Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, with the approaching new tapping season in the Southeast Asian main producing areas, the expectation of the rubber market's supply turning from tight to loose was quickly realized, suppressing the seasonal decline of rubber prices. The domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, while the synthetic rubber futures oscillated strongly driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The cumulative decline of the Shanghai Rubber Futures Contract 2605 was 1.87% to 16,835 yuan/ton; the cumulative decline of the Standard Rubber Futures Contract 2605 was 2.09% to 13,570 yuan/ton; and the cumulative increase of the Synthetic Rubber Futures Contract 2604 was 16.86% to 14,760 yuan/ton [7] - Historically, the probability of Shanghai Rubber Futures falling in March is about 80%, and the average decline is significantly higher than other months. In 2026, the phenological conditions in the Southeast Asian main producing areas are normal, and the global natural rubber supply is about to enter a continuous recovery channel. The short - term upward trend of Shanghai Rubber Futures may be maintained due to the rise in crude oil prices [7][60] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Spot price slightly declined, and basis premium widened - In the week of March 6, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 16,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis between the spot price and the Shanghai Rubber 2605 contract futures price maintained a slightly expanded premium, reaching a premium of 65 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Supply expectation strengthened, and rubber oscillated - Since March, with the approaching new tapping season in the Southeast Asian main producing areas, the expectation of the rubber market's supply turning from tight to loose became the core driving force for the seasonal decline of rubber prices. The domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, while the synthetic rubber futures oscillated strongly driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices [14][16] 2. The Global Rubber Market Supply and Demand Improved in the Third Quarter of 2025 2.1 The production and consumption of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries decreased slightly year - on - year - In December 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.1278 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 164,400 tons, with a decline of 12.72%. From January to December 2025, the total production was 11.5202 million tons, a slight decrease of 112,500 tons compared with the same period of the previous year, with a decline of 0.97%. The consumption in December 2025 was 956,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,400 tons, with a decline of 3.08%. From January to December 2025, the total consumption was 11.0672 million tons, a decrease of 141,200 tons compared with the same period of the previous year, with a decline of 1.26% [29] - In terms of production in different countries in 2025, the production of Thailand, China, India, Cambodia, and the Philippines increased slightly year - on - year, while that of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam decreased slightly year - on - year. In terms of exports, the total annual exports of Thailand and Indonesia increased slightly, while those of Malaysia and Vietnam decreased slightly [30][32][33] 2.2 China's rubber imports increased significantly in December 2025 - China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In December 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 953,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.62% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. Thailand and Vietnam were the main import sources [37] 2.3 The tire industry resumed work after the holiday, and the industry's operating rate increased significantly - In November 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings decreased slightly year - on - year. As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate may still increase slightly next week, but the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase [40] 2.4 The domestic heavy - truck sales decreased slightly year - on - year in February 2026 - In January 2026, the production and sales of automobiles showed different trends. The production of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased year - on - year, and the new - energy vehicle market ran smoothly. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers in February 2026 was 56.2%, above the boom - bust line. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decline of about 8%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [43][44] 2.5 The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, and the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased slightly - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber Futures increased significantly week - on - week, and the registered warehouse receipts also increased significantly. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.52%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.89% [58] 3. Conclusion - Historically, the probability of Shanghai Rubber Futures falling in March is about 80%. In 2026, the global natural rubber supply is about to enter a continuous recovery channel. The previous positive factors of the off - season have been fully realized, the downstream demand recovery is limited, and the inventory remains high. The sharp rise in international crude oil prices drives up the synthetic rubber price, which may weaken the downward pressure to some extent. In the short term, Shanghai Rubber Futures may maintain a strong pattern [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year, with production increasing by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons and demand growing by 1.7% to 15.6 million tons. The prices are likely to remain firm. [35] - The cost support for rubber prices is obvious in the short - term, and the trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday. However, there are concerns about the weak export market of tires due to unstable trade environment. [83] - The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future. It is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents the weekly - line trends of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber RU, NR, and synthetic rubber, as well as the spot price trends of whole - milk RU, Thai raw material acquisition prices, the spread trends between RU - NR and RU - BR, and the basis of synthetic rubber BR [6][9][11] 3.2 Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. In 2026, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons, with Thailand's production remaining stable and India's production continuing to decline. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 16.7% year - on - year, and Thailand's exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao is increasing. [29][35][38] - **Demand - side**: In 2025, China's rubber tire production increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 3.6% year - on - year. In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in production year - on - year and a decrease in sales year - on - year. The export of automobiles continued to grow. