can provide some supplements, the upside potential of coking coal prices is restricted by steel demand and profit [9][11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Considering the recent significant increase, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a long - position strategy on dips in the long term [11]. - Arbitrage: The long - January and short - May spread of coking coal can be held [11]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [11]. Iron Ore Relevant Information - In the US, industrial production and retail sales in August increased more than expected. The transaction area of new and second - hand housing in 10 key cities changed last week, with new housing up 4.4% month - on - month and down 5.3% year - on - year, and second - hand housing up 18.7% month - on - month and up 10.2% year - on - year. The inventory of iron ore in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 506,000 tons to 12.991 million tons from September 8th to 14th. The spot prices of some iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port increased, such as PB powder (60.8%) up 9 to 785 yuan [12]. Logical Analysis - In the third quarter, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand maintained high growth. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand may recover in September, iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels due to market expectation fluctuations [12][14]. Trading Strategies No trading strategies for iron ore are provided in the given text. Ferroalloys Relevant Information - On the 16th, the spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased, and the transaction prices of different varieties also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron increased by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of manganese silicon increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [16][17]. Logical Analysis - For silicon iron, the supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Market sentiment was boosted by anti - involution trading and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, but the high - supply pressure remains. For manganese silicon, the alloy factory output increased slightly, the demand side was under pressure, but the cost side was supported by low port inventory [16][17]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: For silicon iron, it may be strong in the short term but under high - supply pressure, with limited upside potential; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to conduct high - level spot hedging [16][17][18]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [18][20]. - Options: For silicon iron, sell straddle option combinations at high prices; for manganese silicon, wait and see [18][20].

正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 基本面偏弱、预期偏强，双焦上行仍受限 煤焦周度报告 20250915 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面先跌后涨，关注逢低做多机会；现货首轮提降落地，二轮提降开启 | | | 供给 | 前期停限产焦化厂基本复产，焦炭供应回升 | | | 需求 | 铁水大幅回升，钢厂按需采购；投机情绪一般，出口利润变动不大，建材现货日成交量低于历年同期 | | | 库存 | 全环节增库，总库存增加 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润震荡 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭01升水扩大，1-5价差继续走弱 | | | 总结 | 上周美国就业市场降温，美联储9月降息预期增强；国内反内卷仍不时推涨盘面；但受制于旺季需求特征不明显，钢材仍在累库，双焦供应在阅兵结束 后回升，现货需求偏弱，焦炭连续提降，基本面弱现实继续制约盘面向上。截至周五收盘，焦炭01合约涨0.56%至1625.5，焦煤01合约涨 ...

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen significant inflows, with over 2 billion yuan net inflow for 10 consecutive days and over 2.9 billion yuan in the last 20 days, reaching a total size of over 10 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in the cyclical sector [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that recent news regarding "anti-involution" and "checking overproduction" has positively impacted the long-term expectations for coal prices, suggesting substantial upside potential for coal stock valuations and earnings [1] - Guotai Junan Securities forecasts a rebound in coal prices, expecting that as national temperatures rise and considering inventory depletion, the next two months will be a critical verification period for the fundamentals [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to analyze the current supply situation and market sentiment in the Shanxi coal industry, particularly in light of recent policies aimed at reducing overproduction and labor costs [2][4]. - The investigation was conducted from August 12 to August 15, covering eight enterprises in Shanxi, including coal mines, coking plants, traders, and washing plants [3]. Group 2 - Supply issues: The 276-day work policy currently affects only a few coal mining groups, primarily aimed at reducing labor costs, differing from the 2016 policy. The impact of overproduction checks is minimal for now, with low likelihood of large-scale production cuts due to local economic pressures [5]. - Downstream sentiment: The spot market has cooled significantly in the past two weeks, with downstream buyers halting purchases due to high prices, leading to an accumulation of coal inventory [5]. - Market outlook: There is a general pessimism regarding future demand growth, with no significant reduction in supply expected. However, a price floor is anticipated, as supply-side policies are emerging, suggesting that prices will stabilize after a certain decline [5]. - Core conclusion: The coal mining sector has faced losses due to falling prices since last year, but the strategy has shifted to "quantity for price" rather than "price for quantity," indicating a potential structural change in coal supply dynamics [5]. Group 3 - Current situation in washing plants: Inventory levels for coking coal and thermal coal are low, with current stock at 60,000 tons of coking coal and 80,000 tons of thermal coal, compared to last year's normal levels of 100,000 tons for thermal coal and 70,000-80,000 tons for coking coal [8]. - Trade dynamics: The local market is experiencing a lack of purchasing activity, with coal mines facing inventory pressures and a shift in focus towards maintaining normal inventory levels [15]. - Reduction in production: There is skepticism regarding the strict enforcement of production cuts, with many coal mines continuing to operate normally despite the policies [14][15]. Group 4 - Coking plants' current situation: Coking coal inventory has fluctuated, with levels dropping from a peak of 15 days back to 10 days, indicating a responsive approach to market conditions [16]. - Trade merchants' perspective: The local market is stable, but there is no foundation for a bull market without corresponding demand growth, despite some price recovery in coking coal [13]. - Overall sentiment: The industry is currently in a phase of price stabilization, with expectations of a short-term oscillation in prices [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - The release of the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" indicates a tightening of safety supervision in the coal mining sector, with significant revisions made to the previous regulations [1]. - Recent trends show an increase in coal prices at ports, while international oil and gas prices have decreased [2]. - The operating rates of coking coal mines remain low, but the average daily pig iron output is at a high level compared to the same period last year [3]. - Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port and the Bohai Rim ports are at high levels compared to the same period last year [4]. - The report suggests that recent news regarding "anti-involution" and "checking overproduction" has positively impacted the medium to long-term expectations for coal prices, indicating significant upside potential for coal stocks [4]. Summary by Sections Safety Regulations - The new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" consist of 34 chapters and 777 articles, with 56 new articles added and 353 articles substantially revised, marking the most comprehensive revision to date [1]. Price Trends - Qinhuangdao Port's average price for thermal coal (5500 kcal) is 692 RMB/ton, up by 18 RMB/ton (+2.61%) week-on-week [2]. - The average price for thermal mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) is 547 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton (+0.74%) [2]. - Newcastle Port's thermal coal FOB price (5500 kcal) is 69 USD/ton, up by 2.05% [2]. Production and Utilization Rates - The capacity utilization rate for 462 thermal coal mines is 93.9%, up by 0.54 percentage points week-on-week but down by 1.57 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The operating rate for 523 coking coal mines is 83.7%, down by 0.19 percentage points week-on-week and down by 7.14 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Inventory Levels - As of August 15, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 5.67 million tons, up by 3.66% week-on-week and up by 5.78% year-on-year [4]. - Bohai Rim ports have a total coal inventory of 23.635 million tons, down by 4.15% week-on-week and down by 4.64% year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends accumulating shares of China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, with a focus on coking coal stocks such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [4].

Group 1: Production Expectations - The expectation of production restrictions in steel mills remains, with a recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizing the governance of disorderly competition rather than merely reducing capacity, leading to a cooling sentiment regarding "anti-involution" in the market [1] - Steel profits have reached a new high for the year as steel prices rise, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises at 68.4%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week-on-week, marking eight consecutive weeks of growth [1] - Rebar production was reported at 2.21 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons week-on-week, indicating strong production willingness among steel mills [1] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite seasonal impacts leading to a slight decline in terminal demand, overall demand remains resilient, with a week-on-week increase in rebar apparent consumption of 73,800 tons, totaling 2.11 million tons [2] - The total inventory of rebar reached 5.57 million tons, an increase of 103,900 tons week-on-week, but still at a low level compared to previous years [2] - The market has not yet seen a decline in steel exports due to tariff concerns, with July exports at 9.84 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cost Support - The impact of "anti-involution" on coking coal is becoming evident, with slow recovery in coal mine production following the end of the safety production month in June [3] - The utilization rate of coking coal mines was reported at 83.9%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week, indicating limited supply and ongoing checks on overproduction [3] - Despite the demand season being weak, the low inventory levels of rebar and tight coking coal supply provide cost support for steel prices, with expectations of a stable to slightly strong price trend as the market approaches the peak season [3]

Group 1: Production and Market Sentiment - The expectation of production restrictions in steel mills remains, with a recent meeting by the Central Political Bureau emphasizing the governance of disorderly competition rather than merely reducing capacity, leading to a cooling sentiment regarding "anti-involution" in the market [1] - Steel profits have reached a new high for the year due to rising steel prices, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises at 68.4%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week-on-week, marking eight consecutive weeks of growth [1] - Rebar production was reported at 2.2118 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons week-on-week, indicating strong production willingness among steel mills [1] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite seasonal impacts leading to a slight decline in terminal demand, overall demand remains resilient, with rebar apparent consumption at 2.1079 million tons, an increase of 73,800 tons week-on-week [2] - The total inventory of rebar was 5.5668 million tons, up 103,900 tons week-on-week, but still at a low level compared to previous years [2] - Concerns regarding tariffs affecting steel exports have not materialized, with steel exports in July 2025 reaching 