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in January 2026 increased by 38.6% year - on - year. [49][52][60] - **Production and inventory of synthetic rubber**: In 2025, China's synthetic rubber production decreased by 20.3% year - on - year. [77] 3.3 Market Outlook - The overseas natural rubber production areas are in the seasonal supply off - season, and the cost support for rubber prices is obvious. The trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday, but there are concerns about the weak tire export market. The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future, and it is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber market in 2026 is expected to face a supply - demand imbalance for the sixth consecutive year, with production growth lower than expected due to various factors such as adverse weather and diseases [17] - The performance and trends of different types of rubber (RU, NR, BR) are affected by multiple factors including inventory changes, production rates, and international market data [3][8][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions 26 - 02 - 27 - RU主力05合约报收17080点，下跌45点或0.26%，销地WF报收17000 - 17100元/吨等 [1] - NR主力完成换月，05合约报收13865点，下跌45点或0.32%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收200.2点，下跌0.6点或0.30%等 [1] - BR主力完成换月，05合约报收12760点，下跌40点或1.31%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12600元/吨等 [2] 26 - 02 - 26 - RU主力05合约报收17315点，上涨75点或0.44%，销地WF报收17150 - 17250元/吨等 [6] - NR主力04合约报收14055点，上涨75点或0.54%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收201.7点，上涨1.1点或0.55%等 [6] - BR主力04合约报收12880点，下跌240点或1.83%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12800 - 12900元/吨等 [7] 26 - 02 - 25 - RU主力05合约报收17180点，上涨150点或0.88%，销地WF报收16850 - 16950元/吨等 [11] - NR主力04合约报收13930点，上涨135点或0.98%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收200.4点，上涨2.1点或1.06%等 [11] - BR主力04合约报收13115点，下跌45点或0.34%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12800 - 12900元/吨等 [12] 26 - 02 - 24 - RU主力05合约报收16315点，下跌135点或0.82%，日胶主连报收354.5点，节中累计上涨7.4点或2.1%等 [16] - NR主力04合约报收1380点，下跌190点或1.42%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收193.8点，节中累计上涨2.0点或1.0%等 [16] - BR主力04合约报收12590点，下跌190点或1.49%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12500 - 12600元/吨等 [17] Important Information - In January 2026, EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 units. The share of pure - electric vehicles reached 19.3%, hybrid vehicles 38.6%, and the combined share of gasoline and diesel cars dropped to 30.1% [2] - In 2025, US tire imports totaled 28,615 million units, up 4.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 15%, while those from Thailand increased by 10% [7] - In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) were 21.4 million tons, down 10% year - on - year. Exports to China were 7.7 million tons, down 13% [12] - The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber market in 2026 will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year. Production in 2026 is expected to grow by 2.4% to 1,520 million tons [17] Logical Analysis - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities; domestic dry - rubber inventory has been rising for 4 months to 129.7 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [3] - In January, the domestic auto inventory warning index reached 59.4% for 3 consecutive months, slightly positive for commodities; in December 2025, ANRPC member countries' total production decreased for 2 consecutive months to 1093 million tons, down 10.5% year - on - year [8] - As of the Spring Festival holiday, SHFE RU contract inventory was 12.46 million tons, higher than inventory futures (warehouse receipts) by 1.20 million tons; INE NR contract inventory decreased by 0.4% to 5.26 million tons, down 19.6% year - on - year [18] Trading Strategies 26 - 02 - 27 - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for RU 05 contract; wait and see for NR04 contract, pay attention to the support at 13720 points; try to go long on NR 05 contract with a stop - loss at 13780 points [3] - Arbitrage: Reduce and hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 130 points [3] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] 26 - 02 - 26 - Unilateral: Hold long positions on RU 05 contract with a stop - loss at 17000 points; try to go long on NR 04 contract with a stop - loss at 13740 points [8] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 175 points with a stop - loss at + 130 points [8] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] 26 - 02 - 25 - Unilateral: Try to go long on a small scale for RU 05 contract with a stop - loss at 16970 points; hold a wait - and - see attitude for NR 04 contract [13] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 155 points with a stop - loss at + 120 points [13] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] 26 - 02 - 24 - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for RU 05 contract, pay attention to the support at 16020 points; hold short positions on NR 04 contract with a stop - loss at 13310 points [18] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 120 points with a stop - loss at + 90 points [18] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber market is expected to face a supply - demand imbalance for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with demand growth in China, Europe, and the US expected to recover moderately [2] - The production of domestic butadiene has increased in the past 4 weeks, and the warehouse receipts of the BR contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have significantly increased [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The BR main 04 contract closed at 12,590 points, down 190 points or 1.49%. In Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber was priced at 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and private cis - butadiene rubber was 12,200 - 12,300 yuan/ton. In the East China market, Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, and in the South China region, Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber was 12,500 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Shandong's Fushun Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was priced at 12,800 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and butadiene in Shandong was 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [1] - **RU/NR Natural Rubber**: The RU main 05 contract closed at 16,315 points, down 135 points or 0.82%. The Japanese rubber main continuous contract closed at 354.5 points, up 7.4 points or 2.1% during the festival. The WF in the sales area was priced at 16,150 - 16,200 yuan/ton, and the Vietnamese 3L blend was 16,700 yuan/ton. The NR main 04 contract closed at 1,380 points, down 190 points or 1.42%. The Singapore TF main 05 contract closed at 193.8 points, up 2.0 points or 1.0% during the festival. The Thai standard near - port shipments were priced at 1,960 - 1,980 US dollars/ton, Thai blends near - port shipments were 1,960 - 1,980 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - denominated mixed rubber spot was 15,250 - 15,300 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) stated that with the accelerated growth of the automotive industry in emerging and developed economies, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. Global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. Demand growth in China, Europe, and the US is expected to moderately recover in 2026, influenced by factors such as rising new - car registrations in the EU, expected increases in US tire shipments, trade agreements between the EU and India and between the US and India covering rubber products, and China's continuous incentives for electric vehicle purchases [2] Logical Analysis - As of the pre - holiday period, domestic butadiene production has increased for 4 consecutive weeks to 459,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The warehouse receipts of the BR contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 30.5% to 16,980 tons, and the factory warehouse receipts increased by 3.5% to 22,330 tons, with a total of 39,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9%. In January, domestic butadiene production decreased to 497,800 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.7%, and the growth rate slowed down, slightly bullish for BD [3] Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Wait and see for the BR main 04 contract, and pay attention to the support at the recent low of 12,530 points [3] - **Arbitrage (long - short)**: Wait and see [3] - **Options**: Wait and see [3]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rubber futures in China initially rose due to better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data but later retreated as positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton. With the previous positive factors realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [5][14][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot price slightly declined, and basis discount converged** - In the week of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis between the spot price of SCRWF and the futures price of the RU2605 contract was at a discount of 185 yuan/ton, and the degree of discount slightly converged [9]. - **1.2 Positive factors digested, and rubber prices rose first and then fell** - Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data, domestic rubber futures rose initially. However, as the positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected, rubber prices gave back their gains. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement in Q3 2025 - **2.1 Output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries increased slightly year - on - year, and consumption decreased slightly year - on - year** - From May to November, rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China and Southeast Asian countries are in the peak tapping season. In November 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.1677 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0057 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0674 million tons (a decline of 5.46%). From January to November 2025, the total production was 10.3887 million tons, a slight increase of 0.0482 million tons (an increase of 0.47%) compared with the same period last year. In November 2025, the total rubber consumption of ANRPC member countries was 0.9116 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0112 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons (an increase of 1.22%). From January to November 2025, the total consumption was 9.9974 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2243 million tons (a decline of 2.19%) compared with the same period last year. Due to normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and weakening global demand, the rubber market supply - demand structure is weakening, and rubber prices may face pressure in the future [26][30]. - **2.2 China's rubber imports increased significantly in November 2025** - China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In November 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to November 2025, the total import was 7.572 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5% [33]. - **2.3 Growth rate of domestic tire production slowed down, and industry operating rate declined slightly** - In November 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion pieces, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the first half of the year. As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [36]. - **2.4 China's auto production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in 2025** - In 2025, China's auto production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. Passenger vehicle production and sales were 30.27 million and 30.103 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. Commercial vehicle production and sales were 4.261 million and 4.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. Auto exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The logistics prosperity index in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of the heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, with 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [40][41]. - **2.5 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts increased significantly, and Qingdao Bonded Area inventory increased slightly** - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the SHFE rubber futures inventory increased significantly week - on - week, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 3,900 tons to 108,390 tons compared with the week of January 9. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (a growth rate of 4.48%). The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons (a growth rate of 3.80%), and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [57]. 3.3 Conclusion - Currently, the natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China are in the non - tapping season, and the supply pressure of domestic whole latex has significantly decreased. However, Southeast Asia has not entered the low - production season, and supply pressure still exists. The domestic auto production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. However, the crude oil price has given back its geopolitical premium, and the correction of the energy - chemical sector has dragged down the high - level adjustment of rubber futures. As the previous positive factors are gradually realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic for long positions is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The low inventory at the exchange also supports long positions. The main reasons for short positions are the current dull demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff - adding policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [14] - The EU's Zero - Deforestation Act (EUDR) postponement will lead to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative for demand. [11] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The raw material supply is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In mid - November, with the expiration of rubber warehouse receipts, an expected 10 - 110,000 tons will be out of storage, significantly reducing the rubber inventory and warehouse receipts at the exchange. Low inventory is likely to attract long - position attention. [10] - On November 