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cost Support - The impact of "anti-involution" on coking coal is becoming evident, with slow recovery in coal mine production following safety inspections, and a decrease in the utilization rate of coking coal mines to 83.9%, down 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [3] - Coking coal supply remains constrained, limiting the potential for significant price declines, thus providing cost support for steel prices [3] - Although there may be resistance to rising rebar prices during the off-season, low inventory levels and the upcoming peak season in September and October suggest a balanced supply-demand scenario, with potential for early replenishment of demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as the anti - involution sentiment cools down, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. The supply of coking coal is affected by the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions in September, while the cost support for coke remains. On the demand side, steel mills have high profits and no production cuts, with rigid demand remaining high. For coking coal, the price is expected to run in a wide and strong range of 1030 - 1300. For coke, the price is expected to run in a wide and volatile range of 1600 - 1800 [5][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Frequent market news amplifies market sentiment. Policies such as the coal production inspection notice issued by the National Energy Administration in 2025 and the "276 - workday production plan" of Wanjie Coal Industry have affected the market [8][9] - **Coal Supply**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal increased year - on - year, but the daily output of sample mines decreased month - on - month. Although coal mine profits have improved and there is a possibility of increased production, the impact of the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [10] - **Coking Coal Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal decreased year - on - year but increased slightly month - on - month. The import volume of Mongolian, Australian, Russian, and Canadian coking coal all increased marginally [16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of sample mines and ports decreased, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased. The inventory has shifted downward, and the coking coal price is supported [26] - **Coke Supply**: From January to June 2025, the coke output increased year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of independent coking enterprises remained flat, while that of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Affected by the rising price of coking coal, the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk, and the market supply has tightened marginally [35] - **Coke Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of coke decreased year - on - year. Global economic slowdown and other factors suppress the export demand for coke, but the impact on the domestic market is small [44] - **Coke Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreasing significantly, that of steel enterprises decreasing slightly, and that of ports increasing. The inventory has shifted downstream, and the market has shifted to on - demand procurement [47] - **Iron Element Demand**: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of molten iron by steel enterprises remained high, and the consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years. The inventory of five major steel products was in the process of destocking. Although some steel mills had short - term maintenance, the overall production willingness of steel mills did not decline significantly [56] - **Iron Element Terminal Demand**: From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased year - on - year, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment increasing and real estate development investment decreasing. High - temperature and rainy weather and weak capital improvement restricted the recovery of demand. The apparent demand for rebar in August is expected to decline [64] - **Basis and Term Structure**: Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have fluctuated at low levels. The basis of coking coal and coke has fallen from high levels. For both, the contango structure has steepened, and cross - month arbitrage can conduct reverse arbitrage. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis strengthens [74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the near term [6]. Core Insights - Significant decrease in port coal inventories and sustained increase in thermal coal prices during the peak season. The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (5500 kcal weekly average) increased by 9 CNY/ton (+1.36%) this week, marking six consecutive weeks of upward movement. Port coal inventory at Qinhuangdao is now at 5.22 million tons, down 10.77% week-on-week, returning to normal levels for this time of year, suggesting a tightening supply-demand situation [1][2]. - The coal supply-demand structure is expected to continue improving due to policies aimed at reducing overproduction, which may support further price increases for port coal [1]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 658 CNY/ton, up 9 CNY/ton (+1.36%) week-on-week. The average price of mixed thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) is 510 CNY/ton, up 23 CNY/ton (+4.72%) [2]. Inventory Levels - As of August 1, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 5.22 million tons, down 10.77% week-on-week, and up 1.36% year-on-year. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports is 24.73 million tons, down 8.22% week-on-week, and up 0.64% year-on-year [4]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 61.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces is 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that recent policies aimed at reducing overproduction and the peak season for coal may lead to significant improvements in coal price expectations. It recommends stocks such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, with a particular focus on coking coal stocks like Lu'an Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [4].