28th, news reported that the EUDR was officially postponed, which is judged as a negative for demand. [10] - Thailand's rubber exports increased significantly year - on - year in October, exceeding market expectations, which is judged as a negative for supply. [10] - On December 5th, 2025, the market expected interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, which is positive for demand expectations. [10] - There will be continuous heavy rainfall in the main production areas of Thailand in mid - December. [10] - There are opportunities for short - term long - position trading in bands. [10] - December is still a season with relatively high demand such as winter storage, not the season when supply - demand margins deteriorate. [10] - The trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 is recommended, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, an irregular recommended cycle. If the future demand expectation improves, the price difference will widen, and repeated band operations are recommended. [19] 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. [52] - The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan. [52] - The cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [52] - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost decreases. [52] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and was below the farmers' cost for a long time. [26] - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. [30] - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 of 2020. [33] 3.4 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹, iron ore, Shanghai Composite Index, and ChiNext Index are generally normal, with no special or notable values. [41][44][48] 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 63.5% (0.17%), and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the expectation has weakened. [14] - The demand for medium - sized trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the future is expected to gradually recover, which affects the supporting tires. [61] - The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly. [64] 3.6 Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special or notable values. [69][73][76][79][83][86][89][93][97] - In September 2025, rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative production was 8,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33%. [99] - In September 2025, rubber exports were 864,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.61% and a month - on - month increase of 3.18%. The cumulative exports were 7,151,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.62%. [100] - In September 2025, rubber consumption was 921,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.08% and a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The cumulative consumption was 8,186,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. [100] 3.7 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - The total production capacity of butadiene in 2025 increased by 16% compared to 2024, with a total increase of 1.13 million tons. [18] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase supply, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The high import expectation of butadiene also exacerbates the weakness of its price. [18] - The operating conditions of various butadiene production plants are detailed, including start - up, shutdown, and production recovery times. [16] - The weekly average operating load of butadiene - related enterprises is 71.05%. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Considering the sufficient supply of private resources, lack of further driving factors on the cost side, the downstream's firm attitude to push down prices, and the continued pressure on the spot negotiation center, both the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises have increased The overall supply is expected to change little, while the downstream demand is likely to continue to push down prices The inventory increase of production and trading enterprises is expected to be limited in the short term The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to recover, but the increase will be restricted by some enterprises' maintenance plans The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,550 - 10,850 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton The main contract position was 38,986, a decrease of 6,617 The synthetic rubber 1 - 2 spread was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,350 tons, a decrease of 40 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Shanghai was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton The basis of synthetic rubber was -135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton Brent crude oil was 62.45 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars/barrel Naphtha CFR Japan was 567.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton Northeast Asian ethylene price was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged WTI crude oil was 58.64 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.68 US dollars/barrel The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 159,400 tons, unchanged The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.97%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points The port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.99%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 434 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, an increase of 270 tons The weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,540 tons, an increase of 660 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 69.19%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points; of full-steel tires was 63.33%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points The monthly output of full-steel tires was 12.42 million, a decrease of 720,000; of semi-steel tires was 51.68 million, a decrease of 8.57 million The inventory days of full-steel tires in Shandong were 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.29 days; of semi-steel tires were 45.23 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month-on-month and 13.64 percentage points year-on-year; that of full-steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points month-on-month and 2.68 percentage points year-on-year Some semi-steel tire sample enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate, while full-steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, leading to a recovery in capacity utilization [2] - In November, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 5.44% and a year-on-year increase of 8.43% The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year [2] - As of November 26, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month increase of 2.95% Most previously maintained butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered The supply of private resources was sufficient last week Under the influence of the lack of further driving factors on the cost side, the downstream's attitude to push down prices was firm, and the spot negotiation center continued to be under pressure The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises both increased [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released as of October 9, 2025. Subsequently, tracking macro - dynamics and weather conditions will be crucial price drivers [12]. - The rubber price is currently low, offering a good risk - reward ratio for long positions. If there are positive events, the rubber price is likely to rebound [12]. - The US tariff negative news on October 13, 2025, was beyond expectations and requires further observation [12]. - Currently, the driving factors for rubber price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate [12]. - The postponement of EUDR implementation is a short - term negative for demand, but the new proposal in October 2025 is a marginal positive with limited upside potential [13]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is considered a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [14]. - The market's long - side logic is mainly based on the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The short - side's main reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Drivers and Outlook**: The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released. The rubber price is low, and if there are positive events, it may rebound. Currently, the driving factors for price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate [12]. - **Policy Impact**: The US tariff news on October 13, 2025, was unexpected. The EUDR implementation was postponed again, which is a short - term negative for demand. The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [12][13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the demand for semi - steel tires for export to Europe has weakened. Thailand is still in the rainy season, and supply is easily affected. There are differences in medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a small increase and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 tons [16][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rubber price is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions on dips. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 (shorts can shift to RU2609) for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Seasonal Patterns**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japanese rubber, and the ratio of rubber to crude oil have shown certain trends. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31][37][40]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratios - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, and stock indices are generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern [48][51][55]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Cost Estimates**: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, related to the rubber price [61]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Tire Factory Operation**: The operating rates of tire factories show no significant special values. The demand for trucks and commercial vehicles is gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][71][75]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Supply Status**: The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern. The production and export data of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China are presented in detail, along with year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [81][85][97]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, new production capacity for butadiene is expected to increase by 113 tons, with a 16% increase in total capacity compared to 2024. This is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the National Day holiday, domestic rubber futures were affected by a weak supply - demand structure and weakening macro - sentiment, leading to a downward trend in rubber prices. During the holiday, the US federal government shutdown increased global financial market risk aversion, and although Typhoon "Medom" might bring a production - cut expectation, the industry's positive outlook could not counter the macro - bearish sentiment. After the holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: In the week of September 30, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,300 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract was at a discount of 730 yuan/ton, with the degree of discount slightly narrowing [10]. - **Futures price**: In the two trading days before the holiday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 dropped 2.84% to 15,030 yuan/ton; the standard rubber futures contract 2512 fell 2.81% to 12,100 yuan/ton; and the synthetic rubber futures contract 2512 declined 2.63% to 11,110 yuan/ton [6][15]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian producers**: In August 2025, ANRPC member countries produced 107.87 million tons of rubber, a month - on - month increase of 1.05 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 685.36 million tons, a 0.96% increase from the same period last year. Consumption in August was 89.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.42 million tons (4.68% decline). From January to August, total consumption was 717.51 million tons, a 3.60% decrease from the same period last year. In export, Thailand and Indonesia had significant year - on - year increases in the January - August period, while Malaysia and Vietnam had slight decreases [25][29]. - **China's imports**: In August 2025, China imported 66.4 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 million tons, a 19.03% increase from the same period last year [33]. - **Domestic tire market**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 9.1% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year increase. Semi - steel tire production was about 58.06 million pieces, and full - steel tire production was about 13.03 million pieces. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports were 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a 0.10 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a 0.03 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [36][37]. - **Domestic auto market**: In August 2025, China's auto production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, a 13% and 16.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. In the new - energy vehicle sector, production and sales in August were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, a 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, the auto dealer inventory warning index was 54.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year and down 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry index in September was 56.1%, a record high. In August, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 35% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative sales in the first 8 months were 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [40][41]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory decreased by 3,613 tons week - on - week, while the registered warehouse receipts increased by 390 tons. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory remained flat, and the general - trade inventory decreased by 1.18% [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, with an obvious short - term moving - average trend. It is expected that the contract will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [55].